It simplifies the interpretation of politics.
2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession ,Gail Tverberg
In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:
With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.
All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.
In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not...
The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.
Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down...
Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).
The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs...
High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall...
Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy...
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020...
With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service...
Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure...
Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.
The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well...
We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.
Tessa Lena had this interview removed by YouTube in 5 minutes flat. Dangerous...
Medicine under Attack: A Conversation with Dr. Meryl Nass This story is about Dr. Meryl Nass, a brilliant and courageous human being and a top medical doctor whom I had the honor of interviewing recently and who is currently under attack in a way that I thought was only possible in my old Soviet homeland—before my time.
Dr. Nass had her license suspended for "misinformation"
It is really strange. Like, really really strange.
Dr. Nass’ mainstream credentials are impeccable. Here is an excerpt from Dr. Nass’ pre-COVID bio:
Dr. Meryl Nass earned her BS in Biology from MIT and her MD from
the University of Mississippi in 1980. She is known for
expertise in anthrax, bioterrorism, anthrax vaccine and Gulf War
syndrome. She identified the first modern use of anthrax as a
biological weapon, which occurred in 1978 during the Rhodesian Civil
War. She has testified for seven Congressional committees on
bioterrorism, vaccines, the anthrax letters and Gulf War syndrome.
She has consulted for the Director of National Intelligence and the
World Bank on the prevention and mitigation of bioterrorism.
As you know. It must not be permitted: Ivermectin Could Destroy Justification For Lockdowns And Vaccine Mandates
From CNBC, "mainstream media":
It’s too soon to know if Covid’s omicron variant will hasten the end of the nearly two-year-long Covid-19 pandemic. But some experts say that when it comes to contagiousness, omicron could be the “most transmissible the virus can get.”
The reason: Due to “evolutionary constraints” on how many mutations and changes the virus can make, omicron could be “the ultimate version of this virus,” Dr. William Moss, executive director of the International Vaccine Access Center at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, tells CNBC Make It.
Studies show that omicron is more than four times as transmissible as Covid’s delta variant, and that it evades immunity better than delta. As long as the virus keeps spreading, Moss says, it’ll continue to mutate going forward, creating more variants down the road.
But those mutations will probably be like “sons of omicron,” he says — not so different that the virus can escape immunity from vaccines or previous omicron infections.
Sewage Surveillance Reveals Omicron Arrived In US Even Earlier Than Believed (And Is Disappearing Fast)
Bombshell: CDC Admits Natural Immunity Superior to Vaccinated Immunity Alone at Preventing Covid Hospitalizations & Deaths
Scottish data shows that the COVID-19 age-standardized case rate is highest among the two-dose vaccinated and lowest among unvaccinated! It further shows this trend of negative efficacy for the double-vaccinated persisting for hospitalizations and deaths.
The UK has well established mechanisms of gathering and collating public health data.
In recent months, a trend has been noted in the England and Wales all-cause mortality data, which has rung some alarm bells. Young males aged 15-19 have shown a rising death rate compared to the five-year average 2015-2019. At the same time, a large insurance company in the U.S. has reported a significant increase in deaths in the under 40s. This is obviously of concern, whatever the cause, but one possible factor which needs to be urgently excluded is any link to vaccine injury. The association between myocarditis and the mRNA vaccines, especially in younger age groups and in males, is already well established. It is particularly urgent as second doses and boosters are being rolled out, possibly putting adolescents at even higher risk, and at a time when the Omicron variant is much milder.
Members of HART, the Health Advisory and Recovery Team, have joined with other senior academics and health professionals to call for an immediate investigation into the increasing death rate amongst 15-19-year-old males since May of this year.
British Medical Journal Demands Immediate Release of All COVID-19 Vaccine, Treatment Data
Why is it this way? The "vaccine" study cut her out when she had an adverse reaction, and said she excluded herself. Nobody can record her data in the system, and she's taking the lead for a million Americans on this?
Over a Million People Were Injured by Covid Vaccines; One Woman Stands Up for Them When Utah pre-school teacher Brianne Dressen volunteered to be part of the AstraZeneca covid vaccine clinical trial, she thought she was doing her part “to get us out of the pandemic.”
Teacher Brianne Dressen recounts her horrifying and ongoing vaccine ordeal—and the coverup of adverse reactions by health officials, mainstream media, and the New England Journal of Medicine
They changed the UK data category from "fully vaccinated" (2-3) to "triple vaccinated", but it's the same story.
The vaccinated get more COVID infections per 100,000 in all but the "under 18" age group.
Breaking ranks in the EU?
Czech Republic Abolishes Plan To Mandate COVID-19 Vaccines
Adding some chance of a carrot to that big-stick threat...Austria Introduces COVID-19 Vaccination Lottery, Winners Get €500 In Vouchers
It was very noticeable when this week British military flights delivering weapons to Ukraine deliberately avoided German airspace - so much so that Berlin issued a statement clarifying that the German government had not demanded this ahead of time, saying it has "not denied access to its airspace as the UK did not submit a request, there has been no dispute between the UK and Germany on this issue." And instead of locking arms with the U.S. and other transatlantic allies to help Ukraine prepare for an attack, Germany has sought to placate Russia by taking some of the West’s most powerful deterrents off the table.
Despite being a lead NATO country and close US ally, it's become clear Berlin has sought to avoid unnecessarily provoking Moscow, also as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is soon to come online pending the significant hurdle of regulatory approval. This week it became evident that Germany will not directly export weapons to Ukraine, even as allies like the UK and US have begun to. This also has a lot to do with a long-standing arms export control policy which prevents German arms from going into geopolitical hot zones.... "Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv [not even German-made rifles, already stockpiled in other NATO countries] as it braces for a potential Russian invasion," the report say. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germany-blocks-nato-partners-supplying-its-weapons-ukraine
As the crisis has intensified, German officials and politicians have strenuously opposed using the threat of suspending Russia from SWIFT, the Belgium-based international payments system, a step that would make it extremely difficult for Russian entities to engage in international commerce.
Even Germany’s conservative opposition cautioned against using SWIFT as a bargaining chip. Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democrats, said suspending Russia’s access to the network would be the financial market equivalent of dropping an “atomic bomb.”
While Scholz has signaled that halting Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline between Germany and Russia awaiting final regulatory approval, would “have to be discussed” if Russia invades Ukraine, he has stopped well short of pledging to do so.
Can Russia find a way to avoid fulfilling this NATO Ukraine-invasion prophecy?
US training and support for Ukraine’s military is a major point of tensions between the US and Russia, and the cooperation goes far beyond the special operators’ mission. Since the 2014 US-backed coup in Kyiv, the US has provided about $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
Last week, Yahoo News reported that the CIA has been training Ukrainian paramilitaries at a base inside the United States since 2015. The New York Times reported that the Biden administration is considering backing an insurgency in Ukraine if Russia invades.
"Russia is moving two divisions of its S-400 Triumph air-defense systems, designed to take down enemy warplanes, into neighboring Belarus to take part in military exercises, the Ministry of Defense confirmed on Friday," Russian state sources report.S-400 missiles are reportedly being transported to Belarus all the way from Russia's far east. While it comes as tensions are on edge, as the world's eyes are watching the Russia-Ukraine border, the transfer of major military hardware to Minsk is said to be part of preparations for joint Belarus-Russian war drills set to run February 10 through 20.
The exercises will in part be aimed at "reinforcing the state border." This is also likely intended as a response to this week's White House-ordered "lethal aid" delivery to Ukraine's military. The UK has also been flying in repeat plane-loads of weaponry, most likely including anti-tank missiles.
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