Saturday, September 23, 2023

Simplifying The Polycrisis

 Following The Money,

  The context within which I am interpreting much of the news these days is the context of declining net global oil to power economies. Oil provides critical liquid fuels diesel and gasoline for transportation, and also jet fuel (kerosine), and bunker-fuel for ships. Oil has a high energy density, and being a liquid it is easy to store in tanks and transfer to engines via metal tubing. Of the four kinds of coal, which powered the first era of the industrial revolution, anthracite is the highest in carbon density, the cleanest and hottest-burning, and was always the most in demand as a locomotive fuel and for metal smelting. Less than 1% of American coal mined is anthracite and it all comes from northeastern Pennsylvania.,bituminous%2C%20subbituminous%2C%20and%20lignite.

  The US was the first country to advance from coal power to oil power, and to use cars and trucks over wagons drawn by livestock, which happened between WW-1 and WW-2, as British anthracite coal production was falling off, and Italy was compelled to source coal from Germany instead, causing alliances to shift. The US was the only country in the European theater of WW-2 which did not need to source feed for horses. The US was the largest producer and exporter of oil in that period.

  Recently, global conventional-oil production peaked in 2005-2006, contributing to very high oil prices in 2006-2008, when the Global Financial Crisis occurred, at least partly a result of higher fuel prices increasing all costs and reducing most incomes in the general economy. Oil was redefined to "oil", since Peak-Oil analysis was threatening to global finance. "Oil" was now "conventional oil" plus liquids and condensates from fracking and natural-gas-liquids. These are liquids, but are too light to make diesel, and have lower energy content per barrel. "Oil" production appears to have peaked in the second half of 2018, and net "oil", subtracting the oil-spent-to-obtain-oil likely peaked about that same time.

  By September of 2019 there was a crisis of faith in overnight lending between the largest banks and financial institutions in the world, resulting in the cost at the "Repo-window"  rising to reflect the risk these institutions judged to exist between each other. This led to an excessive cost of overnight lending, called the "Repo-Crisis". Analysis by BlackRock,  reported to the US Treasury, was that capital was insufficient in the financial sector and "going direct" with massive cash infusions would be needed to stabilize the sector. This was done in March 2020, as the industrialized world was "locked-down" for COVID, which muted the inflationary impulse until after the summer of 2021, as everything "opened up" again.

  Current economic paradigms, developed in the past three centruies of industrialized economic expansion, are predicated upon growth of capital investments, predicated upon economic growth. Loans and investments must be repaid with interest, which is often problematic even with widespread economic growth, but leads to crises when economies contract. During  crises, such as war, large debts can be erased, or their payment enforced through seizure of land and property. The presumption is that economic growth will resume after the war, but debt enforcement was so severe after WW-1 that it was the proximal cause for WW-2. Germany militarized and repudiated the debt.

    Since WW-2 the $US, backed first by gold, then by oil and military intimidation, has been the global reserve and trade currency. Since the stagflation crisis of the late 1970s was turned into a deep recession by Fed Chair Paul Vockler, inflation has been controlled by suppressing wages, and the value of the $US has been sustained by high enough interest rates to assure a positive return on investment for international investors, particularly those buying US Treasury debt. A gradual decrease of interest rates over that period allowed US Treasury debt to be rolled over and over, recently surpassing the unfathomable number of 33 trillion dollars. Interest rates have risen dramatically to support the value of the dollar to investors seeking real returns, but the high and accellerating level of debt can only be defaulted upon, ultimately.

   When and how will that default be managed? FDR defaulted on Debts to Americans, and confiscated their gold, devaluing their paper money by 70%. This was a lso a broad default within American industry and investment, as gold bonds were all defaulted upon. Later, Richard Nixon was forced to default upon the international gold settlement standard of the $US, but the petrodollar arrangement had already been described by economist Michael Hudson, and was formalized by Nixon, Kissinger and King Faisal of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis would only accept $US for oil, and would secretly recycle their $US into US Treasury debt, which would pay the military bills of the US government, allowing enforcement of the $US as the only currency with which to purchase oil. It was clear that this support for the market value of the $US could be sustained while Saudi oil lasted and the US military was able to prevent other countries from trading oil in other currencies. 

  This scheme to sustain US government spending, even as industrial production declined, has been workable while interest rates fell, controlling the interest payments on debt, and letting them be rolled over. Iraq, Libya and Iran could be militarily punished to a degree that deterred other countries from accepting anything but $US for oil. Keeping the market value of the $US elevated put American industrial exports at a disadvantage globally. Investing in American factories, except for weapons systems and advanced aviation and electronics was a money-losing proposition, so factories were offshored. 

  Financial Capitalism found another way to support the value of the $US through the stock market, by assuring real gains for investors who invested in $US. The values of a few companies could be manipulated in bubbles, and they could be rolled ove into fresh bubbles, in a sanctioned Ponzi scheme. Companies could be structured to "maximize shareholder (short-term) value" by buying back their own stock to pump the stock valuations. This hollowed-out the companies, while supporting the value of the $US to global financial investors. This is another game to be in "as long as the Fed's got your back", and nothing breaks. The Ponzi scheme does have to collapse, as we can see, but when?

  For the owners of global wealth, the more focused question is how they will maintain their "ownership" status at the top of the social order, where they live, and internationally.
This overrides all other considerations from their perspective, and they have studied the characteristics of humanity, as have their managers, since before history was written. They will need to enforce losses on all of the smaller players, but they will need to maintain order in the hierarchys that they command, so their managers and enforcers must be continually rewarded to hold their allegiance. Whatever "money" is defined as will need to be owned in their hands, be it gold, or Bitcoin, or some hybrid. When people die, they lose their claims on wealth, or are unable to contest them, so lots of death amongst people with claims on wealth, especially retirees, makes the maintenance of the ownership position easier. The pie gets cut into fewer pieces. Also from their perspective, all humans who do not earn wealth for them are just excess claims upon "their" wealth and assets.

  Famine and pestilence can cull the human herds with less destruction of wealth than overt war. War can be focused on the populations living above easily retrieved oil deposits, so they don't use them up in their economies, as in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Iran and Venezuela's economies have been frozen through economic blockades , which leaves infrastructure and oil wells intact, but does kill poor people.

  People need to remain unaware that this is the process taking place, or they will resist it. People need to believe that a series of unavoidable crises are just happening and it's bad luck, but things will return to normal if they just hang in there, go-green and get vaccinated against the next pandemic when it is identified. There may need to be some emergency interventions to combat homegrow, far-right, white supremacist terrorists and their supporters. Ultimately the good people will overcome those "MAGA" type threats to democracy and minority rights, and go on to transition into a completely renewable and carbon free economy. 
They will need each other's support and likes on social media through these challenging times.

Simplicius , about Thursday 9/21/23 visit to Washinton DC of Volodymyr Zelensky:  Zelensky's Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad D.C. Snubfest

  This news cropped up Wednesday, September 20, 2023, the day before Zelensky flew to DC. This Russian govt. plane landed in NYC first, before proceeding on to Washington Thanks F.S.  I can't find any subsequent reports.  (So did a little 3-way negotiating happen?)
An Ilyushin-Il-96-300 is sitting in Washington Dulles after making the long trip from Russia to the United States.

  Wednesday 9/20/23, this was the official word: 
  "Ukraine will not get ATACMS, the 190-mile-range tactical ballistic missiles, urgently requested by Zelensky to destroy Russian forces in Crimea and other Russian-held territory ‘anytime soon,’ officials say. News comes one day before Zelensky visits Biden at the White House."
Friday 9/22/23 this was the new story:
​  But on Friday it was revealed that as Zelensky visited the Oval Office the day prior, President Biden told him he's willing provide long-range ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles for the first time. But perhaps displaying the administration's reluctance on the issue, this is being reported as a "limited" or "small number" - according to officials.
"Officials said that a small number of ATACMS will be sent in coming weeks and more could be provided later."

​  Senator Rand Paul:  Ukraine “isn’t a democracy. It’s a corrupt regime.”
​  “We are about $1.5 trillion dollars in debt for this year. Over the last three months we’ve accumulated almost a trillion dollars in three months. The total is $33 trillion, so we don’t have like an extra rainy day fund or a surplus we can send them,” Paul further urged.
​  The Senator added, “We have to borrow the money from China to send to Ukraine, so no matter what your sympathies are in the war, and I am sympathetic to Ukraine fighting off the Russian aggressors, but at the same time I think it’s irresponsible to think about their country before I think about my country.”
  They want to separate out funding for the war in Ukraine so they can vote against it; things like that. These guys are clearly "trying to burn the whole place down".
​  McCarthy Throws Fit, Accuses GOP Hardliners Of Wanting To "Burn The Whole Place Down" As Shutdown Looms

​  Biden Finally Gives Netanyahu Long-Delayed White House Invitation
​  At a moment the US is pushing hard for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, President Joe Biden has finally and much belatedly issued a formal invitation for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the White House before the end of the year.

US wants Saudi defense pact modeled after South Korea, Japan deals  As US and Saudi officials discuss a security pact as part of a larger push to normalization with Israel

​  Sen. Murphy Slams Biden Plan To Commit 'American Blood' To Saudi Arabia
​  This week it was widely reported that as part of US efforts to achieve Saudi-Israel normalization, the White House could strike a new defense pact with Riyadh, which would require American military intervention if Saudi Arabia were to ever come under direct attack.

 ​In Beijing ,  Xi, Assad announce launch of China-Syria strategic partnership
The Chinese president held a high-level meeting with his Syrian counterpart in which the two stressed they would 'firmly support' each other and 'promote friendly cooperation'

​  "The Emporer is naked" :-)   China Says Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Is Unrealistic
​  Phasing out fossil fuels is unrealistic as oil, natural gas, and coal will continue to play a crucial role in global energy supply and energy security, China’s special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said this week in a speech obtained by Reuters.
​  “It is unrealistic to completely phase out fossil fuel energy,” Xie, who will represent China at COP28
 in Dubai in November, told ambassadors in Beijing ahead of the climate summit.

​  Gov. Greg Abbott officially declares ‘invasion’ at Texas-Mexico border
​  On Wednesday night, Abbott posted a video on his social media claiming that the Biden administration cut the razor wire in Eagle Pass that was in place to deter illegal immigration. Along with his deployment of more guards to protect the border, he also said that they’d be installing more razor wires...
..The legal battle between the Biden administration and Abbott continues over whether the buoys are illegal and harmful to people. Abbott holds on to the belief that Biden has not helped to secure the border, leaving Texas to fend for itself.

​  National Guard Rolls Into Eagle Pass, Texas As Biden's Border Crisis Spirals Out-Of-Control
​  Townhall reporter Julio Rosas says the​ (Texas) National Guard has sealed parts of the Eagle Pass, Texas, border with Mexico to prevent a further invasion of thousands of illegals crossing into the US.
..Rosas said, "At a different spot along the Rio Grande, illegal immigrants are finding a way through the C-wire despite the National Guard being there."...
..On Thursday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre failed to answer Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy's question:
 "So, what do you call it here at the White House when 10,000 people illegally cross the border in a single day?"
..The Border Patrol Union then blasted the 'radical' Biden administration:
"From Sept 1st through 20th the Biden Admin ordered the release of more than 100,000 illegal border crashers-enough to double the population of cities like Yuma, AZ. Think about what Biden is doing to this country with his out-of-control border policies. How many millions more?"

​  You may have heard that allegations of sexual misconduct with former girlfriends about 20 years ago have been brought up against Russel Brand (for the first time) and that he has already been "demonetized" from advertising on YouTube as a direct result.
​  Britain's Parliament has demanded that Rumble deplatform Russell Brand

​"Truth Is The New Hate Speech" , Professor Anthony Hall
Reflections on Hate Speech Targeting the Movement to Protect Canadian Children and Their Parents from Abusive Treatment by Public Schools

​  John Ward, The Slog, observes that Elon Musk's "X" is not quite the free speech zone that some believe it to be. I keep hearing that from different people...
​  Jamie Dimon demanded that homes and land be seized in order to speed up the fight to control global boiling; and when this came to the attention of Keeper of the Liberty Statue staffers at Elon Musk’s ‘X’, we Tweeters were handed the story in full:
​  No Results for "Jamie Dimon's demand that homes and land be seized"
Little Elon. Bless. Protecting we sensitive souls from the Mis and the Dis. My hero.

​Peter McCullough MD ,  Fatal Craniofacial Cancer Five Months after COVID-19 Vaccination
Published Report Concludes mRNA Injection is the Cause of Cancer

  ​This "silent process" of the UN General Assembly was supposed to mean that anybody not-objecting was voting-for this resoultion, expected be be unanimously accepted. 11 countries objected, so they decided to just get the UN President to sign off on it anyway and go ahead with the plans. Please read this whole story for full details.
​  UN President Approves Pandemic Declaration — Privacy Experts Warn of ‘Digital Gulag’
​  Over the objections of 11 nations, the United Nations General Assembly president today approved a declaration on pandemic prevention that seeks to create a global pandemic authority. Critics said the declaration supports COVID-19-style restrictions, including “closing schools and disproportionately throwing women out of work and into poverty.”

​  The United Nations (U.N.) General Assembly (UNGA) president today approved the non-binding U.N declaration on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response (PPPR), without a full assembly vote and over the objections of 11 nations.
​  Critics called the declaration, which seeks to create a global pandemic authority with the power to enforce lockdowns, universal vaccination and censorship of “misinformation,” “hypocrisy” and “unhinged.”​ ...
..[Can you figure out what this means? Speaking in riddles for those-in-the-know?]   In a statement, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “If COVID-19 taught us nothing else, it’s that when health is at risk, everything is at risk.” He linked the PPPR to the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), saying world leaders should “show they have learned the painful lessons of the pandemic.”​ ...
..Frank Gaffney, founder and president of the Center for Security Policy, told The Defender it is “very worrying” that the U.N. and WHO “will further encourage, if not actually authorize, the kind of standing capability or authority on their part to essentially dictate what constitutes emergencies.”
​  “There’s no getting around the fact that it’s going to come at the expense of the sovereignty of the various nations that will subsequently be told that they have an emergency and told what they have to do about it,” he added. “This is unprecedented.”
​  Gostin said “Negotiators are at a loss” as to how to balance accountability and sovereignty when implementing instruments like the PPPR, IHR or “pandemic treaty.”
​  Writing for the Brownstone Institute, Dr. David Bell, a public health physician, biotech consultant and former director of Global Health Technologies at Intellectual Ventures Global Good Fund, said “the main aim” of the PPPR “is to back” the “pandemic treaty” and IHR amendments currently under negotiation by WHO member states.
​  Bell said a “silence procedure” is in place, “meaning that States not responding will be deemed supporters of the text.” He said the text is “clearly contradictory, sometimes fallacious, and often quite meaningless,” and intended to centralize the WHO’s power.
​  Francis Boyle, J.D., Ph.D., a bioweapons expert and professor of international law at the University of Illinois who drafted the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, agreed. “The same people who drafted the pandemic treaty and the IHR amendments drafted the PPPR document,” Boyle told The Defender.
​  “This is a full-court press to have the entirety of the United Nations Organization, its specialized agencies and its affiliated organizations, back up and support their proposed globalist WHO worldwide totalitarian medical and scientific police state,” he said.​..
..According to ​[Treaty Analyst James] Roguski, the PPPR declaration is one of “four tracks that are important to pay attention to right now” — along with the IHR amendments adopted in May 2022, which he says “need to be rejected by the end of November,” the new IHR amendments and the “pandemic treaty” (formally named the WHO CA+ Framework Convention).
​  Roguski told The Defender that the May 2024 target date for adoption of the IHR amendments and “pandemic treaty” at the WHO’s World Health Assembly is in jeopardy due to the objecting nations — a view shared by Gostin, who said the May 2024 deadline is “pushing it” but noting that “the reason for speed is compelling.”
​  Roguski said the PPPR negotiations were conducted in “secrecy” and noted the PPPR declaration “is silent” regarding efforts to develop a Global Digital Health Certification Network — which would establish a global framework for “vaccine passports” and other types of health certificates to be implemented.
​  Roguski said that rather than calling for gain-of-function research to end, the PPPR supports funding WHO efforts “to implement a Pathogen Access and Benefits Sharing System.” He said this “increases the risk of the spread of deadly pathogens, by design.”

  ​James Roguski broke this news and listed the countries Wednesday. We need to hope that legal procedures are followed, though "they" clearly want to ram this through.
​  Broken Silence​ Eleven countries have formally objected to the political declarations that were scheduled to be adopted during the High Level Meetings (HLM) at the annual United Nations General Assembly.
​  The objections were conveyed in a letter dated 17 September 2023 to the President of the UN General Assembly H.E. Dennis Francis that was signed by the permanent representatives of the following countries: Belarus​, Bolivia​, Cuba​, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea​, Eritrea​, Islamic Republic of Iran​, Nicaragua​, Russian Federation​, Syrian Arab Republic​, Venezuela​, Zimbabwe

​  Meryl Nass MD ,  In order to help push the pandemic treaty forward, the UN attempted to get consensus; failed; and is now spinning the declaration as "approved"--but only by the General Assembly's prez, not the General Assembly.

Bloodhound (pictured pushing mower this morning)

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