Invited Guests,
Johnday's Blog
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Helen of desTroy's Senterocentennial False Flag Alert
Friday, July 3, 2026
Franz Kafka's Birthday
Weekend Partygoers,
Perhaps the best example of this is Insight 2: Energy security in a changing world — How the 1970s oil shocks shifted energy patterns (page 8-9). After misidentifying the problem as an issue rooted solely in politics and war, while forgetting to mention that the then largest producer and consumer of oil in the world by far (the US) has passed it’s own domestic peak in conventional oil production in 1970, then suffered a 15% drop in output making its economy extremely vulnerable to external shocks, the report suggests that the crisis was eventually solved by other sources of energy (coal, gas, nuclear) taking up the slack. While the reference to the present crisis around Hormuz is not explicitly there, it is very hard to miss: ‘Don’t worry so much about oil, solar is here to save us!’...
..Looking at Oil Regional consumption by product group a number of slow changes in oil use over the decades becomes visible. After the dual shock of the 70’s refineries increasingly focused on making more diesel and gasoline from the same barrel at the cost of “sacrificing” fuel oil. In 1980 roughly a quarter of a barrel was refined into gasoline globally, another quarter found its way into diesel fuel, while slightly more than a quarter was burned as fuel oil (marine fuels and crude oil directly used in power plants). The remaining part was turned into jet fuel, naphtha, solvents, lubricants, bitumen, wax etc.—essential inputs needed by the wider economy. Over the 1980 to 2018 period, however, oil’s use as a fuel has shrunk to a mere 7%, while refineries were still turning half of each barrel into road fuels and a steady 7-8% into jet fuel...
“Global recoverable oil resources, including estimates for undiscovered fields, stabilized at approximately 1.5 trillion barrels. The most significant revision over the last 10 years has been in yet-to-find resources, where our projection has been reduced by 456 billion barrels. This is due to a steep decline in frontier exploration, unsuccessful shale developments outside the Americas and a doubling in offshore costs over the past five years. Rystad Energy expects reserve replacements from new conventional oil projects to be less than 30% of production over the next five years, while exploration would replace only about 10%.”
Another study from the IEA, published last year, found that as oil fields mature (read: deplete) production decline accelerates. At first just by a little, which can be easily offset by enhanced oil recovery techniques, then ever faster and faster… Till the increased energy and material investment needed to keep the juices flowing no longer worth it, and extraction stops. Bad news is that, in 2024, around 80% of global oil production and 90% of natural gas production came from fields that had passed their peak in production...
Diesel fuel, the most valuable portion of the barrel cannot be substituted with electricity at scale either, as agriculture, mining and long distance trucking (not to mention construction) are still completely dependent on this fuel. And without these activities, there is no copper, zinc, nickel, silicon—or anything needed to make “renewables” plus the gazillion electric devices, batteries, transformers, high voltage lines etc. needed to build a ‘smart’ grid to accommodate them. Average citizens buying electric vehicles will not and cannot change that picture—only worsen it by hasting mineral depletion. (In fairness the same goes for driving gas guzzlers.) See, contrary to the impression conveyed by the authors of this report various energy sources are neither fungible beyond a certain limited degree, nor infinite: as each depend on mining non-renewable resources to depletion. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/infinite-growth-delusions-continue
Back in 2013, when the Surplus Energy Economics project began, it was possible to suspect that the fading out of the fossil fuel impetus, first harnessed during the industrial revolution, might be pointing towards a pretty imminent ending of economic growth.
Today, through the application of a series of fundamental precepts, we can know, and at very high levels of confidence, that the economy has stopped expanding, and is heading into contraction... [long, detailed part] ...
At the same time, and as the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services retreats, an economy increasingly starved of surplus energy will become progressively more labour-intensive.
The problem, as ever, is ‘getting from A to B’, when “A” is a society hubristically wedded to notions of infinite growth whilst “B” is a more stable-state situation better geared to meeting needs than to fostering the avaricious psychology of consumerism and paper wealth.
Our understanding of finance, when benchmarked to the material, should inform us that the moment of monetary failure will coincide with the attainment of absolute peak valuation.
Policy desperation will combine with ignorance of economic processes to ensure that a theoretical wealth based on non-monetizable notation, and on a complete inability to match claim with substance, will hit its zenith at the very point at which markets complete their failure, and money is stripped of the only substantive value that it can ever possess. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/07/01/327-surplus-energy-economics/#like-45966
In Early June we said that confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy.
The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iran-runs-big-problem-no-buyers-its-oil-full-tankers-pile-china
Fears that Israel could derail the fledgling peace talks spiked in April as America believed the Jewish state had their eyes on Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, The New York Times reported.
The two leaders would go on to approve the current peace deal with the US. If they were killed, it would have likely prolonged the conflict as previous assassinations by Israel have...
Despite the clear orders to keep Araghchi and Ghalibaf alive, American officials still held concerns that Israel would still try to assassinate them, pushing the US to ask countries in the Middle East to warn Iran about the possibility of an attack, sources told the Times...
..During the flight, Iran’s security forces notified the plane about an alleged Israeli plan to attack the aircraft, with two Israeli fighter jets detected entering the Islamic republic’s airspace, two officials told the outlet...
..Ghalibaf had previously survived two attacks from the US and Israel during the latest war and in the 12 Day war last year.
The account echoes the claims from Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Ghalibaf, who said the plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Mashhad, Iran’s closest airport to Pakistan.
The delegation was forced to take an eight hour trip by land to Tehran due to the security concerns, Mohammadi said.
Ghalibaf would go on to travel with Araghchi to Qatar and then to Switzerland last month for another in-person meeting with Vance and American negotiators. https://nypost.com/2026/07/02/world-news/us-officials-feared-israel-was-plotting-to-kill-head-iranian-negotiators-report/
Shortly before, the US had gone as far as warning Iran through other countries in the region that Israel would target the two officials, which led to the emergency landing and other safety measures. An Israeli security official responded to the NYT report telling i24 News, "If and when Israel wants to eliminate anyone, it does so." https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2072782565501767743
Iran on Thursday issued a warning to the United States and Israel, Reuters reported:
"We warn the enemies of Iran, especially the U.S. and the Zionist regime (Israel), to avoid any miscalculation and to think about the harsh retaliation our armed forces would make to any threat and aggression against our country," Ali Abdollahi, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said...
Vice President JD Vance was heavily involved in the ceasefire MoU with Iran. The first part of the Memorandum extended the ceasefire to Lebanon and was supposed to guarantee it sovereignty.
At the same time or shortly thereafter Secretary of State Marco Rubio negotiated an agreement with Lebanon and Israel which guarantees a continuation of the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanese land.
The Lebanon agreement is thus a direct attack on the MoU with Iran.
Via The Cradle we find some interesting speculation how this is an expression of a power struggle within Trump’s White House coterie:
The agreement between Lebanon and Israel cannot be understood through bilateral negotiations alone. It also reflects shifting power dynamics in Washington, where US policy toward Lebanon is shaped not only by official institutions, but by competition within the administration and the Republican Party, alongside pressure from pro-Israel lobbying groups, particularly the Zionist lobby and the hardline Lebanese Christian lobby.… [This] is reflected in the quiet contest within the American right, particularly between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represents the traditional pro-Israel Republican establishment, and Vice President JD Vance, whose camp has been more cautious about US involvement in West Asia. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/war-on-iran-vance-rubio-struggle-oman-supports-fees.html
“Will Israel restart the war with Iran before the October elections? This is the consensus view emerging within Iran’s internal national security debate over the past week,” Parsi said.
On the same day, Vice President JD Vance played a little 'bad cop' - warning that if Iran fails to acquiesce and destabilizes the region that the US could respond, escalating in several ways. "If Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, threaten its neighbors and support terrorism, President Trump has options to deal with it," Vance said. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-briefed-full-scale-war-plans-still-eyes-diplomacy-iran-reminds-us-muzzle-your-pets
But the war track is re-arming: a source close to Ghalibaf says Israel is preparing a new round of operations, after Katz ordered the IDF to ready a "blue-and-white" op (HormuzLetter); Trump is moving more Marines to the Gulf (ProfessorPape). Khamenei's funeral prompted a mediated US-Iran pause...
..Separately, IDF casualties reported in clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; rocket sirens near the border...
The physical-vs-paper case: few ships will sail to Hormuz, so ME tanks stay full and traders misread discounts as glut (JustDario); China quietly drained ~450M barrels of imports in June, masking tightness...
The optics aren't great: Trump says his kids made him $1.4B in crypto, which he "had no idea" about (Nostra) — more than every public crypto-treasury company combined in 2025 (Hedgeye); disclosures show 21,000+ trades across eight accounts, ~80/day... https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-07-03
Meta reportedly building "Meta Compute" to rent data centers/models, rivaling AWS/Azure (zerohedge). The tell everyone seized on: if the biggest buyers are now sellers, what's actually scarce? ...
According to a report by Jewish Insider, Chuck Schumer and his Republican collaborator’s attempt to sneak the AAA into the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act was thwarted when a coalition of nationalist podcasters such as Tucker Carlson and various Palestine sympathetic left-wing groups called attention to its draconian provisions and drew backlash to the bill.
Rather than give up, Jewish groups reeling from the defeat have decided to launch a renewed offensive, this time attacking opposition to their Zionist agenda at its root: freedom of speech, especially on social media.
In May and June, a bipartisan coalition of 15 House Republicans and 14 Democrats formally sponsored the Jewish American Security Act (JASA), a piece of legislation that if passed would constitute one of the most sweeping attacks on the First Amendment in American history. The bill enjoys practically universal backing from Jewish non-profits and Zionist activist groups.
The new law presents four major demands: the appointment of a specialized Anti-Semitism commissar to manage the Department of Education’s campaign combating pro-Palestinian activism on college campuses, a $1 billion dollar cash injection to “secure” Zionist non-profits and Jewish houses of worship, mandatory state monitoring of online social media platforms in order to force them to censor “anti-Semitic” political speech on their platforms, and officially reorienting the mission of the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and National Counterintelligence and Security Center as instruments for targeting critics of Jews and Israel as foreign enemy actors and domestic terrorists.
On the education front, JASA strengthens and makes permanent Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14188 (“Additional Measures to Combat Antisemitism”), which emphasizes that Israelis are a protected class above criticism under the 1964 Civil Rights Act...
In this case, the Rules Committee played dirty cop and the fix was in to make sure the House would not be able to vote on the military merger because the amendment was simply not placed in the rule...
If the rule goes down, the bill goes down with it.
Why Was the NDAA Vote Delayed?
Here is what happened.
Because of a dispute over the SAVE Act, the House voted down the rule. The NDAA never came before the House for debate or final passage. A disappointed Speaker adjourned the House until July 13.
As a consequence, the NDAA has not passed and the U.S.-Israel military merger it authorizes has not become law.
Yet.
When the House returns, the Rules Committee must meet again and draft a new rule. Based on what just happened in committee, there is every reason to believe the new rule will once again prevent any amendment from being offered to remove the military merger. https://kucinichreport.substack.com/p/us-israel-military-merger-delayed
Israel Hayom reports that an area near the destroyed city of Rafah is the first location where such camps will be set up. This is noteworthy because one year ago defense minister Israel Katz stated that there was a plan to construct a “humanitarian city” on the ruins of Rafah, where “the emigration plan” for the Palestinians would then be implemented, adding that Benjamin Netanyahu was working on finding foreign nations to accept the population of Gaza. https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/the-gaza-ethnic-cleansing-agenda
Danon, however, utilizes a peculiar approach to defending Israel within international institutions: he relies on bullying, intimidation, and an overt attempt to silence anyone who dares to challenge the official Israeli narrative—particularly women leaders. Yet, what makes his behavior most outrageous is his deployment of these abrasive tactics to suppress an issue that demands the utmost sensitivity: the systemic use of sexual violence and human rights abuses against Palestinians.
The confrontation took place during a UN General Assembly session convened to mark the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict. Senior UN officials were presenting harrowing findings documenting sexual violence against Palestinian detainees...
When Vanessa Frazier, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, attempted to intervene on a point of order per established protocol, Danon unleashed a vitriolic verbal assault. Refusing to yield, he shouted over her, ordering her to “be quiet” and drowning out the chamber with his outbursts. “Shame on you. You are part of this obsession,” Danon bellowed. https://www.savageminds.co/p/monsters-playing-victims
The organization said Rangzen broadcast a livestream on Facebook before self-immolating near the U.N. headquarters, in which he called for Tibetan independence and spoke about the Chinese occupation of Tibet.
The activist attributed his actions to his commitment to Tibet and emphasized that they were not driven by any personal circumstances, the Tibetan National Congress added.
In his final message, he said: “I don’t want you to mourn for me, I want you to continue the struggle for Tibetan independence, because the lack of independence is the root of all our problems,” according to the Tibetan National Congress.
“We must recognize and remember that Lobga Rangzen committed this act for the political freedom of Tibet,” Jamyang Norbu, founder of the Tibetan National Congress, said. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tibetan-man-sets-himself-fire-outside-un-headquarters-new-york
And which things could those be, that could trigger such a contingency? The most obvious answer: Belarus being forced into the war after being attacked by Ukraine. In short, it’s possible that the Russian General Staff is providing for a plan that should Belarus forcibly be brought into the war, then Russian troops will be able to use its territory without creating any ‘thorny’ political issues. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-7226-another-massive-strike
Russia’s escalation options for ending the war on the original terms of the Special Military Operation of February 2022 are now too little, too late.
This is because demilitarization of the Ukrainian battlefield cannot stop or deter the rearmament of the NATO allies for permanent war against Russia.
Nor can denazification of the Kiev regime succeed when the NATO allies have become nazified, like the Trump regime in Washington. Militarization and nazification have become US empire war aims against Russia... They are planning the permanent war future in which the territorial concessions Putin agreed to in Anchorage a year ago – Crimea and the four Novorussian regions in exchange for a US guarantee of Russia’s security in Europe – will not produce the “the security of our country and our citizens, and the inviolability of Russia’s borders for decades ahead”. That was Putin’s promise to Russian voters in his first election campaign rally early this week (June 28)...
..So what is the end-of-war plan now? “Our primary objective [is] the final liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya,” Putin continued. “We know that the West continues to pursue Russia’s strategic defeat. There have been occasional suggestions that this is no longer the case, but officially no one has abandoned that objective. The goal remains Russia’s strategic defeat. If that is so, then why are they calling for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, and increasingly expressing a desire to take part in them? If Ukraine is, as they claim, capturing more and more territory and liberating it – in other words, if it is winning – then Western leaders simply need to wait. Russia’s strategic defeat would, it would seem, come about of its own accord. So let them wait. Meanwhile, our troops will continue doing their job and will do everything necessary to achieve the objectives of the special military operation.” ...
Rubio said: “There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war. So as I said, the President is prepared, as the United States remains prepared, to play whatever constructive role we can to bring about an enduring end to this war in Ukraine, and which has been bloody – 25 – 20,000 soldiers killed every month; 5,000 a week, most of them Russian. So it’s been debilitating for Europe, for the – but especially for Ukraine and for Russia increasingly.
So if they’re – we are prepared to step forward and play a constructive role, if there’s one for us to play, in bringing the parties together and bringing that war to an end. That’s what the President’s tried to do now for a year and a half, but there was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal made in Alaska, but it was never an agreement…
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that, in Alaska, there were only proposals and no agreements concerning a settlement in Ukraine. Consequently, as he put it, it is unclear why Moscow appears so concerned. The reality of the situation is that, viewed in the broader context, several days prior to the Alaska meeting, US President’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Moscow bringing those very proposals from President Donald Trump. We duly took them into account. President of Russia Vladimir Putin pledged to present his response during the Alaska meeting.
Subsequently, in Anchorage, as the two presidents sat down for negotiations – and I must note that Marco Rubio and your humble servant were also present – President Vladimir Putin, addressing Steve Witkoff, who was likewise in attendance, began to enumerate the US proposals point by point. Following each item, in the presence of US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he enquired of Steve Witkoff whether he had accurately captured the ideas brought to Moscow ahead of Anchorage.
To each of these queries, Steve Witkoff responded in the affirmative. Therefore, when my colleague Marco Rubio contends that only proposals were made in Alaska and no agreement was reached, I am left to question what precisely is meant by “agreement.” If one party, in this case the United States, puts forward its proposals for a settlement – for an approach to resolving this crisis – and the other party expresses concurrence with these proposals, then to state that no agreement was reached appears, to put it mildly, somewhat inelegant.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also remarked, at another engagement somewhere in the Middle East, that the United States stands ready to move forward and play a constructive role, should the opportunity arise. In his words, bringing the parties together and bringing an end to this war is precisely what US President Donald Trump has been endeavouring to achieve for a year and a half.
All of this, presumably, may be “credited’ as confirmation that there were indeed American proposals in Alaska, which we accepted. However, the quotation I have just referenced prompts a further question. I am referring to Secretary Marco Rubio’s recent testimony during hearings in Congress, during which he stated that the United States cannot act as a mediator because it supports Ukraine.
Yet, when an interest is expressed in the United States playing a constructive role, in uniting the parties – this already begins to resemble a claim to mediation. It is, of course, necessary to bring clarity to the entirety of this situation. Nevertheless, the fact remains: in Alaska, the US proposals were discussed and were accepted by the Russian side.” https://johnhelmer.net/the-anchorage-formula-was-a-trump-trick-putin-fell-for-it-for-a-year-so-now-what-sack-dmitriev-dismiss-witkoff-kushner-destroy-nato-arms-convoys-entering-ukraine-from-poland/#more-94527
I called this process ‘ethnic cleansing’ in the full knowledge that the term is highly emotive. Indeed, one reader wrote to me directly, telling me that it is a form of ‘genocide.’ That goes to show how our language has been corrupted. ‘Ethnic cleansing’ such as one can see going on in Donbas is saving lives rather than taking lives. It is precisely the opposite of the American way of war, meaning indiscriminate carpet bombing of territory that you intend to take possession of. Moreover, the ongoing ethnic cleansing has the support of the Ukrainian government: it is they who try to withdraw to safety behind Ukrainian lines the entire population of towns under threat of Russian seizure. Indeed some residents of such towns and hamlets head West under compulsory evacuations. Others head east to the Russian side. And a minority of the core populations, mostly the elderly who cannot move, stay put and await ‘liberation’ by advancing Russian troops...
The Russian climbers, who go by Angela Nikolau and Ivan Beerkus, were the subject of the 2024 Netflix documentary "Skywalkers: A Love Story" about their "rooftopping" exploits and budding romance. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/an-audacious-climb-turned-into-a-marriage-proposal-the-couple-was-soon-arrested
“I don’t think there is any Parliament that is gayer than this Parliament” https://modernity.news/2026/07/01/outgoing-uk-pm-proud-to-have-the-gayest-parliament-of-all-time-anywhere-in-the-world/
While the attackers dispersed without consequence, multiple officers swarmed the white lad, barked obscenities at him, shoved him into a police car the wrong way round, and then dragged him back out again.
A bystander who tried to explain that the white kid was the victim was completely ignored. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-shocking-footage-britains-two-tier-policing
Shabir Ahmed’s case lays bare how legal technicalities, political cowardice, and a refusal to enforce borders have turned the country into a revolving door for the most dangerous offenders.
Ahmed, now 73, arrived in the UK long before 1973 as a Commonwealth citizen. He was convicted in 2012 at Liverpool Crown Court on multiple counts of rape, aiding and abetting rape, sexual assault, and trafficking for sexual exploitation. He treated at least one victim as property, abusing her on an almost weekly basis. Part of a gang of nine men operating out of takeaways in the Heywood area of Rochdale, Ahmed and his associates targeted working-class girls from broken backgrounds. https://modernity.news/2026/06/30/you-simply-will-not-believe-this/
The anomalous clots were estimated to be present in 23.4% of all embalmed corpses overall. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-multi-year-study-of-808
The COVID emergency framework is finally ending, but the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA injections have already moved beyond it. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-hhs-terminates-the-covid
Monday, June 29, 2026
Predetermined Outcomes
Human Study Participants,
..Just as with COVID induced oil production shut-ins, the real world economic impact of the crisis will take many months if not a full year to arrive. And since this time agriculture will be especially hard hit with fuel, fertilizer and chemical shortages (on top of a massive El Nino added to already raging droughts and heatwaves from climate change) food prices will likely skyrocket in 2027...
..As for a cue what to expect, take a look at European industries 4 years after Russian gas has been shut off and pipelines were blown up. Electricity and gas prices in Britain and elsewhere in the EU are still 90% higher compared to other parts of the world, continuously eroding competitiveness and acting as a primary driver behind deindustrialization...
But wait, there is much more to the story than oil. America has a surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas liquids (NGL) to sell—which it can now push on to Taiwan, among many other countries in East Asia and India, at a premium price. And, as an added bonus, thus becoming the largest supplier of these fuels—used in power plants and for cooking respectively—Washington gains direct leverage over these countries, just as it did over Europe after becoming its largest LNG vendor. Remember, nothing happens in this Universe without energy. Energy directly translates into political power and becoming “the world’s leading energy producer and exporter” by starting and funding wars, blowing up pipelines and refineries, imposing sanctions etc. is nothing but a pure market and power grab...
As one of these sources bluntly put it, “the main point you are missing is that Trump was scared stiff by June 15 being only 60 days away from the final emptying of the world reserve oil supplies, leading to the complete destruction of Donald J. Trump. That is the only reason for his about face. If he waited much longer, he would by August 15 be so behind the eight ball that he would not be able to recover And that may happen anyway.”
The source was referring to a detailed risk assessment where the hard data points to mid-August 2026 as “the moment the U.S. must legally halt the emergency dumping. When that tap closes, the global oil supply deficit will instantly widen by millions of barrels per day, creating a world crisis.”...
Enter the interplay between the physical depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); the true, practical limits of oil prices; and the terrifying, hidden two-quadrillion-dollar derivatives market. The sources analyse this interplay as a highly synchronized endgame.
Let’s summarize it. As of late May 2026, only a month ago, the SPR has been drained to 365.1 million barrels, “the lowest operational level in over 40 years.”
With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed – including by the Trump blockade – the U.S. is currently drawing down an historic 1.41 million barrels a day (nearly 10 million barrels a week) to artificially suppress prices.
Then comes “the critical policy number to watch”. It is not “zero barrels”, but actually 243 million barrels. Why? Because the Department of Forever Wars has certified that drawing the reserve below 243 million barrels explicitly impairs the American capability to wage war.
Once again the sources refer to their analysis: at the current velocity of 1.41 million barrels a day, the U.S. would burn through its 122-million-barrel discretionary cushion in exactly 86 days.
And that’s not all. The sources note that “prices could easily breach the historic 2008 and 2022 peaks if refined product shortages trigger cascading shutdowns across European and Asian industrial sectors. However, a multi-hundred-dollar figure like $700 is widely considered a theoretical maximum that would instantly destroy global demand and collapse the entire international financial architecture before it could ever be sustained.”
At that threshold, “the physical economy experiences immediate demand destruction. Airlines grounded, shipping networks halted, and industrial manufacturing ceased. The price cannot physically sustain $700 because the global economic machine using the oil will disintegrate at $200, causing consumption to drop to near zero.”
And here we come to the clincher: “The danger is not the price tag itself, but the fact that the price spike will trigger the structural collapse of the underlying debt infrastructure”...
Either neo-Crassus contains himself, or he may even become responsible for a global crisis linked to widespread sovereign debt implosion. https://strategic-culture.su/
US-Iran talks may resume Tuesday in Doha, Trump declaring the plan in a Monday Truth Social, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveling to Qatar, though Tehran denies technical negotiations are scheduled. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-set-new-talks-trump-says-hours-after-tehran-denied-plans-due-days-hormuz
Since April, US gold and Bitcoin funds bled ~$12B while semiconductor funds pulled in ~$20B (per Shanaka) — gold's "death cross" forming.
The bull case: death crosses in gold have repeatedly marked sentiment resets, not tops (Macrobysunil).
Silver in a top-5 drawdown of the past 30 years, weekly RSI near historic oversold (TheApeOfGoldStreet)...
PBOC is revamping gold import/export rules (oriental_ghost); accumulate-gold accounts now yield interest and serve as loan collateral (DavidLe)...
1,430 dead, 3,238 injured, 68,900 reported missing by families (Osint613); 900+ US sanctions complicating relief (AlanRMacLeod).
US begins a humanitarian operation — warships, heavy-lift aircraft, a $150M aid package (zerohedge). On the ground: a 100-ton crane idle for 24h+ for lack of an operator with a key...
Physical crude prices sank to prewar levels even as tankers burn, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest since 1983...
..WTI futures volumes ran ~30% below average Friday and weekend prices "didn't flinch" at fresh tanker strikes — algorithmic, detached from the tape (DarioCpx). Someone bought "an absurd amount" of WTI calls expiring July 16...
US tech-sector funds saw -$15B outflows, the largest weekly withdrawal in 2.5+ years, right after a record +$19B inflow the prior week...
Central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 — and reportedly ~15x more than officially reported, per WGC data...
Under the memorandum of understanding, the Strait of #Hormuz will return to its pre-war operating capacity within 30 days under the management adopted by Iran and after the obstacles are removed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
These arrangements are currently being implemented, and responsibility for them rests solely with the Islamic Republic of Iran. No other institution or country bears responsibility in this regard.
According to the memorandum of understanding signed between Iran and the United States, any interference in this matter, or any attempt to establish new or separate arrangements from those currently being implemented by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will only complicate the situation, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and increase tensions.
As we witnessed over the past two nights, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have already contributed to rising tensions and confrontations.
I call on all parties not to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz or in the arrangements being made by the Islamic Republic of Iran for its reopening. They should abide by the signed memorandum of understanding and not allow it to deviate from its intended course.
The IRCG has also issued fresh warnings. From Aljazeera’s live feed:
IRGC warns it will ‘respond even more forcefully’
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged to meet any US attacks with a more forceful response as tit-for-tat strikes continue in the Gulf.
“As we predicted, the enemy is an enemy that breaks its commitments, is deceitful, and cannot be trusted. At any moment, at any stage of the negotiations, it may take certain actions,” IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi told state-run SNN TV.
“Whatever action the enemy takes in this regard, we have responded to it, and we will respond to it. We repeat: If the enemy breaks its commitments and violates the ceasefire, we will respond more strongly than before, and we stress we will respond even more forcefully. We regard such moves by the enemy as natural because we know the enemy’s nature,” Mohebi said. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
Latest via the same publication:
The US has bombed Iran for a second day, hitting the city of Sirik, Bandar-e Lengeh and Qeshm Island, following a drone attack on a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel has bombed southern Lebanon, killing at least one person, a day after signing a framework agreement with the Lebanese government to end hostilities.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asks Trump to help prevent Israeli violations, as Hezbollah rejects the agreement with Israel, describing it as “a surrender of sovereignty”. https://www.zerohedge.com/
Strikes on Iran violate War Powers Resolution, US lawmaker says https://www.iranintl.com/en/
Less than 150 miles from Iran’s southern coast, NSA Bahrain has been the anchor of American naval power in the Middle East for more than three decades. The base can host every type of ship in the U.S. fleet, and has played a critical role in countering Iranian weapon smuggling, minelaying and tanker attacks.
They report that the US Fifth Fleet Headquarters has been rendered “unusable”—at least in part—after taking a huge ballistic strike...
Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress last month that the department’s estimated cost of the war, then at $29 billion, didn’t include damage to U.S. bases...
The last days there were two developments in Lebanon and Iran that will likely cause the war to reignite into a much larger conflagration.
Iran insists on having control over the Strait of Hormuz. But at least half of the passage way is under Oman’s jurisdiction.
Oman is, unlike Iran, a member of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and has as such a different view of the international law with regards to the Strait situation. Oman is also a (former) UK/U.S. dependent. Iran’s attempts to pull the traditionally neutral Oman onto its side of the conflict have failed...
I have been informed of an attack today in the Gulf of Oman on a vessel which passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This vessel did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework. I have always reiterated that the safety of the seafarers remains paramount. Therefore, to ensure a coordinated approach and navigational safety, the evacuation plan will be paused until further clarity is obtained. …”
No one got hurt in the drone attack. There was only minor damage to the ship.
The U.S. however used the incident, in which it was formerly not involved, to escalate the situation. Several U.S. airplanes launched stand-off missile attacks on Iranian radar installations near Sirik, a port city in southern Iran, near Hormuz.
Last night Iran announced that it had hit back...
Yesterday it signed a Tripartite Agreement with the U.S. and Israel which will allow Israel to keep control over south Lebanon including over some 60 townships which it had cleansed of their Shia population. The agreement commits the Lebanese government to disarm Hizbullah, which it can not do, while allowing Israel to stay indefinitely... It is even more than that. Israel’s clear intention here is to reignite a Lebanese civil war and may well succeed. https://www.moonofalabama.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have freshly announced that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) completely demolished a massive Hezbollah underground fortress embedded deep beneath the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun. The village itself was leveled, with the IDF having released footage showing an unusually strong explosion. https://www.zerohedge.com/
Iran Challenges US Doctrine of Low-Intensity Warfare
They wrote that the official description of low-intensity warfare was deliberately broad and ambiguous, embracing drug interdiction in Bolivia, the occupation of Beirut, the invasion of Grenada, the airstrikes on Libya in 1986, as well as covert “special operations,” “special activities,” and “unconventional warfare.”
They concluded that low-intensity conflict was in fact “a strategic reorientation of the US military establishment, and renewed commitment to employ force in a global crusade against Third World revolutionary movements and governments.”
Today’s nominal but false ceasefires in Gaza, Lebanon and the Persian Gulf fit squarely within that doctrine. They allow the US and Israel to continue illegal uses of force while appearing to respond to international demands for negotiations and diplomacy.
But the US involvement in low-intensity conflict today is not limited to the Middle East. It also encompasses the proxy war on Russia centered in Ukraine; the savage, deadly siege of Cuba; US and western piracy on the high seas; the kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela and his wife; and economic and financial coercive measures or “sanctions” that impact about 40 countries.
Today’s low-intensity warfare also includes deploying US special operations forces in up to 140 countries. Since 2001, US special operations forces claim to have suffered 40% of all US military casualties, including many of the 8,492 American deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Concentrating such a large share of US war casualties in such a small force – about 70,000 men and women at any one time – helps to give most American families the illusion of living in peace, even as the United States projects military force across the world and kills thousands, sometimes hundreds of thousands, of people abroad.
The doctrine of low-intensity warfare depends on a fundamental assumption: that the countries targeted by the United States and its allies will remain too weak, too isolated or too divided to effectively resist. But that assumption is increasingly being tested. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
“I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones,” Sidhwa said. “But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die.” https://scheerpost.com/2026/
From The Times of Israel:
“Israel is seeking to revive its moribund plan for the voluntary migration of Gazans out of the Strip, and has rebranded it in an effort to soften the blanket international opposition to it, Channel 13 news reports, citing unnamed Israeli officials.
“Security agencies have in recent days been told to abandon the “voluntary migration” title due to the global opposition, and it will from now on be officially referred to as a ‘plan for free movement,’ the report says. https://www.caitlinjohnst.
Draft resolution seeks to shield board members and security forces from potential prosecution for work in Gaza https://www.theguardian.com/
There is an ongoing Ukrainian propaganda campaign to depict the country as winning the conflict with Russia.
The campaign is accompanied by drone attacks on energy targets within Russia. While burning fuel tanks at this or that of many Russian refineries may look impressive the effects on Russia have so fare been mere nuances. Ongoing drone attacks on Crimea have led to inconveniences for the inhabitants of the island.
The Ukrainian campaign is supported by the Europeans who are trying to pull the U.S. back into the conflict. The U.S. however had never left. After the meeting between President Trump and President Putin in August 2025 in Anchorage there was talk about an agreement between the two presidents but no announcement of any specifics.
After the meeting Trump had called for Ukraine to leave the Donbas area to make peace with Russia. But he never applied any pressure to achieve that outcome. Meanwhile U.S. intelligence and weapon support for Ukraine continued.
For a while Russia had seemed to believe in the ‘sprit of Anchorage’ and had expressed hope for an end on the conflict along Trump’s proposal. That view has long since gone away.
Now U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has officially dismissed any talk of an Anchorage agreement:
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump failed to secure any final agreements on Ukraine settlement at their meeting in Anchorage.
“There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war,” Rubio told journalists in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, in the course of his state visit.
Now Rubio’s underling even declares that Ukraine is winning:
Speaking ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in GdaÅ„sk, US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin said the conflict has shifted in Kyiv’s favor, Mezha reported.
“As of now, we are in a position where Ukraine is winning the war at this moment” Levin said, adding that the situation on the battlefield has shifted in Kyiv’s favor, allowing Washington to speak about Ukraine’s success as a current reality instead of a distant goal...
The Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Syrski has long insisted on creating new ‘assault’ brigades instead of filling up the shrinking regular brigades which attempt to hold grounds.
A recent investigation by the Ukrainian outlet Babel reveals murder and torture in the recruit training camps of the 425th Assault Regiment Skala (Rock)...
Strana reports that the “Rock” is far from the only such unit.
The mass death of Ukrainian soldiers due to torture while in training is probably what the State Department considers as ‘winning’.
Russia has meanwhile initiated a new campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and logistics. Targets are locomotives, truck depots, large post office warehouses (which run Ukraine’s military logistics), oil storage facilities and petrol stations of which more than 150 have been destroyed so far.
The slow squeeze continues. Ukraine isn’t winning. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/ukraine-isnt-winning.html
"As for strikes against critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems," Putin said in the new interview published by the Kremlin. "That's obvious."
"Right now we're observing a certain shortage, but it's not critical," he added. He also made wide-ranging public remarks at a major summit of the ruling 'United Russia' party. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-concedes-fuel-shortages-after-ukraine-strikes-plays-it-cool-problematic-not
Let us be frank: the admission by President Putin that there is a serious fuel shortage as a result of destruction of refineries is inviting his own overthrow. Gasolene availability and pricing is a highly political issue in Russia just as it is in the USA and Western Europe. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/news-x-world-putin-admits-russian
President Putin’s message to the German government and the German people:
‘We have no desire to attack you. Why would we? Those days are long behind us. Anyone who is thinking clearly can see that.
First:
Your national debt already stands at €2.5 trillion, and no serious economist seems to know how it will ever be repaid...
Millions of migrants now live in your country, costing tens of billions of euros each year. Why should the Russian people bear any responsibility for that?
Third:
A sizeable portion of your population believes that riding bicycles and eating insects can change the climate. Perhaps such thinking could be corrected, but doing so would come at a cost.
Your education system was once admired around the world. Today, in many German classrooms, meaningful teaching has become difficult because German is no longer widely spoken.
Fifth:
Your infrastructure is crumbling, and you are struggling to keep up with the repairs.
Your railways were once a source of national pride and an example to the world. Today, your trains are notorious for delays and declining reliability
Seventh:
We no longer depend on your renowned engineers. The sanctions taught us how to manage without them. And if we ever need outside expertise, we can turn to China, where it is not only less expensive but often more competitive.
You lack the natural resources and energy reserves that would make your country strategically attractive to conquer. Why would we take on problems that otherwise would not concern us?
Realistically, even if you invited us in, surrendered, and waved white flags, we still would not come.’ https://michaelwalshwriter.com/2026/06/27/address-to-the-peoples-of-europe-putin/
'It's like feudalism,' commission staffer tells Politico, referring to how the upper floors occupied by commissioners – the EU executive – kept their air conditioning https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-commission-hq-shuts-down-air-conditioning-for-lower-staffers-but-keeps-it-on-for-most-commissioners/3979743
Rumors were spinning that because Americans don't care about "soccer" that the tournament would be mismanaged, that America was "racist", the players would be treated poorly, and that the US is such a dangerous place it would deter travelers from going overseas to attend the games.
The anti-American sentiment being generating by western journalists is staggering. However, all it took was a few weeks and around 1.2 million foreign visitors per city coming to see the World Cup at the same time. Suddenly, Europeans have realized they've been lied to about everything.
The US hosted event is now being called one of the most successful in history. The propaganda spell has been broken. Europeans are going on social media to apologize for the hate their countrymen have been dumping on the US over the years. And, most importantly, they've discovered air conditioning.
Strangely, it's not American gun rights that are sparking mass debate. Rather, it's the air conditioning issue that's causing the most friction with political leaders back in Europe, and the elites are not happy. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-world-cup-just-start-war-europe-over-air-conditioning
Xenophobia is a human-species characteristic in hard times: A new wave of xenophobia is sweeping through South Africa, with migrants murdered, homes destroyed and thousands displaced.
Referring to the fact that Epps was taken off the FBI’s Most Wanted list in early 2021, Patel said there was only two ways someone could get off that list—either they died or they’re working for the government. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lawsuit-filed-records-jan-6-provocateur-ray-epps
Why?
Here’s the sequence of events -
On August 8, 2025 Charlie says he thinks Israel will kill him if he leaves the Israeli cause.
On September 8, 2025 he announces he is leaving the Israeli cause.
On September 9, 2025 he tells 3 people he thinks he is going to be killed.
On September 10, 2025 he is assassinated.
The FBI, the state of Utah and local authorities think none of this is worthy of investigation.
At no point did Charlie Kirk say he had any concerns about transfurry people. Transfurry people were not pulling funding from TPUSA. They were not posing an existential threat to Charlie Kirk. That threat was coming from Israel. It was Netanyahu that offered to take Charlie Kirk and TPUSA to the next level at a meeting in the Hamptons sponsored by Jewish billionaire Bill Ackman in early August of 2025. Charlie turned Netanyahu down. Transfurries had nothing to do with any of that.
So what does the FBI do? The FBI decides to ignore the obvious avenue of investigative pursuit and instead, dreams up a lame narrative that a lone, transfurry gunman named Tyler Robinson shot Charlie Kirk in the neck with his grandfathers .30-06 rifle...
Tyler had a family friend in law enforcement who recommended to Tyler’s parents that the safest place for Tyler was in jail. So, he turned himself in. That may be the only reason why he is still alive today. We can be sure that was not part of the overall plan to silence Charlies growing influence about the dangers of being aligned with Israel, and prevent his potential run for the White House in a few years. https://secularheretic.substack.com/p/as-i-predicted-the-investigation
“If prices go down too far, you’re not making as much money; it’s not worth it,” he continued. “That’s what I’m surprised about right now, that rig counts stayed steady. It hasn’t gone up a lot because, you know, we saw $100 oil, a little higher than that, and it’s staying around the $70-$80, but there are so many countries that are coming back in right now that everybody feels like that oil could go down.” https://mynorthwest.com/john-curley/oil-gas-prices-summer/4251768
It’s only a rational business decision to follow the yield. But the yield isn’t from “AI”. So it’s not hype, not fancy enough for the crowd. https://no01.substack.com/p/the-bigger-the-boom-the-harder-the
The tech-focused Nasdaq index fell about 3% by close of trade alongside international chipmakers, reigniting fears that dizzying market valuations have finally run out of momentum after a relentless three-month climb. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c802gvxpyxzo
The EO also specifically calls for research into the potential adverse health impacts of cumulative chemical residue [Glyphosate] exposures, the development of less toxic alternative chemical products to replace current agricultural chemicals, and a long-overdue study of the impacts of glyphosate and other chemicals used as pre-harvest desiccants. This information can serve as the foundation for future reductions in chemical applications to Americans’ food and ethanol supplies. https://www.themahareport.com/p/what-president-trumps-executive-order
Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas
The research combined real-world ocean observations with the models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty. They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse.
The AMOC is a major part of the global climate system and brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic.
Dr Valentin Portmann, at the Inria Centre de recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France and who led the new research, said: “We found that the AMOC is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.”
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the AMOC by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.”
He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought
Josh Mitteldorf asks the question on everybody's mind: Was the human genome engineered by ETs? (We would. Why wouldn't they?) https://mitteldorf.substack.com/p/was-the-human-genome-engineered-by
Human DNA-carrier (pictured with Jenny in garden this morning with Armenian cucumber that got big while hiding)


