Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Mentally Stuck Here

 Painting Scenarios,

  A few excerpts from a recent Michael Hudson interview. Thanks Christine:
​  ​The problem is that Europe cannot withdraw from NATO without dissolving the European Union, which commits military policy to NATO and hence to an immense balance-of-payments drain to purchase high-priced U.S. arms as well as other necessities. If the question is how long Germany and Europe can put political and military loyalty to the United States over their own economic prosperity and employment, the answer by the Greens is that “shock therapy” will help make Europe greener.
​  ​At first glance that is right as heavy industry is shut down. But it seems that Europe’s fuel of the future is coal and cutting down its forests.​..
​..​The United States does indeed care about what happens outside of the United States. That is the essence of imperialism: You take care to conquer other countries economically, financially and technologically, making them dependent on yourself so that you can charge monopoly prices and siphon off their economic surplus for your own financial and corporate elites.
​  ​The aim of U.S. unilateral diplomacy is to establish trade, monetary and military dependency. That is how politicians “care” about what foreign countries are doing – and why the U.S. meddles so much in their political processes.​..
​..​U.S. sanctions and military confrontation are driving other countries to defend themselves by creating alternatives to the US dollar and also to dependency on U.S. suppliers for food, energy and critical technology so that they can avoid being “sanctioned” to force them into compliance with U.S. dictates.
​  ​This break did not occur before because it was not urgent. It has been the U.S. sanctions and threat that the US/NATO war against Russia will persist much longer than Ukraine. It is ultimately a drive against China, and President Biden has said that this will take twenty years or so. For Americans, the threat of losing their ability to control the economic policy of other nations is a threat to what they view as civilization itself.​..
​..The exponential mathematics of interest-bearing debt makes debt crises inevitable. That has been the case for thousands of years. The expansion path of debt is more rapid than that of the underlying “real” economy.
​  ​At some point, either debts will have to be wiped out – annulled – or countries will fall into debt peonage to the creditor powers, just as within creditor nations the economy is polarizing between the creditor One Percent and the increasingly indebted 99 Percent...

​..​The global system will need to move beyond reliance on the US dollar, and turn national banking and credit systems into public utilities. That is the only way that governments can write down debt – mainly, debt owed to themselves – without inciting a political and even violent fight against their moves to free the economy from its debt overhead.

​Charles Hugh Smith on "The Oil Curse"
​  ​The price of oil appears to be reflecting the global recession that's baked into receding stimulus and liquidity and higher inflation. China's attempt to secure Zero Covid is also exerting downward pressure on oil demand. As consumers globally come to grips with layoffs, depleted savings and maxed-out credit cards, demand can be expected to drop further...
​  ​There's another twist to The Oil Curse story: now that the easy-to-get oil is gone, it now requires massive, permanent investments in future production to keep the oil flowing. Governments 
(like the oil Sheikdoms) ​seeing their revenues decline will naturally slash investment to fund the politically essential welfare-graft that enables their grip on power.
​  ​Starved of essential investment, oil production inevitably declines, further reducing revenues of oil-dependent states. This feedback loop is unforgiving: less investment leads to less oil which leads to less revenues which further squeezes investment.
​  ​It's not just the price of oil that matters: how much disposable income consumers have left to buy more goods and services matters, too. Put another way: demand can fall below supply for longer than oil producers can remain solvent.

​  This essay is mostly the history of technocracy, a movement which began in the 1800s, and did some good work in its early years. Some of those who contributed insights and ideas were not fully sold on the product, nor was the product what it has become with the internet, AI and social media, 
nor was Zbigniew Brzezinski Chinese.​ We have largely had a bureaucratic technocracy for a long time, some call it "the deep state".
China: The World’s First Technate – Part 1​  Ian Davis

  ​We might feel anonymous in a crowd, but AI knows where our smartphone is, and what it is transmitting and receiving, and can report on that in detail.
​(In related news, Justin Trudeau says Chinese citizens have the right to protest against COVID lockdowns, because they are not Canadian truck drivers.)
Beijing protesters spooked by phone calls from police

​Paul Craig Roberts: ​COVID Roundup. Was the mRNA Vaccine Intended as a Population Reduction Measure?
​  ​The circumstantial evidence is substantial that it was.  
The multi-decade agitation for population reduction by Bill Gates and a passel of elites and organizations and a decade or longer of research to develop the Covid virus suggest that the “vaccine” had an intent that is not acknowledged, but we will never know unless someone confesses.
​  ​The process of defrocking doctors, medical scientists, and nurse whistleblowers who provide facts unwelcome by authorities continues.

The Birth of the Biostate​ .Thanks Christine
​  ​During the Business 20 (B20) panel held ahead of the G20 summit, Indonesia’s Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin made the same recommendation in even starker terms: “Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO — if you have been vaccinated or tested properly, then you can move around.” In a 132-page document that contains a series of recommendations for the G20, the B20 urged the widespread adoption of digital Covid-19 certificates that would be part of a “technology-enabled ‘always-on’ global health infrastructure”.
 ​ ​Sadikin added that G20 countries have agreed to the proposal and now plan to introduce it as a revision to the IHR framework at the next World Health Assembly, scheduled for May 2023 in Geneva. The idea is that the WHO should be given legally binding powers to implement such measures in the future. This is an attempt to revamp the WHO’s so-called international pandemic treaty — an effort to give it sweeping powers to dictate public health measures to countries with the full backing of international law, potentially overriding their national sovereignty.
​  ​This reform would effectively transform the organisation into something akin to a “world health government” with unprecedented powers to overrule the decisions of national governments in all matters of public health​.​.​.​
​..​A fundamental aspect of this brave new world envisioned by Schwab is the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, which in his own words consists in “the fusion of our physical, digital and biological identities”. Digital IDs, in this sense, should be understood as just the first step in a “revolution” aimed at completely blurring the lines between our bodies and emerging technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, and so on.

​  Edward Slavsquat, in Moscow, says Russia's not too different from Canada, China or New Zealand in some regards. Thanks Robin.
​  ​Whatever Putin’s personal views on mandatory vaccination may be, the reality is that Russia’s capital introduced the country’s first compulsory vaccination policy in mid-June, which required various business sectors to meet a 60% vaccination quota among employees. Workers who refused the shot were at risk of being suspended indefinitely without pay (or, in layman’s terms, “being fired”). Many other regions followed suit with similar (and even more stringent) mandates.
​  ​After the State Duma elections in late September, Russia’s regions began mass adopting vaccine mandates as well as QR-coded “health” passes. All 85 federal subjects of the Russian Federation now have compulsory vaccination rules (some more strict than others). For example, in Leningrad Oblast, all state, municipal and private organizations must ensure 100% of employees are fully vaccinated, or have a medical exemption or proof of prior infection in the last six months. Hold-outs will need to be tested every 72 hours.

​  ​Fertility declines near the end of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 birth declines in Germany and Sweden
​  ​"The Missing Babies of Europe"​  Strongest decline in birth rate (10%) in 100 years begins 9 months following COVID-vaccination peak​

​  ​Blinded by COVID-19 Vaccination
Visual Loss a Cruel Reminder that Vaccine Injury ​(often) ​Strikes within Days

​Grateful for Vision (pictured with central shelves now built into closet)​

Monday, November 28, 2022


 Noncompliant Survivors,

  Thanks for this, Ricc. Katherine Watt has some very plain words, with which I agree. 
  Stopping Conditions , There are no stopping conditions for the emergency COVID vaccination program.
​  ​There is widespread public perception that Covid-19 information campaigns, masks, diagnostic tests, treatments and injectables are components in a public health program using experimental but regulated, ‘safe and effective’ medical products for the purpose of saving lives during a public health emergency.
​  ​They are not.
​  ​Covid-19 information campaigns, Emergency Use Authorized masks, EUA diagnostic tests, EUA treatments and EUA injectables are components of a mass murder operation using fear-mongering, fraud, propaganda, censorship and unidentified biological and chemical weapons.
​  ​Popular misunderstanding is deliberately and forcefully maintained by the political power brokers running the operation.

​  Surplus Energy Economics points out that there is no fundamental economic support for the assumption that the growth trend of recent centuries will continue after a downturn. ​ The slope of economic growth has become more and more gradual in recent decades, and more falsified in its reporting.
​  ​What economies and markets are now experiencing is trend-inflexion. Cyclicality may indeed continue but, from here on, it will do so around downwards-inflected trends. This process of reversal can only be managed if it is recognized.
​   ​The consequences of trend inflexion are readily summarised. On an ex-inflation basis, economic output will deteriorate, whilst the real costs of necessities will carry on rising, even if there are some retreats from the severe spikes experienced in recent times.
​  ​The resulting process of affordability compression will drive contraction in discretionary (non-essential) activities. It will also undermine financial flows from households to the corporate and financial sectors. We can anticipate a rolling process of investment contraction, business failures, defaults and rising unemployment.

Climate Change Policy Makes Europe Too Expensive for Low Cost EV Manufacturing​
​  ​Signs of a global cleaving around the energy sector (are) taking place.  Essentially, western governments’ following the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda which stops using coal, oil and gas to power their economic engine, while the rest of the growing economic world continues using the more efficient and traditional forms of energy to power their economies.

​  ​Within the BBB western group (identified on map in yellow), the logical consequences are increased living costs for those who live in the BBB zone, and increased prices for goods manufactured in the BBB zone.  In the zone where traditional low-cost energy resources continue to be developed (grey on map), we would expect to see a lower cost of living and lower costs to create goods.   Two divergent economic zones based on two different energy systems.
​  ​This potential outcome just seemed to track with the logical conclusion.  The yellow zone also represented by the World Economic Forum, and the gray zone also represented by an expanding BRICS alliance.

The U.S. Shale Boom Is Officially Over​  
​  The days of explosive growth in U.S. shale oil production are over. American oil production is rising, but at a much slower pace than it did before the 2020 crash, and at lower rates than expected a few months ago.​.. 
​..OPEC has regained its position as the world’s swing producer.

​NATO is more  self-destructing than "falling apart":
​  Something quite amazing has just happened.  Following the terrorist attack in Ankara which killed 34 people and injured another 125, Turkish authorities first declared that they will not accept US condolences.  Then the Turks launched a military operation against “Kurdish terrorists in northern Syria“.  Turkey then claimed to have neutralized 184 terrorists.
  What is not mentioned in those articles is that the target of the Turkish strike was the US-run center for the training and education of PKK militants in Rojava.  There are rumors that the Turks gave the US enough warning time to evacuate most of its personnel.
  Does that sound familiar?
  If it does, it is because it is very similar to what the Iranians did when they hit US bases in Iraq following the murder of General Solemani in a US drone strike.
  If the above is true, and rumors are very much “if” and cannot be considered as proven fact, then that means that a NATO member state (Turkey) just attacked a US base and, like Iran, got away with it...
​..​What does all this mean practically?
​  ​It means that even if the Russians decided to strike at a NATO country, the tensions would go through the roof, but it is highly UN-likely that any US President would allow any action which could result in a full-scale nuclear war!  Remember, for Russia, this is an existential war, no less than WWII, whereas no Anglo leader would ever dare launch a suicidal attack on Russian forces which would most likely result in the full obliteration of the US/UK and any other country participating (for example by hosting forward deployed standoff weapons) in such an attack.
​  ​Does that mean that we have to anticipate a Russian strike on Poland, Romania or the UK?
​  ​No, not at all.  In fact, it would be very dangerous for the Russians to only leave a stark choice to the Hegemony: admit defeat or commit suicide.  And since the Russians do have escalation dominance (that is to say that they have balanced capabilities from the small-arms fire level to a full intercontinental nuclear war, and with all the stages in between these two extremes) they, unlike the US/NATO. are not stuck between the choice of surrender or suicide.
​  ​That being said, it would also be misguided to assume that Russia “would never dare strike a NATO member state”

Electric War, Russia fails to respect Napoleonic traditions of warfare. Pepe Escobar​
​  ​It’s always crucial to remember that between 1991 and 1999 the equivalent of the present entire household wealth of Russia was stolen and transferred overseas, mostly to London. Now the same usual suspects are trying to ruin Russia with sanctions, as “new Hitler” Putin stopped the looting.
​  ​The difference is that the plan of using Ukraine as just a pawn in their game is not working.
​  ​On the ground, what has been going on so far are mostly skirmishes, and a few real battles. But with Moscow massing fresh troops for a winter offensive, the Ukrainian Army may end up completely routed.
​  ​Russia didn’t look so bad – considering the effectiveness of its mincing machine artillery strikes against Ukrainian fortified positions, and recent planned retreats or positional warfare, keeping casualties down while smashing Ukrainian withering firepower.
​  ​The collective West believes it holds the Ukraine proxy war card. Russia bets on reality, where economic cards are food, energy, resources, resource security and a stable economy.
​  ​Meanwhile, as if the energy-suicide EU did not have to face a pyramid of ordeals, they can surely expect to have knocking on their door at least 15 million desperate Ukrainians escaping from villages and cities with zero electrical power.

​   Queen Elizabeth II of England had multiple myeloma, a cancer of the blood-forming elements of bone-marrow, in her final years, according to this.
​  A future biography of Her Majesty authored by a close friend of Prince Philip stated that the Queen had bone marrow cancer, with bone pain being the most prevalent symptom.

​  Angus Dalgleish MD, Professor of Oncology at St George’s, University of London, wrote this letter to Dr. Kamran Abbasi, the Editor in Chief of the BMJ. It was written in support of a colleague’s plea to Dr. Abbasi that the BMJ make valid informed consent for Covid vaccination a priority topic.
​  As an Oncologist I Am Seeing People With Stable Cancer Rapidly Progress After Being Forced to Have a Booster
​..​Even within my own personal contacts I am seeing B cell-based disease after the boosters. They describe being distinctly unwell a few days to weeks after the booster – one developing leukaemia, two work colleagues Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and an old friend who has felt like he has had Long Covid since receiving his booster and who, after getting severe bone pain, has been diagnosed as having multiple metastases from a rare B cell disorder.
​  ​I am experienced enough to know that these are not the coincidental anecdotes that many suggest, especially as the same pattern is being seen in Germany, Australia and the USA.
​  ​The reports of innate immune suppression after mRNA for several weeks would fit, as all these patients to date have melanoma or B cell based cancers, which are very susceptible to immune control – and that is before the reports of suppressor gene suppression by mRNA in laboratory experiments.
​  ​This must be aired and debated immediately.

​  House cats carry Toxoplasma Gondii, and about 1/3 of humans are chronically infected. T.gondii infection in humans is linked to aberrant behaviors and some forms of mental illness.  Thanks Ricc.
​  T. gondii is known to infect wildlife, but few studies have examined its behavioural effects. In one work, infected hyenas in Kenya became more likely to be eaten by lions2. Connor Meyer and Kira Cassidy, wildlife ecologists at the University of Montana in Missoula, thought of a rare opportunity to link infection with behaviour in wild wolves: data on grey wolves (Canis lupus) collected intensively in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, over nearly 27 years. Some wolves in Yellowstone live near, and sometimes steal prey from, cougars (Puma concolor), which are known to carry the parasite. Wolves could become infected by eating the cats — or their faeces.
 The team looked at 256 blood samples from 229 wolves, which had been carefully watched throughout their lives, and had their life histories and social status recorded. Meyer and Cassidy found that infected wolves were 11 times more likely than uninfected ones to leave their birth family to start a new pack, and 46 times more likely to become pack leaders — often the only wolves in the pack that breed.
  “We got that result and we just open-mouth stared at each other,” Meyer says. “This is way bigger than we thought it would be.”

​  ​Negative Effects of Latent Toxoplasmosis on Mental Health​ 
  ​The typical symptom associated with toxoplasmosis was anxiety, and the typical toxoplasmosis-associated disorders were autism (OR = 4.78), schizophrenia (OR = 3.33), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (OR = 2.50), obsessive compulsive disorder (OR = 1.86), antisocial personality disorder (OR = 1.63), learning disabilities (OR = 1.59), and anxiety disorder (OR = 1.48).

  ​"Latent" toxoplasma infection is about 3 times as prevalent in people who are in car accidents as it is in the control-group, too.

  Treatment does not get rid of encysted Toxoplasma in the brain and other tissues. "Latent" Toxoplasmosis persists after treatment.

Grew Up With Cats  (pictured with closet in progress)

Monday, November 21, 2022

Building Trust


  Perfect Storm for the Global Economy, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrey Belousov   Thanks Svet.
  "There is a strong gap between the scale of the problems and the tools that are currently being offered to solve them."    [Use Google-Translate]
My own thoughts: 
  There is an implicit assumption about what "tools" are being openly proposed.

1) "Halting the war in Ukraine" seems to be a polite way of saying "Europe, coordinate business arrangements with Russia again".
  It's necessary, but not sufficient to restore a stable, working system of global trade and finance.
  The apparent goal of western finance was to have Russian resources without the Russian government, which is nationalist. That access to resources, essentially to loot them, was necessary for the growth of the western financial system, which stopped growing in the second half of 2018, by my reckoning. You may well disagree, but it stopped growing by 2019, which caused financial problems, like the "repo-crisis" in August-September 2019.
There was a loss of trust between the largest western global financial institutions, which froze overnight lending.

2) "Raising interest rates". This "destroys demand" in the economy by imposing austerity. It does stop some of the excesses caused by almost-free-money, but the western financial system has crept forward by gradual reduction of interest rates since around 1983. Real interest rates were often negative, and have remained negative since 2008. It is the end of that road. Interest rates must rise and that destroys the system of rolling debt forward at lower and lower interest to stimulate economy.

 "Money" is currently defined as "promises" to repay debt at interest. Trust in eventual-repayment is waning. 
Trust must be rational, not delusional, to maintain a vast economic system. 

  Trust is slow to build. Who has been investing in the building of trust since 2008? 
The Fed has, but within an increasingly untrustworthy US national system. The Fed can't really be more trustworthy than Washington DC, London and Brussels (NATO). There is a lot of habitual momentum in the $USsystem, but once that tips over, change is likely to seem very sudden.

  Russia and China have been working and investing to build trust, but that is thrown into question by sanctions against them, by the increasingly untrustworthy owners of the current $US financial system. Still, it's a lack of trust in the proposed replacement-system (BRICS+, belt-and-road).

  History shows that changes to a global trade system seem to take a decade or more and a big war, as in WW-1 and WW-2.
History also shows that people suffer and die, and that growing vegetables helps the people who are able to do so.
  Another historical feature is that countries with enough internal resources per-capita fare batter. 
That's Russia #1 and US #2. 
  Efficient use of the resources within any system is similarly important, and Russia appears (for all the corruption) to have a better national system of meeting national needs. The US system seems to be corrupt and inefficient, and to depend upon external flows of wealth to sustain function. Those can be expected to stop in a crisis. The corruption is an inefficiency problem. 
  The owners hold the option to shut the system down if they don't get to siphon off a big skim at every level, so there are thousands of selfish fingers on economic Kill-buttons.

  What history argues to be necessary is to take away all of those corrupt "entitlements" to cuts of the pie, by eliminating a lot of that "ownership" of the systems of production and distribution. That means "debt repudiation", which did not happen after WW-1, which was the proximal cause of WW-2, where a lot of debt-restructuring did take place, encouraging economic growth in Europe and Japan.

  The owners are in control of the system, so they won't allow repudiation of much of their rights-to-skim until they lose control, but they get to push the Kill-buttons first.

  Reviving a system after that should be harder than merging into another system which is already up-and-running. 
The Chinese government got to merge into the western economic system while the cold-war was still ongoing, so China got a better deal than the "defeated" USSR, Russia, etc. 

  The new system is not yet operational, though many pieces are in place and starting to get tested. The old system is trying hard to prevent the new, competing system from becoming operational. 
  It does not look like there is going to be a smooth transition,since the new system can't get fully operational until the old system, which is depleting itself to fight the new system, breaks badly. 
"Confiscating" $300 billion from Russiais an example of the old system breaking trust, in order to reduce trust in a rising threat.

  Where might trust be found in global finance? Bitcoin? Something like Bitcoin could be useful between central banks and nation-states, but Bitcoin only exists by mutual agreement and an intact global internet.
  Gold bullion used to work. Central banks, by all accounts, keep enough gold bullion on hand (or in "trusted" repositories) to make a transition back to a gold standard at any time. (Ukraine's gold somehow went away in airplanes a few years ago.)
  The question is that of what to "price" gold at to enable that transition. It seems like a factor of 8-10 "price increase" of gold, relative to fiat currencies, would be necessary, as a ballpark figure. Watch for it. 
  Larger daily increases in the "price" of gold seem to have suddenly been allowed, starting a couple of weeks ago. $40-$50 in a day was allowed in quick succession. Previously gold did not rise more than $20 in a day.
  The 30-dayGold chart shows that stair-step well.
That seems like a signal to me. Others may disagree. 

A Grand Unified Theory of the FTX Disaster , Matthew Crawford    Thanks Luc  (It's long)
  Under a pandemic-induced fog of war, the military-banking complex may be enabling an elite pedophile class of blackmail agents at least partially organized around MIT to establish a Global Digital Central Bank to enslave the human race, cull populations, and subject them to genetic information control.
  One additional thought worth thinking about is whether these seemingly related global events were at least somewhat telegraphed, and whether this is the reason power consolidation occurred in China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia over the past few years. One way to retain national strength in the midst of Fifth-Generation warfare involving a constant stream of confusing signals is to line the ducks up in a row and move as a single unit.
  In all this, I make my best effort to make no mistake about where I mix fact and speculation, but understand that conversations trying to unravel the Bigger Picture, including the very real spectre of sexual blackmailing dominating global politics are being had among the world's cognitive elite and power players. They've been going on for years now.

  Ben Hunt has a lot of insight and details of the financial progression during the successful marketing of the nice young genius with the magic-money-machine.
The Story Arc of SBF and FTX

​  Andrew Korybko looks at the initiative of Russia, India and Iran to balance influences of China and Pakistan (itself influenced by the CIA) upon Afghanistan.​   
  The “Informal Russia India Iran Troika” on Afghanistan
​  ​The most important takeaway was the informal Troika that was just established by Russia, India, and Iran. These three don’t intend to compete against China and Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan in any unfriendly way, but rather endeavor to pragmatically “balance” it by giving that country’s de facto Taliban rulers an alternative to those two. From the perspective of the group’s self-interests, potentially disproportionate dependence on China and Pakistan is disadvantageous.

​  Moon of Alabama on Russian destruction of high voltage power transformers in the Ukrainian grid to impair the ability of the Ukrainian military to move men and war-supplies by the (all electric) train system.​
​  ​The targeting of 330 kilovolt transformers in various switching stations has cut some 50% of the distribution capability of Ukraine's electricity network. These transformers weigh up to 200 tons. There are no replacements. You do not buy them at the next corner but will have to order them with years of lead time. As far as I can tell Russia is currently the only producer of transformers of that type.

  ​The US works hard to turn-around relations with China, bringing in 97 year old "friend of China" and infamous 2008 head of AIG, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg​.
​  ​A significant and unexpected new Wall Street Journal report has revealed that a few days prior to the Xi-Biden meeting last week at the G20 summit in Bali, the two countries embarked upon a private back-channel dialogue of top policy advisers and business executives in New York, which was approved by both governments.
​  ​The meeting was described by Retired Adm. Mike Mullen as seeking to prevent the continued "downward trajectory" in US-China relations "at a dangerous time." Beijing is relying on an American businessman described as an "old friend of China" with a long successful track record of positive dealings in China: insurance executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg. "As the two great powers of the time, we need to try to turn this around," Mullen commented of the closed-door talks earlier this month.

  ​This story is about a Russian military airplane promotional video at a Chinese air-show, which shows the plane blowing up a ship. The computer-generated ship in the computer-generated video turns out (awkwardly) to be a Chinese destroyer. Nobody knows how this happened. The video production was at least partly outsourced to India.​ India says they didn't-do-it.
  There is open speculation that Russia's real enemy is now declared to be China. (If that were propaganda, whose interests would it serve?)

Texas Prepares Military (not-quite)Tanks For Southern Border After Governor Abbott Declares Invasion
​  ​Three days after Texas Governor Greg Abbott invoked the state's "Invasion Clauses" to tackle the record-setting influx of migrants illegally crossing the southern border, a new planning document obtained by Army Times and The Texas Tribune reveals Texas Military Department officials are planning to deploy a fleet of fully tracked armored personnel carriers and National Guard troops.
​  ​Texas Military Department officials issued the order Thursday to the headquarters leading Operation Lone Star reveals. It detailed the deployment of ten M113 armored personnel carrier vehicles to the border.

​  From Thursday, specific to Texas:  Governor Abbott Directs TEA, Superintendents To Prohibit COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates For Students

Moms Were Right: Acetaminophen During Pregnancy Can Cause ADHD, Autism​  
  ​“[We] found consistent associations between acetaminophen bu​r​den and ADHD and acetaminophen burden and ASD across strata of potential confounders, including maternal indication, substance use, preterm birth, and child age and sex, for which point estimates for the ORs vary from 2.3 to 3.5 for ADHD and 1.6 to 4.1 for ASD.

​Jessica Rose Ph.D. looks at the US VAERS, suddenly changing the government statistics.​ They look much better this week!
​  ​The foreign data set was gutted this week in VAERS and the cancer signal was halved, the myocarditis dose 3 response signal was lost and 994 spontaneous abortions/still births were dropped

​Thanks Luc , The Killing Fields of Samoa​ , Ah KhanSyed MD, Ph.D.​
​  And you’re asking “What are you talking about? What happened in Samoa?”.
​  ​A lot happened. All in one month in November 2019 - just before the PANDEMIC™ struck, and you will see that the similarities with the PANDEMIC™ are eerie - down to the same forced lockdowns and forced vaccinations that were only ever intended to enforce medical fascism on a population - because every pandemic plan document prior to 2020 said they were not helpful to contain a viral outbreak.
​  ​So let’s then turn to Samoa (and neighbouring Fiji and Tonga) in 2019.​..
Why did a measles outbreak occur in 3 neighbouring islands at the same time, just weeks after a delivery of UNICEF vaccines to those very islands?
Why did the death rate in the Samoan outbreak reach such high levels far in excess of what would be expected in a country with access to healthcare?
  From Peter McCullough MD's blog:  Electron Cryotomography of SARS-CoV-2 Virions
At least there are electron-microscope pictures of these very small entities. They are easier to destroy than to see. 
It is essentially impossible to isolate virions without destroying them. Looking at them destroys them, for instance.

Building a Closet (pictured) 

Friday, November 18, 2022

Doing Better

 Working On It,

  I'm inclined to think we humans need to find ways to nurture healthy forest ecosystems which may nourish us, and also draw moisture from the oceans, which will fall upon them as rain, that "Biotic Pump" thing they do so well.  Forests create atmospheric rivers from the oceans, and the falling rain creates terrestrial rivers back.

  We know that old-growth "apex" forests do this, even in northern climes, and that having tall old trees of local species, intermediate trees and bushes and herbs, in a living web, interconnected by roots and beneficial fungi, is a sophisticated mature ecosystem. The recreation of the mix of plants in an apex forest can create a quickie-apex-forest, which is the Miyawaki Method of "Afforestation"

  During the years of wars between warlords in Japan, the 1600s and 1700s, much of Japan's forest was cut for timber and fuel. In the 1800s this was reversed by law, and Japanese forestry, Silviculture became an art form, assisted sometimes by German experts in those days.

  Silviculture arose in Europe, with largely German nomenclature. It focuses mainly upon harvesting wood optimally, from well maintained forests. It long precedes the knowledge that forests might draw atmospheric-rivers of rain to themselves. Dense forests with groups of plants that cooperate well together draw the rain best, but may not produce goods that humans need and desire as monoculture pine forests for timber and fuel. Silviculture has been adapted to the tropics

  "Forest Gardening" of "food forests" seeks to create complementary and cooperative forest ecosystems which also provide food for humans.
  That is easier said than done, partly because it is so difficult to harvest food in a dense forest except at the edges of it. Animals arise within any forest which do readily harvest forest edibles. People often end up hunting and eating those animals, but that is also hard within the dense forest.

  The question which naturally arises for creative humans is whether long-lived fruit-bearing trees can be managed in such a way that the fruit is available from below, and can be gathered, stored and transported effectively for human use. When there is a continuous overstory of tall trees a local climate is created within the forest. It is also darker. Can the productive overstory be maintained well enough to claim biotic-pump rainfall patterns, by atmospheric-river induction? Can the soil be maintained? What tree crops could this be applied to, and in what regions? It seems that in the places that have the right soil and climate conditions to try this, that it would be a very good thing to attempt. It would require irrigation for a long time, before large enough areas could be forested to begin to induce atmospheric-river effects. How much of any tree-crop can be used? How can it be stored and transported? Are there enough tree crops to plant in enough areas to make this form of farming economically sustainable?

  I'd like to try it with avocados, myself, but I am still at the point of finding Mexican avocados cold-tolerant enough to reliably make it through winter freezes without significant damage to the trees. Each avocado seedling is a unique individual, which is why they are grafted onto rootstocks before making large plantings. Seedling trees require 5-8 years to make their first fruit, before it can be tasted. This is gonna' take awhile. Avocado oil is a good cooking oil.

Welcome to the Oil Death Spiral, Consciousness of Sheep (UK, where it is a diesel-fuel death spiral, already)
Oil bad, so don't invest. Oil running out, so no trucks and diesel machinery, so economic collapse, so death-is-green. Thanks AFKTT.

UK Citizens Pay The Highest Electricity Bills In The World

​  Pepe Escobar on the BRICS++++ developments taking place now.
​  ​On BRICS, crucially, Lavrov confirmed that “over a dozen countries” are lining up for membership, including Iran: “We expect the work on coordinating the criteria and principles that should underlie BRICS expansion to not take much time”.
​  ​But first, the five members need to analyze the ground-breaking repercussions of an expanded BRICS+.
​  ​Once again: contrast. What is the EU’s “response” to these developments? Coming up with yet another sanctions package against Iran, targeting officials and entities “connected with security affairs” as well as companies, for their alleged “violence and repressions”.
​  ​“Diplomacy”, collective West-style, barely registers as bullying.
​  Back to the real economy – as in the gas front – the national interests of Russia, Iran and Turkiye are increasingly intertwined; and that is bound to influence developments in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, and will be a key factor to facilitate Erdogan’s re-election next year.
​  ​As it stands, Riyadh for all practical purposes has performed a stunning 180-degree maneuver against Washington via OPEC+. That may signify, even in a twisted way, the onset of a process of unification of Arab interests, guided by Moscow.
​  ​Stranger things have happened in modern history. Now appears to be the time for the Arab world to be finally ready to join the Quad that really matters: Russia, India, China, and Iran.

​  ​The Biden administration on Thursday suggested that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman be granted immunity from a lawsuit filed against him over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
​  ​In a court filing, the administration noted the crown prince’s appointment as prime minister in September, which they said made him “the sitting head of government of a foreign state.”
​  ​The filing noted, however, that the Biden administration, in making the immunity determination, takes “no view on the merits of the present suit and reiterates its unequivocal condemnation of the heinous murder of Jamal Khashoggi.”
​  ​Ultimately, a judge will have the final say on whether or not to grant immunity to the crown prince.

​G20 Summit in Bali, Pepe Escobar again​
​  ​The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs preferred to cut to the chase, selecting the Top Two highlights.
1. Xi told Biden – rather, his earpiece – that Taiwan independence is simply out of the question.
2. Xi also hopes that NATO, EU and US will engage in “comprehensive dialogue” with Moscow.
​  ​Asian cultures – be they Balinese or Confucianist – are non-confrontational. Xi laid out three layers of common interests: prevent conflict and confrontation, leading to peaceful coexistence; benefit from each other’s development; and promote post-COVID global recovery, tackle climate change and face regional problems via coordination.
​ ​Significantly, the 3h30 meeting happened at the Chinese delegation’s residence in Bali, and not at the G20 venue. And it was requested by the White House.
​  ​Biden, according to the Chinese, affirmed that the US does not seek a New Cold War; does not support “Taiwan independence”; does not support “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan”; does not seek “decoupling” from China; and does not want to contain China.
​  ​Now tell that to the Straussians/neo-cons/neoliberalcons bent on containing China. Reality spells out that Xi has few reasons to take “Biden” – rather the combo writing every script in the background – at face value.​..
..The traditional group photo ahead of the G20 – a staple of every summit in Asia – had to be delayed. Because – who else – “Biden” and Sunak, US and UK, refused to be in the same picture with Lavrov...
​..The Western spin is that “most G20 countries” wanted to condemn Russia in Ukraine. Nonsense. Diplomatic sources hinted it may be in fact a 50/50 split. Condemnation comes from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, UK, US and EU. Non-condemnation from Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye and of course Russia.​..
​..The fog thickened because on the backdrop of the G20, the US and Russia were talking in Ankara, represented by CIA director William Burns and SVR (Foreign Intel) director Sergei Naryshkin.
No one knows what exactly was being negotiated.​..
​..The Americans suddenly interested in talking, and Macron and Scholz approaching Lavrov, point to the heart of the matter: the EU and the UK may not survive next winter, 2023-2024, without Gazprom.​..
​..Any additional, unpredictable costs throughout 2023 mean that the EU economy will completely collapse: industry shutdown across the spectrum, euro in free fall, rise of inflation, debt corroding every latitude from the Club Med nations to France and Germany.
​  ​Dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen, leading the European Commission (EC), of course should be discussing all that – in the interests of EU nations – with global players in Bali. Instead her only agenda, once again, was demonization of Russia.

Ukraine Has Lost 40% Of Energy System As Kyiv Sees First Snow, Freezing Temps​ 
  ​In a rare occurrence, most of the western city of Lviv had also been plunged into darkness this week, after what authorities called the biggest wave of Russian strikes on power facilities since the invasion began.
​  ​"Photos of Kyiv draped in darkness have become a shareable illustration of winter in Ukraine this year: dark, cold, dangerous," observed The Hill. "Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is under attack from Russia, which has failed to defeat Ukrainian forces on the battlefield and is now once again targeting civilians."
​  ​An estimated 100 missiles had rained down on Ukrainian cities over the span of just a couple hours on Tuesday, chiefly targeting the energy grid.

​Moon of Alabama (German) on Ukraine trying to hit incoming Russian missiles and hitting people in Poland with an S-300 instead, but saying that Russia did it, anyway.​

From Vineyard of the Saker blog
​  T​he Poles hate the Ukrainians just as much as they hate Russians.  The Ukrainians, by the way, hate the Poles no less than they hate Russians (and Jews). The only difference is that the Polish anti-Ukrainian hate is laced with contempt whereas their anti-Russian hate is laced with fear.  Add to this picture the Brits with their own imperial phantom pains and sense of racial superiority over the “continental” Europeans (“fog over the channel, Europe isolated“) and you quickly see that there is plenty of hate going around amongst these “allies”.
​  ​So what we are dealing with is an entire pack hate-filled of hyenas.
​  ​The Poles and the Ukies have one main thing in common – they want NATO to wage war on Russia: the Ukies want this to simply survive and the Poles to grab a piece of the Ukraine.

​  Jessica Rose Ph.D.  graphs fewer new pregnancies but a lot more miscarriages after COVID-vaccine rollout in an OB/GYN practice that keeps its own records.​
Real time obstetrician/gynecologist's data on new patients and miscarriages for 2021 and 2022

​  ​Former White House COVID-19 adviser Dr. Scott Atlas sees multiple reasons for an investigation into Dr. Anthony Fauci, the outgoing director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

​  ​The G20 has issued a formal decree promoting vaccine passports as preparation for any future pandemic response in its final communique. Indonesian Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin, speaking on the matter on behalf of the G20 host country, had earlier in the summit called for a "digital health certificate" using WHO standards.
​  ​Sadikin advocated for that he dubbed a "digital health certificate" which shows whether a person has been "vaccinated or tested properly" so that only then "you can move around".

​  ​FTX's new CEO and liquidator, John Ray III,  who also oversaw the unwinding and liquidation of Enron, admits that "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."

  Charles Hugh Smith,​ ​FTX: The Dominoes of Financial Fraud Have Yet to Fall
  ​What you will find is insight into the real innovation of FTX: FTX compressed the entire playbook and history of financial fraud into one brief cycle
of the credulous bamboozled, Charles Ponzi bested and creative accounting being revealed for what it really is, fraud.
​  ​All financial frauds share the same set of tools. The toolbox of financial fraud, whether it is traditional or crypto-based, contains variations of these basic mechanisms...  [listed and explained] ...
​  Note that there are quasi-legal versions of some of these tools. The full exposure to the risks inherent in extreme leverage and illiquidity can be cloaked, buried in off-balance sheet assets and liabilities, etc., while pages of mind-numbing disclosures were duly signed by blinded-by-greed marks.
​  ​These quasi-legal versions are just as prone to unraveling and collapse as the blatantly fraudulent varieties. Properly disclosed leverage and illiquidity are just as prone to unraveling as undisclosed leverage and illiquidity.
​  ​Mismatches of duration, liquidity and risk are just as toxic to full-disclosure firms as they are to fraudulent firms.
​  ​This is why we can predict the dominoes of FTX's financial fraud have yet to fall. When there are mismatches in counterparty asset durations and liquidity, assets that theoretically cover loans that are called can't be sold or can only be sold at ruinous discounts.​..
​  Once assets are revealed as worth far less than claimed, insolvency is the inevitable result.

​  Here is a case from Tom Luongo's blog that FTX may have been designed to be a Ponzi-scheme-for-Ponzi-schemes, suking up all of the non-crypto currency in the cryptocurrency bubble, then going POOF! 
  This would have been a planned attack by the financial world on the crypto-currency world. It might have been planned to go a little longer, but Bitcoin got hammered recently and sucked a lot of money out of the cryptocurrency bubble, crashing the FTX Ponzi. This fits with the rapid rise and excellent political protection of FTX and SBF. We know FTX was the biggest Democratic donor behind George Soros when it was just months old. Ukraine seems to have "invested" $US aid from the Bidadmin in FTX. A lot of notional-wealth in cryptocurrency is no more. Maybe that was the plan.

​  ​Twitter On Lock Out After Mass Resignation Exodus; Operations At Risk
(If Twitter survives it will be​come​ something different.)
 ​Hundreds of Twitter's remaining employees have reportedly resigned ahead of Elon Musk’s “extremely hardcore” cultural reset of the company. After Musk gave an ultimatum to his employees to either commit to the company’s new “hardcore” work environment or leave, many more workers declined to sign on than he expected, potentially putting Twitter’s operations at risk, according to Bloomberg sources, as well as internal Slack messages seen by The Verge and employee tweets.
​  ​On Thursday afternoon, so many employees decided to take severance that it created a cloud of confusion over which people should still have access to company property.

Clinton-linked Dark Money Group Targets Twitter Advertisers​
​  ​The letter insists that free speech will only invite “disinformation, hate, and harassment” and that “[u]nder the guise of ‘free speech,’ [Musk’s] vision will silence and endanger marginalized communities, and tear at the fraying fabric of democracy.”
​  ​Among other things, the letter demands “algorithmic accountability,”  a notable inclusion in light of Democratic politicians demanding enlightened algorithms to protect citizens from their own bad choices or thoughts.

​Growing Food Tokens (pictured with winter garden rows coming-in a little more)​

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

World-3 War

 Civil Humans,

  People have various thoughts about there being so many people on earth, and exceeding the long-term carrying capacity for humans. 
Nobody wants to volunteer to die.
  Some people put the question off by claiming that it is not a real problem for one reason or another. There are support groups for these various non-problem scenario beliefs. 
  Some people find group-support around picking one particular threat, such as global-warming, and working on that to the exclusion of other threats, such as running out of diesel fuel for the trains and trucks that bring us our food, or heating fuel, or electricity.

  Some people put their efforts towards global population reduction. Bill Gates advocated for that as early as the late 1990s, and liked vaccines as a means of fertility reduction in the early 2000s, along with social improvements like education for women, modern careers and good health care for children.

  A common meme is that we humans have been bad and dirty, and should be ashamed for what we have done to the earth. 
The upshot of that usually seems to be that we should buy solar-panels, a Prius or a Tesla, so I suspect such shaming is a form of niche-marketing.

  People personify Earth, Gaia, as our mother, and I like that, but then they feel like we are more powerful than Mom and are hurting her. 
I see that, but Mom has been around so much longer than we can begin to fathom, and has been through so much catastrophic destruction, yet Mom has still given rise to more and more forms of life, including us. We have not been here very long, and we just hit adolescence. We are driving sports cars, playing with guns and we keep playing with fire.  Mom probably hopes that we will grow up, start gardening, and stop breaking so much stuff, but we show plenty of promise.

  It is possible that Mom/Gaia finds adult humans seeking Divine guidance to be even more useful in her grand adaptations of planetary life. I think she provides guidance to those most receptive to it. Noah presents an archetypal example of an adult human who was extremely attuned to this kind of guidance. 
  Divine guidance from benevolent Gaia, or "God" could improve human survival odds against predation by our elite owners. (I'll refer to our elite owner-class as "Homo obliterans", if I may.) We may also read about animals fleeing to high ground when the waves suck out of the bay before a tsunami, while humans gawk. Mom could help us in those situations, too.

  Is it bad that humans have brought fossil carbon and fossil water to the planetary surface? It might be a good thing, long term. A little too early to judge yet.
Some humans are capable of stewardship of life, as gardeners or diversified farmers. What if life-stewards preferentially survive a big cull by the owners, or a meteor strike, or a recurring micronova, ice age or flood?

  Svet sent an academic update from Gaya Herrington, which puts fresh data into the updated version of the World-3 computer model, used in the 1972 Limits To Growth projections. Those projected graphic representations of how human industrial society might hit planetary limits in time. Limits of oil were already apparent in 1972. Pollution building up was also a big and obvious problem. The most recent update of The Limits To Growth was the 30 year update. 
To compliment Gaya Harrington's paper, a PDF, I found this article about the paper from last year, so I can copy the graphs:      

BAU is the famous "Business As Usual" graph from 1972. It has tracked our unfolding reality pretty well over the years, though births and deaths were both down a bit from projections. The resulting human population has been quite close to projections. My read of that graph has always been that industrial output looked like it peaked just before 2020. I personally think industrial output peaked in late 2018, and that made for problems in the world of finance.
BAU2 is the answer to, "What if there is really a lot more oil, gas and coal?" "Business As Usual-2" doubles the fossil fuel estimated to exist. This projection starts to diverge from BAU right around 2020, when one looks at industrial output and pollution. Pollution rises and rises in this scenario. Population rises another decade before falling, but falls harder, and is lower by 2100 than in BAU. Double the oil lets the game go for 10 more years before it crashes, but it crashes worse in a more polluted world.
SW is "Stabilized World", a world where people across the world, rich and poor alike, cooperate to use less energy, make less plastic and waste, reduce family sizes and harmonize human needs with the needs of our Mother Planet. This model does not track the reality, which we are living. We're not doing that yet.
CT is "Comprehensive Technology" scenario. This model assumes both the doubling of fossil fuels and the use of technology to decrease industrial damage to the planetary ecosphere. It is sort of like getting twice as much fuel and a bit more time to accomplish SW, a second chance, using technology, not altruism.

  BAU and BAU2 start to diverge around 2020. Why? It is the decline in fossil-fuel availability, assumed in BAU, right? 
CT, the high-tech-solution world, also assumes double the resources, which is the BAU2 assumption, so those two, assuming double the oil/gas look very much alike until after 2030 when the pollution in BAU2 becomes more extreme. 
BAU2 and CT looked more like the current state of affairs than did BAU in 2020 quite possibly because fracking pushed the decline of oil and gas a little bit farther out than was projected in 1972. In 2014 the original BAU model was still tracking reality best.
  Both BAU2 and CT assume double the resources estimated in 1972 for BAU. Since oil is the rate-limiting resource, it has the most effect as it declines.
The assumption of more-fuel wouldn't cause divergence of BAU2 and CT projections from BAU until the oil and gas start to decline. 

  I think oil+natural-gas-liquids  are now in terminal-decline, and the observed measurements might well fall between BAU and BAU2 in the next few years. 
The fact that fracking technology got more oil out of some declining field quickly, and is an expensive means of extraction, may mean that a few years of future oil were pulled-forward. That would cause the decline of both industrial output and food production to be more rapid. Human population would decline sooner and more rapidly, as a result.

  "Homo obliterans" is aware of these projected trends, but has other means of modifying them, other scenarios not presented here, such as drastic-population-reduction. Drastic-Population-Reduction is the specialty of our Homo obliterans elites. 
After decades of considering why we have sociopathic elites in the world, I believe that the reduction of human population during the overshoot of environmental carrying capacity for our species is the useful worldly function of Homo obliterans. Homo obliterans is the Apex-Predator's-Apex-Predator.
  I also postulate that there is an existing subset of humans, members of humanity who are helpfully guided by Gaia/Divinity, who I'll call Homo sapiens(+). Perhaps Homo sapiens(+) can steward a world which will no longer require the services of Homo obliterans.  Homo sapiens(+) might make Homo obliterans redundant. 
  Homo obliterans is notably impervious to spiritual guidance, and might fare poorly in an unforeseen catastrophe, compared to forewarned Homo sapiens(+).
Homo obliterans working-groups might be preferentially predated by other Homo obliterans working-groups. Homo sapiens(+) are typically non-threatening.
  The improved survival of Homo sapiens(+) might be an important factor after a Selection-Event, but there is no reason to believe that Homo sapiens(+) would breed-true. All human subtypes would still be present during and after a selection-event. Selection events might last centuries or longer, like ice-ages. The mixture of learned and inherited traits in society could change over time. Human culture adapts, not just genetically, but also through "memes", useful patterns of thinking, living and socializing. Memes are passed down as customs, concepts and values.

 There may be a rapid reduction of the total human population in this decade. I think Homo obliterans have made arrangements for population-reduction to take place through means such as bioweapons, famine, and impairment of industrial life-support systems through war.  

  The WEF has a project to control human behavior through "owning nothing" and "being happy" with smartphones, brain-implants, electronic currency and social credit scoring to tightly constrain human behavior, not leaving anything to guesswork. It looks like they are aiming for CT "comprehensive" technology world.
  Some unmodified Homo obliterans would presumably still be in place to oversee the human population and make important decisions. They would still need to fly to meetings and nature preserves in private jets. The core capabilities of industrial economy would also need to remain intact, though reductions in output would be acceptable. Industry would primarily serve the owners, their essential human functionaries and technicians.
  It looks as if the rapid reduction of population in the 2020s could compensate for the reduction of available oil. Both reductions would contribute to falls in projected pollution, compared to BAU2. The fall in human population would obviate the requirement to invest more in cleaner industrial technology, a cost-saving for the owners.  It looks like CT is the WEF-preferred model
  I personally don't think there is enough oil to run this scenario as depicted. Making people into cyborgs is a dead-end for our species. Hello Monsanto!

  There are competing models, which we can also evaluate through The Limits To Growth. I am not sure of the Russian model. It is either a private secret, or it is what is publicized as the multipolar-world model of trade. Pollution is not much addressed, however fake plans to reduce pollution could be even worse.

  Deng Xiaopeng, the modern visionary leader of 21st Century China, who somehow survived the Cultural Revolution, was very much inspired by The Limits To Growth, as I have read more than once. He set out a course for the rapid industrialization and modernization of China within the time-envelope remaining in the BAU projections regarding industrial production output and resource availability. Deng's goals for China appear to have been achieved. 
  Xi Jinping seems similarly practical, though his task does not require as radical a change in national trajectory. 
Inside China, something like the centralized electronic control of each individual's human economy is already in place. China also allows for an entrepreneurial business model. Some humans must take initiative to accomplish economic expansion. Outside China, a multipolar-world of trade and transit is envisioned. 
Human-rights issues will be compartmentalized locally, within nation-states, which are sovereign.

  What might be gained through the multipolar-world model is better economic efficiency of fossil fuel use.  We can expect the relative decline of the most carbon intensive economies of the collective west, and the growth of poorer economies, such as India and Cambodia, where baseline use of oil per capita is lower. Coal, though dirty and polluting, will probably be used until it is no longer economically accessible. Those societies which burn coal will have an economic advantage over those which do not. Coal is used to produce concrete, steel and electricity.
  The increased fuel efficiency gained by the decline of the most fuel-intensive economies may trend towards the SW "stabilized world" projections, but with more pollution. The cost of reducing pollution must necessarily be borne by reducing the expenditures in production of food, goods and services per-capita.

  Reduction of population faster than assumed in any of these pre-COVID models, and a fuel-starvation of western European economies, seem to have begun. There is still time for negotiation, but that time is slipping away.

   North American economy is even more carbon intensive, but North America is militarily powerful, harder to control, and has substantial oil, gas and coal. 
  The progressive economic destruction of North America has been foreseen by many. North American industry has long languished for lack of investment, which went to China instead. There are groups within North America which would like to restore North American industry.
  It is apparent that North America will have a lower fossil-energy budget going forward, but how low remains to be seen. A real oil shortage may occur in 2023, as has been predicted for over a year.

  One of the principal assumptions of the World-3 model has been that the availability of things like fuel, water and industrial capacity, matters more than economic models. It is as if economic models provide stories about "reality" which we tell each other, but they are far less deterministic than we imagine. 
  I do not imagine that liquid-fuels which can be accessed by an economy will not be accessed. They may run a train or truck, or they may become plastic packaging or devices. Coal will be used to make concrete, steel and electricity.

  Though it is more important for effective group function to have social cohesion than truth, it is possible to have both "the truth" and social cohesion. 
It is possible to have leaders who are truthful, good leaders, and also spiritual-seekers, but these "philosopher-kings" are exceedingly rare. 
Maybe "Mom" has some in mind. One can hope.
Meanwhile, we have lots of basic prepping for our food, water, fuel and family-group needs.

Philosopher Peasant (pictured with one of the 4 growing stalks of bananas)