Thursday, August 4, 2022

Explaining Involuntary Reductions


Dubious,

  What if global politics are fitting a bunch of crises to what is happening anyway,to create a narrative to "explain" it to us, when it is all happening for reasons beyond the control of the politicians and their "backers"? Just askin'. I know it's kind of far-fetched, but I've beenmulling it over, and i can even patch something like this together, myself. 

  Here, hold my beer; watch this!

  I'll start with the projections of the oft-maligned 1973 book The Limits To Growth, which used the big computer at MIT, a new scientific discipline of Systems Analysis, and analyzed the growth of human population, industry, and natural resource usage over the 20th century, correlated with estimated reserves of resources, water and forests, and the capacity for waste absorption of the earth's oceans, air and soils.  https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/02/03/where-energy-modeling-goes-wrong/
A couple of the predictions, if humanity did not change course intentionally (which humanity did not do) were that human population would peak around 2050, but that human industrial production would peak between 2010 and 2020. I think that industrial peak happened in the second half of 2018, myself, along with CO2 output, which closely correlates.

  By August 2019, the biggest banks and financial institutions in the world, like Black Rock and Deutsche Bank, could not trust eaach other on overnight loans, backed by US Treasuries, so the Repo-Crisis happened in September. The Fed. took over the repo-window, and started creating $US trillions, which needed some cover. The monetary infusion needed to be really, really big, bigger than 2009, and it needed to go directly to the biggest financial institutions on the planet, and  it needed cover, and then it needed hiding.

  Luckily, COVID came along right after that, though there is evidence that it had already leaked from a lab in Ft. Detrick Md. or Wuhan before that.
In january 2020, China had a crisis with the pandemic, and there was evidence that it had already spread far and wide. Limited test availability and weird testing protocols let the tale of the spread  be managed somewhat, but FEAR got dialed up by the media.

  Lockdowns got announced in March 2020, and crashed the real economy, and the stock market, allowing any sum of money to be given to any bank, while suppressing the real economy, so it did not "overheat". They didn't stop the virus, but they were very effective at shutting down restaurants, bars and barbershops, while shunting their business to Amazon, which did great. Lockdowns might actually kill people. https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/15/9295
The Chinese have discovered lately that lockdowns for COVID are an effective treatment against runs on insolvent banks, but they don't address the underlying structural failures. Sigh...

  COVID provided a pretty good cover for governments and banks around the world to do whatever they needed to, to keep control of the societal narrative, but after the 'vaccines" came out that lost traction. Early treatment had been suppressed, and all of the eggs placed in the vaccine-salvation basket, and all concerns about the coronavirus vaccines had been censored. those concerns were that no effective vaccine had ever been made against a coronavirus, nor did humans naturally mount a reliable long-lasting immunity to coronaviruses and their mutant offspring. All animal models of vaccination in coronavirus research had seen greater deaths among the vaccinated animals, mostly when they got exposed to the actual virus later. the vaccines worked backwards, causing more deaths, just like what seems to now be happening with humans. one mechanism is vaccine-antibody-enhancement-of-viral-pathogenicity. "The vaccines help the virus". We have seen public health England data for over a year, suggesting higher COVID infections and deaths in the vaccinated after 6 months, and increases in hospitalizations and deaths followed with a little lag. That's everywhere from israel to New England. Australia is getting hit hard by that lately. Here is a recent article looking at one specific way the vaccines help the virus.  https://palexander.substack.com/p/why-is-covid-virus-now-so-infectious  

  Steve Kirsch has found survey data that "Vaccines" for COVID kill more than COVID does. Google disallowed his 2 questions to run a Google survey. Basically, "Did anybody in  your household die from COVID?" and "Did anyone in your household die from COVID vaccination?".
"Nextdoor" didn't shut him down for a whole 24 hrs, by which time he had 2% COVID deaths, 3% vaccine-deaths and 3% vaccine serious adverse events per household. https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/google-does-not-want-anyone-to-find

 About 22% of people (such as myself, an early-treatment MD, fired for vaccine refusal) have never accepted the official COVID narrative. 
Less than half of "fully vaccinated" Americans are getting a booster. They changed their minds. The societal control narrative needed a diaper-change.

  WAR! That's a tried and true control-narrative. we got Ukraine War. Biden came back smiling from his meeting with Putin, shortly before war broke out. Biden kept guaranttying that Russia was going to attack /ukraine in February. He did know the set-up, that Ukrainian troops were massed to finish the genocide in the Donbas in late February if Russia did not intervene. The US had trained and supplied Ukrainian troops since the US-sponsored 2014 coup d'etat in Ukraine put in the new fascist government in Kiev, which failed to honor the 2015 Minsk Accords, to give Russian-speaking Donbas autonomy and to stop shelling them.

  You see how that war has gone for the west. It was supposed to be self-supporting in a way, by collapsing the Russian economy and their will to fight, but like the vaccine-salvation, this war-plan is working-backwards. Americans are not afraid of it, and don't much support it any more, since "our side"-is-losing. Ukraine has dropped out of the headlines. Russian prestige on the global stage has gone from 3-stars to 5-stars, while US prestige is at 2-stars. Russia is exporting less oil and gas, but getting more money. The Russian Ruble is the strongest it has been in years. Russian weapons are in high demand. Russian diplomacy is trusted...

  As the global energy-based economy grinds ever-downward from its peak in 2018-2019, neither COVID, nor the Ukraine war will suffice as a control narrative for American power elites. It's an acute disaster in Europe.https://www.rt.com/business/560064-eu-gas-shortage-winter/   
Europe really needs the Russian gas spigots turned back on fully by fall equinox, and even that will still be a deadly winter for Europeans. Germany is importing more than it exports. The jig is about up for the Brussels EU. Orban of Hungary is calling it like he sees it and cannot be shut up, short of assassination.  https://www.rt.com/news/560068-orban-eu-hungary-independent/   “Brussels is not our boss We are an independent, sovereign Hungarian nation. We make decisions together. If they’re not good for us, we’ll tell them. If they are not good and we can prevent them, the common decision will not be made.”

  Making Europe use less fossile fuel is part of the plan for the control narrative, but throwing outthe ruling elites is not part of the plan. The WAR needs to be against somebody else, and quickly, so europe can open Nordstream 1 & 2 up and get the gas we need to survive winter. Otherwise people are going to follow Orban-the-Deplorable. "War" with China might be good enough. Neither China nor the Us appears to really want a big war, like against Russia (US) or the US (China).
The border between China and Taiwan is about 100 miles of ocean, so no blitzkerig. there can be lots of testing of resolve and of defensive and offensive capabilities. there can be cyber-war, trade-war and limited-war. There are some small islands in the strait that can be limited battlefields. The US can pump weapons into Taiwan, or jump right in. The US Congress has legislationintroduced to make Taiwan a more-important ally. The US can put US navy ships in Taiwanese waters and ports 'by request', making Taiwan into somthing like Japan. How far along that timeline before China sends the bimbers? The tension could be unbearable.

  The Chinese navy is going to do live fire military drills less than 10 miles from the Taiwanese coast in the next few days, in 3 different places that close.

 Taiwan Policy Act of 2022. Senator Robert Menendez
  Our legislation would reinforce the safety of Taiwan by offering virtually $4.5 billion in safety help over the subsequent 4 years and recognizing Taiwan as a “major non-NATO ally” — a strong designation to facilitate nearer navy and safety ties. It would additionally increase Taiwan’s diplomatic area by its participation in worldwide organizations and in multilateral commerce agreements. The laws would additionally take concrete steps to counter China’s aggressive affect campaigns, impose crippling financial prices if Beijing takes hostile motion towards Taiwan (reminiscent of monetary, banking, visa and different sanctions) and reform American bureaucratic practices to bolster assist for Taiwan’s democratic authorities. In quick, this effort can be the most complete restructuring of U.S. coverage towards Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.


​  That act by Senator menendez does not take the step of recognizing Taiwanese nationality yet, but it could do so, Taiwanese statehood is the modern reality, but it does throw the gauntlet down for war with China right-away. The problem is that China might need a hot war before the us needs a hot war, and of course Taiwan never wants the hot war. The whole world needs Taiwanese chips. this is different from Ukrainian wheat and corn.​

  Still, this war scenario allows for any necessary reduction in global carbon-based economy to be created/explained by the war narrative. Famine control-narrative explanations remain in preliminary stages with arsons and explosions in American food processing plants, fertilizer-embargoes, and government green initiatives against farmers through much of the alnglophone world and Holland. https://thecountersignal.com/new-zealand-burp-tax-on-farmers-livestock/
War generally leads to famine, and with global supply chains as they are, we have already seen how easily that can be accomplished.  it is important to remember that rapidly reducing the resource-depleting and CO2 generating human population of this planet, in a manageable and generally-palatable way is an important task for our shadowy globalist owners. We are overheating the planet by burning THEIR jet fuel, after all.

  That brings us to the new, competitive-global-elite control-narrative, now championed by Russia, China, Shanghai Cooperation organization, and the growing BRICS+++. This control-narrative says that the current neoliberal-capitalist global elites and their $US based global value extraction system, spearheaded by World Bank and IMF loans for things that help imports and hurt locals is The Problem. That's still not discussing resource limits as a driver of current trends, but it allows a lot of room to improve the match of the control-narrative to "reality", so it should be less of a strain to the credulity of folks like us, and hungry folks and cold folks.
  This new narrative has a powerful feature to improve reality-matching, which is the massive repudiationof $US debts. That repudiation by debtor countries will massively decrease the magnitude of promises to be paid by future production, payment which can never be performed as real economy shrinks. The 'financial innovation" of recent decades makes it impossible to discover how much phanton-wealth there is, but that's one way the current system "creates prosperity".

  That implies "assigning losses" not just to starving Africans and indians, but to many of those wealthy people who now hold developing world debt, instead. That's going to please a lot more of the people of the world, and will not necessitate killing as many through starvation. It's going to be tough for the gated-community and jet-set, but I'm sure they will understand that its the wonders of capitalism going through more growth pains as it becomes more efficient. To further run with that ball, we see that African leaders are now calling for a new system whereby Africans get a leg-up by burning African oil, instead of sending it to "wealthy" countries. that's pretty bold, and it's not "green', but they are claiming that they are so much greener than westerners that westerners should rightly take big cuts so Africans can take some modest increases. Clever argument, eh?   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output

Greeenhouse Gas Guzzler

 

3 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis. A lot of what I read, like articles by Pepe Escobar seem to be focused almost exclusively on the acts of politicians and ignore the physical world that supports us all. In my view, politicians are impotent in an environment of declining energy. Their skillset is entirely based on an environment of excess free energy where they get to control how that excess energy is alloted.
    I used to do some kayak surfing and would like to introduce a metaphor of how I see our current situation. When you are on the face of a wave, your job is to read the wave and put yourself in a position where the wave will not crash on you. Read the wave and let it move you. You cannot control the wave as the globalists are hoping to do. Emergent systems like our current civilizations were built on ever inreasing inputs of energy. Emergent systems invariably collapse when energy is withdrawn from the system and have to go through a chaotic phase before they can reorganize into a stable low energy cofiguration. Gail at ourfiniteworld.com does a good job explaining all.
    I doubt the Davos gang has what it takes to control the crashing wave. I choose to surf it.

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  2. https://youtu.be/MfuVuSoHdXI
    It's a video of Warren Williamson playing in deception pass, Wa. Warren lives right near the pass and learned to negotiate the chaos, my metaphor for a shrinking economy.

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    1. Poor dude gets clobbered and dunked a few times, but comes back fighting. The wave-riding at the end, where he catches at least 2 waves and they redo it in slo-mo is very impressive.
      I completely endorse the systems-anaysis, which you also use. I include "Gail The Actuary" (The Oil drum tag ehs had back in the day). Nicole Foss and Surplus energy economics are also on that track.

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