Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Implications Of Energy Cannibalism

 Cooking With Gas,

  Periodically I revisit the 1972 "The Limits To Growth" systems-analysis work, not an economic analysis, but an analysis of the human global industrial economic system within the finite context of our planet. I learned about this almost exactly 50 years ago in 10th grade Sociology class. The Arab Oil Embargo to the US was underway from the 1973 Yom Kippur war, greatly affecting the US. I was in Japan, but everybody was fully aware that there was not enough oil, that it was finite, and that industrial economy depended upon it.
The Honest Sorcerer looks at a 2023 update of that analysis, through the World-3 model, and includes the familiar B.A.U. (business as usual) graph of global inputs to and outputs from human industrial economy. 
  I will point out that the global industrial output seems to have peaked in late 2018 or early 2019, both from the graph, and other analysis I have seen. This was likely a contributor to the September 2019 "Repo-Crisis", and the "necessary" going-direct cash infusion to TBTF financial institutions like BlackRock (which managed it) during COVID lockdowns.
  The power/financial elites need to maintain their own control of the system as a first priority. We need the system, declining in total energy inputs, to continue to feed us, provide heat, fresh water, cooking fuel electricity and complex communications systems to coordinate all of that. 2024 may bring the return of the GFC, which was never repaired in 2008. The elites "need" to cull a lot of the human population without incapacitating industrial economy. War breaks too much, which can't be rebuilt this time, so wars should only be carried out on the territory of competitors. Disease and famine, as well as cutting off communications, electricity, water and fuel to one area at a time are all in use already.   Financially, the comfortable 10% will take a massive hit with the resumption of the financial crisis. We have seen how nobody "owns" their stocks and bonds, and that it is a Ponzi scheme, with derivative-casino gamblers having super-seniority claims upon collateral-assets ("your" wealth). Get out of debt in order to "own" anything.
​  2025: A Civilizational Tipping Point
​  There is a growing body of evidence that the 2024–2030 period will present us with a critical juncture, upending a centuries long era of economic growth. No, it will have nothing to do with climate change or novel viruses: those two will come somewhat later. Missing entirely from mainstream discourse there is a greatly overlooked side of our predicament, which will set a nice little ‘game of musical chairs’ in motion most probably around 2025.
​  We live in a supermassive complex system, often referred to as modernity, industrial civilization, or the world economy. This enormous organism has a life of its own, with its own inputs (resources) and outputs (pollution), as well as its own lifecycle. It is something best understood through the lens of systems dynamics, a modelling method developed in the late 1960’s. The first results were published in 1972, in a study titled Limits to Growth...
​..The latest iteration of these follow up studies was titled Recalibration23, published in November 2023.

 ..Just concentrate on the continuous lines: as resources (pink) go down and deplete, both industrial output (red) and food production (green) goes through a tipping point and starts to decline. As a result world population (orange) peaks and dwindles. Pollution (blue) will keep rising though as people go back to less clean​ technologies and burn just about everything they can put their hands on to stay warm in the winter...
​,,The authors of the study conclude:
​  Like the [Business As Usual] scenario of the [Limits to Growth] publication, the new scenario Recalibration23 reflects the overshoot and collapse mode due to resource scarcity. […] Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics. This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak.​..
..Oil is still the master resource, making all other energy and mineral resources available. Mining, agriculture, construction, long distance transport, plastics, all hopelessly depend on petroleum. Hydro, nuclear and “renewables” are also made possible by using diesel and gasoline burning vehicles to bring people, raw materials and equipment on site. Should the availability of oil decline, it would eventually bring all other resources and energy production down with it...
​..The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ flagship magazine has published an article in 2023 saying just that:
​  “Energy necessary for the production of oil liquids is growing at an exponential rate, representing 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids today and projected to reach a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output by 2050 (Delannoy et al. 2021).
​  When the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d [1]. In the foreseeable future, the energy needed to produce oil liquids could approach unsustainable levels, a phenomenon called “energy cannibalism.”
​  The concept of energy cannibalism is becoming increasingly relevant, as mounting energy use in oil production means the very resources needed for the transition to renewable energy may be constrained, particularly when viewed from a net-energy perspective and in terms of economic growth.”​...
..And it’s not only about net energy, but the overall availability of oil (3). For most of the second half of the 20th century, oil companies were finding more crude than global consumption, around five times the demand volumes. This ratio of discovered resources versus demand has dropped in recent decades, and is now at around 25%. (This means, that we burn four times as much oil every year than what we find.)​...
..Knowing how petroleum output affects everything we do, the significance of passing this civilizational tipping point cannot be overemphasized. Again, this has very little to do with subsidies or finance: we are about to pass a point of diminishing returns from an energetic and geological perspective...
​..We will be in completely uncharted territory. Once again to cite the authors of the Recalibrate23 study:
  "However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on."
​  Talking about the “rearrangement of complex socio-economic relationships…” How about the end of the unipolar world, and the rise of new trading blocks (BRICS+)? Perhaps a global conflict over who gets to burn the last barrels of oil available for export? Or a major financial meltdown upending the current financial system?​ ...
..After a few years perhaps a decade into this crisis-mode, it will no longer be possible to uphold current institutions and large political structures. The reasons, as always: the gap between interests too wide, the costs of maintaining central control too high...
..Every civilization — ours included — grew by living up its one time inheritance, be it fertile topsoil or petroleum, overshooting both the natural carrying capacity of its environment and the non-renewable resource base it relied on. Then, as resources got depleted below a critical level, they all went through their respective phases of collapse.

Utility Bill Debt For Americans Hits Record As Heating Homes Now Seen As Luxury​  (It's a really-good luxury. Might die without it.)

  ​Surplus Energy Economics looks at one aspect of the unfinished global financial crisis, which is the dependence upon $US for global trade and investment flows. The US extracts value from the rest of the world through this neocolonial financial system. This is being bypassed, and will be bypassed more and more as the rest of the world acts to reduce their own losses to the trade and investment system. A BRICS-Currency is not required. This already happened with Russian oil and gas. It is progressing.
​  How will “exorbitant privilege” end?​  THE WHY AND HOW OF DE-DOLLARIZATION
  Geopolitics aside, the critical issue is the flip-side of “exorbitant privilege”. This is the cost imposed, through the market dollar under-valuation of their output, on other countries in general, and EM economies in particular.  
​  As we shall see, it can be calculated that the rest of the world gets only $0.54 for each dollar-equivalent of economic value that their countries produce. Put the other way around, we can calculate that the market dollar is over-valued by about 85% in relation to underlying value in the world outside the United States.
​  What we should expect to see is a rolling shift towards bilateral and multilateral trade and investment in currencies other than the dollar. Beginning with oil, this can be expected to move on to natural gas, chemicals, minerals and agricultural commodities.

  ​"Israel" has been a colonial outpost of the western financial order put in place at the end of WW-2, keeping oil-producing countries in disarray, subject to price and production controls imposed by the US and allied interests. There is now a strong desire in the neo-colonialized world to break this point of leverage by ending the apartheid state arrangement of "Zionism". This is complicated by the political and financial power, especially spy-power, wielded by Israel in the western system, and by Israel's nuclear weapons policy, the Samson Option, to nuke all regional and global centers of power if their regime is about to be defeated.
​  Russia's Push for Palestinian State Can Help Stop Endless 'Loop' of Regional Violence
​  A lasting resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli crisis is the keystone to regional stability, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.
“The main focus of efforts should be the creation of a Palestinian state in full compliance with the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council. The state described in these decisions would be competent and would exist in security and good neighborliness side by side with Israel and other countries in the region...  I hope that the Israeli leadership will eventually come to this conclusion…Without the establishment of a Palestinian state, there can be not reliable security for Israel."​...
​..Washington’s intransigence and blind support for Tel Aviv is another problem, Al Ibrahim said, pointing out that unlike in the case of Iran-Saudi normalization, where China was able to swoop in last year and mediate a surprise normalization deal, in the case of Palestine-Israel normalization a third country coming in and finding a resolution seems impossible. This will be the case so long as the US decides that it “cannot let their favorite ally, Israel, go,” even if it means jeopardizing their position and moral standing vis-à-vis the rest of the world.​..
..“So if there is anybody that you can talk to on the street over here in Riyadh and you tell them, do you trust the United States’ diplomatic efforts in solving this issue, they would definitely say, ‘we don't’. So it's time for somebody to fill this vacuum, if the United States and Britain would let them in and solve this file. And it needs to start with the mindset of the Israelis,” Al Ibrahim summed up.

​  Lavrov calls for halt to Israeli violence in West Bank
​  It is necessary to halt Israel’s violence in the West Bank immediately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at an open debate of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the Middle East.
​  "It is necessary to halt immediately the violence that is coming en masse, from the side of the Israeli army and settlers in the West Bank," he said.
​  Focusing on "such disgusting ideas as the forced displacement of all Palestinians from their permanent places of residence" is particularly worrisome, the minister said, adding that "such a scenario is unacceptable."

​  Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with CBS, said that the US must stop its hostilities and stop vetoing UN ceasefire resolutions in order resolve the crisis in the Middle East

Lebanon wants Russia involved in forging Middle East peace
Beirut’s foreign minister has said he is confident Moscow will work towards easing tensions in the region

Israeli Military Now Says It's "Impossible" To Destroy Vast Hamas Tunnel Network​   Extent now assessed to be close to 450 miles of tunnels...

Israel to fight until total victory, Netanyahu says after one-day IDF death toll hits 21

​  About 570,000 people in the Gaza Strip face dire hunger, and the work of humanitarian organizations is difficult due to access and communication problems, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said on Tuesday.

Iraqi Militia Coalition Targets Israeli Port, US Troops at Syrian Gas Field

​  Money-laundering between  politicians, global financial institutions (BlackRock) and the military industrial complex. 
​  US sees Ukraine as a ‘business project’ – Lavrov
​  Recent statements from the US suggest it regards Ukraine as nothing but a “lucrative business project," one that it is profiting from, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the UN Security Council on Monday.
​  The minister was referring to earlier statements made by US State Secretary Antony Blinken. Last month, the top US diplomat claimed that 90% of the money allocated for Ukrainian aid ends up getting funneled back to the US “to the benefit of American business, local communities, and strengthening the US defense industrial base.”

​  AfD Leader Calls for German ‘Dexit’ Vote to Break From EU
​  Britain was “dead right” to leave the European Union and Germany should consider its own “Dexit,” the leader of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) Alice Weidel said in an article published in US media on Monday.
​  “If reform isn’t possible, if we fail to rebuild sovereignty of the EU member states, we should let the people decide, just as Britain did,” she said, adding that “we could have a referendum on ‘Dexit’ - a German exit from the EU.”
A recent poll found that only 45% of AfD members would currently vote to leave the EU and only 10% of the general population said they would.

Attempts to prohibit the AfD, a growing thorn in the government’s side, are unlikely to work – and if they do, it’ll cause more harm than good

​  Trudeau's Orwellian Attack On Canadian Truckers Declared Unconstitutional
​  Canada's Federal Court ruled on Tuesday that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's use of the Emergencies Act in 2022 to punish protesting truckers was both unreasonable and unconstitutional.
​  "I have concluded that the decision to issue the Proclamation does not bear the hallmarks of reasonableness — justification, transparency and intelligibility — and was not justified in relation to the relevant factual and legal constraints that were required to be taken into consideration," wrote Justice Richard G. Mosley in his ruling...
​  According to Mosley, Trudeau's regulations had violated Charter rights - particularly against freedom of thought, opinion and expression. The Emergencies Act order was also found to infringe on the right to security against unreasonable search and seizure.

​  Queen Maxima of the Netherlands took to the Davos stage to declare that digital IDs are necessary for nearly every aspect of social engagement. The Dutch queen told the World Economic Forum (WEF) that they can no longer trust the people, and digital IDs will provide governments with a clear way to track our behavior.
​  Vaccine passports are necessary to tell “who actually got a vaccination or not,” highlighting how those at the top do not trust the public. They want complete unilateral control. In fact, she believes that children should not be allowed to enroll in school unless they have a digital ID that includes their vaccination passport. “It [digital ID] is also good for school enrollment; it is also good for health – who actually got a vaccination or not; it’s very good actually to get your subsidies from the government,” she said to a room of nodding heads.

Autopsies confirm Covid-19 “Vaccines” cause Myocaditis and Death​ , New study from doctors: Peter McCullough, Roger Hodkinson, William Makis, and Nicolas Hulscher.

​  Steve Kirsch , The New Zealand data leaked by whistleblower Barry Young is unassailable proof the COVID vaccines increase your risk of death
​  Barry Young is a hero.​ Not only did he publicly expose the data that definitively shows the COVID vaccines are killing people, but he also gets to compel these epidemiologists to finally explain how I got it wrong...
​..It’s a shame that Barry had to be arrested for us to get answers, but it’s clear that a court hearing is simply the only way to compel qualified scientists to answer questions nowadays.

​  From Jane Orient MD at AAPS: COVID-19: What Was the Effect on Disability?
​  As the graph shows, the proportion of Americans over age 16 with a disability has increased sharply since 2021: from about 115 in 100,000 (projected, shown by blue line) to nearly 125 in 100,000 (black line). During the height of COVID, the proportion was lower.

​  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate is up 33% since the spring of 2021...
..The increase happens to coincide with COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, in conjunction with the similar magnitude of the rate of serious adverse events (SAEs) from the clinical trials.

​  Sperm Is Replaced Completely By Spike Protein In “Vaccinated”​ (​Probably not completely, not in all men, right?​ This likely just represents the worst-case.)
Dr. Arne Burkhardt shows a medical slideshow of two individuals that confirmed spike proteins replacing sperm entirely or almost entirely in the testes.

​Normally-Abled (featuring ripening and unripe tomatoes salvaged before the freeze)

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