Macro Viewers,
Surplus Energy Economics , How to be happy, wealthy, and bankrupt
FINANCIALIZATION, ANOMALY AND RISK IN AN INFLECTING ECONOMYIt’s been said that, when events turn fast, furious and frightening, and civilians are panicking, the professionals get ever cooler and more calmly calculating.
If this is so, we’ll need to be very professional indeed in 2024.
One of our most serious challenges is that economic and financial forces are pulling in opposite directions. Transactional activity, and the aggregates of assets and liabilities, are continuing to expand, even as the underlying material economy is inflecting from growth into contraction.
Our interest, in this first article of 2024, is in the process of financialization which is driving this divergence. We need to know why parallel forces are driving us to a state of simultaneous affluence and destitution, and why trends increasingly obvious to investors in energy are still invisible to those investing in almost everything else.
Just one consequence of this disconnect is the ludicrous proposition that fossil fuel assets – without which we cannot possibly transition to renewables – are somehow “stranded” and valueless, when the reality is the polar opposite of this exercise in absurdity.
Where wealth is concerned, capital theory tells us that, as the authorities continue to prop up the flow side of the economy by wrecking the stock side of the equation, the resort to ever-looser monetary policies should result in continuing rises in asset prices.
At the same time, though, a point will soon be reached at which the sheer magnitude of our mountainous debt and quasi-debt liabilities induces confidence-snapping vertigo.
Soaring asset prices are, logically, going to make us rich, then, just as escalating liabilities are going to land us in the poor-house. Since logic baulks at the concept of affluent bankruptcy, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that we’re going to end up owning vast amounts of worthless money...
-The detailed assessments-
..Where now?
Looking at our predicament, whether as description or as charts, a number of critical points become apparent.
First, the same financialization process which is creating a simulacrum of “growth” is driving debt and broader liabilities to a point at which vertigo sets in. A clear implication is that the “everything bubble” in asset prices must explode, and that decision-makers must adopt ever looser fiscal and monetary policies in an effort to keep the show on the road.
Analysis of the material economy, meanwhile, reveals a background process in which certain sectors – led by discretionaries, and by those over-invested in the supposedly-perpetual miracle of financialization – either contract or disappear.
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether the economy contracts gradually, or a financial collapse burns out the wiring linking the components of the material economy.
All we can really do is work out the pattern of stresses in the system, thereby trying to push the odds in directions favourable for ourselves.
It’s an old adage that ‘the most dangerous part of a car is the nut holding the steering wheel’.
Where decision-making is concerned, we can only hope that the arrival of materiality brings wisdom where the progression of financialization has brought folly.
Looking at our predicament, whether as description or as charts, a number of critical points become apparent.
First, the same financialization process which is creating a simulacrum of “growth” is driving debt and broader liabilities to a point at which vertigo sets in. A clear implication is that the “everything bubble” in asset prices must explode, and that decision-makers must adopt ever looser fiscal and monetary policies in an effort to keep the show on the road.
Analysis of the material economy, meanwhile, reveals a background process in which certain sectors – led by discretionaries, and by those over-invested in the supposedly-perpetual miracle of financialization – either contract or disappear.
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether the economy contracts gradually, or a financial collapse burns out the wiring linking the components of the material economy.
All we can really do is work out the pattern of stresses in the system, thereby trying to push the odds in directions favourable for ourselves.
It’s an old adage that ‘the most dangerous part of a car is the nut holding the steering wheel’.
Where decision-making is concerned, we can only hope that the arrival of materiality brings wisdom where the progression of financialization has brought folly.
Russia has the BRICS Presidency this year, and Vladimir Putin has just declared his intention to introduce a BRICS currency this year. This is time-sensitive, not casual.
In an interview with TV BRICS, Sergey Glazyev says that the currency itself is almost complete, but it still needs support from all leaders of the economic alliance.According to Glazyev, some member nations have already thrown their weight behind the currency.
“We need only political will because technically this currency is almost ready. The software and mathematical tools have been created.
In order to launch this currency, we need the political consent of the BRICS countries, three of which have already expressed their support for the idea of introducing a new currency through their heads of state. We are waiting for the reaction of China and India.”
The former minister also says that Russia will be in a position next year to convince other BRICS nations to green-light the currency.
“And in order to launch such a currency, Russia, as the presiding country next year, could convene an international conference to sign an agreement on the introduction of such a new international settlement currency.”
As a whole, BRICS nations have expressed varying levels of support for a common currency, with leaders in Russia and Brazil firmly behind the idea. South Africa is the most conservative, expressing the need for a cautious approach while emphasizing the importance of the US dollar.
According to Glazyev, the new currency will be backed by two baskets which would make it less susceptible to debasement and more attractive than the US dollar.
“It is based not only on a basket of national currencies of the member countries, but also on a basket of exchange commodities. The model shows that this currency will be very stable and much more attractive than the dollar, pound and euro.”
“We need only political will because technically this currency is almost ready. The software and mathematical tools have been created.
In order to launch this currency, we need the political consent of the BRICS countries, three of which have already expressed their support for the idea of introducing a new currency through their heads of state. We are waiting for the reaction of China and India.”
The former minister also says that Russia will be in a position next year to convince other BRICS nations to green-light the currency.
“And in order to launch such a currency, Russia, as the presiding country next year, could convene an international conference to sign an agreement on the introduction of such a new international settlement currency.”
As a whole, BRICS nations have expressed varying levels of support for a common currency, with leaders in Russia and Brazil firmly behind the idea. South Africa is the most conservative, expressing the need for a cautious approach while emphasizing the importance of the US dollar.
According to Glazyev, the new currency will be backed by two baskets which would make it less susceptible to debasement and more attractive than the US dollar.
“It is based not only on a basket of national currencies of the member countries, but also on a basket of exchange commodities. The model shows that this currency will be very stable and much more attractive than the dollar, pound and euro.”
Josh Mittledorf explores the controversy in Physics regarding determinism, and whether a "non-deterministic" universe has openings for the direct "Psi" influence of mind (whatever "mind" may be). Such influences have been demonstrated in various experiments, and many of us have personally experienced that effect. Howzat work?
The Zeroth Law of Science , Is the Universe governed by fixed laws? Thanks Red, You have one life. Do you really want to spend it looking at your phone?
It was 3.30 in the morning when I realized I needed to break up with my phone. I was holding my baby in my arms as I scrolled through eBay, feeling a bit delusional with fatigue, when I had a brief out-of-body experience in which I saw the scene as if I were an outsider.There was my baby, gazing up at me. And there was me, looking down at my phone.
I was horrified. This was not the impression I wanted my child to have of a human relationship, and it also wasn’t how I wanted to be living my own life. I decided in that moment that I needed to “break up” with my phone and create a new relationship with better boundaries.
https://www.theguardian.com/
Israeli spokesperson says the assassination of Hamas leader Saleh Al-Aruri was "not an attack on the Lebanese state" while Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah pledge resistance will continue.
22,313+ killed* and at least 57,296 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
321 Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,147.
506 Israeli soldiers killed since October 7, and at least 2,193 injured.
Within hours after the Nasrallah speech, Israel has conducted another major airstrike on Lebanon, this time against a residential building which housed Hezbollah members.
"Two security sources told the Reuters news agency that four Hezbollah members were killed in the attack on what had been described as a residential building," Al Jazeera reports.
"Two security sources told the Reuters news agency that four Hezbollah members were killed in the attack on what had been described as a residential building," Al Jazeera reports.
Hasan Illaik , Israel’s Gaza withdrawal, a prelude to full-out war [The Lebanese government is "captured" by the US/Israel, but Hezbollah can missile-blockade Israel.]
Don't be lulled by the Israeli troop withdrawal from northern Gaza. Tel Aviv has no intention of ending this war, and is escalating on all its other fronts, including with Lebanon.This withdrawal did not mean the end of the war on Gaza, and it certainly did not suggest calm on the Lebanese-Israeli front. On the contrary, reducing the pace of the war in the Gaza Strip increases the possibilities of an Israeli war on Lebanon...
..The third stage is coming
The first stage of Tel Aviv’s war was the mass destruction and occupation of northern Gaza; the second stage is the occupation of key points in the south of the Gaza Strip, where Palestinian civilians have flocked for safety. The current troop withdrawal from the territory’s north means that the Israelis are cementing their southern plans and preparing to move on to phase three: the long, low-intensity war.
As it enters the third stage, the occupation army intends to maintain a geographical buffer surrounding the northern Gaza Strip. It also plans to continue occupying the Gaza Valley area (central Gaza), while completing its operations in Khan Yunis in the south.
The fate of the Philadelphia axis – or Salah ad-Din Axis – a strip of land on the border between Gaza and Egypt which Israel wants to control, will be left to deliberations between Tel Aviv and Cairo. This is to ensure that incidents do not occur that lead to tension between the two parties, as well as to guarantee that refugees do not flow from the south of the Gaza Strip towards Sinai.
Israel’s ground withdrawal from northern Gaza is taking place primarily because the occupation army’s target bank has been depleted. All targets prior to the start of the war have been destroyed, and all new operational targets have been bombed. The first stage of Tel Aviv’s war was the mass destruction and occupation of northern Gaza; the second stage is the occupation of key points in the south of the Gaza Strip, where Palestinian civilians have flocked for safety. The current troop withdrawal from the territory’s north means that the Israelis are cementing their southern plans and preparing to move on to phase three: the long, low-intensity war.
As it enters the third stage, the occupation army intends to maintain a geographical buffer surrounding the northern Gaza Strip. It also plans to continue occupying the Gaza Valley area (central Gaza), while completing its operations in Khan Yunis in the south.
The fate of the Philadelphia axis – or Salah ad-Din Axis – a strip of land on the border between Gaza and Egypt which Israel wants to control, will be left to deliberations between Tel Aviv and Cairo. This is to ensure that incidents do not occur that lead to tension between the two parties, as well as to guarantee that refugees do not flow from the south of the Gaza Strip towards Sinai.
Despite this, the Palestinian resistance continues to carry out operations against Israeli forces. These organizations remain relatively unscathed in the entire area of the northern Gaza Strip, which will increase the ability of the resistance to inflict losses on occupation ranks, now and in the future...
..These measures are being taken because Israel has patently failed to achieve the two main goals of its war, namely, eliminating the Hamas-led resistance in Gaza, and liberating the Israeli prisoners captured by the resistance on 7 October.
There remains a basic motive that must be noted: The Israeli army is currently putting all its efforts into implementing a US decision to push the war from its first and second phases into the third phase before the end of January 2024. This requires the war to be managed at a slower boil, drawing less attention to Israeli carnage and the mass suffering of Palestinians.
After three months of brutalities, Washington has assessed the Israeli army as unable to eliminate the resistance or the possibilities of regional escalation, and has noted the significant harm caused to the US administration of Joe Biden as he enters the presidential primary season...
..As the Israeli occupation army moves to focus its operations on the southern Gaza Strip, the intensity of military operations along the Lebanese border between Hezbollah and the Israeli army has also been ratcheted up. There remains a basic motive that must be noted: The Israeli army is currently putting all its efforts into implementing a US decision to push the war from its first and second phases into the third phase before the end of January 2024. This requires the war to be managed at a slower boil, drawing less attention to Israeli carnage and the mass suffering of Palestinians.
After three months of brutalities, Washington has assessed the Israeli army as unable to eliminate the resistance or the possibilities of regional escalation, and has noted the significant harm caused to the US administration of Joe Biden as he enters the presidential primary season...
Hezbollah increased its targeting of occupation soldiers, both in their visible locations and inside the settlements of northern Palestine...
..By increasing its strikes, Israel’s leadership seeks to inflict the greatest possible number of losses among the ranks of the resistance fighters, as well as to spread panic among southern Lebanese residents – displacing more of them, and destroying the largest possible number of homes. This places a burden on both Hezbollah and the Lebanese state in the reconstruction process after the end of hostilities.
But there is a longer-term goal to this Israeli military performance. The government in Tel Aviv, according to its official statements, wants Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of the Litani, to ensure the security of Israeli settlers in northern Palestine who abandoned their homes, either voluntarily or under evacuation orders from their army. By some estimates, the number of Israelis fleeing their settlements in occupied north Palestine has reached more than 230,000 people...
..Israel is therefore hoping that Hezbollah will yield to pressure and meet its demands regarding the withdrawal of its fighters from the border area with occupied Palestine. But there is a longer-term goal to this Israeli military performance. The government in Tel Aviv, according to its official statements, wants Hezbollah to withdraw from the south of the Litani, to ensure the security of Israeli settlers in northern Palestine who abandoned their homes, either voluntarily or under evacuation orders from their army. By some estimates, the number of Israelis fleeing their settlements in occupied north Palestine has reached more than 230,000 people...
The Israeli assessment of Lebanese affairs preceded its assassination of Al-Arouri in Beirut on 2 January. But in the same way that Israel military commanders and politicians have under-estimated and dismissed armed Palestinian resistance initiatives within occupied lands prior to 7 October, they continue to cling to a dated Israeli calculus that Hezbollah will never fully retaliate, or that it will only do so in a way that stops short of war...
..But while Hezbollah takes into account the complex political and economic Lebanese reality, it is not prepared to make concessions. Sources in the resistance axis say that Israel, as Hezbollah sees it, is not in a position to go to war with Lebanon when it cannot even compensate or digest the massive strategic losses it has incurred from Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Despite its desire to not expand the war, Hezbollah has already begun to prepare for it...
..The bottom line is that Tel Aviv’s assessment of a war with Lebanon is based on its reading that Hezbollah wishes to prevent a major confrontation at any cost. Not only is this calculus wrong, but it has also muddled Israeli minds to the point where this may itself lead to the outbreak of a destructive war between the two sides. Despite its desire to not expand the war, Hezbollah has already begun to prepare for it...
President Ebrahim Raisi’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, Mohammad Jamshidi, charged on social media platform X that “the responsibility for this crime lies with the US and Zionist (Israeli) regimes, and terrorism is just a tool.”
The United States rejected any suggestion that it or its ally Israel were behind the bombings, while Israel declined to comment.
“The United States was not involved in any way, and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
“We have no reason to believe that Israel was involved in this explosion,” he added, expressing sympathies to the victims of the “horrific” explosions and their families.
The United States rejected any suggestion that it or its ally Israel were behind the bombings, while Israel declined to comment.
“The United States was not involved in any way, and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
“We have no reason to believe that Israel was involved in this explosion,” he added, expressing sympathies to the victims of the “horrific” explosions and their families.
Ankara says Israel's crimes against humanity in Gaza should not go unpunished in another deterioration in ties between the two states
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller denounced the allegations at a press briefing later on Wednesday, saying there was no indication that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were committing genocide against the Palestinians.
“Genocide is of course a heinous atrocity, one of the most heinous atrocities that any individual can commit,” Miller said. “Those are allegations that should not be made lightly, and as it pertains to the United States, we are not seeing any acts that constitute genocide.”
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was more pointed in his response, saying the allegations against Israel were “meritless.” He added that the ICJ case filed by South Africa was “counterproductive and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever.”
“Genocide is of course a heinous atrocity, one of the most heinous atrocities that any individual can commit,” Miller said. “Those are allegations that should not be made lightly, and as it pertains to the United States, we are not seeing any acts that constitute genocide.”
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was more pointed in his response, saying the allegations against Israel were “meritless.” He added that the ICJ case filed by South Africa was “counterproductive and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever.”
One of the strategies involved sending Palestinians to an already war-torn Congo, while another involved sending Palestinians to the Gulf to work in slave-like conditions as construction workers.
In one particularly distressing recording, an Israeli soldier is seen admitting on camera his intention to harm an infant, ultimately resorting to killing a 12-year-old Palestinian girl when unable to locate one. In the footage circulating on social media, the soldier is heard telling a comrade: “We are looking for babies, but there are no babies left.”
A senior Education Department official resigned Wednesday, citing President Biden's response to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Biden administration appointee Tariq Habash is at least the second official, and the first who's known to be of Palestinian origin, to resign in protest over the U.S. response to the war.
Biden administration appointee Tariq Habash is at least the second official, and the first who's known to be of Palestinian origin, to resign in protest over the U.S. response to the war.
A New York Times story claiming a pattern of gender-based violence on October 7 hinged on the story of Gal Abdush. But the Abdush family says there is no proof she was raped, and that Times reporters interviewed them under false pretenses.
The senator is calling on Congress to reject a bill to send $10 billion in military funding to Israel.
Again, Hezbollah can do the same thing to the rest of Israeli shipping via the Mediterranean with its Iranian hypersonic missiles.
18 shipping companies re-routing around Africa amid YAF attacksThe US only has big drones, as expensive as fighter-planes, and is trying to recruit enough operators, not millions of FPV "suicide drones" and many thousands of operators.
Islamic Resistance of Iraq targets US al-Tanf base using a drone The bombing of the al-Tanf base comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility on Tuesday for targeting the al-Shaddadi base.
At the same time, health insurers begin declining coverage for injuries caused by "declared and undeclared wars..."
..I think this points to a few things, many of them are circular. For example, the "Blob" (I refuse to call it elite) has been planning and predictively programming civil war, insurrection, etc. for quite some time. So, part of them believe the programming, part of them is actively planning the armed conflicts, and this percolated to the large health insurers.
I also believe both federal government and some states such as CA (Newsom) are importing a mercenary army(ies) through the open southern border. There are some reports that they are being imported from far off places such as China - my guess is that recent Xi visit to CA might have had something to do with this. If it is true that China did not use mRNA injections, then maybe they were planning to use their excess male population as mercenary soldiers for sale.
There may be currently 1.5 M to 5M mercenary soldiers already inside the US based on estimates from commentators on the open border situation.
I also believe both federal government and some states such as CA (Newsom) are importing a mercenary army(ies) through the open southern border. There are some reports that they are being imported from far off places such as China - my guess is that recent Xi visit to CA might have had something to do with this. If it is true that China did not use mRNA injections, then maybe they were planning to use their excess male population as mercenary soldiers for sale.
There may be currently 1.5 M to 5M mercenary soldiers already inside the US based on estimates from commentators on the open border situation.
More from Sasha , Breaking Good News from Idaho: Boise County Voted to Protect Children from Genetic Shots
Dr. Marian Laderoute , Rapidly Elevating Elevated All Cause Mortality in the 0-44 Age Group in Canada in 2023
Can >50 ng/ml of blood Vitamin D3 and Ivermectin Solve This?
John Ward, The Slog , Old World Disorder and the New Normal Pfizer: a case history of prestidigitation... Why Pfizer really bought Seagen
[Make a bioweapon; SELL a "vaccine". Make turbo-cancer with your "vaccine"; SELL cancer-cures, the NEW self-licking-ice-cream-cone business model.]Off The Record (pictured unpacking and organizing record library for the new year)
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