Anticipating Consequences,
WARNING Dramatic Language: Hal Turner, The "Experts" are Telling me "2026 Everything Comes Apart; Nothing Can Stop it"
There's a $38 trillion time bomb ticking in the heart of the American financial system, and in 2026, it's going to detonate.....Right now, as you're reading this, over $500 billion in corporate debt is racing toward a refinancing deadline... Companies that borrowed money at 3% interest rates during the pandemic boom are about to face 9% rates when those loans come due. Banks that seemed rock solid are sitting on portfolios of commercial real estate loans that are worth half what they were two years ago...
..Every expert who saw 2008 coming, every economist who predicted the dot-com crash, every analyst who called the housing bubble, they're all saying the same thing: "2026 is the year everything breaks," but here's what makes this different from every other financial crisis in American history. This time, the government can't save us, the Federal Reserve's ammunition is spent, the Treasury's balance sheet is maxed out, and the very foundation of American economic power, the bond market that has backstopped every crisis since World War II, is about to crack under the weight of unsustainable debt...
..The first domino is already wobbling. It's called the refinancing wall, and it's coming at the American credit markets like a freight train. In 2020, 2021, and 2022, when interest rates were essentially zero, American companies went on the biggest borrowing binge in corporate history... Those bonds come due. Those loans need to be refinanced. And in 2026, over $500 billion worth of this debt hits maturity all at once.
Companies that borrowed at 5% are going to face refinancing costs of 8, 9, maybe 10%. That's not just an increase, that's a fundamental shift in the economics of American business. A company that could comfortably service debt at 5% might be bankrupt at 10%...
..The marginal companies, the ones that were already struggling, the ones that use cheap debt to paper over fundamental problems, they're going to fail. And when they fail, they're going to take their lenders with them... Companies that borrowed at 5% are going to face refinancing costs of 8, 9, maybe 10%. That's not just an increase, that's a fundamental shift in the economics of American business. A company that could comfortably service debt at 5% might be bankrupt at 10%...
..This is where the second domino comes into play. The lenders aren't traditional banks anymore... While everyone was focused on regulating banks after 2008, making them safer, forcing them to hold more capital, a shadow banking system emerged. Private credit funds, leveraged loan vehicles, collateralized loan obligations... They now control over $250 trillion in assets globally. That's half of all financial assets on the planet...
..Traditional banks are regulated. They have deposit insurance. They have access to Federal Reserve emergency lending. They have government backstops. Shadow banks have none of that. When a traditional bank faces a crisis, regulators can step in, inject capital, arrange mergers, prevent contagion.
When a shadow bank fails, it just fails. And it takes its investors with it...
..Now as 2026 approaches, these funds are facing their own crisis...Traditional banks are regulated. They have deposit insurance. They have access to Federal Reserve emergency lending. They have government backstops. Shadow banks have none of that. When a traditional bank faces a crisis, regulators can step in, inject capital, arrange mergers, prevent contagion.
When a shadow bank fails, it just fails. And it takes its investors with it...
Investors are demanding redemptions. The easy money that flowed into private credit during the boom years is flowing back out. Fund managers are hoarding cash, avoiding new commitments, preparing for the worst.
So just when corporate America needs refinancing the most, just when $500 billion in debt needs to roll over, the very institutions that were supposed to provide that refinancing are stepping back. It's a classic liquidity crunch...
..And when that happens in credit markets, prices don't just rise, they spike. Companies that might have been able to refinance at 8% suddenly face 12, 15, maybe no financing at all. That's when the third domino falls.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE This sector has been quietly bleeding for two years, but most people haven't noticed because the problems have been hidden by accounting tricks and "extend and pretend" strategies. Office buildings across America are sitting 40 to 50% vacant, not because of temporary pandemic effects, but because of permanent structural changes in how Americans work...
..Buildings that were financed based on pre-pandemic occupancy rates and rental income can't support their debt at current vacancy levels. Mortgages that made sense when buildings were 90% occupied become unsustainable when they're 50% occupied.
And these mortgages are coming due. Over the next 18 months, hundreds of billions in commercial real estate debt needs to be refinanced. Some of these banks have 30, 40, even 50% of their loan portfolio in commercial real estate...
..We've already seen the preview. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023, the second largest bank failure in American history. Signature Bank failed the same week. First Republic Bank failed in May 2023. These weren't subprime lenders or risky investment banks. These were supposedly conservative regional banks that got caught holding assets that lost value when interest rates rose rapidly... And these mortgages are coming due. Over the next 18 months, hundreds of billions in commercial real estate debt needs to be refinanced. Some of these banks have 30, 40, even 50% of their loan portfolio in commercial real estate...
..And here's where the fourth domino enters the picture, the bond market.
The United States government currently owes $38.2 trillion. That's more debt than the entire global economy produced in a single year just two decades ago.
The annual interest payment on that debt is approaching $1.2 trillion, more than defense spending, more than Medicare, more than anything except Social Security. And those interest payments are DUE every month, as old debt at low rates matures and gets replaced with new debt at higher rates. For decades, this didn't matter, because there was always demand for US government bonds...
..When the credit crisis hits, when private companies start defaulting, when regional banks start failing, when commercial real estate collapses, investors are going to demand higher yields to hold US government debt, not because the US government is going to default, but because the currency that debt is denominated in is going to be worth less...The United States government currently owes $38.2 trillion. That's more debt than the entire global economy produced in a single year just two decades ago.
The annual interest payment on that debt is approaching $1.2 trillion, more than defense spending, more than Medicare, more than anything except Social Security. And those interest payments are DUE every month, as old debt at low rates matures and gets replaced with new debt at higher rates. For decades, this didn't matter, because there was always demand for US government bonds...
..The government could find itself in a situation where it's borrowing money just to pay interest on existing debt. And that's the definition of a debt spiral... The Fed can't cut rates to zero because inflation is still a concern. The government can't run massive deficits because it's already running a deficit of 7% of GDP during peacetime. The very institutions that saved the system in 2008 are constrained by their own balance sheet problems.
This is why 2026 won't be just another recession. It will be a system reset...
..The insurance industry represents the fifth domino, and it's potentially the most dangerous one because it's the least understood. Life insurance companies, property casualty insurers, reinsurance giants, they've all been reaching for yield in the low interest rate environment. Unable to generate adequate returns from traditional government bonds and high-grade corporate debt, they've moved deeper and deeper into riskier assets... This is why 2026 won't be just another recession. It will be a system reset...
..They're all chasing the same yields, investing in the same asset classes, following the same strategies that seem smart when rates were low but look catastrophic when rates are high. When commercial real estate starts defaulting, when corporate credit blows up, when CLOS start losing value, insurance companies are going to face massive losses on their investment portfolios. But unlike banks, which can raise capital or get bailed out, insurance companies have a different problem.
They have liabilities, policies they've written, claims they have to pay, guaranteed returns they've promised to policyholders. If an insurance company's investment portfolio loses 20% of its value, that's not just a balance sheet problem. It's a solvency crisis.
The company might not have enough assets to cover its liabilities. Policyholders will demand their money back, but the assets can't be liquidated quickly without taking massive losses. It's a classic run on the bank scenario...
..The systemic risk here is enormous because insurance companies are interconnected with every other part of the financial system. They're counterparties to banks through derivatives contracts. They're major holders of corporate bonds and commercial mortgages. They provide credit insurance to other financial institutions. When insurance companies start failing, they don't fail in isolation. They take their counterparties with them... ..This brings us to the sixth domino, and it's the one that makes this crisis different from anything we've seen before, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Since 2008, the Fed has been the buyer of last resort for the American financial system. When mortgage markets seized up, the Fed bought mortgage-backed securities. They have liabilities, policies they've written, claims they have to pay, guaranteed returns they've promised to policyholders. If an insurance company's investment portfolio loses 20% of its value, that's not just a balance sheet problem. It's a solvency crisis.
The company might not have enough assets to cover its liabilities. Policyholders will demand their money back, but the assets can't be liquidated quickly without taking massive losses. It's a classic run on the bank scenario...
When corporate credit markets froze, the Fed created emergency lending facilities. When state and local governments faced funding crises, the Fed stepped in with municipal bond purchases. The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $900 billion before the 2008 crisis to nearly $9 trillion at its peak during the pandemic...
..The Fed essentially became the shock absorber for the entire American financial system. Every crisis, every market dislocation, every liquidity crunch, the solution was the same.
The Fed would create money and buy whatever assets were under stress. But there's a problem with this strategy. It only works if people believe the money the Fed creates has value... And that belief is starting to crack...
..The Fed tried to regain credibility by raising interest rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023. They shrank their balance sheet through quantitative tightening. They talked tough about fighting inflation. The Fed would create money and buy whatever assets were under stress. But there's a problem with this strategy. It only works if people believe the money the Fed creates has value... And that belief is starting to crack...
But they didn't actually solve the underlying problem, they just postponed it. The $9 trillion in assets they created didn't disappear. It's still sloshing around the financial system, creating distortions and imbalances that make the system more fragile, not less.
When the 2026 crisis hits, the Fed will face an impossible choice. They can create more money to bail out failing institutions, but that will trigger a currency crisis, as people lose confidence in the dollar. Or they can let the institutions fail, but that will trigger a deflationary collapse as credit contracts and asset prices plummet.
Either path leads to economic catastrophe...
..American economic hegemony, built on the foundation of dollar dominance, could end within months of the crisis beginning...
..2026 will be the year the American financial system faces its reckoning. Corporate debt, shadow banking, commercial real estate, government bonds, insurance companies, Federal Reserve policy, they're all connected in a web so complex that when one thread snaps, the entire structure unravels. This isn't a prediction anymore. It's mathematics. https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/the-experts-are-telling-me-2026-everything-comes-apart-nothing-can-stop-it Moon of Alabama (to prevent a panic): Executive Order Provides For Bailout Of Overextended AI Companies
By allowing for a bailout of over extended AI companies via ‘Manhattan Project’ sized federal spending Trump is also attempting to prevent a stock market slump that would cost the Republicans the majority in the House. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/11/executive-order-provides-for-bailout-of-overextended-ai-companies.html I have gone over the Russian proposal for ending conflict and Trump’s proposal. In some respects Trump’s proposal gives Putin more of what Putin wants than does the Russian proposal. Trump makes Putin pay for this by requiring the use of Russian frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine and by denying recognition to the area already incorporated into Russia, but still uncleared of Ukrainian forces.
Trump’s proposal, characteristically, also introduces the US into the agreement in a profit-making manner. Frozen Russian assets will be used for payment of US companies tasked with rebuilding Ukraine...
Trump’s proposal, characteristically, also introduces the US into the agreement in a profit-making manner. Frozen Russian assets will be used for payment of US companies tasked with rebuilding Ukraine...
..From the beginning of the military conflict I have said that what Putin wants from the conflict is a mutual security agreement with the West that brings the hostilities, not merely the conflict in Ukraine, to an end. This is what Trump offers. https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-peace-deal-analysis/5906568
From Saturday 11/22/25: “U.S. Has Approved This Escalation”. Kiev Regime Attacks Civilians Within Russian Territory. Russia Downs U.S. Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Act of Sabotage of Trump’s Peace Plan? https://www.globalresearch.ca/breaking-trump-approves-military-escalation-kiev-regime-attacks-civilian-targets-within-russian-territory-russia-downs-u-s-tactical-missile-system-atacms-with-the-support-of-the-u-s/5906411
These systems survive a week or two in Ukraine: Germany Delivers New Patriot Long Range Air Defence Systems to Ukraine: Can They Stop Russian Missile Attacks? https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/germany-delivers-patriot-ukraine
Naked Capitalism analysis fails to look-under-the-hood; takes things at face-value. Yes, there are provisions Europe gets to cut, like paying to rebuild Ukraine.
The Poison Pill in the US Peace Plan for Ukraine: Europe Written Into the Outline https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/the-poison-pill-in-the-us-peace-plan-for-ukraine-europe-written-into-the-outline.html The Germans, French, British, Danes, etc. will pay Ukraine to keep fighting Russia: Back to 1991 borders? "The war will end after Crimea returns to Ukraine, Stefanchuk says. Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk stated that occupied Crimea is part of Ukraine, and the war will end with its return. This was stated during a press conference with Swedish Speaker Andreas Norlén." https://x.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1993035746677031361
U.S. and Russia hold new talks as Ukraine hopes to finalize a peace deal
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with a Russian delegation in the capital of the United Arab Emirates on Monday evening, and was expected to hold more meetings Tuesday, two U.S. officials told NBC News.
“The talks are going well and we remain optimistic," Lt. Col. Jeff Tolbert, an Army spokesman, said in a statement. “Secretary Driscoll is closely synchronized with the White House and the U.S. interagency as these talks progress,” he said.Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with a Russian delegation in the capital of the United Arab Emirates on Monday evening, and was expected to hold more meetings Tuesday, two U.S. officials told NBC News.
A Ukrainian delegation is also in Abu Dhabi and Driscoll is in touch with those officials, according to Tolbert. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/ukraine-deal-zelenskyy-trump-meeting-russia-war-abu-dhabi-talks-rcna245800
Statements and leaks are vague and divergent enough to believe whatever you want: Zelensky Seeks Urgent Meeting With Trump To Negotiate Territorial Concessions 'Sticking Point' Directly
As for President Zelensky, he has stated after Geneva talks that "we see many prospects that can make the path to peace real". But he is reportedly now seeking an urgent meeting with President Trump - by Thursday - in order to negotiate the question of territorial concessions in person...
..Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak told Axios: "I hope the visit of President Zelensky will take place as soon as possible, because ... it will be help President Trump to continue his historical mission to end this war."...
..A US official privy to negotiations is claiming major progress Tuesday, telling ABC News the Ukrainian delegation has agreed to the United States' potential peace plan, at a moment it's still being hotly debated, especially among the Europeans.
"The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal," the US official said, but without specifying much in the way of details. "There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal." https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ukraine-tentatively-agrees-trump-backed-peace-plan-sending-oil-sliding
..A US official privy to negotiations is claiming major progress Tuesday, telling ABC News the Ukrainian delegation has agreed to the United States' potential peace plan, at a moment it's still being hotly debated, especially among the Europeans.
"The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal," the US official said, but without specifying much in the way of details. "There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal." https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ukraine-tentatively-agrees-trump-backed-peace-plan-sending-oil-sliding
Where things stand
• US President Donald Trump says he has directed his special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as momentum builds toward hammering out a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• At the same time, Trump said, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will meet with the Ukrainians, after which the US president hopes to meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – but not until a deal is more finalized. Ukraine says Driscoll is expected in Kyiv “later this week.”
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated earlier that Moscow could reject an amended US peace plan if its terms are “fundamentally different” to the understanding reached during the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska a few months ago. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/russia-ukraine-us-peace-plan-trump-11-25-25
Israel Pays Evangelicals with Trump Ties to Create Pro-Israel Content • US President Donald Trump says he has directed his special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as momentum builds toward hammering out a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• At the same time, Trump said, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will meet with the Ukrainians, after which the US president hopes to meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – but not until a deal is more finalized. Ukraine says Driscoll is expected in Kyiv “later this week.”
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated earlier that Moscow could reject an amended US peace plan if its terms are “fundamentally different” to the understanding reached during the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska a few months ago. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/russia-ukraine-us-peace-plan-trump-11-25-25
The new “Esther Project” foreign influence campaign has been paying Pentecostal consultants with ties to Trump family members. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/israel-pays-evangelicals-with-trump-ties-to-create-pro-israel-content/
Civil Defense says women, children among those killed in multiple attacks that violated cease-fire in place since Oct. 10 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/22-palestinians-killed-in-israeli-strikes-on-homes-vehicles-across-gaza-despite-ceasefire/3751117
On Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, Israel launched a wave of attacks in Gaza after accusing Hamas of crossing the agreed yellow ceasefire line, striking while the six-week-old ceasefire remained in effect.
The yellow line agreed in the peace deal covers about 58% of Gaza, and Israel says dozens of Hamas fighters repeatedly crossed Israeli lines during the ceasefire, violating the truce again today.
The Gaza Health Ministry reported at least 22 killed and 83 wounded in Israeli strikes, including a kamikaze drone that killed five and wounded seven, while the IDF said it killed 11 Hamas militants and captured six in Rafah tunnels, where about 80 fighters remain.
A senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera the group appealed to mediators to stop the ceasefire collapse and accused systematic 'Zionist' violations causing hundreds of deaths and altered withdrawal lines.
Netanyahu's office said Israel eliminated five senior Hamas terrorists and argued it honored the ceasefire while relatives mourned at Al-Aqsa Hospital, Deir al-Balah, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. https://ground.news/article/idf-strike-kills-senior-hamas-commander-abu-abdullah-al-hudaydi-in-gaza
The yellow line agreed in the peace deal covers about 58% of Gaza, and Israel says dozens of Hamas fighters repeatedly crossed Israeli lines during the ceasefire, violating the truce again today.
The Gaza Health Ministry reported at least 22 killed and 83 wounded in Israeli strikes, including a kamikaze drone that killed five and wounded seven, while the IDF said it killed 11 Hamas militants and captured six in Rafah tunnels, where about 80 fighters remain.
A senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera the group appealed to mediators to stop the ceasefire collapse and accused systematic 'Zionist' violations causing hundreds of deaths and altered withdrawal lines.
Netanyahu's office said Israel eliminated five senior Hamas terrorists and argued it honored the ceasefire while relatives mourned at Al-Aqsa Hospital, Deir al-Balah, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. https://ground.news/article/idf-strike-kills-senior-hamas-commander-abu-abdullah-al-hudaydi-in-gaza
Provoked to murder: Somebody despises both Alawites and Bedouins. Who? Curfew Imposed in Syria’s Homs as Sectarian Violence Leave Four Dead
The tribe responded by attacking the Alawite-heavy al-Muhajireen neighborhood in Homs, burning Alawite homes and shops and vandalizing cars while attacking locals. Two young Alawite men, who were reported missing, turned up at a nearby hospital killed under mysterious circumstances. Dozens have been reported wounded in the attacks.
Maj. Gen. Murhaf al-Nassan said that the attack in Zaidal appeared to be meant to undermine stability in the region, and the government has yet to identify who actually carried out the attack. https://news.antiwar.com/2025/11/23/curfew-imposed-in-syrias-homs-as-sectarian-violence-leave-four-dead/
A Palestinian lady-reporter: Israeli forces torture Iranian Tasnim's journalist in prison https://en.mehrnews.com/news/239073/Israeli-forces-torture-Iranian-Tasnim-s-journalist-in-prison
So did JFK in 1963: Kuwait calls for inspecting Israel nuclear facilities https://en.mehrnews.com/news/239058/Kuwait-calls-for-inspecting-Israel-nuclear-facilities
So kill Maduro with a missile while he's on the phone? Report: Trump Plans To Hold Talks With Venezuela’s Maduro
One US official said a diplomatic deal was possible, but it's unclear what sort of agreement would satisfy the Trump administration https://news.antiwar.com/2025/11/24/report-trump-plans-to-hold-talks-with-maduro/Perhaps brought down by China, on the same day; electronic-jamming? US Navy Racing To Recover Crashed Jet And Helicopter From South China Sea https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-navy-racing-recover-crashed-jet-and-helicopter-south-china-sea#google_vignette
Saudi monarchy raises issue with United States although both governments have only exacerbated tensions in the past leading to the current impasse https://www.globalresearch.ca/sudan-internal-conflict-continues-despite-pledges-end-fighting/5906566
Who threatened her. with what? Marjorie Taylor Greene Ditches the D.C. Sewer
The once fierce Trump supporter resigns. Her resignation letter is a scathing rebuke of our decadent, twilight Republic. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/marjorie-taylor-greene-ditches-theIs bad treatment all of it? "It's A Tinder Box": GOP Members Consider Following MTG Into Retirement, Say White House Treats Them 'Like Garbage' https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-tinder-box-gop-members-consider-following-mtg-retirement-say-white-house-treats-them
How do you make it safe when it's an arms-race? Colorado Is Pumping the Brakes on First-Of-Its-Kind AI Regulation to Find a Practical Path Forward https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/colorado-is-pumping-the-brakes-on-first-of-its-kind-ai-regulation-to-find-a-practical-path-forward.html
Everybody's off-switches are in one nice file: Former MI6 Chief Warns of the Security Risks of the UK Government’s Proposed Digital Identity System https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/former-mi6-chief-warns-of-security-risks-of-uks-fledgling-digital-id-system.html
I'm sipping green-tea: Over 1,100 Studies Reveal 12 Natural Compounds With Potent Anti-Cancer Effects Across All Major Tumor Pathways https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/over-1100-studies-reveal-12-natural
Meryl Nass MD points out that scouring the world for fatal viruses and bacteria, then weaponizing them to make protective vaccines is worse than nothing.
NIH Director and Principal Deputy Director: The World Needs a New Pandemic Playbook This article which I just discovered is complementary to the article I wrote using Marburg virus as my example a few days ago. https://merylnass.substack.com/p/nih-director-and-principal-deputy
A scoping review of 109 studies finds 56% of papers suggest a causal link between COVID-19 vaccination and six major autoimmune diseases. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-study-covid-19-vaccines-f6c
Mainstream media now does stories. Here is a farmer: Geoengineering Is No Longer Just A Theory https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/geoengineering-no-longer-just-theory
A 25-person startup is developing technology to block the sun and turn down the planet’s thermostat. The stakes are huge — and the company and its critics say regulations need to catch up. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/11/21/stardust-geoengineering-janos-pasztor-regulations-00646414
Dane Wiggington has been looking at chemtrails a long time: Geoengineering Watch Global Alert News, November 22, 2025, #537 https://geoengineeringwatch.org/geoengineering-watch-global-alert-news-november-22-2025-537/
Power & profits always win. It's Climate-not-matter-ism, isn't it? COP30 pushes through uneasy climate deal that sidesteps fossil fuel concerns
'Failed agreement' made under 'climate denialism,' says Colombian negotiator https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cop30-deal-fossil-fuels-climate-change-crisis-9.6989208What the oceans would do, and maybe did for Noah, if the Earth's rotational axis shifted: The Tsunami Simulation - Discussion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0ObwvP06d0
Catastrophic 12.000 year cycle explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0ObwvP06d0
Basic Human (pictured with Jenny this morning)
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