Assembling The Puzzle,
There is a lot of frustration with the Hormuz War not making sense within the constraints of common knowledge. Rather than concluding that the actions of nations are irrational, "Rational Actor Theory" would seek further information about current and projected circumstances, which might illuminate ways in which the interests of national actors might actually be served by the expected outcomes of their actions. It is assumed that governments lie and obfuscate their real intentions and objectives.
I would like to present again the scenario which I see unfolding, within which the actions of the Trump Administration are rational and may be expected to serve national interests as it sees them.
Israeli interests and actions are seen to direct US Mideast policy, without the reasons for that being completely clear, other than endemic bribery, blackmail and the currying of favor with American Christian factions, security agencies and police departments. American public opinion, including that of a growing fraction of American Jews, has been shifting away from Israel's genocidal and expansionist wars for the past 3 years. The faelty of American politicians to zionist nationalism is now strained. It remains plausible that Benjamin Netanyahu was killed by an Iranian missile strike in early March, with his public appearance at trial called off recently, and now his invitation to Washington to meet with President Trump again not being accepted. The images of him since early March have not been convincingly those of a live human, but more suggestive of AI creations. That does not change the calculus of the interests he has served. They still need ongoing acquisitions to feed the growing "greater Israel" in order to hold the Zionist project together politically. It appears that exit ramps are being put in place for "Netanyahu". They need further destruction of their regional rival, Iran, and to expand into Lebanon and Syria, while completing the takeover of Palestinian homelands and bulldozing Gaza to make way for the resort and business park developments, which might become confluent with the Port of Haifa, the final node of the India-Middle-East-Europe-Economic Corridor, IMEC, the corridor for trade, finance and data, from India, across Arabia, and on to Europe.
The context within which Trumpian foreign policy to rapidly subjugate oil-producing nations by any means possible, and to destroy resistance to the $US global-hegemony protection-racket, is that the final peak of oil + condensates appears to have been in October 2025, after a previous peak in November 2018, followed by the Repo-Crisis in 2019, and COVID-lockdowns in spring 2020, during the financial crisis and going-direct-bailout.
At this point in history economic collapse is assured as total oil + condensate production, which correlates 90% with real economy, declines, and financial collapse, in a world of exponentially expanding debt-money, is hastened.
Why not precipitate the inevitable and get some control-levers on it? The US has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, firmly holding that valve closed now.
There is a shipping delay between the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil and gas shortages that follow from it. Those shortages are starting to hit Europe and Asia.
The US controls Venezuelan oil, and is adding SPR contributions to the global market, as well as refined petrolium and lighter grades of oil and condensates. The US seeks for more of the world to depend on LNG exports from the gulf coast, especially now that Qatar is off-line, and will take years to rebuild. The US is composing a coercive control regime over the world's oil and gas, the energy lifeblood of global industrial economy, especially transportation, mining, farming heavy diesel equipment, food delivery and air travel.
The US seeks cooperation from other oil and gas exporting countries, including Russia, whether voluntary or coerced. The US is holding the strait closed until certain political and economic objectives are met, and can be expected to open it and close it in the future, to tactically sustain the Petrodollar Hegemony.
There are competitors to this, notably China, and the many tributary states which have long been starved of their national resources by comprador elites, loyal to imperial financial directives, not their contrymen.
Technocracy will be the new mode of global governance, instrumentalizing AI, digital money at all levels, tokenization of all assets within the monetary system, making them all contingent upon systemic approval, and denying any unapproved transaction. "De-banking" is to be the death-sentence by ostracizing.
Hold this in consideration, and see if things make more sense going forward.
The Petrobuck Empire wanted to swallow Russia, as it did in the 1990s, and made some bad bets on that, particularly in London, but throughout the EU, and now needs to sustain the war in Ukraine to avoid having to book losses, which would be forced by a peace-settlement declaring most of the valuable Ukrainian assets to now be lost to Russia. That asset write-down would force major bankruptcies.
Nate Hagens, Oil 301: The World After Cheap Energy
As energy becomes scarcer and more contested, geopolitics is not going to become more collaborative and more rational. It will become more desperate and focused on energy security, especially as nations hoard and alliances fracture. The most vulnerable countries, the ones that are dependent on importing energy and food, are going to be hit first and hardest. Currencies and bond markets built on an unending horizon of cheap, dense, and affordable energy will become unstable as trusted markers. The post-WWII global order was built on the foundation of cheap abundant oil tied to American military and financial might. That relationship is now in question.
Nations are now choosing sides based not on ideology, but on energy access. China has signed 27-year gas deals with Qatar and long-term oil contracts with Iran and Russia. The Gulf states are now hedging between Washington and Beijing. Europe, after cutting off Russian pipeline gas, now depends on liquified natural gas that transits the same strait that’s currently closed. We’re watching the real-time fracturing of a global order that was always – underneath the flags and the treaties – an unseen and unstable energy arrangement. The alliances of the next 30 years will be determined by who has hydrocarbons and energy access and who needs it. All of this points in one direction – simplification. https://natehagens.substack.com/p/essay-oil-301-the-world-after-cheap
Simplicius has been frustrated by lack of meaningful context recently: Beaten and Shopworn Trump Settles on Flaccid 'Forever-Blockade' Strat as Broken-Down Carrier Limps Home
Two interesting contradictory pathways are emerging for Trump on Iran, if we are to trust latest MSM reports.On one hand, new reports claim that Trump now sees the twin options of either total withdrawal from Iran or resumption of hostilities as equally bad. The reports claim he therefore prefers to now maintain the blockade indefinitely as the chief operative posture toward the Islamic Republic...
Though many still believe Trump is employing his usual artless wiles to lull Iran into a false sense of security before again attacking when the guard is down. But major news just broke that appears to dim any chances of a serious US military continuation of the conflict. It turns out that the USS Poopy Gerry—as Imetatronink has taken to affectionately calling the ever-troubled floating latrine—is ready to ditch the floundering conflict and head back home to await its uncertain future...
..What was the point of all that CENTCOM bragging we saw last time, that whole routine about assembling the largest carrier strike group in the region in decades? Either it was meant as a last-ditch attempt to scare Iran into concessions, or was just another in a long line of emblematic erraticisms from the current administration’s headless policy... Granted, two carriers is still enough to give Trump plenty to “play with”, should he choose to continue prosecuting his wayward and futile excursion...
..An obviously mentally-declining Trump even confused Iran and Ukraine in an Oval Office interview, telling Kaitlyn Collins that it is Ukraine that has been “militarily defeated” after the US sank “159” of their ships.....Every pathetic attempt to subdue Iran has failed disastrously, and the only scraps left adorning Trump’s golden tabletop are various schemes of economic terrorism against Iranian citizens...
..El Pais reports that Gulf countries have been approaching the US for emergency currency swaps to “bail out” their foundering economies...
..This all after the announcement today that UAE is leaving OPEC and OPEC+, which some fear could induce a domino effect of other departures... https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/beaten-and-shopworn-trump-settles
The US is launching an operation to completely strangle Iran financially.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has officially announced a new phase of massive pressure on Tehran under a large-scale operation codenamed "Economic Rage." This time, the spearhead of US sanctions is aimed at dismantling the Islamic Republic's entire hidden financial system, which allowed the country to survive previous restrictions. This includes the shadow banking infrastructure that facilitates international transactions, as well as the cryptocurrency access mechanisms used by Tehran to circumvent dollar controls. Bessent emphasized that Washington intends to completely paralyze not only the shadow tanker fleet transporting oil to proxy customers, but also the deeply clandestine networks that procure weapons and military components. https://avia-pro.net/news/ssha-zapuskayut-operaciyu-po-polnomu-finansovomu-udusheniyu-irana
He's questioning what Israel wants, isn't he? Vance Reportedly Questions Pentagon's Rosy Assessment Of Iran War
If the primary purpose behind the Trump Administration's snatch-and-grab operation against the illegitimate president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was not readily apparent in January, it should be crystal clear today. Under Maduro, around 75% of the country's energy exports were going to China. This year, the US will be receiving around 50% of the oil supply while China's share is reduced to 10%. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rising-venezuelan-oil-exports-help-insulate-us-energy-crisis
Times of Israel: PM’s office denies reports Netanyahu will visit Washington next week
Hezbollah FPV drone destroys Israeli armored vehicle, injures 12 soldiers in western Galilee
The operation marked the first time a Hezbollah fiber-optic FPV drone has reached the western Galilee https://thecradle.co/articles/hezbollah-fpv-drone-destroys-israeli-armored-vehicle-injures-12-soldiers-in-western-galilee
Oil Spikes As Israeli Defense Chief Says 'Required To Act Again' In Striking Iran, Achieving Objectives
Footage published on Iranian channels with the description that Iranian security forces installed these inflatable rocket launchers throughout the country and reported them to Mossad-affiliated ‘Iran International’, under the guise of an ordinary citizen. Many flight sorties and missiles were wasted on these mockups. https://x.com/i/status/2049900932461105486
The operation marked the first time a Hezbollah fiber-optic FPV drone has reached the western Galilee https://thecradle.co/articles/hezbollah-fpv-drone-destroys-israeli-armored-vehicle-injures-12-soldiers-in-western-galilee
Israeli Defense Minister Katz: "soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come." Oil spikes on this and new reports of Israeli defense build-up at ports, air hubs.
Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will "guard" its "advanced technologies" like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defiant-mojtaba-khamenei-says-gulfs-future-will-be-without-us-presence-vows-protect
Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will "guard" its "advanced technologies" like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defiant-mojtaba-khamenei-says-gulfs-future-will-be-without-us-presence-vows-protect
Footage published on Iranian channels with the description that Iranian security forces installed these inflatable rocket launchers throughout the country and reported them to Mossad-affiliated ‘Iran International’, under the guise of an ordinary citizen. Many flight sorties and missiles were wasted on these mockups. https://x.com/i/status/2049900932461105486
Trump Argues War 'Terminated' Before 60-Day Congressional Approval Deadline, As Iran Submits Latest Proposal To Pakistan MediatorsWhite House officials argue the current absence of fighting between Iranian & US forces means the 60-day timeline for Congressional approval (or US forces must leave) doesn't apply due to the ceasefire. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-argues-iran-war-terminated-60-day-congressional-approval-deadline-iran-submits
No price drop happened, so how's the war? Trump Says Gas Prices Will Drop "Like a Rock" Once Conflict Ends, As Senator Breaks With GOP Leadership On War Powers https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defiant-mojtaba-khamenei-says-gulfs-future-will-be-without-us-presence-vows-protect
The S&P 500 is still at all time highs, but oil prices aren'ot buying any Mideast peace, with WTI stuck above $100/bbl: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
Gold &Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-05-01
..US national debt crossed 100% of GDP for the first time since WWII...
..Israel's defense minister Katz says Israel may continue military campaign against Iran "in the near future" to "fully achieve" objectives (Lord Bebo). Israel received 6,500 tons of US military equipment in one day, with deliveries intensifying (ILRedAlert). US moving more equipment from South Korea bases to Israel...
..US considering first deployment of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, still under development, produced at ~1/month at $41M each...
..IRGC Aerospace Force commander: "We saw the fate of your bases in the region; we will also see your warships"...
..Iranian parliament member: "If Iran is attacked again, you must say goodbye to the oil and gas of the region for a long time" (Hormuz Letter)
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei: the future of the Persian Gulf will be "without America" (multiple sources)
Putin warned Trump during phone call that resumed military action would lead to "extremely adverse consequences", called ground operations "particularly unacceptable and dangerous"...
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei: the future of the Persian Gulf will be "without America" (multiple sources)
Putin warned Trump during phone call that resumed military action would lead to "extremely adverse consequences", called ground operations "particularly unacceptable and dangerous"...
..USS Gerald Ford heading home after 300+ days, longest modern carrier deployment — reducing US naval presence (Lord Bebo). USS Boxer crossing Malacca Strait, likely redeploying to Middle East [amphibious assault ship]...
..Strait of Hormuz traffic: all 12 verified crossings on April 29 were west-to-east only, no return traffic...
..UAE lost its only GlobalEye early warning aircraft (~$1B) to a drone worth ~$20K (The Iran Observer).....Hezbollah's fiber-optic FPV drones proving effective: 12 Israeli soldiers wounded in single Shomera attack, 4 Merkava tanks hit, 1 Hermes 450 drone shot down — all before noon...
Oil breaks wartime highs - Brent above $120, WTI above $110. Brent crude surged past $120/barrel for the first time since June 2022 as Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ordered preparation for an extended blockade. CENTCOM is briefing Trump Thursday on a plan for "short and powerful" strikes against Iranian infrastructure...
UAE exits OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. Shock announcement blindsided partners. Energy minister says UAE "can go to 6 million" bpd if needed. JPM says medium-term prices lower but crude still driven by Hormuz... Pipeline capacity constrains actual near-term ramp to ~400-700k bpd...
China banning export of 7 rare earth elements including samarium, gadolinium, terbium - defense supply chain has ~6 months of inventory before lines stop per Lockheed 10-K disclosure
Gulf urea production down ~60% since war began. Only 11 fertilizer ships transited Hormuz, 44 stuck. US farm bankruptcies +46% YoY https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-29
Keep your girls home from school: US may use hypersonic weapons against Iran — agencyAccording to Bloomberg, if the plan comes to fruition, this will be the first time that the US has deployed hypersonic missiles https://tass.com/world/2124575
Israeli Navy Moves to Seize Gaza Flotilla, Activists Report Jamming and Warships https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israeli-navy-moves-to-seize-gaza-flotilla-activists-report-jamming-and-warships/
Paramedic killed, woman injured in Israeli strikes in northern Gaza https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/169941?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
A Growing Rat Infestation Plagues Tent Cities in Gaza
“We are suffering from two wars,” Majd Sukar, the head of the Preventive Health Department in Gaza City, said. “The war of bombs, and the war of rats.” https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/gaza-rats-rodents-disease-displaced-palestinians-tents
Colonists cut over 200 olive and almond trees south of Hebron https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/169944?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
US-Born Netanyahu Advisor Was Tasked With ‘Relocating’ Palestinians From Gaza
Sources told Haaretz that Caroline Glick approached Somaliland and the DR Congo about the ethnic cleansing plan, but was unsuccessful https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/29/us-born-netanyahu-advisor-was-tasked-with-relocating-palestinians-from-gaza/
Three Lebanese Paramedics Killed by Israeli Double-Tap Strike - Family of five also slain as Lebanon death toll continues to mount https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/29/three-lebanese-paramedics-killed-in-israel-double-tap-strike/
Israeli Commanders Say Lebanon Mission Is to Destroy Shi’ite Villages - ‘This is not about terrorist infrastructure, we are destroying everything,’ https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/29/israeli-commanders-say-lebanon-mission-is-to-destroy-shiite-villages/
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Wednesday that Israel must fully implement the ceasefire between the two countries before beginning direct talks, after Israeli strikes killed more than 20 people over the last two days. https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260429182832.e4iewo0j.html
IDF chief says there’s ‘no ceasefire’ in south Lebanon amid continued fighting with Hezbollah
Trump reportedly pushing back on Israeli efforts to limit talks with Beirut, return to large-scale war; 1 million Lebanese will face food insecurity in coming months, monitor warns https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-says-theres-no-ceasefire-in-south-lebanon-amid-continued-fighting-with-hezbollah/
A UN-backed report said Wednesday that more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon were expected to face acute hunger due to the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah. https://www.spacewar.com/afp/260429125323.b0vldnhs.html
Ex-Mossad chief says Israeli settler violence reminds him of the Holocaust - Tamir Pardo adds that curbing settler assaults could spark a civil war in Israel https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/ex-mossad-chief-compares-settler-violence-holocaust
..S&P 500 new all-time high amid violent rotation - S&P 500 posted highest close ever, up +14.2% since March 30 low — $8.1T in market cap in 23 trading days (Kobeissi). April was best month since Nov 2020...
..ECB stagflation trap - ECB held deposit rate at 2% but likely to hike in June unless energy prices ease (Kobeissi)
Eurozone Q1 growth was just 0.1% while headline inflation surged back above 3%
IEA called the current situation the "biggest energy security threat in history"
Lagarde: inflation "well above 2% in near term", economy "moving away from baseline"...
Eurozone Q1 growth was just 0.1% while headline inflation surged back above 3%
IEA called the current situation the "biggest energy security threat in history"
Lagarde: inflation "well above 2% in near term", economy "moving away from baseline"...
..US economic data: hot inflation, strong labor, collapsing savings...
..75% of US Q1 GDP growth came from AI-related investment...
..China's tungsten exports fell 22.65% in Q1, with APT exports down 98.37% YoY. Japan facing price surges in cutting tools (tphuang)
Belgium reversing nuclear phase-out: shuttered reactors being prepared for restart (dana916)
China unveiled first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier on PLA Navy anniversary (Lord Bebo)
Gas turbine backlog stretches to 2029-2030 for GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi — prices nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center queuing for same machine. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-01
Belgium reversing nuclear phase-out: shuttered reactors being prepared for restart (dana916)
China unveiled first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier on PLA Navy anniversary (Lord Bebo)
Gas turbine backlog stretches to 2029-2030 for GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi — prices nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center queuing for same machine. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-05-01
Gold & Geopolitis, Daily digest: 2026-04-30
..US considering deploying Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to Middle East — first deployment of its kind...
Iran warns of "unprecedented military action" if vessel seizures continue
Putin warned Trump of "devastating consequences" in 1.5-hour call, offered Ukraine Victory-Day ceasefire...
Farm bankruptcies +46% YoY, 1.9M farms — the fewest ever...
..China issuing new regulations allowing confiscation of assets of any foreign entity disrupting its supply chain — in direct response to US seizing Iranian oil bound for China. Also "factoring in US military constraints from Iran conflict" when assessing Taiwan strike. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-30..US depleting oil reserves at fastest pace since 2022. SPR drawn down 7.1M barrels (biggest weekly drain since Oct 2022)...
..Hegseth contradicted himself in congressional hearing: said Iran's nuclear facilities "obliterated" while also claiming they were the justification for war per multiple accounts Iran warns of "unprecedented military action" if vessel seizures continue
Putin warned Trump of "devastating consequences" in 1.5-hour call, offered Ukraine Victory-Day ceasefire...
..Agriculture crisis accelerating - US wheat futures at highest since June 2024, up +30% YTD per Kobeissi
Only 30% of US wheat crop rated good/excellent - US farmers planting least wheat since records began in 1919 Farm bankruptcies +46% YoY, 1.9M farms — the fewest ever...
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-04-29
..OpenAI misses revenue and user targets; CFO warns company may not be able to pay computing contracts. CFO Sarah Friar privately warned OpenAI may not afford its $1.5 trillion in spending commitments. Missed target of 1B weekly users. ChatGPT market share collapsed from 86.7% to 64.5% in 12 months...
..Iran has 12-22 days of usable oil storage remaining per Kpler. Iranian crude exports collapsed ~70% from 1.85M bpd to ~567k bpd. Goldman estimates Iran already curtailed 2.5M bpd. Revenue impact 3-4 months away due to payment lags.....Iran blockade bypass corridors opening
Pakistan opened 6 overland transit corridors to Iran, 3,000+ containers in transit
First loaded LNG tanker and crude supertanker cleared Hormuz - Idemitsu Maru did not use Larak channel
Iran resumed Moscow flights after 2-month halt
IRGC operating toll booth at Larak Island charging $1-2M per transit, some payments in yuan and Bitcoin...
OpenAI's $600B+ committed capex meets slowing growth: Deutsche Bank estimates $143B cumulative negative free cash flow through 2029
INTC and NVDA Chief Accounting Officers both resigned...
Pakistan opened 6 overland transit corridors to Iran, 3,000+ containers in transit
First loaded LNG tanker and crude supertanker cleared Hormuz - Idemitsu Maru did not use Larak channel
Iran resumed Moscow flights after 2-month halt
IRGC operating toll booth at Larak Island charging $1-2M per transit, some payments in yuan and Bitcoin...
..Silver market migration to Shanghai
China imported record 836 tonnes of silver in a single month, 173% above 10-year average, while banning exports
SGE silver at $82.29 with ~$8 premium to spot
COMEX registered silver under 76M oz, open interest collapsed to lowest since Nov 2011...
..AI infrastructure spending crisisChina imported record 836 tonnes of silver in a single month, 173% above 10-year average, while banning exports
SGE silver at $82.29 with ~$8 premium to spot
COMEX registered silver under 76M oz, open interest collapsed to lowest since Nov 2011...
OpenAI's $600B+ committed capex meets slowing growth: Deutsche Bank estimates $143B cumulative negative free cash flow through 2029
INTC and NVDA Chief Accounting Officers both resigned...
..AI bubble concentration hits same level that preceded dot-com burst per Barchart ...
..UK ambassador privately admitted "special relationship" era ending - leaked audio during King Charles' state visit. "There is probably one country that has a special relationship with the United States, and that is probably Israel"
Fed T-bill holdings doubled in four months from $195B to $425B - Hedgeye calls it "QE-lite"China banning export of 7 rare earth elements including samarium, gadolinium, terbium - defense supply chain has ~6 months of inventory before lines stop per Lockheed 10-K disclosure
Gulf urea production down ~60% since war began. Only 11 fertilizer ships transited Hormuz, 44 stuck. US farm bankruptcies +46% YoY https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-29
Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: – Trump To Decide On Three Options
The stalemate in the war on Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz is (mostly) still closed. The U.S. blockade of Iran related sea traffic, though leaky, is still in force. Iran is evaluating the war as being far from over:
Overall, the perception in Iran is that the war is far from over; rather, the naval blockade is seen either as a prelude to further escalation or as a trigger that could bring about a new round of conflict sooner rather than later.
Despite the recall of one of its three aircraft carriers in the region U.S. forces are still in the position and ready to strike at a moments notice.
In short – Both sides are ready to restart the war.
U.S. President Donald Trump has three options:
to continue the blockade of Iran and, in consequence, the blockade of the Strait;
to launch a new bombing campaign against Iran;
to declare victory and order his military leave the Gulf. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/04/war-on-iran-trump-to-decide-on-three-options.html
The stalemate in the war on Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz is (mostly) still closed. The U.S. blockade of Iran related sea traffic, though leaky, is still in force. Iran is evaluating the war as being far from over:
Overall, the perception in Iran is that the war is far from over; rather, the naval blockade is seen either as a prelude to further escalation or as a trigger that could bring about a new round of conflict sooner rather than later.
Despite the recall of one of its three aircraft carriers in the region U.S. forces are still in the position and ready to strike at a moments notice.
In short – Both sides are ready to restart the war.
U.S. President Donald Trump has three options:
to continue the blockade of Iran and, in consequence, the blockade of the Strait;
to launch a new bombing campaign against Iran;
to declare victory and order his military leave the Gulf. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/04/war-on-iran-trump-to-decide-on-three-options.html
Keep your girls home from school: US may use hypersonic weapons against Iran — agency
Times of Israel: Navy intercepts 21 of 58 vessels in Gaza flotilla hundreds of miles from the Strip
Tracking data shows boats near Crete as they are confronted by Israeli forces; 175 activists detained; other vessels told to turn back or proceed to Ashdod if carrying humanitarian aid https://www.timesofisrael.com/navy-begins-intercepting-gaza-flotilla-hundreds-of-miles-from-the-strip/“We are suffering from two wars,” Majd Sukar, the head of the Preventive Health Department in Gaza City, said. “The war of bombs, and the war of rats.” https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/gaza-rats-rodents-disease-displaced-palestinians-tents
Colonists cut over 200 olive and almond trees south of Hebron https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/169944?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Sources told Haaretz that Caroline Glick approached Somaliland and the DR Congo about the ethnic cleansing plan, but was unsuccessful https://news.antiwar.com/2026/04/29/us-born-netanyahu-advisor-was-tasked-with-relocating-palestinians-from-gaza/
Trump reportedly pushing back on Israeli efforts to limit talks with Beirut, return to large-scale war; 1 million Lebanese will face food insecurity in coming months, monitor warns https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-says-theres-no-ceasefire-in-south-lebanon-amid-continued-fighting-with-hezbollah/
Israeli Occupation of Lebanon Threatens Civil War Amid Growing Devastation
Analysts warn that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be hoping to push Lebanon into a civil war, and take advantage of the chaos to permanently occupy Lebanon, with the approval of the US and its allies. https://www.globalresearch.ca/israeli-occupation-lebanon-threatens-civil-war/5924274
Far Right Israeli Settler Movement Enters Syria in a Push for “Greater Israel” https://israelpalestinenews.org/far-right-greater-israel/
Israelis Outraged After Govt Sent Vital Arrow Missiles To Germany Mid-Iran War https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israelis-outraged-after-govt-sent-vital-arrow-missiles-germany-mid-iran-war
Israeli army facing ‘continuous rise’ in soldier suicides: Report - Six active duty soldiers and three non-active reservists ended their own lives this month https://thecradle.co/articles-id/37399
Desperate to secure a conviction of Palestine Action defendants, a draconian British judge has forbidden them from referring to the principle of jury equity in their closing speeches. It is one of countless restrictions aimed at blocking the activists from mounting an effective defense. https://thegrayzone.com/2026/04/29/uk-palestine-action-defendants-terror/
The product was sold as the alternative. Permissionless, censorship-resistant, beyond the reach of any single government.
The whole pitch of crypto, repeated in white papers and conference keynotes for fifteen years, was that this was the exit. The dollar system had become weaponised, the rails could be cut at will, but the chain - the chain was sovereign.
That money didn’t move or got seized. It instantly became decorative. Visible on the chain, but immobile, a monument to a successful misrepresentation. https://no01.substack.com/p/the-cbdc-we-already-have
Trump Is Putting Americans into Digital Prison, Paul Craig Roberts
The Trump regime has shown that its true agenda is to dump Americans into captivity. Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, a George Soros lackey, are using undocumented aliens as an excuse to force American citizens into total digital surveillance.
The Burning Platform explains:
“In a move that exposes the true agenda behind the “America First” rhetoric, the Trump administration is barreling forward with an executive order that will force every American to hand over their biometric facial data or be locked out of the banking system entirely.
Gold & Geopolitics explains what Iran just found out: The CBDC we already have - crypto on a chain
The whole pitch of crypto, repeated in white papers and conference keynotes for fifteen years, was that this was the exit. The dollar system had become weaponised, the rails could be cut at will, but the chain - the chain was sovereign.
Iran took it as advertised. After getting kicked off SWIFT in 2012 and again in 2018, Tehran did exactly what every sanctions-evasion playbook recommended. Bitcoin mining legalised in 2019. Subsidised power rerouted to industrial farms.
Over $3 billion moved through digital assets in 2025 alone. The central bank held at least $507 million in USDT, the supposedly neutral dollar-substitute that wasn’t subject to any single government’s say-so...
..On April 23rd, the US Treasury called Tether and asked them to freeze $344 million of Iranian funds on Tron. Tether did it in one single smart-contract call. Two wallets, blacklisted at the issuer level, $213 million in one and $131 million in the other. Over $3 billion moved through digital assets in 2025 alone. The central bank held at least $507 million in USDT, the supposedly neutral dollar-substitute that wasn’t subject to any single government’s say-so...
That money didn’t move or got seized. It instantly became decorative. Visible on the chain, but immobile, a monument to a successful misrepresentation. https://no01.substack.com/p/the-cbdc-we-already-have
The Trump regime has shown that its true agenda is to dump Americans into captivity. Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, a George Soros lackey, are using undocumented aliens as an excuse to force American citizens into total digital surveillance.
The Burning Platform explains:
“In a move that exposes the true agenda behind the “America First” rhetoric, the Trump administration is barreling forward with an executive order that will force every American to hand over their biometric facial data or be locked out of the banking system entirely.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a longtime Soros protégé who helped wreck the British economy in the 1992 Black Wednesday raid [by Soros on the British currency], has confirmed the policy is “in process.” Banks will be required to verify every customer’s citizenship using a U.S. passport containing embedded RFID chips and government-ready facial recognition biometrics. No passport? No bank account. Period. Real ID, driver’s licenses, and every other common document will not suffice. https://paulcraigroberts.org/trump-is-putting-americans-into-digital-prison/
Ukraine damages energy facilities in Zaporozhye in course of attack - This led to a partial power outage in populated areas of the region, reported regional governor Yevhen Balitsky https://tass.com/politics/2124533
Russian troops were already holding Chernobyl when it was attacked by Ukrainian drones. They still do: U.S. Commits $100 Million to Repair Chornobyl Nuclear Containment Damaged in Russian Drone Strike
Ukraine has established a dedicated national fund to manage incoming international assistance, with the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant formalizing grant agreements to initiate the restoration process... The U.S. share represents roughly one-fifth of the projected total. The State Department indicated it will work with Congress to secure the funding allocation and has called on European partners and other G7 members to provide additional financial support. https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/US-Commits-100-Million-to-Repair-Chornobyl-Nuclear-Containment-Damaged-in-Russian-Drone-Strike/
John Helmer, THE KURSK SYNDROME – PRESIDENT PUTIN IS DISPLAYING SYMPTOMS OF AN OLD PROBLEM RUSSIAN VOTERS RECOGNISE
In Putin’s public speech to a session of his economic ministers and advisors, including Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, on April 15, the President acknowledged the obvious: “Statistics show that economic growth has, unfortunately, been slowing for two consecutive months. Overall, GDP contracted by 1.8 percent between January and February. Manufacturing and industrial production as a whole have suffered losses, as has construction, a strategically important sector.” He then told voters not to blame him.....In Ushakov’s summary, Putin reportedly told Trump that the US threat of “a ground operation on the territory of Iran is completely unacceptable and dangerous.” For alternative, Putin offered “all possible support for diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful outcome of the crisis and proposed a number of considerations aimed at resolving the differences around the Iranian nuclear program. For these purposes active contacts with Iranian representatives, leaders of the countries will continue in the Persian Gulf, as well as with Israel and, of course, with the team of American negotiators."
Putin omitted to record for Trump Russian support for Iran’s “interests”, as Putin had assured Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday. Putin also did not register the Russian objection to the US blockade of the Hormuz Strait, nor to Israeli violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon, according to Ushakov’s read-out. In a press gaggle in Washington, Trump referred to the telephone conversation with Putin. “We talked,” he said, “more about the war in Ukraine, but he would like to be of help. And I said before, you help me, I want to end your war. So, we had a good talk. I've known him a long time. I think he was ready to make a deal a while ago. I think some people made it difficult for him to make a deal, but we talked more about Ukraine.” https://johnhelmer.net/the-kursk-syndrome-president-putin-is-displaying-symptoms-of-an-old-problem-russian-voters-recognise/#more-94103
Gilbert Doctorow, Judging Freedom’ edition of 29 April 2026: Is Putin on the ropes?
I owe Judge Andrew Napolitano...for discussing with me earlier the ‘unthinkable’ in Russian affairs, the possible political defeat of Vladimir Putin’s governing party, United Russia, in the September elections to the lower house of the legislature, the State Duma. As I mention in this chat, latest poll figures put United Russia at just 20% of the electorate, which is a one-third drop from its usual position of 30%,,,
..If United Russia is indeed scoring 20% electoral support, then it will be neck and neck with the second largest party in Russia, the Communist Party, led by Gennady Zyuganov. And last week, on the anniversary of the birth date of Lenin, delivered a speech in the Duma in which he warned that if the economic and financial policies of the government do not change fundamentally, then there may be in the autumn a new Russian Revolution as in 1917. What he had in mind was the February Revolution, which was in effect a palace coup, that forced Tsar Nicholas II to abdicate. As we know, that put Russia on a slippery path which ended in the Communist Revolution of October 1917.
For all of these reasons, I say that the elections in September are as important for Putin’s continued hold on power as the November midterm elections are for Donald Trump. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/judging-freedom-edition-of-29-april
For all of these reasons, I say that the elections in September are as important for Putin’s continued hold on power as the November midterm elections are for Donald Trump. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/judging-freedom-edition-of-29-april
Alex Krainer on the dealmaking visit of King Charles, presumably on City of London business: Charles III and Britain's pathological obsession with Russia
Yesterday, Charles III called for World War III, echoing the 1945 "Project Unthinkable" Britain's obsession with waging war on Russia is now a mortal danger to all of us. https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/charles-iii-and-britains-pathologicalNews broke last week that starting May 1 Russia will no longer transit oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline. This is a disaster for Germany and couldn’t come at a worse time with the global supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.
The Kazakh oil that Russia delivers to Germany makes up roughly 17 percent of the supply at the Schwedt refinery, which provides the vast majority of diesel, petrol and heating oil for East Germany, including Berlin.
Schwedt itself was seized from the Russian oil company Rosneft in 2022, and as Germany scrambles to find new delivery routes for the Kazakh oil, this latest saga offers yet another reminder of how fantastical and self-defeating this whole conflict with Russia is for Berlin. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/revenge-is-a-dish-best-served-cold-russia-deals-germany-impeccably-timed-oil-blow.html
The Kazakh oil that Russia delivers to Germany makes up roughly 17 percent of the supply at the Schwedt refinery, which provides the vast majority of diesel, petrol and heating oil for East Germany, including Berlin.
Schwedt itself was seized from the Russian oil company Rosneft in 2022, and as Germany scrambles to find new delivery routes for the Kazakh oil, this latest saga offers yet another reminder of how fantastical and self-defeating this whole conflict with Russia is for Berlin. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/revenge-is-a-dish-best-served-cold-russia-deals-germany-impeccably-timed-oil-blow.html
US presidential security is purpose-designed to be weak, says a top Russian FSB anti-terrorism expert.
The US Secret Service is kept vulnerable to allow for assassination attempts against American leaders, a Russian special forces veteran says.
The latest assassination attempt on US President Donald Trump was a complete security failure. It was a product of systemic weakness that may be deliberate, a special forces veteran of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has told RT. The US Secret Service is kept vulnerable to allow for assassination attempts against American leaders, a Russian special forces veteran says.
Cole Tomas Allen, a 31‑year‑old teacher from California, has been charged with trying to assassinate the US president during a dinner event at the Washington Hilton on Saturday.
Allen had checked into the hotel the day before. On the day of the attack, he used an internal stairwell to get to the hotel’s terrace level, where the event was held...
..Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Andrey Popov, a veteran of the FSB’s elite Alpha Group anti‑terrorism unit, says the Secret Service made several blatant organisational mistakes. Allen had checked into the hotel the day before. On the day of the attack, he used an internal stairwell to get to the hotel’s terrace level, where the event was held...
He suggested that its repeated failures to prevent attacks on the American leader are ’part of the system.’
According to Popov, such an incident would have never happened if the Security Service had followed standard security and anti-terrorism procedures. If the US Security Service had done its due diligence ahead of the event
This means properly vetting all the hotel guests, reviewing building plans, sealing doors and ventilation, setting up proper metal detectors, and stationing additional security forces...
..‘In an ordinary decent hotel, a person from the budget zone simply cannot physically get into the VIP zone,’ he said. In Russia, such an incident could have never taken place...
..He pointed out that security systems in the Moscow Metro are of a much higher standard than at the Trump dinner. Metal detectors are installed that cannot be physically bypassed, and multiple security officers in high traffic areas. ‘Moscow can afford this, but the Hilton hotel apparently cannot,’ he remarked...
..According to Popov, the Secret Service appears to be intentionally kept this way to allow certain forces to have the possibility of physically eliminating the US president if he does something against their will.
‘This is not only about Trump. This has probably been going on since Kennedy. So that the president feels, as we say, someone’s hot breath on his back if he suddenly misbehaves and does not listen to someone’s advice,’ Popov suggested.
At the same time, Popov admitted that there are certain abnormalities in the latest attack on Trump, suggesting it could have been staged. He, as well as several keen-eyed users online, have noted the unusually calm response of some of the attendees to the gunshots and even Trump’s own demeanour during and after the incident. ‘To him, it did not seem like a surprise,’ Popov said, adding that Americans actively use such things to interrupt an information wave that is unfavorable to them at that moment. ‘This is not only about Trump. This has probably been going on since Kennedy. So that the president feels, as we say, someone’s hot breath on his back if he suddenly misbehaves and does not listen to someone’s advice,’ Popov suggested.
‘We see that already in the news summary. Nobody is reading the US reports on the war on Iran. Everyone is only laughing. Iran is winning. And that, in my opinion, does not make Trump very happy.’
Popov predicted that, as with the previous assassination attempts on Trump, nobody will be held responsible for this latest incident. No changes will be made in the Secret Service. The service must be ’kept in a deprived state’ to allow further attempts on presidents.
‘It is part of their democracy. If they suddenly elect the wrong president, the truly democratic forces must have the ability to correct the situation by eliminating him.’ https://michaelwalshwriter.com/2026/04/29/assassination-attempt-was-staged-russian-special-forces-veteran/
Popov predicted that, as with the previous assassination attempts on Trump, nobody will be held responsible for this latest incident. No changes will be made in the Secret Service. The service must be ’kept in a deprived state’ to allow further attempts on presidents.
‘It is part of their democracy. If they suddenly elect the wrong president, the truly democratic forces must have the ability to correct the situation by eliminating him.’ https://michaelwalshwriter.com/2026/04/29/assassination-attempt-was-staged-russian-special-forces-veteran/
Global data center power demand is projected to hit 84 GW by 2027—a 50 percent jump from 2023 levels—with AI workloads accounting for 27 percent of that total...
..The grid cannot keep up with AI. For decades, electricity demand grew slowly and predictably, giving utilities comfortable margins to plan capacity years in advance. That model broke almost overnight. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, utilities’ five-year summer peak demand forecasts jumped from 38 GW to 128 GW, a more than threefold increase in a single planning cycle. Unlike traditional server loads, which are relatively flat and predictable, AI inference and training jobs generate sharp, near-instantaneous power spikes. Large-scale GPU clusters can produce fluctuations of hundreds of megawatts within seconds. That’s a load behavior utilities have no historical model for.
Energy companies are no longer treating hyperscale data centers as large customers to be served from the grid, but rather as anchor infrastructure to be co-built with. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-grid-wasnt-built
"If you look at the statute for refilling a prescription, it clearly says that the refilling must be authorized by a 'prescriber'—in other words, according to the statute, a 'practitioner licensed by law.'" https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-04-autonomous-ai-renews-drugs-utah.html
Paul Marik MD explains how cancer creates its own metabolic milieu, and how to thwart that: Reprogramming the Tumor Microenvironment: The Metabolic and Immunologic Trap - The Role of Repurposed Drugs and Nutraceuticals in Metabolic Oncology https://substack.com/home/post/p-195558467
Dr. Marik gives detailed explanations for a simple intervention, Exercise and Eliminate Refined Carbs and Sugars: Insulin Resistance: The Silent Engine of Modern Disease - The condition driving obesity, heart disease, cancer, and cognitive decline—yet rarely diagnosed until it’s too late https://substack.com/home/post/p-195033082
This was top-down, concerted and is documented: BREAKING: Senate Investigation Finds FDA Officials Covered-Up 25 COVID Shot Safety Signals
FDA’s own data flagged sudden cardiac death, heart attacks, blood clots, neurological damage, and dementia… and the FDA analyst uncovering it was ordered to “cease and desist.” https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-senate-investigation-finds-f15Celia Farber has more, even worse: Unintended Oversights Corrected: The Real Numbers - Two Sources That Deserve Spotlight Attention https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/unintended-oversights-corrected-the
Celia Farber, NIH Terminates All Grants To Ralph Baric, UNC Places Him On Leave
I'm Naming Fauci Stasi, The Cult That Crushed His Critics For Decades, And Openly Declared War On Independent Science Journalism In 2006. It Will Take Time; The Cult Of Fauci Did Not Start With Covid https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/nih-terminates-all-grants-to-ralph
Climate Physicist, Anastassia Makarieva: China at an Ecohydrological Crossroads, Part III: New Perspectives - How ecosystem recovery dynamics can change long-term projections of China's water cycle
In this concluding post of the China at an Ecohydrological Crossroads mini-series, we consider what actually happened to China’s water cycle during the decades of re-greening and how the available data can be interpreted when ecosystem processes are taken into account. https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/china-at-an-ecohydrological-crossroads-dc5I'm Naming Fauci Stasi, The Cult That Crushed His Critics For Decades, And Openly Declared War On Independent Science Journalism In 2006. It Will Take Time; The Cult Of Fauci Did Not Start With Covid https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/nih-terminates-all-grants-to-ralph
Steve Kirsch explains that after the clinical trial ended, many participants chose to get antibody testing to see if they had gotten the "vaccine" or not, and if they had active COVID that day, or not. The mRNA recipients had recently contracted COVID at the same rate as placebo recipients. Near universal RT-PCR testing at the end of the Moderna trial showed no significant difference between groups
Near universal RT-PCR testing at the end of the blinded phase of the Moderna trial showed positives 157 placebo vs. 153 vaccine. At best, after ~2-3 months, any "protection" was gone. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/near-universal-rt-pcr-testing-at Anton Petrov explains how fungi release ice-nucleation proteins which become airborn and seed rain clouds, complimenting Biotic Pump dynamics. Mushrooms Have an Ability to Control Rain According to New Study https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qYyhOjTtSk
Hydrologic Participant (pictured in spring garden after April showers)
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