Hedged In,
The world is burning up emergency reserves of oil, gas and refined fuels, while primary flows remain blocked, as if primary flows are being used, not emergency reserves. This will end suddenly, like Wile-E-Coyote going off a cliff.
Why are we being set up this way?
I remember the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo against countries that supported Israel in the September war. Americans were shocked, even traumatized, sat in gas lines for hours, started buyng VW Beetles, Toyotas and those little Honda cars. We were never the same, though most people now never knew those days.
This will be worse by all calculations. They are not difficult calculations, looking at what percentage of oil has been pulled off the market. It is more than 1973 and 1979 together. The strategic petroleum reserves that were put in place after 1973 are being exhausted, in order to re-create the shock they were designed to prevent.
The global financial system is stressed, chronically stressed, paying too much debt-service for nothing in return, except maintaining the financial system at higher parasitic cost every day. Financial systems re-set under stress periodically, about every 4 generations, like after WW-2, for instance.
Is this prelude to a global financial and economic reset? I have not been consulted or informed, though nobody except the 0.001% gets let in on these things.
The war against oil, gas and fertilizer is a war against people surviving. There will be some alternative other than death presented to us. We are likely to take it.
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-20
The Treasury blinked. Hours before a 20Y auction that was tracking toward the highest yield on record, Bessent doubled long-end buyback operations from $2bn to $4bn - and total US debt crossed $40 trillion the same afternoon. Gold ripped ~$175, the dollar hit an 11-week low, bitcoin cleared $70k, and GDX had its best day in 52 weeks. Everything else - Hormuz tanker turnbacks, the Kyiv mega-strike, Trump's "Economic D-Day" on Iran - is running in parallel and got mostly drowned out by the bond desk.....Treasury: buybacks doubled to $4bn/op, $40T crossed, 20Y auction tails anyway - The 20Y priced at 5.204% vs 5.199% WI - a 0.5bp tail, biggest since February, despite the intervention (zerohedge). Without it, the auction would have been the highest-yielding 20Y on record; it closed just inside the Oct '23 print of 5.245% (zerohedge).
30Y fell ~9bps to 5.196%, 10Y to 4.647%; the 30Y fixed mortgage reached 6.75% on Tuesday, against a 10Y that traded below 4% before the Iran war began in late February (shanaka86)...
30Y fell ~9bps to 5.196%, 10Y to 4.647%; the 30Y fixed mortgage reached 6.75% on Tuesday, against a 10Y that traded below 4% before the Iran war began in late February (shanaka86)...
..Interest cost: total US interest now $1.4tn, on track to pass Social Security's $1.6tn by 2028 (zerohedge). That's $3.8bn/day, versus $3.1bn on Medicare and $2.5bn on defense (KobeissiLetter). Monday's semi-annual coupon payment was $85bn - the largest on record (zerohedge)...
..Structural frame of the day from TaviCosta: US debt-to-GDP is now roughly at WWII levels, but back then nearly half of Treasuries were backed by gold - today it's about 3%...
..Iran weighs striking US military targets inside Europe. FT-sourced: IRGC has assessed strikes on Bulgaria's Bezmer Air Base and RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus once its 3–4 week ultimatum expires (HormuzLetter, HormuzReport, zerohedge)...
..Hormuz: three tankers turned back in 24h against Axios' claimed 10 mb/d southern route - Axios, citing US officials: 10 million barrels a day - roughly half pre-war volume - are moving out of the strait via the Omani coastal route, and "the IRGC can be a nuisance, but they don't control the strait. We do" (BrettErickson28, zerohedge)...Iran weighs striking US military targets inside Europe. FT-sourced: IRGC has assessed strikes on Bulgaria's Bezmer Air Base and RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus once its 3–4 week ultimatum expires (HormuzLetter, HormuzReport, zerohedge)...
The tracking data doesn't support it. LVision_Trading mapped the Aug 17 satellite pass and found only 2 new STS pairs across Fujairah and Sohar, holding the count at 3.3 mb/d on a 7-day average.
Turnbacks are stacking: UAE-owned LPG tanker Yellow Stone pushed back by the IRGC Navy - the second failed transit in 24 hours (MenchOsint); Indian-registered Vaughan turned around overnight (MenchOsint); three China-owned tankers carrying or loading Iraqi crude stopped the day before (MenchOsint). Bloomberg tracked the Sea V and Hestia both U-turning (chigrl)...
..Iran: secondary sanctions on "any country" run into the country they can't sanction - RnaudBertrand makes the sharpest structural point: "ANY country" won't include China. In May the US tried to sanction Chinese refineries for buying Iranian oil; Beijing's Commerce Ministry issued a formal prohibition order stating the sanctions "shall not be recognized, enforced, or complied with," and Washington never meaningfully enforced. "ANY country" really means "any country we can actually coerce."
JustDario puts it more bluntly: the "never seen before" sanctions to cripple Iran's economy turn out to be tariffs on third countries, one year after the tariff programme's own results.
Tehran's escalation ladder: an Iranian MP argues the best answer is withdrawal from the NPT (MilitarySummary); the IRGC spokesman says warheads in a new war would be "completely different" from previous rounds (PressTV). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-20
JustDario puts it more bluntly: the "never seen before" sanctions to cripple Iran's economy turn out to be tariffs on third countries, one year after the tariff programme's own results.
Tehran's escalation ladder: an Iranian MP argues the best answer is withdrawal from the NPT (MilitarySummary); the IRGC spokesman says warheads in a new war would be "completely different" from previous rounds (PressTV). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-20
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-19
Sort-of, "Details at eleven"... "Economic D-Day": Trump Announces "Most Crushing Economic Operation Ever" Against Iran https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uae-cuts-ties-iran-warns-gulf-states-against-helping-washington-kpler-says-us-navy
Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism, Iran War: Further Admission of Weakness With New Super Duper Trump Sanctions Threat; Israel Moves Against Turkiye Risk Broader Conflagration; Bessent at Odds with Fed in Move to Contain Longer-Dated Treasury Yields
Macgregor regards the Israel move as reckless, particularly now when Israel is clearly overextended. He also sees an escalation to direct confrontations as risking a much bigger regional war.
From a lightly edited machine transcript:
So that much I think we can say when this first began, this sort of Turkish Israeli agreement that we crafted in order to promote the dissolution of Syria, in other words, its liquidation and then its resurrection subsequently in the hands of our friends from ISIS…
I said that at the time I thought it was the Middle East’s version of the Nazi Soviet pact in 1939, that it was a temporary cessation of hostilities. It would not last and inevitably there would be an Israeli Turkish war.
So I fully expect that that will occur at some point in the future.
This is an extraordinarily bad time for Israel to cultivate bad relations with the Turks because the Turks, despite all of the unkind things said by both sides, have continually transported oil from Azerbaijan through Turkey down past Syria and into Israel. The Turks have also sold billions of dollars worth of goods, especially agricultural products to the Israelis. So Erdogan had practiced what he does best, which is to talk out of both sides of his mouth…This has been a sore point, I think, with a lot of people in the in the Muslim world. Most Americans are completely unaware of it…
Since then, we’ve seen lots of cooperation between the Iranians and the Turks to deal with the Kurdish problem. And the Kurds, of course, not all of them, but a large portion of them are exceedingly dependent upon Israeli support, arms assistance, and intelligence. And indeed, we cooperated with Mossad in a vain hope of stirring up a Kurdish rebellion/invasion of Iran. The Iranians had them targeted, destroyed them, and I don’t see much evidence that that’s going to happen.
And of course, the Turks had no interest in letting that be successful either….
It’s a very bad idea on the part of the Israelis because in the meantime you’ve had this new alignment Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and everybody has said well what’s it really about? Well contrary to popular belief it’s not about attacking Iran. I’m sorry it is not an anti-Iranian alliance.
It has a great deal to do with putting an end ultimately at some point in time to the Greater Israel project. They’re not going to allow that to succeed. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/08/iran-war-further-admission-of-weakness-with-new-super-duper-trump-sanctions-threat-israel-moves-against-turkiye-risk-broader-conflagration-bessent-at-odds-with-fed-in-move-to-contain-longer-dated-t.html
So that much I think we can say when this first began, this sort of Turkish Israeli agreement that we crafted in order to promote the dissolution of Syria, in other words, its liquidation and then its resurrection subsequently in the hands of our friends from ISIS…
I said that at the time I thought it was the Middle East’s version of the Nazi Soviet pact in 1939, that it was a temporary cessation of hostilities. It would not last and inevitably there would be an Israeli Turkish war.
So I fully expect that that will occur at some point in the future.
This is an extraordinarily bad time for Israel to cultivate bad relations with the Turks because the Turks, despite all of the unkind things said by both sides, have continually transported oil from Azerbaijan through Turkey down past Syria and into Israel. The Turks have also sold billions of dollars worth of goods, especially agricultural products to the Israelis. So Erdogan had practiced what he does best, which is to talk out of both sides of his mouth…This has been a sore point, I think, with a lot of people in the in the Muslim world. Most Americans are completely unaware of it…
Since then, we’ve seen lots of cooperation between the Iranians and the Turks to deal with the Kurdish problem. And the Kurds, of course, not all of them, but a large portion of them are exceedingly dependent upon Israeli support, arms assistance, and intelligence. And indeed, we cooperated with Mossad in a vain hope of stirring up a Kurdish rebellion/invasion of Iran. The Iranians had them targeted, destroyed them, and I don’t see much evidence that that’s going to happen.
And of course, the Turks had no interest in letting that be successful either….
It’s a very bad idea on the part of the Israelis because in the meantime you’ve had this new alignment Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and everybody has said well what’s it really about? Well contrary to popular belief it’s not about attacking Iran. I’m sorry it is not an anti-Iranian alliance.
It has a great deal to do with putting an end ultimately at some point in time to the Greater Israel project. They’re not going to allow that to succeed. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/08/iran-war-further-admission-of-weakness-with-new-super-duper-trump-sanctions-threat-israel-moves-against-turkiye-risk-broader-conflagration-bessent-at-odds-with-fed-in-move-to-contain-longer-dated-t.html
From Iran: Exclusive: Reports of Iranian missile attack on UAE unfounded; Zionist false flag imprint evident https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/08/18/774638/probe-rejects-claim-Iran-attack-UAE
Qusra is where Israel’s lies about settler violence hit a wall - This method of ethnic cleansing, whereby settlers establish an outpost, force the families out, and take over their property, has succeeded countless times across the West Bank. In Qusra, the news cycle noticed before it was too late. https://israelpalestinenews.org/qusra-is-where-israels-lies-about-settler-violence-hit-a-wall/
Since Aug. 9, occupiers, under the protection of the Israeli army, have surrounded three homes housing around 13 Palestinians in the town south of Nablus governorate, obstructing the delivery of basic necessities. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/collusion-between-israeli-army-occupiers-seeks-to-reshape-palestinian-reality/4032271
Israel preparing execution wing for Palestinian prisoners, rights group warns https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/19/368616/
Hellish: Ceuta Mothers Weep In Streets; Rapes Force Women To Flee; Kids' Parks Smeared In Shit https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hellish-ceuta-mothers-weep-streets-rapes-force-women-flee-kids-parks-smeared-shit
Ceuta Cops Claim Invaders Are Dragging Girls Into Mountains For Gang-Rapes https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ceuta-cops-claim-invaders-are-dragging-girls-mountains-gang-rapes
How Can This Be Real? The Home Office in the United Kingdom is now handing asylum seekers a nine-page booklet and posters spelling out that rape is illegal, sex with children is a crime, women are equal to men, and you cannot mutilate girls' genitals. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-can-be-real
Today in dystopia, police have been wrongfully arresting people based on faulty information from AI-assisted Flock surveillance footage instead of actually investigating the evidence of the crime.
In an article titled “She Spent 7 Months in Legal Hell After Cops Used Flock Surveillance To Identify the Wrong Car,” Reason Magazine documents multiple instances of innocent people having their lives upended in legal battles because police slammed them with charges based on incorrect Flock camera data which could have easily been ruled out by some basic verification. https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/today-in-dystopia-we-have-cameras
The Orwellian Company Behind ICE’s New Electric Shock Gloves - “With a glove, there are no burn marks or scars.” That makes it hard for victims to sue.
FDA Data Reanalysis Sent to HHS Finds Moderna’s mRNA Flu Shot Approval Should Be Immediately Withdrawn
We directly reanalyzed the FDA’s own data used to approve mFLUSIVA and found an extreme risk-benefit profile that is impossible to justify. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-fda-data-reanalysis-sent
Is it almost time to have presidential elections and negotiate a capitulation to Russia? Simplicius, Ukraine’s Economy Braces for Disaster as Zelensky Faces New Political Challenge https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-economy-braces-for-disaster
China is serious about Japan not having (their own) nukes, but I wonder about Russia. Andrew Korybko, The Chinese Ambassador To Russia Issued An Ominous Warning To Japan https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-chinese-ambassador-to-russia
A coastal gas pipeline from Nigeria to Spain is planned. Andrew Korybko, The West African Pipeline Is Inherently Geopolitical https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west-african-pipeline-is-inherently
Caitlin Johnstone, Today In Dystopia: "We Have Cameras Everywhere In That Town"
In an article titled “She Spent 7 Months in Legal Hell After Cops Used Flock Surveillance To Identify the Wrong Car,” Reason Magazine documents multiple instances of innocent people having their lives upended in legal battles because police slammed them with charges based on incorrect Flock camera data which could have easily been ruled out by some basic verification. https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/today-in-dystopia-we-have-cameras
“We have a saying: Feeling is believing,” Compliant Technologies CEO Jeff Niklaus said in one 2022 YouTube video. In promotional clips, you can see people losing control of their limbs, falling to the ground, and crying out in pain after a light touch from the GLOVE. In 2022, the company called it a “weapon” in Instagram posts. Since then, though, it’s downgraded the language to “a Conductive Distraction and De-escalation device,” branding the technology on its website as “humane.”
Human rights organizations like Amnesty International have long raised concerns about electric shock devices like the GLOVE, as well as other products that Compliant Technologies sells, like electric shock belts and vests, which the company recommends for prisoner transport, courtroom use, and use on “combative individuals” during medical procedures like blood draws. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/08/ice-shock-gloves-torture-compliant-technologies-jeff-niklaus/
Human rights organizations like Amnesty International have long raised concerns about electric shock devices like the GLOVE, as well as other products that Compliant Technologies sells, like electric shock belts and vests, which the company recommends for prisoner transport, courtroom use, and use on “combative individuals” during medical procedures like blood draws. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/08/ice-shock-gloves-torture-compliant-technologies-jeff-niklaus/
The gelatin in the shots can induce alpha-gal allergy: BREAKING: First-Ever Study Links Vaccines to the Explosion of Alpha-Gal Syndrome
More than 90% of U.S. children are injected with alpha-gal-bearing mammalian gelatin before school entry, raising the possibility of direct sensitization or immune priming before a later tick bite. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-first-ever-study-links-vaccinesWe directly reanalyzed the FDA’s own data used to approve mFLUSIVA and found an extreme risk-benefit profile that is impossible to justify. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-fda-data-reanalysis-sent
Jessica Rose Ph.D. (Please see top comment) What did Anthony Fauci mean when he wrote “GAME ON!!!”? Thoughts following meditation on this question https://jessicar.substack.com/p/what-did-anthony-fauci-mean-when
"Misinformation" disputes government narratives: BMJ Retracts 2024 Excess Deaths Paper for the Sin of Spreading "Misinformation" https://www.soniaelijah.com/p/bmj-retracts-2024-excess-deaths-paper
Sasha Latypova highlights an alternate form of "solving": Whitney Webb: "Solving Racism by Vaccination?" https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/whitney-webb-solving-racism-by-vaccination
John Leake, NIAID’s David Morens Pleads Guilty to Concealing Records of Coronavirus Gain-of-Function Research Grant - Like Al Capone going to jail for income tax evasion. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/niaids-david-morens-pleads-guilty
John Leake, What Were Morens & His Co-Conspirators Doing? - Analyzing what Fauci’s senior advisor was trying to accomplish with Peter Daszak and Gerald Keusch https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/what-were-morens-and-his-co-conspirators
Shorter Than Okra (pictured in summer garden)
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