Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Concerted Resistance

 Conscientious Objectors,

​  The War Has Started
  West Asia may be headed toward a large-scale war that will extend well beyond the Gaza Strip and southern Israel, now mired in violent conflict...
​..Hamas did not coordinate its military operation with any of its Resistance Axis allies. It also did not plan to achieve the stunning results that were soon to follow. The Qassam Brigades' immediate goal was only to destroy Israeli army positions around the Gaza Strip and capture as many soldiers as possible, which they could later exchange for the thousands of Palestinian captives in Israeli prisons.
​  But the Palestinian resistance forces were taken by surprise at the laxity of the occupation army. Contrary to expectations, they stumbled upon security vacuums and poorly guarded military sites in which a large number of enemy soldiers and officers were fast asleep. It was this unexpected opportunity that prodded the Palestinian fighters to reach for bigger gains.
​  Hamas' military leadership planned to carry out this operation in complete secrecy. Just weeks earlier, their fighters had conducted military maneuvers/exercises that were observed by the Israelis. But Tel Aviv's rather complacent intelligence assessment had been that "Hamas is training for what it does not dare to do."
The Israelis, in short, thought that Hamas was merely flexing in order to gain financial concessions for Gaza. No actual operation was ever expected by Israel's military brass...

​..The veil of secrecy over the operation also extended to the Hamas fighters who carried out the attack. Sources close to Hamas say that their cadres believed, until the morning of the operation, that they were assembling for a training exercise, not for the real thing.
​  Very few knew details of the comprehensive attack plan. Even Hamas' allies in Lebanon and Iran learned of the operation at zero o'clock and not a moment before, according to well-informed sources in the Resistance Axis.
​  Even for this axis, the Hamas operation went beyond all possible expectations. Although true that many of the Hamas tactics employed are shared among the Axis' fighters in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen, the innovation in the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was the signature of the Al-Qassam Brigades, and particularly its brilliant leader Muhammad Deif.
​  The operation was coordinated with remarkable professionalism: accurate and detailed intelligence was amassed, high-level training exercises organized, secrecy was paramount, and superior coordination was established between the myriad drones, paratroopers, and vast majority of Hamas fighters who crossed into the occupation state, through tunnels and above ground.
​  Al Qassam also planned to target Israeli communications towers and all military sites surrounding Gaza. From a military perspective, this was a near-perfect operation that led to the destruction of all the facilities of the Israeli army's “Gaza Division" and the annihilation of entire Israeli brigades. For Israel, this was a total humiliation - something it had never experienced before, even in the devastating 1973 Arab-Israeli war...

.. While Israel has been scurrying around to mobilize its troops and equipment for a counterattack, the Americans sent messages to the Resistance Axis - specifically Iran and Hezbollah - saying, essentially: “We don’t want this to escalate. We want and need stability on the Lebanese border with Israel. We are urging you not to interfere in this war.” ...
..Within the axis of resistance, from Iran to Gaza, there is a uniform decision to prevent the defeat of any of the principal allies. As this axis made clear during the Syrian war, a major attack on one will be viewed as an attack on all. Today, their red line is preventing the collapse of the resistance in Gaza...
​..Tel Aviv and Washington want to take down the Palestinian resistance while ensuring that no other battle fronts flare up to distract from that mission. Of course, the Resistance Axis principals will seek to do exactly the opposite, doing what is necessary to distract Israel from its strategic objective.
​  The situation is very complicated. If Israel manages to eliminate the Palestinian resistance - which it has never been able to do before - the entire region will undergo seismic changes and Tel Aviv will be able to impose its will across occupied Palestine.
​  Those gains would be extremely painful: the crippling of the Palestinian fighting spirit; No impediment to the Judaization of the al-Aqsa mosque; the possible annexation of the West Bank; increased settlement building; the mass detention of Palestinians with impunity; normalization with all remaining Arab and Muslim countries; and the loss of the Resistance Axis' Palestinian ally.
​  These variables would fundamentally alter the balance of power in West Asia. The Axis of Resistance will not stand by idly and allow an Israeli ground operation against Gaza's resistance - it will throw in new variables to confound and weaken the enemy.
​  If Tel Aviv - with western cover - decides to take this fight with the Palestinian resistance to the wall instead of striking a long overdue compromise and dialing back its occupation, other battle fronts will be opened against Israel's military forces. As to the method, form, and location of those new frontlines, there are countless possibilities that will be kept under wraps as the picture gets clearer.

  ​Gilbert Doctorow on how Russian experts are talking about the war in Israel/Palestine from a military perspective.
​  Why is this difference in what is reported important?  Because coverage of the slaughter of civilians by Hamas fighters and interviews with relatives of those taken captive to Gaza as hostages plays into the hands of the Hamas strategists: it places enormous pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to proceed with a land invasion of Gaza which will result in many thousands of deaths among Israeli Defense Force soldiers as well as deaths of civilians in Gaza that may be an order of magnitude higher.  The violence of an Israeli invasion may be so shocking as to justify outside Palestinian forces, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon and Arab fighters in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen to send contingents of armed men to join the battle on the side of Hamas in Gaza.
​  The Western reporting has provided a wealth of material for those who would denounce the Hamas fighters as “sub-human.” ...
..Based on the information about the military capabilities of pro-Hamas forces in the neighborhood aired on the Solovyov show last night by first quality Russian experts, it is far more likely that the United States military presence is intended for use against Hezbollah in Lebanon than against Iran.  This organization is now said to be the strongest pro-Palestinian force in the region with tens of thousands of fighters, with advanced military equipment including perhaps one hundred thousand missiles ready for use against Israel at any time...
​..One of the Russian experts who spoke at length about the situation in Israel on Sunday night was Yevgeny Satanovsky, who is a professor attached to two centers of Near East studies in Moscow. He appeared in the past on Russian television talk shows when the subject was Russian-Turkish relations but his core specialty is in fact Israeli politics and the economy. It was difficult to follow Satanovsky’s remarks in detail because he was speaking as if to academic friends over a cup of coffee and there was a lot of jargon. But his appraisal of the Israeli military’s degraded state was clear enough. The deplorable discipline within their army compounded the initial problems from the intelligence failures of Mossad. The common denominator both in intelligence and in military command was hubris, undeserved self-confidence, lulled by technological superiority over the enemy. But just as Hamas outfoxed Israeli intelligence by returning to 19th century methods of communications, couriers and face to face meetings in place of electronic means that Israel can intercept, so fairly rudimentary bulldozers were sufficient to break through the Israeli wall and a combination of firearms and drones neutralized the sensors and cameras protecting Israel from Gaza raids.
​  Said Satanovsky, the Israeli military has suffered an additional debilitating flaw, namely the succession of second quality generals who rose to the premiership of Israel over the past thirty years and the politicization of military ranks. He blamed in particular the 2005 decision by then prime minister Ariel Sharon to withdraw all Israeli presence from inside Gaza and to secure the enclave from its perimeter.
​  For those who want to know more about who Satanovsky is, he has a large entry in the Russian language edition of Wikipedia. Suffice it here to say that he calls himself an atheist as well as a “Russian Jew." ...
..Russia has and needs excellent relations with the Arab world. Fifteen per cent of the Russian population is Muslim, with their cultural and religious center in Kazan, some 860 km southeast of Moscow, in a wealthy oil-producing region.  Chechnya is also a Muslim center in the Russian Federation and its leader Ramzan Kadyrov is well known in the Middle East. More to the point, Russia is a highly valuable partner of Saudi Arabia in Opec+...
..The official position with respect to the war now raging between Israel and Hamas was stated yesterday on television by President Putin: it can be solved only with implementation of the UN resolution on creation of a fully sovereign Palestine state, i.e. the “two state solution” that has been so long discussed but never brought to fruition.  However, what will follow the creation of such a state is equally important and remains terra incognita:  which world powers will guarantee the security of these two states?

​  Israel Actively Fighting A Secondary Front On Northern Border With Hezbollah: IDF
​  Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus has confirmed Wednesday Israel fired rockets into southern Lebanon for at least a second straight day, striking Hezbollah positions after the Iran-backed group struck Israeli soldiers with anti-tank missiles fired from across the border.
​  Bloomberg has also confirmed in a note, "Israel said an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon hit one of its military posts near the border, news that saw investors seek haven assets like US Treasuries." This as an Israeli ground invasion into the Gaza Strip, which is sure to be a bloody campaign, appears imminent after PM Netanyahu told Biden in a Tuesday phone call, "We have to go in. We can’t negotiate now."
​  Netanyahu also previously vowed in public statements that "what we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations."

​  The silence from the Kremlin reveals how thoroughly the Israelis have burned their bridges to President Vladimir Putin, and how far, if silently, the Russian President has moved to the side of the General Staff in their assessment of Israel as hostile – on the enemy front with the Ukraine, the US and NATO. Putin’s pro-semitism, on display in his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for several years,   is now impossible in public, also in private...
..“We are witnessing a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East,” Putin said in his public welcome for Iraq’s prime minister, Muhammed Shia al-Sudani, at the Kremlin on Tuesday morning. “I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the United States’ failed policy in the Middle East, which tried to monopolise the settlement process, but, unfortunately, was not concerned with finding compromises acceptable to both sides, but, on the contrary, put forward its own ideas about how this should be done and put pressure on both sides, truly both — first on one, then on the other. But each time without considering the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people, bearing in mind, first of all, the need to implement the decision of the UN Security Council on the creation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state.”...
​..Erdogan’s press release was more revealing. He and Putin had “touched upon what initiatives can be taken to meet humanitarian needs in the region, as the Turkish president told Putin that targeting civilian settlements is worrying and Türkiye does not welcome such move.”   Erdogan’s twitter announcement adds: “President Erdoğan and President Putin of Russia also exchanged views on potential initiatives to meet humanitarian needs in the region.”  
​  This is a hint that Erdogan and Putin are contemplating a Turkish ship convoy of aid to Gaza, protected from Israeli attack by the Russian Navy from its Tartous base on the Syrian coast, and by the Russian Air Force from Hmeimim. This humanitarian operation by sea would aim at breaking the blockade of the coast by the Israelis, and running the gauntlet of the USS Gerald Ford and its squadron further offshore.  If this operation, a reminder of the Gaza Flotilla of 2010,   is in planning now – the open signals are warning Washington and the US Navy to expect it – then the confrontation, and the risk to the US and Israel of strategic defeat at sea, are unprecedented.​..
  An alternative Egyptian option is a naval convoy. If this will be coordinated through the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry with an Erdogan-Putin plan of a Turkish convoy sailing from the north, the escalation to regional and superpower level will have materialised before the Israeli invasion of Gaza can preempt it.
  The Russian Defense Ministry has not been silent towards Israel in the past. Since the ambush by the Israel Air Force of the Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft, and the killing of its 15-man crew in September 2018, the General Staff has said it has been reserving its moves against the Israelis while identifying them as the enemy. ..
..Vzglyad, the Moscow platform for Russian military and security thinking, editorialised on April 17, 2023, that in siding with the Ukraine during the Special Military Operation, the Israeli government had become Russia’s adversary: “The time has come to take a new position on the Palestinian issue. To take the celebration of Al-Quds Day to a new level, as well as to take a more pro-Palestinian position in the Middle East conflict. To stand on the side of those who help Russia within the framework of their own interests (Iran, Saudi Arabia) against those who help our enemies. And thereby to send a very clear signal to the world – a signal that Russia will treat its partners exactly as they treat it. To help supporters – and not to act in the interests of opponents.”  ​  The creation of a humanitarian corridor was explicitly mentioned in the Foreign Ministry briefing on Tuesday.   “Tensions are rising in the West Bank of the Jordan River. There are high risks of the conflict spreading to the area of the Lebanese-Israeli border and drawing new parties into it. A large-scale humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes. The main thing now is to cease fire and stop the bloodshed.​..
..“Those who were previously perceived as peasants in woven slippers, capable at best of blowing up a bus stop, destroyed one of the myths about the state of Israel in a few hours,” Yevgeny Krutikov concluded ...
​..In a personal Telegram post, Krutikov spelled out the consensus of Russian military staff thinking at present: “1. The IDF and the Mossad were completely unprepared. There is no primary protection system, the garrisons of the border posts were fast asleep on Saturday on the  [Simchat Torah religious] holiday. The Arabs on foot, slowly, reached the unguarded positions of the Jews. The very idea of these posts was nonsense. 2. They don’t know what drones, air defence systems and all of this are at all. The Iron Dome is a fiction. They’ve been living in some kind of fantasy world for the last few years.3. Everything about Israel is a myth. There is no such defence system, there is no such intelligence. Their PR is solid. 4. Either the Arabs were trained in a special way, or they somehow unexpectedly evolved into a new form of life. The operation was planned for at least a year, taking into account all the new trends…5.  A huge amount of weapons from the Arabs could not fall from the sky. How did it get there? again, we convey our warmest greetings to the Israeli mother of  intelligence. 6. Tactical training is completely absent. As well as the vaunted patriotism. 7. Exceptional cruelty is a sign not only of this region. God is dead, including the Jewish God. 8. Where else will catch fire?”...
​..Late on Tuesday, US time, a NATO veteran of the Afghan war cast doubt on what the Israeli offensive will be able to achieve in Gaza.
​  “The Israelis don’t have the staying power to dig through, let alone occupy, Fort Gaza. Now, thanks to the bombing, they’ve turned it into a giant improved defence complex. It’s sure to be laced with tunnels and other underground workings well-stocked with food, water, medical supplies, weapons, ammunition, etc. We can bet those workings crisscross the border with Egypt. We can also bet that, no matter how nervous General Sisi [President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, right], there is certainly Egyptian support where it counts now.”
​  “The Israelis are said to be mobilising 300,000 reservists. How long can such a mobilisation last before it tells on the country’s economy? The US, after nearly exhausting its arms stocks, and a great deal of treasure, on the war against Russia via the Ukraine, has little to show for it. How will ‘giving Israel all it needs’ to slog through the ruins of the Gazan death trap work out any better?”
​  “All of this goes without counting what the Russians, Turks, Iranians, Lebanese in the form of Hezbollah, and others, may do. If the Russians launch a blockade-busting run with the Turks, will the Americans and Israelis risk a nuclear exchange trying to stop them?”
[*] Late on Tuesday evening in Moscow, the Israeli ambassador to Russia, Alexander Ben Zvi,  was admitted on his request to an interview with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov at the latter’s reception room at the ministry. The Russian communiqué indicates the Israeli official was warned the proposed  IDF plan to destroy Gaza, occupy the territory,  and cleanse it of “human animals”  -- was “fraught…with the most devastating consequences for the humanitarian situation in the region.” ... It is necessary, of course, to analyze things thoroughly. What is needed? How should it be done? I cannot rule out that it will not happen, either. It is possible that it will happen. I don't know, it is to be decided at the army level.”  He then told a meeting with Moscow Jews that Israel is not targeting all the Palestinians of Gaza: “this war will continue as long as Hamas exists as a terrorist organization, and we will have to pay with more and more casualties. In order to prevent this, we need to destroy all these terrorist cells of Hamas.”  

Saudi Arabia expresses ‘unwavering’ support for Palestine

​There are no more Ukrainian advances, only heavy Russian artillery, rocket and glide-bomb bombardment, followed by careful Russian advances across fall mud.
The Russians Were Entrenched On the Northern Flank At Avdiivka. Military Summary For 2023.10.11

​False-flaggy? What happened to the pipeline and fiber-optic communications cables? Whodunnit? 
These are shared assets between NATO member countries.
NATO Secretary General Threatens 'Response' If Finland Pipeline Was Sabotaged

​  Paul Craig Roberts: The United States is on the verge of becoming a tyranny
​  US foreign policy is controlled by Neoconservatives. Their policy is to prevent the rise of other countries that could serve as obstacles to US unilateralism. The policy is unrealistic, but the neoconservatives have had control of US foreign policy since President George W. Bush, that is, for the entirety of the 21st century. Donald Trump became a marked man when he said that he intended to give the country back to the people and to normalize relations with Russia. He offended the Ruling Elites by challenging their power, and he offended the neoconservatives and powerful military/security complex by threatening to take away from them the Russian enemy that sustains them.
​  The Republicans support aid for Ukraine because they believe that it is patriots’ duty to support the country in war and because they receive large campaign contributions from the military/security complex that profits from war.
​  The spending issues are likely on hold until a new Speaker is agreed upon. This is the opportunity for Russia to use sufficient force to end the conflict while Washington is paralyzed.

​RFK Jr's main disservice to Americans is his unwavering support for Israeli genocide and colonialism (IMHO).
Brutal: RFK Jr’s Own Siblings “Denounce” Him And Endorse Biden​ , Claim Kennedy is “dangerous to our country”

​  EU issues ultimatum to Elon Musk
​  “Following the terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel, we have indications that your platform is being used to disseminate illegal content and disinformation in the EU,” he said, adding that when X receives “notices of illegal content,” it must “be timely, diligent and objective in taking action and removing the relevant content.”
​  While Breton offered no examples of “violent and terrorist content” making the rounds on the platform, he went on to state that “public media and civil society organizations” had reported numerous cases of “fake and manipulated images,” including “repurposed” photos from unrelated conflicts and “footage that actually originated from video games.”
​  The official said he expected a “prompt, accurate and complete response” from Musk’s team within 24 hours, and warned that “penalties can be imposed” if EU authorities find that X is not complying with the bloc’s primary internet regulation, the Digital Services Act (DSA).
​  Musk later reacted to the letter in a social media post, asking Breton to “list the violations you allude to on X, so that the public can see them.” He added that “Our policy is that everything is open source and transparent, an approach that I know the EU supports.”
​  Breton declined to cite any particular cases of misinformation, instead stating that Musk is “well aware of your users’ – and authorities’ – reports on fake content and glorification of violence.”

​   Domestic American leftist political alliances are strained (Marxists praying to God is a smug joke, I think.)
​  After celebrating the Hamas paraglider massacre at a rave in Israel which killed more than 260 people, BLM Chicago has deleted their tweet, and said that they had "sent out msgs that we aren’t proud of."
​  "We stand with Palestine & the people who will do what they must to live free,"
the statement continues.
​  The Marxist organization then tweeted that they were praying for God to "please unharden Israels heart & help them to stop bombing children & taking over peoples homes & building fences."

Washington moving ‘illegal’ bioresearch operations to Africa – Moscow

Bill Gates Investing $40 Million For mRNA Vaccine Development In Africa

​  Charles found this medical paper confirming tea benefits for post-Delta COVID strains. I drank green tea daily at work until I was fired 2 years ago, and never caught COVID until late December 2021, after I had not been drinking it for 2 months. Japan did remarkably well with COVID, as you may recall.
Effects of tea, catechins and catechin derivatives on Omicron subvariants of SARS-CoV-2

​Seeking Better Nature (took this picture of Jenny with deer-neglected basil in recovering garden)

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