Preppers,
The obvious bears re-stating. Private and corporate debt is double sovereign debt, much of it in unproducted, non-bank shadow-banking. Entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security multiply government financial liabilities. Debts can't be paid-off, and in-aggregate they can only be fully serviced by further borrowing. Our kids and grandkids won't be able to support us, investors, the government and the military.
That means that there must eventually be massive default, which will destroy systemic-trust in all investments. It awaits a trigger. Future payments on investment will not be assumed, so immediate trade of commodities, services and products will be preferred by any entities which have financial capital (gold?) or commodities to trade. It will probably take over a decade for some trust in some investment avenues to creep back in after the financial collapse.
Ongoing real economic production will be necessary to meet ongoing real human needs for societal survival.
This will require emergency political management, which governments will want to have in place before the emergencies cascade. War powers might suffice.
Central Banks Cannot Fix The Sovereign Debt Bubble https://www.zerohedge. Fabio Vighi explores the financial shocks of oil-production falling short of increasing economic demand for oil in the post 2005 period when "conventional oil" had peaked, and oil prices shot up until the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, followed by the "Shale Revolution" a couple of years later, with "financial innovation" encouraging much investment which could be temporarily serviced, but never paid off.
This parallels what is happening with the Hormuz war shocking oil, fertilizer and related markets, which is forcing economic adaptations throughout the world.
I point out in the comments, and he concurs, that this overt mideast-war shock is even more like the 1973-1974 Arab Oil Embargo shock that led to alternate day fill-ups and other forms of gas rationing, and changed American perceptions of oil in the economy; changes which persist in federal laws and regulations.
From 2008 to 2026: Same Script, Different Alibi? https://fabiovighi. Gail Tverberg, Can the diesel and jet fuel shortage be solved
In this post, I will provide background information regarding the nature of the shortfall and the international conflict it is leading to. I will also share my thoughts on how, over the long term, the situation might be mitigated...
..My idea is that the economy needs to transform itself in a way that uses diesel and jet fuel (grouped together on some reports as “middle distillates”) more sparingly. At the same time, research on extracting heavy oil and bitumen at lower cost is needed. If this is done, it may be possible to use additional heavy oil to increase the supply of diesel and jet fuel.
One thing that will probably need to change is the price of diesel relative to gasoline. The price difference will likely need to be even greater than it has been in the recent past because heavy oil is inherently more difficult to extract, refine, process, and transport.
The interconnected nature of the economy means that inexpensive energy products are extremely important to the economy.One thing that will probably need to change is the price of diesel relative to gasoline. The price difference will likely need to be even greater than it has been in the recent past because heavy oil is inherently more difficult to extract, refine, process, and transport.
Energy supply and the economy are a great deal more interconnected than most people realize. For example, if the price of diesel rises, the price of food also tends to rise because diesel is used in food production and transportation. Similarly, if the price of gasoline rises, the additional cost also tends to squeeze budgets. Politicians see these price increases and say to themselves, “These increases will make voters unhappy. Let’s raise interest rates and see if we can get oil prices back down.”
Higher interest rates don’t affect everyone immediately, but they particularly impact people purchasing a vehicle or a home, and businesses seeking a loan...
..But if the underlying problem is that diesel and jet fuel prices are high because of inadequate world production, what is really needed is higher oil prices, especially for the heavier crude oils that provide a disproportionate share of diesel and jet fuel.
Consumers and oil producers have two different needs for prices...
..While prices for diesel and jet fuel are higher this fall, quite a bit of the extra charges relate to extra transport and insurance costs. The high prices need to stay, and perhaps even increase, even if the immediate issues disappear, in order to incentivize greater long-term production. It is these rising prices that are likely to continue to squeeze budgets and push economies toward recession. What we call “oil” can vary quite widely from well to well. The trend over time has been toward lighter crude oils.
Most people assume that all oil is equivalent, but this is not the case. Petroleum is a mixture of hydrocarbon molecules. The lightest ones are gases are room temperature, the medium weight ones are liquids, and the heaviest ones tend to be quite viscous. Some are even solids. Some oils, especially heavy oils, have sulfur or metal inclusions. Crude oil that contains sulfur is called “sour oil.”
Heavier oils are ones that disproportionately produce diesel and jet fuel. Lighter oils tend to produce more gasoline, along with products like solvents, and the feedstocks for plastics.
In my view, a major reason why there tends to be a shortfall in diesel and jet fuel production (even apart from the current Middle East blockages) is that the type of oil needed tends to be more expensive to extract, refine, and transport than light oil... The primary issue I see is that it is hard to pass on the higher production costs of heavy and sour oils to customers.
In theory, to cover all the costs involved related to heavy and sour oils, diesel and jet fuel prices should be quite a bit higher than gasoline prices for the same volume (liter or gallon). But if this were the case, the price of food would also increase, since diesel is extensively used in food production and transportation...
..The earliest oil that was extracted tended to be “medium oil,” which tended to have a mixture of heavier and lighter molecules. As the medium oil depleted, new production tended to be lighter. In particular, US tight oil from shale is quite light. The increasing production of US tight oil from shale is adding to the Very Light layer, as well as the Gasoline layer.Most people assume that all oil is equivalent, but this is not the case. Petroleum is a mixture of hydrocarbon molecules. The lightest ones are gases are room temperature, the medium weight ones are liquids, and the heaviest ones tend to be quite viscous. Some are even solids. Some oils, especially heavy oils, have sulfur or metal inclusions. Crude oil that contains sulfur is called “sour oil.”
Heavier oils are ones that disproportionately produce diesel and jet fuel. Lighter oils tend to produce more gasoline, along with products like solvents, and the feedstocks for plastics.
In my view, a major reason why there tends to be a shortfall in diesel and jet fuel production (even apart from the current Middle East blockages) is that the type of oil needed tends to be more expensive to extract, refine, and transport than light oil... The primary issue I see is that it is hard to pass on the higher production costs of heavy and sour oils to customers.
In theory, to cover all the costs involved related to heavy and sour oils, diesel and jet fuel prices should be quite a bit higher than gasoline prices for the same volume (liter or gallon). But if this were the case, the price of food would also increase, since diesel is extensively used in food production and transportation...
The world had a diesel and jet fuel shortage long before 2026...
..Per capita consumption of diesel and jet fuel stopped growing about 2005. The year 2005 seems to be the time that the world’s output of “conventional” (easy to extract) oil reached a peak. Figure 3 also shows that per capita consumption then plateaued until about 2019. It fell 16% in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover since.....At least in part, what is happening is that recent oil prices have not been high enough for countries producing somewhat heavy, sour oil. This is especially the case for oil exporting countries that depend on oil revenue to support their economies. They need more revenue than just enough to cover the cost of extraction, plus a reasonable return for shareholders. They also need money to fund the development of make-work projects to employ their citizens and to fund subsidized imported food for their population... Tax needs are high in countries with exploding populations who need subsidized imported food. Huge make-work projects to provide employment possibilities, such as Saudi Arabia’s construction of the city Neom, add to the need for higher tax revenue. Middle Eastern oil costs may also be rising because of depletion issues, such as wells yielding relatively more water in the oil/water mixture extracted.
For oil exporters, one symptom of chronically inadequate prices for heavy/sour oil (including the need for high tax revenue) is the willingness to engage in war.If a person looks through my suggested list of heavy/sour oil producers shown on Figure 4, all the countries seem at least somewhat war-like. Even Canada tends to be war-like...
..Authorities claim that there would be plenty of heavy oil to refine if prices were to rise high enough for long enough.
The United States Geological Services provides maps of available heavy oil and bitumen deposits. Figure 6 indicates that heavy oil is widely available in North America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East...
..In my opinion, in order to access the EHOB, the prices of diesel and jet fuel need to rise to a high level over the long term; the prices of gasoline and even lighter products don’t necessarily need to rise. If the prices of diesel and jet fuel rise high enough, for long enough, the price signal should work its way back to oil and gas companies, suggesting that they need to make investments in the direction of adding more extraction from EHOB... What is needed are permanently higher prices for diesel and jet fuel, relative to the price of gasoline, even if the problems with respect to the straits of Hormuz and of Bab al-Mandab, disappear...The United States Geological Services provides maps of available heavy oil and bitumen deposits. Figure 6 indicates that heavy oil is widely available in North America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East...
..The extent to which the oil that is heavy and often sour can be ramped up in the future remains to be seen. Extraction techniques have gradually been improving, and I would expect that they can continue to improve. But the cost of extraction and processing will likely remain somewhat high because of all the energy-intensive steps that are needed to provide diesel and jet fuel.
I expect that society itself will need to change in order to make use of this higher-cost oil. These are a few ideas I have:
(a) Oil exporting countries will need to change in ways that reduce their need for tax revenue. This is an issue especially in the Middle East, which has a huge population, in a hot, dry climate. The population will likely need to fall (for example, many migrants and guest workers may need to move back to their country of origin), and make-work projects will need to be discontinued.
(b) Another issue is that total diesel and jet fuel usage will likely need to be reduced because it is likely to take several years before production of heavy oil can be ramped up. Society will need to be reorganized in a way that uses less diesel and jet fuel. One idea would be to shorten supply chains whenever possible...
..(c) I expect that if such a change can be made, economies will need to gradually change in ways that are hard for us to understand now. The focus may need to be on essentials, including food and clothing. Governments may need to be smaller and provide fewer services. Communities may need to be smaller and more walkable. The total population may need to be lower...I expect that society itself will need to change in order to make use of this higher-cost oil. These are a few ideas I have:
(a) Oil exporting countries will need to change in ways that reduce their need for tax revenue. This is an issue especially in the Middle East, which has a huge population, in a hot, dry climate. The population will likely need to fall (for example, many migrants and guest workers may need to move back to their country of origin), and make-work projects will need to be discontinued.
(b) Another issue is that total diesel and jet fuel usage will likely need to be reduced because it is likely to take several years before production of heavy oil can be ramped up. Society will need to be reorganized in a way that uses less diesel and jet fuel. One idea would be to shorten supply chains whenever possible...
..We cannot yet imagine what all the changes will look like. In some ways they may resemble a recession... https://gailtverberg.
Michael Hudson compares this moment to the industrial revolution and prescribes the "American" or nationalist-system of political economy:
A Clean Slate – How the Oil War’s Aftermath Will Transform the World Economic Order The power elites of the U.S.-centered bloc will try to preserve their financial wealth by maintaining the rentier finance capitalism that has polarized economies increasingly in their favor since the 1970s. But the internal political and ultimately financial strains of doing this will lead to local popular resistance, especially as the growing prosperity of the Asia-centered bloc attracts Western industrial and commercial interests seeking to participate in its economic success.
At some point the Western economies may face a policy crisis much like that which spurred the reforms of industrial capitalism in the early 19th century, headed by the industrial class’s opposition to rentier income as not “real” wealth but a faux wealth overhead of real estate and other property claims, monopoly privileges and financial claims for payment (what 19th-century economists called “fictitious’ or “fictive” capital). In this scenario a revival of classical political economy would take place to redefine the character of what actually constitutes a “product,” GDP and real wealth.
The new economic order provides an opportunity for today’s European and other post-industrial economies, including even that of the United States, to recover from their long detour into finance capitalism by resuming what seemed to 19th-century observers to be a natural evolution into a socialist mixed economy. They would return to the path of the industrial capitalism that achieved such great success in organizing natural monopolies as public utilities to provide basic needs at subsidized prices instead of being privatized to yield monopoly rents. And this time, Europe’s former colonial dependencies not locked into the U.S.-centered neoliberal order would pursue the same industrial strategy to build self-sustaining growing economies with more widespread prosperity.
Economies in the new order would treat their money creation and the financial system of credit allocation as the key infrastructure monopoly to be socialized so as to steer it in the public interest. Governments will create money in the same way that today’s economies do through their central banks. National governments do not need to borrow from domestic or foreign creditors or even to levy taxes to finance their budget deficits. They can simply create the money.12 But central banks or national treasuries under industrial capitalist or socialist governments in the new order will do what the Peoples Bank of China does: They will create money for the purpose of financing new tangible investment and productivity and for other socially necessary purposes, not to finance the purchase of, or speculation in, real estate, industrial assets and financial securities already in place. This would resume the practice of Europe’s most advanced industrial economies of the late 19th century, above all Germany, which steered their banking systems to finance tangible investment in new means of production and distribution, not speculation such as characterized British merchant banking and still characterizes today’s Western banking systems. Finance and banking in the new economic order would thus be socialized and industrialized to fund productive investment.
And while national governments can create their own money to finance such investment without levying taxes, there remains a strong logic for them to follow the most important guideline of the classical economists: namely, to tax the land rents of homes and commercial real estate, as well as the natural resource rents from agriculture to mining and oil, forests and other parts of the traditional public domain. Such taxation will save the economy from enriching a rent-extracting class and minimize the cost of production. This was the dream of the classical economists. They aimed at limiting industrial capitalism’s cost of production to the socially necessary cost of living and doing business, without the burden of economic rent. Such rent was deemed unnecessary and was to be either taxed away or avoided by making natural monopolies public infrastructure so as to prevent monopoly rents from being charged in the first place. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
At some point the Western economies may face a policy crisis much like that which spurred the reforms of industrial capitalism in the early 19th century, headed by the industrial class’s opposition to rentier income as not “real” wealth but a faux wealth overhead of real estate and other property claims, monopoly privileges and financial claims for payment (what 19th-century economists called “fictitious’ or “fictive” capital). In this scenario a revival of classical political economy would take place to redefine the character of what actually constitutes a “product,” GDP and real wealth.
The new economic order provides an opportunity for today’s European and other post-industrial economies, including even that of the United States, to recover from their long detour into finance capitalism by resuming what seemed to 19th-century observers to be a natural evolution into a socialist mixed economy. They would return to the path of the industrial capitalism that achieved such great success in organizing natural monopolies as public utilities to provide basic needs at subsidized prices instead of being privatized to yield monopoly rents. And this time, Europe’s former colonial dependencies not locked into the U.S.-centered neoliberal order would pursue the same industrial strategy to build self-sustaining growing economies with more widespread prosperity.
Economies in the new order would treat their money creation and the financial system of credit allocation as the key infrastructure monopoly to be socialized so as to steer it in the public interest. Governments will create money in the same way that today’s economies do through their central banks. National governments do not need to borrow from domestic or foreign creditors or even to levy taxes to finance their budget deficits. They can simply create the money.12 But central banks or national treasuries under industrial capitalist or socialist governments in the new order will do what the Peoples Bank of China does: They will create money for the purpose of financing new tangible investment and productivity and for other socially necessary purposes, not to finance the purchase of, or speculation in, real estate, industrial assets and financial securities already in place. This would resume the practice of Europe’s most advanced industrial economies of the late 19th century, above all Germany, which steered their banking systems to finance tangible investment in new means of production and distribution, not speculation such as characterized British merchant banking and still characterizes today’s Western banking systems. Finance and banking in the new economic order would thus be socialized and industrialized to fund productive investment.
And while national governments can create their own money to finance such investment without levying taxes, there remains a strong logic for them to follow the most important guideline of the classical economists: namely, to tax the land rents of homes and commercial real estate, as well as the natural resource rents from agriculture to mining and oil, forests and other parts of the traditional public domain. Such taxation will save the economy from enriching a rent-extracting class and minimize the cost of production. This was the dream of the classical economists. They aimed at limiting industrial capitalism’s cost of production to the socially necessary cost of living and doing business, without the burden of economic rent. Such rent was deemed unnecessary and was to be either taxed away or avoided by making natural monopolies public infrastructure so as to prevent monopoly rents from being charged in the first place. https://www.nakedcapitalism.
Thanks Eleni. What interests animate "Israel's" aggressive, expansionist ambitions? Iran, Israel, and the Coming Global Shock: A War Designed to Break the World for One State’s Ambition
..The usual story presents the United States and Israel as two separate states bargaining with each other. That picture is incomplete. At the highest level, the same financial, political, and media elites move between Washington and Tel Aviv. They sit on the same boards, fund the same campaigns, own the same networks, and treat the two countries as parts of one strategic system. Some of these elites put American power first. Others put Israel first. The difference is one of emphasis, not of class. Policy is not made by two rival nations so much as by a shared circle that can shift resources, wars, and public narratives from one capital to the other.
The pro-Israel lobby in the United States is the most visible face of that arrangement. It funds campaigns, shapes media coverage, and keeps certain options off the table. Donald Trump is often presented as a man who follows only American interests. In practice he is caught between two forces inside the same elite world. One is the “America First” electorate that wants fewer foreign wars. The other is the money, networks, and expectations of those who favor Israel more openly. Policy toward Iran is made inside that tension. The result is a United States that can talk about restraint while still moving toward confrontation...
..Behind the maps and the missiles sits a deeper idea. Some currents in Israeli politics do not see the present conflict as a limited security problem. They see it as part of a larger historical mission. The language of Greater Israel is not only about borders on a map. It is tied to religious and messianic expectations. In that vision, great wars and disasters are not only dangers. They can be stages on the way to a promised transformation.The pro-Israel lobby in the United States is the most visible face of that arrangement. It funds campaigns, shapes media coverage, and keeps certain options off the table. Donald Trump is often presented as a man who follows only American interests. In practice he is caught between two forces inside the same elite world. One is the “America First” electorate that wants fewer foreign wars. The other is the money, networks, and expectations of those who favor Israel more openly. Policy toward Iran is made inside that tension. The result is a United States that can talk about restraint while still moving toward confrontation...
Ancient texts speak of immense battles and of a world remade through catastrophe. When those ideas enter the rooms where strategy is decided, the meaning of risk changes. A war with Iran is no longer only a gamble about missiles and oil. It becomes a possible gateway to a different age. That is why the conflict cannot be understood through military balance sheets alone...
..American power wants to slow Russia and China. Israeli strategy wants to break Iran. The same elites manage both priorities, even when they argue over which one should come first. Religious and political visions give the confrontation a meaning larger than ordinary statecraft. Energy markets, the dollar, NATO, and European societies are the terrain on which the costs would be paid. A global catastrophe of this kind would not fall equally on everyone. It would serve the country that has the most to gain from the destruction of its last major regional rival, and it would serve the shared elite that treats Israeli and American power as two instruments of the same project. https://angelogiuliano. Netanyahu gives it away: war with Iran coming before Israeli elections! Expect false flags soon!
Today (Tuesday 29th September 2026) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, speaking from the Tel Nof airbase, claimed that…
"We have indications that, ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us.
So from here, from the Air Force base, from the long arm of Israel, I am sending you a message: Don’t mess with us — not now, and not ever. Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time".… as reported by The Times of Israel, Al Mayadeen and Middle East Spectator (MES).
"We have indications that, ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us.
So from here, from the Air Force base, from the long arm of Israel, I am sending you a message: Don’t mess with us — not now, and not ever. Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time".… as reported by The Times of Israel, Al Mayadeen and Middle East Spectator (MES).
In short, Netanyahu gave away his plan to orchestrate another false-flag operation, in Israel or somewhere else, so that he can justify the resumption of the war on Iran, cancel the elections and stay in power, since he risks to lose the election and then end up in jail at the end of his corruption trial. The President of the corrupt Outlaw US Empire and Paedophile in Chief of the Epstein regime4 and anti-Christ5, Donald J. Trump may organize another one on US soil as well, so that he can postpone or even better cancel the mid-term elections and launch joint USraeli attack on Iran.
Following Bibi’s revelation, Israeli opposition Leader Yair Lapid requested an emergency security update from Netanyahu, who summoned Lapid to a limited security cabinet taking place tonight, as per The Times of Israel (1 and 2) and MES. https://geopolitiq.substack.
In some ways it is merely a symbolic move at this point, given that the US is still fully entrenched in the Middle East with bases throughout the region, so the occasion is really more a milestone for Iraq and its own national sovereignty, rather than a momentous geopolitical juncture. It evokes the end of an era, a post-9/11 political and dare I say spiritual zeitgeist that closes another in a long line of bloody chapters of American imperialism.
One can even argue that Iraq had served its purpose. One of the real reasons for the persistence of the phony “Inherent Resolve” mission was to use ISIS as a cover for waging war on Syria’s Assad. We had spoken many times about the importance that Syria held from many different strategic perspectives:
1. It was a territory necessary for Israel to be able to strategically operate against Iran, and in the future, Turkey.
2. It was important for checking Russian influence in the region, which is an ambiguous way of saying stopping Russia from shoring up and saving Iran from the deconstruction the Zio-American axis had planned for the Persian state.
3. In more obscure religious and eschatological terms, it was necessary for Israel to eventually carry out its Greater Israel lebensraum plan...
.."We have never avoided dialogue and will not do so, although the United States targeted our country three times. There is good coordination and synergy among the heads of state and everyone is seeking to resolve problems and shortcomings," Pezeshkian said.
This is also as the US naval blockade is biting, with reports suggesting Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz stands at near zero for the month of September.
Pezeshkian told the meeting that due to "restrictions at sea," the country is desperately seeking to widen import-export avenues via land with Pakistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
As for the US President, Trump has just reiterated to TIME that he may be escalating attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached. "Because by annihilating Iran, we’ve created peace in the world," he said. "With Iran, I don’t think you could ever have peace." https://www.zerohedge.com/
The Gulf war hit the oil plumbing itself. Satellite imagery shows fires at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and the UAE's Bu Hasa field, three UAE-linked tankers were hit in Hormuz's southern corridor, and Washington sent Iran's UN delegation home as the last US troops left Iraq.
A senior European official calls it "the first such warning since the Cold War" (MilitarySummary).
(NATO Chief, Mark) Rutte says he doesn't take it seriously (AlternatNews).
Iranian state media credited the Houthis (zerohedge)...
The gap is who moves first: Iran wants concessions before reopening Hormuz; Washington wants nuclear steps before granting relief (morgan_downey).
Then Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation out of New York after talks stalled, per Axios (investingLive_)...
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-09-30
Iran Operations Expose Maintenance Crisis in US Oldest Destroyer Class
The most notable was his clarification of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea cargo vessels and the inherent hypocrisy of the West’s demands for Russia to stop... Putin rightly notes the hypocrisies inherent to the West’s demands to stop strikes on Ukraine’s most sensitive economic targets, while Russia’s own economy continues to either be struck or sanctioned from the world markets. He incisively deconstructs the illusion behind the offer: a mutual ceasefire allows Ukraine to export its economic potential abroad, while Russian refineries, though they would be safe from strikes, are barred from exporting their diesel, which Russia itself has no need of because it has plenty for itself. As such, Ukraine gains an asymmetrical advantage.
Putin goes on to state the obvious: that Ukraine is a buffer state that cannot exist under its own aegis, particularly because it has already lost its statehood and sovereignty and is controlled by outside interests, and thus represents a threat to Russia.
Following Bibi’s revelation, Israeli opposition Leader Yair Lapid requested an emergency security update from Netanyahu, who summoned Lapid to a limited security cabinet taking place tonight, as per The Times of Israel (1 and 2) and MES. https://geopolitiq.substack.
Simplicius on US forces gradually withdrawing from the Mideast under fire: End of an Era and a Sordid Legacy as US Finally Leaves Iraq
One can even argue that Iraq had served its purpose. One of the real reasons for the persistence of the phony “Inherent Resolve” mission was to use ISIS as a cover for waging war on Syria’s Assad. We had spoken many times about the importance that Syria held from many different strategic perspectives:
1. It was a territory necessary for Israel to be able to strategically operate against Iran, and in the future, Turkey.
2. It was important for checking Russian influence in the region, which is an ambiguous way of saying stopping Russia from shoring up and saving Iran from the deconstruction the Zio-American axis had planned for the Persian state.
3. In more obscure religious and eschatological terms, it was necessary for Israel to eventually carry out its Greater Israel lebensraum plan...
..Now that the project to take down Assad has come to an end, “Inherent Resolve” has become a redundant pretense. Of course, a US troop presence in Iraq would have theoretical benefits for further war against Iran, but we’ve learned that putting troops in such close proximity is a death wish, particularly given that Iraq itself is crawling with pro-Iranian militias; US troops there would be in constant peril...
..For his part, Trump boastfully announced the withdrawal in what appeared to be an attempt to take political credit, when in reality the deal to withdraw by September 30, 2026 at the very latest was made by Biden and the Iraqi PM in 2024, and it was Trump who essentially “ran out the clock”.....The rest of his rant is equally mendacious, given that it was Russia that broke ISIS’s back and Trump had nothing to do with the group’s “decimation”. Likewise, he criticizes Biden for causing many Americans to be “badly wounded” in the Afghanistan withdrawal, yet doesn’t appear to share the same concern for the hundreds wounded against Iran in a war he pointlessly started for Israel. https://simplicius76. 'Iran's Deadline Expires Today': Tehran Threatens Renewed Attacks As Blockade Bites, Rial Collapses
Tehran is still apparently reviewing a Trump administration counterproposal to last week's Iranian seven day ceasefire pitch (which Trump had promptly rejected). Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had confirmed Wednesday the reception of an official US response through mediators....."We have never avoided dialogue and will not do so, although the United States targeted our country three times. There is good coordination and synergy among the heads of state and everyone is seeking to resolve problems and shortcomings," Pezeshkian said.
This is also as the US naval blockade is biting, with reports suggesting Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz stands at near zero for the month of September.
Pezeshkian told the meeting that due to "restrictions at sea," the country is desperately seeking to widen import-export avenues via land with Pakistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
As for the US President, Trump has just reiterated to TIME that he may be escalating attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached. "Because by annihilating Iran, we’ve created peace in the world," he said. "With Iran, I don’t think you could ever have peace." https://www.zerohedge.com/
Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast https://www.zerohedge.com/
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-10-02
Two things actually changed. Washington put a rough date on the next round with Iran: the WSJ says bombing resumes by end-November, with up to 10,000 more troops and a third carrier on the way, though one carrier-watcher says it is only a rotation. The global long end also kept breaking: the 10Y touched 5.34%, UK 30s went past 6%, France's CDS hit a 13-year wide, and the IMF then announced that bond markets are orderly. The rest continues from before, only sharper. The diesel squeeze now comes with a US ultimatum to Europe, Kyiv's bridges have joined the grid target list, and the Houthis are pressing Taiz while hitting Saudi infrastructure...
..Iran offers to let in nuclear inspectors if sanctions are eased (TheApeOfGoldStreet). Trump: "Either Iran signs deal, or it won't exist any longer" (TheApeOfGoldStreet). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-10-02 Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-10-01
Fuel products tightened from both ends: China suspended October fuel exports while US diesel futures squeezed to a record, and the 10Y closed its worst quarter since 1994 even though a methodology-trimmed PCE print came in cooler...
..Russia sends NATO a written nuclear warning over Kaliningrad. - Per Reuters, Moscow says it will use "the entire arsenal" if NATO tries to isolate the exclave, and raised strikes on "decision-making centers" (wartranslated, MenchOsint).A senior European official calls it "the first such warning since the Cold War" (MilitarySummary).
(NATO Chief, Mark) Rutte says he doesn't take it seriously (AlternatNews).
China stops fuel exports. - Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau "until further notice", and PetroChina cancelled October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes (Reuters via chigrl, BankerWeimar, JustDario).
The same morning, Washington reportedly asked the EU to release 120M barrels of diesel over six months (JustDario)...
..Gulf: Abqaiq and Bu Hasa burn on satellite, three UAE-linked tankers hit, Rubio expels Iran's delegation - Abqaiq is more than 1,100 km from Houthi-held territory. Smoke was visible from 07:15 UTC (war_cube via MenchOsint). More smoke was seen at North Ghawar (OSINTWarfare) and at Ain Dar, near the East-West pipeline (MenchOsint).The same morning, Washington reportedly asked the EU to release 120M barrels of diesel over six months (JustDario)...
Iranian state media credited the Houthis (zerohedge)...
..Hormuz: open or closed, depending on who you ask - IRGC spokesman Mohebbi says the strait is "closed" until it carries 125 ships and 20M bbl a day. Ships that try to pass will be targeted "or strike a mine" (FARS via Mark4XX).
Trump, the same day:
"Historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in last 3 days" and "you will see things happening very soon" (zerohedge).
"We blow them up or make a deal" (Multipolar_RPT)...
Diplomacy and US posture - Iran confirms it received the US counter-proposal (zerohedge).Trump, the same day:
"Historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in last 3 days" and "you will see things happening very soon" (zerohedge).
"We blow them up or make a deal" (Multipolar_RPT)...
The gap is who moves first: Iran wants concessions before reopening Hormuz; Washington wants nuclear steps before granting relief (morgan_downey).
Then Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation out of New York after talks stalled, per Axios (investingLive_)...
..US exit from Iraq: - CENTCOM ended Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq; its task force is now headquartered in Jordan (MenchOsint).
WSJ puts the cost at 23 years and $1.7T (WSJ).
Eight Patriot batteries were reportedly moved to Jordan (dana916)...
WSJ puts the cost at 23 years and $1.7T (WSJ).
Eight Patriot batteries were reportedly moved to Jordan (dana916)...
Diesel: China suspends October exports, US diesel futures squeeze to a record, Washington eyes Europe's tanks - Two opposite readings of China's export halt:
Some reports say it is to avoid selling into a glut (BankerWeimar).
JustDario says China can't get the crude. He argues the shortage is of crude suited to making diesel, not refining capacity (JustDario).
Prices:
US diesel futures hit a record above $224/bbl into expiry (Rory_Johnston).
The September heating oil vs WTI spread is about $124/bbl, and Russia's diesel export ban runs through October (JuneGoh_Sparta).
The diesel crack spread is near $110 (zerohedge)...
..The US keeps one form of leverage: Iraq's oil revenue sits at the NY Fed (aaronjmate)...
..Russia-Ukraine: first pylon-cutting drone warheads black out Kyiv; Ukraine's steel output stops for the first time in 100 years - The grid:
For the first time, Russia used a jet drone with a shaped-charge cutting warhead (40 kg main charge plus four strike modules) built to destroy high-voltage pylons and steel bridges (Beskrestnov via MilitarySummary).
Emergency power cuts in Kyiv and Zhytomyr, and water disruptions in parts of Kyiv (bneeditor).
Kyiv's electric transport has stopped (GhostOfIvan), and internet connectivity is falling in both regions (MilitarySummary).
Each hour of air-raid alert costs Ukraine $45M, per its economy minister (MilitarySummary).
Ukraine is about six months from shooting down jet-powered Shaheds at scale (MilitarySummary).
More than half of Ukraine's F-16s are stuck in maintenance; overhauls in Belgium take up to 40 weeks (WSJ via Thorkill65).
Industry and the people in it
Ukraine has stopped producing steel for the first time in 100 years (nexta_tv):
Zaporizhstal took 17 missiles across four attacks: 8 workers killed, 31 injured.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih suspended operations after five weeks of strikes: 5 killed.
Front line (mostly Russian MoD claims)
Russia claims Yehorivka (Zaporizhzhia), Tovstodubove (Sumy) and Shabelne (Kharkiv) (MilitarySummary, colonelhomsi).
Russia also claims Nesternoye and Rublenoye in the Kharkiv border pocket (GeromanAT).
Ukraine retook four villages around Lyman (MilitarySummary).
Russia's 4th Motor Rifle Brigade has grown into the 84th Division, operating around Kostiantynivka (WarUnitObserver, AMK_Mapping_).
NATO and money - Lithuania's PM, standing next to Rutte, said he asked for real proof that Russia is preparing something: "there is actually none" (1g0rB0hm, SprinterPress).
Russia's foreign ministry calls European arms plants supplying Ukraine "legitimate military targets" (FinancialJuice via TheApeOfGoldST).
The Pentagon's "Bergen Group" on NATO's future leaves out the UK, France and the Baltic states (POLITICO via GeromanAT).
The EU has barely started paying out its €90bn. Kyiv needs €40bn for the military plus €29bn to run the state in 2027 (Le Monde via MilitarySummary).
The Pentagon committed 99.8% of $400M in Ukraine aid the day before the fiscal year ended (MilitarySummary). https://no1sdailydigest.
Some reports say it is to avoid selling into a glut (BankerWeimar).
JustDario says China can't get the crude. He argues the shortage is of crude suited to making diesel, not refining capacity (JustDario).
Prices:
US diesel futures hit a record above $224/bbl into expiry (Rory_Johnston).
The September heating oil vs WTI spread is about $124/bbl, and Russia's diesel export ban runs through October (JuneGoh_Sparta).
The diesel crack spread is near $110 (zerohedge)...
..The US keeps one form of leverage: Iraq's oil revenue sits at the NY Fed (aaronjmate)...
..Russia-Ukraine: first pylon-cutting drone warheads black out Kyiv; Ukraine's steel output stops for the first time in 100 years - The grid:
For the first time, Russia used a jet drone with a shaped-charge cutting warhead (40 kg main charge plus four strike modules) built to destroy high-voltage pylons and steel bridges (Beskrestnov via MilitarySummary).
Emergency power cuts in Kyiv and Zhytomyr, and water disruptions in parts of Kyiv (bneeditor).
Kyiv's electric transport has stopped (GhostOfIvan), and internet connectivity is falling in both regions (MilitarySummary).
Each hour of air-raid alert costs Ukraine $45M, per its economy minister (MilitarySummary).
Ukraine is about six months from shooting down jet-powered Shaheds at scale (MilitarySummary).
More than half of Ukraine's F-16s are stuck in maintenance; overhauls in Belgium take up to 40 weeks (WSJ via Thorkill65).
Industry and the people in it
Ukraine has stopped producing steel for the first time in 100 years (nexta_tv):
Zaporizhstal took 17 missiles across four attacks: 8 workers killed, 31 injured.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih suspended operations after five weeks of strikes: 5 killed.
Front line (mostly Russian MoD claims)
Russia claims Yehorivka (Zaporizhzhia), Tovstodubove (Sumy) and Shabelne (Kharkiv) (MilitarySummary, colonelhomsi).
Russia also claims Nesternoye and Rublenoye in the Kharkiv border pocket (GeromanAT).
Ukraine retook four villages around Lyman (MilitarySummary).
Russia's 4th Motor Rifle Brigade has grown into the 84th Division, operating around Kostiantynivka (WarUnitObserver, AMK_Mapping_).
NATO and money - Lithuania's PM, standing next to Rutte, said he asked for real proof that Russia is preparing something: "there is actually none" (1g0rB0hm, SprinterPress).
Russia's foreign ministry calls European arms plants supplying Ukraine "legitimate military targets" (FinancialJuice via TheApeOfGoldST).
The Pentagon's "Bergen Group" on NATO's future leaves out the UK, France and the Baltic states (POLITICO via GeromanAT).
The EU has barely started paying out its €90bn. Kyiv needs €40bn for the military plus €29bn to run the state in 2027 (Le Monde via MilitarySummary).
The Pentagon committed 99.8% of $400M in Ukraine aid the day before the fiscal year ended (MilitarySummary). https://no1sdailydigest.
The long end of the Treasury curve hit levels last seen in 2002 on a day when oil fell and a dovish Williams took October hike odds from roughly 70% to under 50%, so bonds have stopped taking their cue from crude.
US-Iran talks stalled again, with Axios reporting Trump leans toward resuming major combat after the midterms, a Kuwaiti VLCC was hit in Hormuz, and Russia opened a strike campaign on Kyiv's power plants. Metals, copper and the AI funding loop are mostly continuation, each with one new datapoint. https://no1sdailydigest.
“The US Navy’s Arleigh Burke class destroyer fleet is facing renewed operational demands in the Middle East, as the service continues to support an ongoing offensive against Iran, raising concerns over the ability of an ageing fleet to sustain a high operational tempo while maintaining scheduled maintenance,” Military Watch Magazine notes.
The US Navy is struggling to maintain its surface fleet on schedule, with overhauls of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers taking 26% longer than planned and requiring 8% more labor.
“The average age of the Arleigh Burke-class fleet increased from approximately 10 years in 2011 to 20 years in 2024. Although newer Flight IIA and Flight III destroyers are entering service, a substantial proportion of the fleet consists of older vessels that require increasingly extensive maintenance to sustain in service,” the magazine added. https://www.globalresearch.
The US Navy is struggling to maintain its surface fleet on schedule, with overhauls of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers taking 26% longer than planned and requiring 8% more labor.
“The average age of the Arleigh Burke-class fleet increased from approximately 10 years in 2011 to 20 years in 2024. Although newer Flight IIA and Flight III destroyers are entering service, a substantial proportion of the fleet consists of older vessels that require increasingly extensive maintenance to sustain in service,” the magazine added. https://www.globalresearch.
This is a useful tool to debilitate Ukraine by cutting off regional power in a way that can be readily repaired after Ukraine surrenders. Russia attacks Ukraine with jet-powered drone carrying warhead capable of destroying high-voltage power lines https://gwaramedia.com/en/
Simplicius has electrical tower strike videos, Russia Debuts New Drone Tech for Start of Annual Winter De-Energization Drive Against Kiev
Putin hosted the annual Valdai International Discussion Club, during which he made many interesting statements during the plenary session with international journalists. The most notable was his clarification of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea cargo vessels and the inherent hypocrisy of the West’s demands for Russia to stop... Putin rightly notes the hypocrisies inherent to the West’s demands to stop strikes on Ukraine’s most sensitive economic targets, while Russia’s own economy continues to either be struck or sanctioned from the world markets. He incisively deconstructs the illusion behind the offer: a mutual ceasefire allows Ukraine to export its economic potential abroad, while Russian refineries, though they would be safe from strikes, are barred from exporting their diesel, which Russia itself has no need of because it has plenty for itself. As such, Ukraine gains an asymmetrical advantage.
Putin goes on to state the obvious: that Ukraine is a buffer state that cannot exist under its own aegis, particularly because it has already lost its statehood and sovereignty and is controlled by outside interests, and thus represents a threat to Russia.
When asked if Russia should break apart the EU, Putin says there is no need as the corrupt alliance will collapse on its own from self-destructive policies...
..The Ukrainian side reports that Russia has begun using a new version of the “Geran-4” drone, featuring “whiskers” in the front of the fuselage. One such drone allegedly arrived during the recent attacks on Kyiv. According to the receiving party, this could be a contact-initiated detonator. It is not specified whether this is related to the fact that the receiving party now has the opportunity to study some of the downed drones, and they are therefore required to explode upon contact with the surface, or if there is another reason.
Ukraine’s top radioelectronics expert Serhiy Flash writes:
Bad news. Today, for the first time, the enemy used a special cumulative-cutting warhead (CCWH) on a reactive unmanned aerial vehicle.
This type of warhead was specifically designed to destroy high-voltage pylons and iron bridge structures. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-debuts-new-drone-tech-for
The turning point was Ukraine’s drone campaign on election day. Putin said more than 1,600 drones entered the Moscow area that night, with strikes on polling stations, including one in a school he said was virtually destroyed. The chair of a territorial election commission was killed when her home was hit. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin called the raid unprecedented. According to RT, two civilians were killed in the suburbs and an oil refinery was damaged. Whatever one makes of Russian accounts of the damage, the political effect in Moscow was plain...
A Lone Voice Of Sanity On NATO's Eastern Flank Emerges
Ukraine is the only country in the world where conscripts are sent to the front with their hands handcuffed. Look at how eager they are to die fighting for warlord Zelensky and the West... https://x.com/DA_Stockman/
Ukraine’s top radioelectronics expert Serhiy Flash writes:
Bad news. Today, for the first time, the enemy used a special cumulative-cutting warhead (CCWH) on a reactive unmanned aerial vehicle.
This type of warhead was specifically designed to destroy high-voltage pylons and iron bridge structures. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-debuts-new-drone-tech-for
Gilbert Doctorow explains the consequences of Putin's promise to Yeltsin to spare the Yeltsin oligarchic "family": The rotten underbelly of the Putin regime: obligations to Yeltsin and the handover of power that will not go away https://gilbertdoctorow.
Larry Johnson, Moscow Closes the Door: How Putin and Lavrov Hardened Russia’s Line on Ukraine in Ten Days
In mid-September, the Kremlin was signaling that negotiations could resume. Putin had said the trilateral talks with the United States and Ukraine would be unlikely before the State Duma elections, but that Russia would be ready to resume contacts after them. The elections ended on September 20. Within a week, both Putin and Lavrov had shifted from conditional openness to a set of positions that make a negotiated end to the war harder to reach than at any point this year.The turning point was Ukraine’s drone campaign on election day. Putin said more than 1,600 drones entered the Moscow area that night, with strikes on polling stations, including one in a school he said was virtually destroyed. The chair of a territorial election commission was killed when her home was hit. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin called the raid unprecedented. According to RT, two civilians were killed in the suburbs and an oil refinery was damaged. Whatever one makes of Russian accounts of the damage, the political effect in Moscow was plain...
..Taken together, the statements of the past ten days set out a harder Russian position:
Talks resume only on Moscow’s timetable and on its judgment of its own interests, not as the promised follow-up to the elections.
No ceasefire of any kind during negotiations, including the unconditional ceasefire backed by more than 50 countries.
Ukraine’s requests for partial truces are treated as evidence that Russian pressure is working, not as openings.
Europe is cast as the aggressor, excluded as a partner, and blamed for the loss of Ukraine’s territory.
Military pressure rising on every axis: a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s ports, intensified strikes on Kyiv’s infrastructure, and assaults along the entire front.
The direction is clear. In mid-September, Moscow was talking about when negotiations would resume. By September 26, it was talking about whether it wanted them at all, and on what terms. https://sonar21.com/moscow-
Talks resume only on Moscow’s timetable and on its judgment of its own interests, not as the promised follow-up to the elections.
No ceasefire of any kind during negotiations, including the unconditional ceasefire backed by more than 50 countries.
Ukraine’s requests for partial truces are treated as evidence that Russian pressure is working, not as openings.
Europe is cast as the aggressor, excluded as a partner, and blamed for the loss of Ukraine’s territory.
Military pressure rising on every axis: a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s ports, intensified strikes on Kyiv’s infrastructure, and assaults along the entire front.
The direction is clear. In mid-September, Moscow was talking about when negotiations would resume. By September 26, it was talking about whether it wanted them at all, and on what terms. https://sonar21.com/moscow-
"We always need to think about the worst-case scenario," Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has told a European defense summit while warning that seeking to impose total defeat on Russia poses real risks of nuclear war.
Radev instead urged robust diplomacy to avert such a catastrophe. "The problem is that no one is raising the question about nuclear risk. Does it exist? Maybe not, I don't know, but this is a risk," he stated in remarks published Wednesday.
"I don't think the war in Ukraine will end in a nuclear war but we have to be prepared for the risk." https://www.zerohedge.com/
Radev instead urged robust diplomacy to avert such a catastrophe. "The problem is that no one is raising the question about nuclear risk. Does it exist? Maybe not, I don't know, but this is a risk," he stated in remarks published Wednesday.
"I don't think the war in Ukraine will end in a nuclear war but we have to be prepared for the risk." https://www.zerohedge.com/
Ukraine is the only country in the world where conscripts are sent to the front with their hands handcuffed. Look at how eager they are to die fighting for warlord Zelensky and the West... https://x.com/DA_Stockman/
US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle has set off a firestorm of diplomatic controversy over unusually blunt remarks centered on Greece's government and US policy. It also raised questions of US covert 'influence operations' and regime change activities.
The words issued by the former Fox News host were picked up by The Wall Street Journal, which described that the alleged remark was made during a March dinner in Athens. Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou was said to be at the gathering, which quickly became tense.
A discussion ensued over the impending collapse of Romania's government. Guilfoyle pronounced that the United States had a role in influencing the crisis. She reportedly then said, "We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here."The words issued by the former Fox News host were picked up by The Wall Street Journal, which described that the alleged remark was made during a March dinner in Athens. Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou was said to be at the gathering, which quickly became tense.
Her indicating that it could be done "here" was of course a reference to Greece itself, and the account is presented as her boasting to a top government minister's face that Washington can change governments whenever it wants...
..Guilfoyle as the Trump-appointed top US envoy to Athens has also of late come under scrutiny for pushing US energy sales across Southeastern Europe, especially focused on American liquefied natural gas...
..The alleged March remarks have also naturally sparked tensions between the US and Romania. A State Department statement issued in the wake of the reporting reads: "The United States values its strategic partnership with Romania, which remains strong across our shared priorities, including energy security and defense burden shifting." https://www.zerohedge.com/
John Helmer, THE MEANING OF RUSSIAN SILENCE TOWARDS XI AND TRUMP
In Moscow, a little known analyst “described the results of the Trump–Xi Jinping talks as modest… No clearly defined position was developed on such sensitive issues as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other delicate topics. The event turned out to be truly representative, but the substantive content turned out to be much more modest. Following the summit, Beijing and Washington managed to postpone direct confrontation only for a short time. Although the Chinese side is making concessions, it intends to drag out the process of stabilizing relations with the United States for years, hoping to further strengthen its position during this time.” Pussyfooting is not what the Russian intelligence agencies, the General Staff, and Putin’s Security Council are required to do.
Their assessment is that Xi is not a singularly strong decision-maker and cannot negotiate with Trump without the consensus of the Politburo behind him. That consensus sat beside Xi at the meetings with Trump – Wang Yi, heading foreign policy at the Politburo; He Lifeng, heading economic policy; and Cai Qi, heading the staff secretariat. Indian intelligence assessments and the rare Chinese analyst concur that Xi is politically weak, that “no one is in charge”, that the Chinese economy is vulnerable to US trade sanctions, and that the policy consensus on display in Washington was the Politburo’s maximum, plus Xi’s postponement. https://johnhelmer.net/the-
From September 14 (maybe passing targeting intel to Iran) A Chinese Reconnaissance Satellite Fragmented Last Week. Nobody Knows Why.
The US Space Force catalogued 43 pieces from the breakup of a Chinese reconnaissance satellite launched in March. The cause is unknown and the debris will persist for decades. https://www.jfeed.com/news- Referenced to September 13 event: Mystery Shrouds Destruction Of US Spy Satellite
..The satellite, known as USA 32, came apart on September 13 at approximately 5:13 p.m. ET, according to U.S. Space Forces-Space. Officials have not publicly determined what caused the nearly 40-year-old spacecraft to suddenly fragment. https://www.zerohedge.com/
Moon of Alabama, British Authorities Mess Up Another Scare Mongering Scheme Today the British authorities seemed to have run one of their usual scams to keep the population in line of the official scare mongering narratives. This was a bit unusual as the target of this operation was not Russia, but Iran.
ENEMY TARGETS Inside Iran’s alarming campaign of revenge as brutal regime puts UK in its crosshairs after ‘bomb plot’ at RAF base – The Sun
RAF Fairford on terror alert as nearby residents evacuated and multiple men arrested – Daily Mail
‘Iran bomb plot’ at RAF base foiled by farmer’s 999 call: Five arrested in early hours after three vans spotted near air base used by US bombers – Daily Mail
999 call, bomb squad, 5 held: UK police probe suspected RAF Fairford terror plot; Iran link eyed – Times of India
Five men arrested over RAF ‘terror bomb plot’ are all British nationals from London and aged in their 20s – as Iran ‘categorically rejects’ involvement – Daily Mail
—From the first Daily Mail story:
Police were alerted by chance after a farmer living in the nearby village of Whelford noticed three vans blocking a quiet country road surrounding the base as she drove home from a party in the early hours.
Confused, she turned her car around. As she did so, she saw ‘Middle Eastern–looking’ men in balaclavas and hooded tops scattering into the trees and across the fields towards the base.
The quick–thinking hero accelerated away and called the police at 12.45am, before messaging her local WhatsApp group, warning people to lock their doors. Police were on the scene within 15 minutes, arresting the five men minutes later. https://www.moonofalabama.
ENEMY TARGETS Inside Iran’s alarming campaign of revenge as brutal regime puts UK in its crosshairs after ‘bomb plot’ at RAF base – The Sun
RAF Fairford on terror alert as nearby residents evacuated and multiple men arrested – Daily Mail
‘Iran bomb plot’ at RAF base foiled by farmer’s 999 call: Five arrested in early hours after three vans spotted near air base used by US bombers – Daily Mail
999 call, bomb squad, 5 held: UK police probe suspected RAF Fairford terror plot; Iran link eyed – Times of India
Five men arrested over RAF ‘terror bomb plot’ are all British nationals from London and aged in their 20s – as Iran ‘categorically rejects’ involvement – Daily Mail
—From the first Daily Mail story:
Police were alerted by chance after a farmer living in the nearby village of Whelford noticed three vans blocking a quiet country road surrounding the base as she drove home from a party in the early hours.
Confused, she turned her car around. As she did so, she saw ‘Middle Eastern–looking’ men in balaclavas and hooded tops scattering into the trees and across the fields towards the base.
The quick–thinking hero accelerated away and called the police at 12.45am, before messaging her local WhatsApp group, warning people to lock their doors. Police were on the scene within 15 minutes, arresting the five men minutes later. https://www.moonofalabama.
Reuters Says Possible Iranian-Linked Motive Likely
Trump Says Suspects "Looking to do Big Damage" Against Airbase https://www.zerohedge.com/
The poll was conducted last week, ahead of Emmanuel Macron's speech on rising fuel prices. The French president's approval rating has fallen to a historic low of just 18 percent. https://www.zerohedge.com/
"What began as protests demanding better conditions for students and teachers has devolved into violence at dozens of locations, concentrated at schools with large immigrant populations," Remix wrote in a report earlier.
Visegrád 24 wrote on X, "Young second and third-generation migrants have attacked firemen in Marseille, stealing their fire truck and setting it on fire."...
..The regional Marseille government said an "unacceptable line" had been crossed at Victor Hugo High School, where "the principal, the deputy principal, the general secretary and the team leader were assaulted and doused with gasoline," according to the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region, cited by BFMTV. https://www.zerohedge.com/Visegrád 24 wrote on X, "Young second and third-generation migrants have attacked firemen in Marseille, stealing their fire truck and setting it on fire."...
Despite RN’s latest gains, the Senate will remain controlled by the conservative Republicans and their centrist allies...
..The prospect of Le Pen replacing Macron raised particular concerns among the Western backers of Ukraine. The Telegraph reported in August that officials fear her election could disrupt the French-led effort to coordinate military and financial support for Kiev, as well as plans to deploy Western troops there after a ceasefire.
RN has long challenged Macron’s approach to the Ukraine conflict, opposing open-ended funding for Kiev and steps it says risk a direct confrontation with Russia. Le Pen has repeatedly stressed that the conflict needs a diplomatic solution and has called for normalizing relations with Moscow. https://web.archive.org/web/
RN has long challenged Macron’s approach to the Ukraine conflict, opposing open-ended funding for Kiev and steps it says risk a direct confrontation with Russia. Le Pen has repeatedly stressed that the conflict needs a diplomatic solution and has called for normalizing relations with Moscow. https://web.archive.org/web/
Sundance, New York Times Latest Example of AI Doom Fear is Silly
Spider crawling is essentially AI. A technology tool to search databases and identify results based on parameters established by the individual who launched the search. However, now in order to push a scare narrative around the hot topic of “AI” the spider crawling is much more in depth and advanced.
Now, instead of just searching the internet, advanced AI can find information and answer questions based on lengthy attributes described by the AI user. AI can now go into proprietary databases and retrieve information to answer complex and complicated questions (instructions)...
..The entire article is nothing more than taking something that is easily understood and adding jargon to make it sound complicated. The word “meddling” is used to describe the AI process of trying to get past the gate. When there were individual people doing this, we called it “hacking” now the process is automated via instructions to the software search.
If you were using an AI tool and asked the question: ‘How many people with basket-weaving degrees work inside the Dept of Commerce’? The AI Bot would likely look through work records in the Dept of Commerce, review LinkedIn profiles, scour college records and other online data, while trying to assemble an answer.
It’s not complicated.
AI is being used to answer complicated questions that would normally takes days, weeks or months to figure out, but understanding what the AI is doing is not complicated.
[…] None of the incidents were breaches, OpenAI said, but were examples of its technology’s behaving in unexpected and concerning ways. The company recently discovered the occurrences while conducting a review of hacks carried out by its technology, including an attack on an Australian government website in June and on the A.I. start-up Hugging Face in July.
The revelation of the U.S. government website incidents add to the growing number of situations when A.I. agents from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google have misbehaved and hacked or tried to breach companies, universities and government organizations. In some cases, the A.I. attacks were successful; the technology failed in other instances. In all the cases, the makers of the technology did not learn what their A.I. had been up to until afterward. (more)
In this example the AI is doing what the AI user tells the AI bot to accomplish. If the AI user puts restrictions around the IA bot, the AI remains confined in its effort. Nothing AI does is ‘rogue’ it is all based on instructions. The AI operations must be precise with AI about what they ask for and should not give it access to a door they don’t want opened. https://
AI is being used to answer complicated questions that would normally takes days, weeks or months to figure out, but understanding what the AI is doing is not complicated.
[…] None of the incidents were breaches, OpenAI said, but were examples of its technology’s behaving in unexpected and concerning ways. The company recently discovered the occurrences while conducting a review of hacks carried out by its technology, including an attack on an Australian government website in June and on the A.I. start-up Hugging Face in July.
The revelation of the U.S. government website incidents add to the growing number of situations when A.I. agents from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google have misbehaved and hacked or tried to breach companies, universities and government organizations. In some cases, the A.I. attacks were successful; the technology failed in other instances. In all the cases, the makers of the technology did not learn what their A.I. had been up to until afterward. (more)
In this example the AI is doing what the AI user tells the AI bot to accomplish. If the AI user puts restrictions around the IA bot, the AI remains confined in its effort. Nothing AI does is ‘rogue’ it is all based on instructions. The AI operations must be precise with AI about what they ask for and should not give it access to a door they don’t want opened. https://
I understand more about the emergency-risks the AI-CEOs are worried about since reading this: Moon of Alabama, ‘Rogue’ AI Agents Will Kill Billions?
It was a rainy day when I met Bill Gates. That was in late 1999 at a Microsoft event in Seattle. We had a short chat about an aquisition. My impression was that he was a smart guy, but not very intelligent.
It was a rainy day when I met Bill Gates. That was in late 1999 at a Microsoft event in Seattle. We had a short chat about an aquisition. My impression was that he was a smart guy, but not very intelligent.
Later that day he gave a talk. His PowerPoint presentation promptly blue-screened. He was embarrassed and helpless.
Gates knows a bit or two about how to profit from monopolizing software. Seen in that light his recent demand for regulation by claiming that AI could ’cause a billion deaths’ may even make sense...
..Killing a billion people is bad. It is prohibited for good reasons. Attempts to do so are criminal. People who try will go to jail.Gates knows a bit or two about how to profit from monopolizing software. Seen in that light his recent demand for regulation by claiming that AI could ’cause a billion deaths’ may even make sense...
To claim that AI could kill a billion people is like claiming that fire could kill a billion people. Of course it could. But no, it doesn’t.
After some unauthorized attempts to break into non-public databases and websites there has been embarrassing talk about ‘rogue AI agents‘.
There is no such thing as a ‘rogue’ AI agent. There is only deterministic software, written and launched by humans, that wraps around Large Language Models.
To understand how that works lets look inside:
An AI agent harness is the software infrastructure that wraps around a large language model (LLM) and enables it to act on tasks, not just respond to prompts. The model reasons through a problem and decides what to do next. The harness connects it to the tools, systems, memory and execution environments needed to carry out those actions.
Agent = Model + Harness
Think of the model as the “brain” that generates reasoning and decisions. The harness is everything around it that helps the agent operate safely and reliably, including:
Tools: APIs, code execution, search, databases and business applications
Memory: Prior context, user preferences and workflow history
Workspace: Files, data, environments and systems the agent can access
Guardrails: Permissions, policies, approvals and monitoring
Without a harness, a model can answer questions, but it can’t reliably run code, call APIs, access files, remember prior work or complete multi-step workflows on its own.
An AI agent, tasked with whatever, can and will only break into a website, if its harness (and the computer the ‘agent’ is running on) fails to stop it from doing so.
Whoever has programmed that harness (or miss-administrates the underlying system) is at least negligent in his duty. It is that person which is accountable for the agents misbehavior. It is that person which, where appropriate, should go to jail.
There is a very simple way for preventing AI agents from OpenAI or Anthropic from going ‘rogue’. Harshly penalize the CEOs of these companies, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei, each and every time their agents do. https://www.moonofalabama.
Sundance, Europe Asks China to Voluntarily Limit EV Exports
I was quite confused by this distinctly European approach until I had dinner with a Chinese actuary working in the auto warranty insurance industry.Then I was reminded. Europe cannot force Beijing through a trade action (tariffs, ban, EU limit etc.) because Beijing might stop selling them EV carbon credits. If the European automakers cannot purchase Chinese EV carbon credit certificates, the fines levied by Brussels against gasoline powered autos will destroy the EU auto business...
..Europe wants Beijing to voluntarily limit the number of EVs that come into Europe from China, in order to save their auto sector from complete collapse. However, Europe cannot force Beijing to limit the number of EVs that come into Europe from China, or Beijing might stop selling them carbon credit certificates that will result in fines to the EU automakers that will collapse the EU auto sector.
You would think that Europe would just get rid of the net-zero carbon regulations until they can stabilize their market and get back to a reasonable energy policy. Alas, that would mean reversing decades of climate change legislation. The preferred route is to ask Beijing to limit hurting them. https://
You would think that Europe would just get rid of the net-zero carbon regulations until they can stabilize their market and get back to a reasonable energy policy. Alas, that would mean reversing decades of climate change legislation. The preferred route is to ask Beijing to limit hurting them. https://
The law would have required large companies involved in fossil fuel extraction or crude oil refining to pay into a state fund over 25 years. Each company's share would have been based on greenhouse gas emissions attributed to its products from 2000 through 2024. New York intended to use the money for infrastructure and other projects to help communities address issues the state blames on climate change.
The Justice Department and Environmental Protection Agency sued to block the law. They argued that New York's law ran afoul of the legal doctrine of preemption, which says that federal law takes precedence if there is a conflict with state law.
The federal government said the Clean Air Act gives the EPA authority to decide whether and how to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. It said New York's law would impose its own liability on fossil fuel producers based on emissions attributed to their products worldwide.
New York argued that its law did not regulate emissions. It said the payments would compensate the state for harm from past emissions and fund projects to protect New Yorkers from problems it attributed to climate change. Castel rejected the state's argument, saying the charges effectively regulated interstate emissions. https://www.zerohedge.com/
The Justice Department and Environmental Protection Agency sued to block the law. They argued that New York's law ran afoul of the legal doctrine of preemption, which says that federal law takes precedence if there is a conflict with state law.
The federal government said the Clean Air Act gives the EPA authority to decide whether and how to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. It said New York's law would impose its own liability on fossil fuel producers based on emissions attributed to their products worldwide.
New York argued that its law did not regulate emissions. It said the payments would compensate the state for harm from past emissions and fund projects to protect New Yorkers from problems it attributed to climate change. Castel rejected the state's argument, saying the charges effectively regulated interstate emissions. https://www.zerohedge.com/
It did not "come Monday", but there is another Monday coming soon: "Coming Monday": Trump To Roll Back Costly 'Green' Rules To Drive Down Car Prices https://www.zerohedge.com/
Fauci’s own words: “This should have been a classified experiment that never should have been done in the first place.” https://www.thefocalpoints.
Meryl Nass MD, Fauci, the aerosolized Ebola monkey experiment, and the actual backstory on the vaccine, which is now US-licensed
The unexpected and unhappy result was that the vaccinated monkeys had more severe disease than the unvaccinated monkeys. It appears they suffered from an immunologic condition called Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Disease, in which the vaccinated people develop more serious pathology than the unvaccinated, usually in the lungs, after being exposed to the infection the vaccine was designed to prevent. This has been seen occasionally with other vaccines, which are then quickly taken off the market.
The DOD researchers were planning to publish their results. When Fauci found out, he had a true meltdown. He said the research should have been classified. His staff pushed back, explaining there was nothing classified about the research. They didn’t grasp that Fauci meant it should have been classified so the public would never learn the results.
Then he demanded to be told everything about the role of NIAID in the study, in a most unusual and shocking email (read it below). He was then able to partially suppress the results of the study. https://merylnass.substack.
In this article, I destroy the hypothesis that “coincidence” causes parents to BELIEVE their child’s autism was CAUSED by vaccines. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/
Steve Kirsch, These clinic intake summary charts can’t be explained if “vaccines don’t cause autism”
ChatGPT analyzed patient intake forms and had to admit that this data is consistent with “vaccines cause autism” and there is no competing explanation. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/Testifying before Senator Ron Johnson, a trauma surgeon blows the whistle on falsified death counts, deadly protocols, and the state-backed plot to restrict the civil rights of the unvaccinated people https://lionessofjudah.
A Midwestern Doctor, How Hospitals Turned on Their Patients During COVID
A Senate hearing exposed what was done to the unvaccinated inside America’s hospitals—and why the system drives out the doctors patients most need.• Federal policies paid hospitals tens of thousands of dollars per COVID admission, boosted reimbursement for ventilated patients, shielded providers from liability, and made remdesivir the standard of care, creating powerful incentives for harmful protocols.
• At a recent Senate hearing, families shared strikingly consistent tragic stories of unvaccinated patients being isolated, told they would die, denied safe repurposed drugs, given remdesivir over their objections, and pushed onto ventilators and into DNRs.
• An attorney who sued hospitals on behalf of 212 families reported that only 3 of the 72 patients who received court-ordered ivermectin died, while every one of the 140 who didn’t get it died—making suing hospitals one of the most effective treatments in history.
• Trauma surgeon James Miller testified that his hospital was never overwhelmed despite the headlines, inflated its COVID numbers, and had infectious disease doctors who seemed to know remdesivir was harmful, and he was driven out of surgery after opening a free clinic for the unvaccinated.
• Because the system steadily removes the doctors who will break a failing protocol to save a patient, trust in physicians and hospitals fell from 71.5% to 40.1% between 2020 and 2024, and it will only return if medicine becomes honest and starts offering things that work. https://www.midwesterndoctor.
Attorney Ralph Lorigo’s Sept. 28, 2026 testimony about hospital refusals to give ivermectin to dying patients should be viewed as evidence of murder or at least negligent homicide. https://www.thefocalpoints.
The lawsuit alleges Pfizer hid safety signals, misled millions about transmission, and used deceptive marketing to drive maximum COVID shot uptake. https://www.thefocalpoints.
I would like to see this assertion proven, as would John Leake, Dr. Michael Nehls: “Alzheimer’s Is Entirely Avoidable”
The German doctor and author of “The Indoctrinated Brain” speaks persuasively about how Alzheimer’s can be avoided, and he argues that some patients are suffering from lithium deficiency. https://www.thefocalpoints. Sasha Latypova, Moderna’s mFLUSIVA and SPIKEVAX violate federal labeling law (BLA). The FDA cannot waive statutory requirement for manufacturer address on the carton/vial.
The issue is not limited to mRNA or vaccines in general, many biologics in the US are missing manufacturer’s address, and can be shipped from secret [military?] facilities. https://sashalatypova. Paul Marik MD, Intensive Multimodal Ketogenic Metabolic Therapy in Glioblastoma
A new clinical trial combining fasting and a ketogenic diet with standard treatment — what it found, and what it does not yet prove https://paulmarik.substack.44% of squamous cell carcinoma lesions shrank by over 85%, while 94% of patients were able to avoid surgery. https://www.thefocalpoints.
Paul Marik MD, Pancreatic Cancer Through the Lens of the 5-Axis Metabolic Pressure Approach https://paulmarik.substack.
Climate Physicist and Siberian-forest dweller, Anastassia Makarieva, What to Preserve? Insights from Kyrgyzstan - Travel notes from a country that initiated the UN General Assembly resolution “Nature Knows No Borders”
I am a theoretical physicist working to explain how natural ecosystems stabilize an environment and climate favorable for life. The ethical and practical implication of this work is that we must preserve natural ecosystems if we want our civilization to persist, while transforming into something more meaningful than it is now...
..Our colleagues and friends at BIOM in Bishkek are doing precisely that. They are strong supporters of biotic regulation and, together with the Ministry of Natural Resources and UN programs in the country, use their expert knowledge to develop strategies for nature conservation in Kyrgyzstan and beyond...
..During this eclectic, highly emotional and picturesque trip, we were discussing biotic regulation science and the logic it provides to conservation efforts. I will briefly summarize it here...Our colleagues and friends at BIOM in Bishkek are doing precisely that. They are strong supporters of biotic regulation and, together with the Ministry of Natural Resources and UN programs in the country, use their expert knowledge to develop strategies for nature conservation in Kyrgyzstan and beyond...
The logic is as follows.
The task of keeping a favorable environment stable is extremely complex. “Complex” here means, at the very least, that this task cannot be achieved by technological means. I have discussed this elsewhere, and there are two reasons for this. First, the information fluxes processed by the biosphere to stabilize the environment are, and will always remain, beyond the capacity of our civilization. Second, even if we could handle the necessary information flow, we do not have the knowledge of what to do with it.
It follows that if natural ecosystems possess the complexity needed to stabilize the environment, then any human modification of them leads to a reduction in their regulatory potential. Therefore, conservation priority should be given to the least disturbed ecosystems. There is little point in preserving something less efficient while allowing these regulatory gems to continue disappearing.
Furthermore, after a disturbance, an ecosystem initiates a process of ecological succession, during which both the ecological community and its environment recover through a non-random sequence of species that appear and disappear one after another. Every stage of succession has its meaning in this recovery process. Species numbers may change non-linearly along the way.
If we choose to preserve particular stages of ecological succession according to species counts, for example by maximizing biodiversity at a particular stage, we interfere with this recovery process. From the biotic regulation perspective, this weakens regulation and can ultimately lead to ecosystem disintegration. We cannot stabilize a particular stage of ecological succession any more than we can stabilize a particular stage of a patient’s recovery from illness. The process should proceed unimpeded until the state of maximum recovery is reached.
This translates directly into the question of how much preserved nature should be maintained in early-, mid- and late-successional stages. These proportions cannot be determined arbitrarily according to which species we like or dislike, by species counts, or by other formal parameters. What must be taken into account is, again, ecosystem functionality: its ability to regulate the environment and maintain its own homeostasis.
A practical solution follows naturally. If we choose the least disturbed ecosystems as conservation cores, we can surround them with buffer areas in which more disturbed ecosystems are allowed to proceed toward recovery through ecological succession. https://bioticregulation.
Green Prepper (took this picture of Jenny with fig tree and vultures watching from rooftop)
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