Empiricists,
Surplus Energy Economics , Of theory and practice
Here, then, is what we know about the ‘two economies’.
The ‘real economy’ is an energy system, and is defined as the use, in the present, of energy to supply products and services of value. The factors that determine the size of the real economy at any given time are the supply, value and cost of energy. Activity made possible by energy includes the construction of productive capacity, infrastructure, and facilities such as homes, hospitals and schools.
The ‘financial economy’ consists of monetary claims, of which some are exercised in the present, whilst others are set aside for the future. The financial system comprises an aggregation of forward claims, whose viability depends on the delivery capacity of the real (energy) economy of the future.
As remarked earlier, when creating these claims, we don’t assess their viability by enquiring into the probable size of the real economy of the future. We simply assume that the economy, defined financially, must carry on expanding.
On this basis, we have constructed a financial system that prioritises innovation over sustainability. Now that the ‘real’ economy has stopped growing, we’re about to discover that we have innovated our way to a systemic crisis.
The SEEDS model uses many techniques and metrics to interpret and describe the ‘two economies’ of energy and money, and some of the most important are summarised in the following charts.
The ‘financial economy’, represented by reported GDP, has carried on growing, largely because the transactional activity recorded as GDP has been inflated artificially by the breakneck creation of ever greater future claims (Fig. 1A). In other words, we’ve been flattering perceived flow by adding to the stock of liabilities, and then turning a blind eye to the linkage between the two.
Largely out of sight, the ‘real economy’ has been decelerating towards contraction (1B). This has happened because, through the process of depletion, the ECoEs – the Energy Costs of Energy – of fossil fuels have been rising relentlessly, reducing the amount of prosperity obtained from each unit of energy consumed.
Accordingly, a severe disequilibrium has emerged between the real and the financial economies (1C).
It’s only when we recognize that the eventually tendency must be towards equilibrium between the two economies – and apply the measured magnitude of disequilibrium to the current scale of forward liabilities (1D) – that we become aware of the inevitable destabilization of the financial system...
..The energy-intensive nature of so many necessities implies that, as the real costs of essentials rise, there will be a leveraged decline in the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services.
Inevitably, we’re going to try to stave off these realities using financial gimmickry. This could be characterised by the suppliers of non-essential products and services trying to bolster their sales by providing credit to their customers.
Inevitably, we’re going to try to stave off these realities using financial gimmickry. This could be characterised by the suppliers of non-essential products and services trying to bolster their sales by providing credit to their customers.
I think that those who control economic movements in our world (presumably because they understand them well, and can profit from that understanding, as well as manipulation) see the divergence between real economy and financial economy. One of the main drivers of WW-2 was the arrangements for debt repayment after WW-1. They were impossible. There are many details to that, but they were not only physically impossible, but financially impossible. Germany could not get the $US to pay to France and England, which they owed to the US (and the Federal Reserve banks) No country with $US would buy German goods. Germany was forced to borrow $US at low interest, which persistent low interest primed the world for the 1929 financial crash.
Hitler was lauded at first, as he was repudiating German debt, which was necessary to re-synchronize physical and financial economies on a global scale, however the social movement the Nazis set in motion needed more. It was a militarized growth-engine.
"This time" needs to be "different", since there is not the capacity for rapid growth of real-economy after the desolation of war.
The financial and power elites are having to work a problem they have never faced in our modern history.
They need human populations to follow orders, and they are inclined to use fear as a motivation. (I think a wholesome shared-purpose, based upon honest and open assessment would work better this time.)
The driving assumption of any scheme the current power/financial elites may support is that they remain in power, controlling the levers and extracting the economic surplus, as they see fit.
It would help them pay the bills if most retirees and welfare recipients died, of course. This would need to happen in the context of full societal compliance, all of which Hitler accomplished, but we see how that was done.
Classes of people were dehumanized, dispossessed and exterminated as less-than-human. This was expanded to include Slavic Russians, and that is where it failed.
There was a world war, or several overlapping imperial world-wars. The system of power and ownership was maintained, though the seat of the financial empire continued to shift. London > NY + London.
Importantly, for the winners,the power elites needed to make social contracts with the people, in order to prevail.
Those WW-2 social contracts have now been defaulted upon.
Any ruling coalition will need to strike new social contracts, which must be palatable to societies.
A ruling coalition (as in the UK, or the US) which lies to society, and seeks to impose austerity and mysterious deaths, will lose control to a rival ruling-coalition which enlists the goodwill and trust of society.That must be done honestly, and with wealth-sharing.
That's what history shows.
Hitler was lauded at first, as he was repudiating German debt, which was necessary to re-synchronize physical and financial economies on a global scale, however the social movement the Nazis set in motion needed more. It was a militarized growth-engine.
"This time" needs to be "different", since there is not the capacity for rapid growth of real-economy after the desolation of war.
The financial and power elites are having to work a problem they have never faced in our modern history.
They need human populations to follow orders, and they are inclined to use fear as a motivation. (I think a wholesome shared-purpose, based upon honest and open assessment would work better this time.)
The driving assumption of any scheme the current power/financial elites may support is that they remain in power, controlling the levers and extracting the economic surplus, as they see fit.
It would help them pay the bills if most retirees and welfare recipients died, of course. This would need to happen in the context of full societal compliance, all of which Hitler accomplished, but we see how that was done.
Classes of people were dehumanized, dispossessed and exterminated as less-than-human. This was expanded to include Slavic Russians, and that is where it failed.
There was a world war, or several overlapping imperial world-wars. The system of power and ownership was maintained, though the seat of the financial empire continued to shift. London > NY + London.
Importantly, for the winners,the power elites needed to make social contracts with the people, in order to prevail.
Those WW-2 social contracts have now been defaulted upon.
Any ruling coalition will need to strike new social contracts, which must be palatable to societies.
A ruling coalition (as in the UK, or the US) which lies to society, and seeks to impose austerity and mysterious deaths, will lose control to a rival ruling-coalition which enlists the goodwill and trust of society.That must be done honestly, and with wealth-sharing.
That's what history shows.
The two-tier system of justice is not Democrats vs. Republicans. It is anyone who is part of the administrative state and the D.C. beltway versus those who seek to destroy this political demon of the deep state. It is government gangsters against everyone else. When it comes to the U.S. government, there are no coincidences. Anything that masquerades as such is a strategic move to protect the upper echelons from ceding power to the proletariat they once rose from.
FBI Folds, Releases Biden 'Bribery' Document To House Oversight, Averting Contempt Vote
Meryl Nass MD, Why Countries Must Leave the World Health Organization. (Much edited. There is also a video.)
(The term “One Health” was first coined by EcoHealth Alliance,2 the group that subcontracted risky gain-of-function research to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), the lab from which SARS-CoV-2 emerged.)
One Health is the culmination of a grand global plan that places human health, animal health, environmental concerns, food, travel, housing and everything else under a single umbrella, and the WHO is being set up as the central decision-maker and overseer of it all.
One Health is based on the premise that a broad range of aspects of life and the environment can impact health and therefore fall under the “potential” to cause harm. The One Health agenda includes medicine, food and agriculture, communications, economics, civil society, global trade and commerce, research, noncommunicable disease, mental health, land use, disease surveillance and much more
Behind the scenes, One Health partnerships have already been formed in countries around the world. The One Health network was built and expanded in the U.S. primarily by cutting public health funding. One Health then stepped in with funding but, of course, recipients of One Health grants had to embrace the concept and push it out to others.
One Health is based on the premise that a broad range of aspects of life and the environment can impact health and therefore fall under the “potential” to cause harm. The One Health agenda includes medicine, food and agriculture, communications, economics, civil society, global trade and commerce, research, noncommunicable disease, mental health, land use, disease surveillance and much more
Behind the scenes, One Health partnerships have already been formed in countries around the world. The One Health network was built and expanded in the U.S. primarily by cutting public health funding. One Health then stepped in with funding but, of course, recipients of One Health grants had to embrace the concept and push it out to others.
One Health is also baked into the proposed amendments to the 2005 International Health Regulations (IHR), which the World Health Assembly (WHA) is scheduled to vote on in May 2024. This is how the WHO will gain the authority to dictate how we live our lives...
..In hindsight, it’s easy to see that the globalists’ plan to concentrate power has been in the works for decades, and the playbook is always the same: “Give us more power so we can protect you and keep you safe.” Alas, every time we give them more power, we find ourselves both less safe and less free...
Countries that treasure individual freedom and respect bodily autonomy have only one choice: Exit the World Health Organization.
Rule by Decree: The Emergency State’s Plot to Override the Constitution (Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney began revision of "Continuity of Government" plans under Jerry Ford, and resumed under Reagan/Bush. They were activated on 9/11/01 with VP Cheney in the driver's seat.)
The seeds of this ongoing madness were sown several decades ago when George W. Bush stealthily issued two presidential directives that granted the president the power to unilaterally declare a national emergency, which is loosely defined as “any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.“ Comprising the country’s Continuity of Government (COG) plan, these directives (National Security Presidential Directive 51 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 20), which do not need congressional approval, provide a skeletal outline of the actions the president will take in the event of a “national emergency.”
Just what sort of actions the president will take once he declares a national emergency can barely be discerned from the barebones directives. However, one thing is clear: in the event of a national emergency, the COG directives give unchecked executive, legislative and judicial power to the president. The country would then be subjected to martial law by default, and the Constitution and the Bill of Rights would be suspended...
...All of the imperial powers amassed by Obama, Bush, Trump and now Biden—to kill American citizens without due process, to detain suspects (including American citizens) indefinitely, to strip Americans of their citizenship rights, to carry out mass surveillance on Americans without probable cause, to wage wars without congressional authorization, to suspend laws during wartime, to disregard laws with which he might disagree, to conduct secret wars and convene secret courts, to sanction torture, to sidestep the legislatures and courts with executive orders and signing statements, to direct the military to operate beyond the reach of the law, to establish a standing army on American soil, to operate a shadow government, to declare national emergencies for any manipulated reason, and to act as a dictator and a tyrant, above the law and beyond any real accountability—have become a permanent part of the president’s toolbox of terror. Just what sort of actions the president will take once he declares a national emergency can barely be discerned from the barebones directives. However, one thing is clear: in the event of a national emergency, the COG directives give unchecked executive, legislative and judicial power to the president. The country would then be subjected to martial law by default, and the Constitution and the Bill of Rights would be suspended...
https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/rule_by_decree_the_emergency_states_plot_to_override_the_constitution
Yesterday, I focused on the study’s details. In the paper, researchers in South Korea reported finding 12 mRNA-driven myocarditis deaths in young adults, a figure that translates into up to 500 similar deaths globally.
Those deaths are obviously important.
But an even more vital takeaway from the paper is that doctors aren’t even properly reporting the best-known complication from the mRNA jabs. Not even when it occurs mere days after vaccination. Not even when it kills healthy young adults.
Eight of those 12 fatalities were initially misclassified as sudden cardiac deaths, with no mRNA myocarditis link. They were properly classified only after autopsies performed under a special Korean program.
So physicians can’t even count fatal cases of myocarditis, which has been highlighted as an mRNA complication for two years. How can we trust them to report other potential serious or fatal side effects, ones that occur in older people or haven’t received as much attention or both?
WHO Adopts European-Style COVID-19 Vaccine Passports As Part Of New Global Digital Health Certificate
Alex Berenson , Why the Covid vaccine myocarditis deaths in South Korea matter so much
Those deaths are obviously important.
But an even more vital takeaway from the paper is that doctors aren’t even properly reporting the best-known complication from the mRNA jabs. Not even when it occurs mere days after vaccination. Not even when it kills healthy young adults.
Eight of those 12 fatalities were initially misclassified as sudden cardiac deaths, with no mRNA myocarditis link. They were properly classified only after autopsies performed under a special Korean program.
So physicians can’t even count fatal cases of myocarditis, which has been highlighted as an mRNA complication for two years. How can we trust them to report other potential serious or fatal side effects, ones that occur in older people or haven’t received as much attention or both?
Thanks Oxymoron in Oz. Walter M.Chesnut:
An Urgent Warning: The Spike Protein Expressed On The Cell Surface Causes “Transplant Rejection” Of The Entire Body - Long COVID ,
Every Organ Expressing Spike Is Attacked As If It Were Transplanted Due To The Expression Of A Foreign Non-Self Protein On Cell Surfaces
More from Dr.Nass:
RFK Jr. tells Musk he wants to permanently seal the US-Mexico border; links mass shootings to pharmaceutical drugs; wants to end GOF worldwide
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined Elon Musk, venture capitalist David Sacks, former Democratic lawmaker Tulsi Gabbard, and others for a Twitter Spaces interview Monday to discuss many of the issues he reckons should be at the forefront of the political debate going into the 2024 presidential election.
Ed Curtain (Sirhan Sirhan was just a hypnotized patsy, not an assassin. Bobby Jr. is fully aware of this. Bobby Kennedy opposed the Vietnam War.)
The Assassination of Senator Robert F. Kennedy: Questions, Hints and AllegationsA comprehensive investigation by the Wall Street Journal and the Stanford Internet Observatory reveals that Meta-owned Instagram has been home to an organized and massive network of pedophiles.
During the 10 minute monologue, Carlson slammed Ukraine war mongers, and took the media to task for ignoring the "bombshell of the millennium" in which a government whistleblower revealed that craft developed by non-human intelligence has been recovered by governments around the world.
..Carlson’s legal team objects to Fox’s efforts to block the new program, arguing that Twitter as a platform is not in direct competition with Fox, the report said, citing a source familiar with their thinking. Another source familiar with the matter reportedly said that Fox executives told Carlson that the network intends to keep him sidelined until 2025. Any legal action by Fox would violate Carlson’s First Amendment rights to freedom of speech under the US Constitution, his lawyers reportedly said...
..Carlson was reportedly removed from the Fox News lineup as part of a settlement agreement with Dominion Voting Systems.
Matt Taibbi: Does Anyone Believe American Propaganda Anymore?
Russia and Ukraine spent yesterday trading accusations, while the U.S. leaked it was “leaning towards Russia as the culprit of the attack.”
The synchronicity was uncanny, with the media’s dam freakout coming exactly as public panic about the previous lunatic infrastructure attack came full circle, moving from certainty Russia blew up the Nord Stream pipeline to belated claims we knew all along Ukraine did it. It’s as if officials want the world to take American intelligence assessments more as Gilbert Gottfried routines than truth.
At 10:52 a.m. yesterday, the Washington Post published an exclusive called, “U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline.”
The story contended the United States learned from a “European intelligence service” in June, 2022 that Ukraine was planning a “covert attack” on Nord Stream, using divers who “reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces,” General Valery Zaluzhny.
Apparently, U.S. and European allies knew about the Ukrainian plan and were impotent to stop a move they worried “risked a severe Russian response.”
The only people in the country who didn’t roll eyes or laugh at these latest anonymous contortions were reporters.
In the column, Soros borrows a term from U.S. economic historian Adam Tooze, writing of a “polycrisis” in the world and pointing to the meteoric rise of artificial intelligence, climate change and the war in Ukraine...
..“There will be general elections in the United States in 2024 – and, most likely, in the United Kingdom as well – and AI will undoubtedly play an important role, one which is unlikely to be anything but dangerous. AI is very good at producing disinformation and deep fakes and there will be many malicious actors. What can we do about that? I don’t have the answer, but I hope this issue will receive the attention it deserves.” Soros predicts Ukrainian victory in counterattack, says Russia is a ‘paper tiger’
American oligarch of Hungarian origin George Soros believes Ukraine will win the war, and it will be a “positive shock” for global relations. The billionaire made the predictions in a new column in Project Syndicate, which is partly funded by his own Open Society Foundations. In the column, Soros borrows a term from U.S. economic historian Adam Tooze, writing of a “polycrisis” in the world and pointing to the meteoric rise of artificial intelligence, climate change and the war in Ukraine...
Christine sends this from Gilbert Doctorow Where oh Where is Chinese Support for Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine?
There are no indications that China has supplied any military hardware to Russia. Perhaps they have shipped some dual use microchips, but that is not clear. What we can see is that they substantially raised their purchases of Russian oil. But they have taken the big discounts that Russia was obliged to give to any and all buyers following imposition of Western sanctions on its hydrocarbons. So it is an open question of who was doing whom favors in that domain.
There is reason to believe that the real test of China’s readiness to help Russia in what is now effectively a war with the whole of NATO will come in the next two weeks or so.
In a rather alarmist article issued on 21 May, John Helmer, a Russia expert and blogger living in Moscow for decades, tells us that the Air Defender 23 exercises that begin on 12 June may be used by Washington and its NATO allies to cover and protect what will be called raids by Ukrainian piloted F16s into the Donbas and perhaps further into the Russian Federation itself. This daring and perhaps very violent “exercise” would be a provocation inviting Russian counter attack on the bases in Germany and elsewhere in NATO member states from which the attacking aircraft took off. And there you have it, the casus belli for WWIII.
There is reason to believe that the real test of China’s readiness to help Russia in what is now effectively a war with the whole of NATO will come in the next two weeks or so.
In a rather alarmist article issued on 21 May, John Helmer, a Russia expert and blogger living in Moscow for decades, tells us that the Air Defender 23 exercises that begin on 12 June may be used by Washington and its NATO allies to cover and protect what will be called raids by Ukrainian piloted F16s into the Donbas and perhaps further into the Russian Federation itself. This daring and perhaps very violent “exercise” would be a provocation inviting Russian counter attack on the bases in Germany and elsewhere in NATO member states from which the attacking aircraft took off. And there you have it, the casus belli for WWIII.
Not Laughing (pictured in Austin vegetable garden)
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