Exquisite Creatures,
‘PEAK OIL’ AND THE UNFOLDING INFLEXION , Surplus Energy Economics
According to Goehring & Rozencwajg – who are as good as it gets where energy analysis is concerned – Hubbert’s peak is finally here. Only hindsight, of course, can conclusively determine the moment at which “peak oil” became a reality, but G&R are very probably right.
With conventional oil production in decline since 2016, the only source of unconventional supply which remains capable of further increase is the Permian basin, located in six counties in West Texas. This basin, say G&R, is within a year of its own peak, and we know how rapidly shale production declines once a basin slips onto the down-slope of the ‘drilling treadmill’. The rates of decline of individual shale wells tend to be very rapid, and a point inevitably arrives at which operators can no longer drill enough new wells to stop overall output declining... According to Goehring & Rozencwajg – who are as good as it gets where energy analysis is concerned – Hubbert’s peak is finally here. Only hindsight, of course, can conclusively determine the moment at which “peak oil” became a reality, but G&R are very probably right.
..The peaking and impending decline of oil supply is sky-writing dramatic changes to activities hitherto taken for granted. It’s almost impossible to overstate the importance of oil for so many aspects of daily life...
..We have indeed taken enormous technological strides over the past two centuries, but that has been possible because the supply of low-cost energy has always, hitherto, been abundant. Technologies evolve to suit the energy available to power them, and the contrary proposition is ludicrous.
The critical issue, so often dismissed or ignored by the high priests of the new and shiny, is that the capabilities of technology are bounded by the laws of physics...
..This is where the term “renewable” ought to be subjected to far more critical examination than it has tended to receive so far. We can’t source the plastics required for the renewables sector without hydrocarbon feedstocks. Renewables can’t, of themselves, power the extraction, processing and delivery of the vast amounts of concrete, steel, copper, cobalt, lithium and a host of other resources required for the development, maintenance and eventual replacement of wind and solar power.
In short, “renewables” would merit that label only if they were capable of renewing – that is to say, replacing – themselves over time...
..Any pilot worth his or her licence knows that “Isaac (Newton) is always waiting” if they get something wrong. The starry-eyed visionaries of energy transition need to develop an equivalent awareness of the hard limits of physics...
..The coming decline in oil and broader fossil fuel supply, coupled with continuing cost increases and the lack of full-replacement alternatives, provides significant visibility on future trends. The world’s average person will become gradually less prosperous, a process exacerbated by rises in the real costs of energy-intensive necessities including food, water, housing and essential travel.
The result will be a leveraged contraction in the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services. Labour intensity in the economy will reverse its long decline, absorbing workers released by contraction in the discretionary sectors.
To this extent, economic contraction is capable, at least in theory, of happening gradually. The same, though, cannot be said of the financial system...
..As you may know, I believe that we can only seek to understand economic trends effectively if we embrace the concept of “two economies” – a “real economy” of material products and services, and a parallel “financial economy” of money and credit.
From this, it follows that money, having no intrinsic worth, commands value only as a ‘claim’ on the goods and services made available by the “real economy”. These “claims” exist in two forms – those that we exercise, transactionally, in the present, and those which we set aside for exercise in the future. Measured in relation to material prosperity, the exercise of excessive claims in the present is mediated by inflation, but the real problem resides in a huge excess of monetary ‘claims on the future’...
..It may seem obvious that less oil means less driving and less flying, but the real significance of oil contraction lies in what it means for ‘behind the scenes’ activities such as food production, petrochemical supply, and the distribution of products and raw materials.
The moment, as well as the implications, of “peak oil” have been debated over decades, and there is no particular practical significance attached to the precise date of its arrival. Moreover, surplus oil – that is, supply less its ECoE-cost of delivery – has already turned down, both on an aggregate and a per-capita basis.
But the symbolic meaning of the peak oil “moment” could hardly be more profound.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2023/06/17/258-written-in-the-skies/
Charles Hugh Smith , Doom-Loop I: "Bringing Demand Forward" Will No Longer Save Us
The US economy has been saved time and again over the past two decades by this one weird trick: "Bringing Demand Forward" by lowering interest rates and lending standards so Americans could continue to buy stuff they didn't really need because the monthly payment dropped as interest rates were pushed toward zero...
..Nothing "Brings Demand Forward" like a speculative bubble and so inflating credit-based bubbles is all part of the plan to encourage people to buy stuff they don't need on credit to keep GDP expanding.
"Bringing Demand Forward" with speculative bubbles is joyous until the bubble pops--and all bubbles pop. When bubbles deflate, gains are replaced by losses and the reverse wealth effect kicks in.
The solution for the past two decades has been to drop interest rates even further and expand credit even more to generate a new bubble in one asset class or another.
Now that central banks have pumped up the Everything Bubble and unleashed inflation, the weird trick of dropping interest rates / juicing liquidity no longer works...
"Bringing Demand Forward" with speculative bubbles is joyous until the bubble pops--and all bubbles pop. When bubbles deflate, gains are replaced by losses and the reverse wealth effect kicks in.
The solution for the past two decades has been to drop interest rates even further and expand credit even more to generate a new bubble in one asset class or another.
Now that central banks have pumped up the Everything Bubble and unleashed inflation, the weird trick of dropping interest rates / juicing liquidity no longer works...
.."Bringing Demand Forward" always had an expiration date. You can't bring demand forward forever. Eventually consumers tap out, bubbles pop, speculative gambles go bust, debt service eats up consumers' disposable income, credit cards get maxed out and enterprises bloated by decades of bubbles and credit-funded spending implode under their fixed costs and debt loads...
..It's going to hurt when we hit the rocks at the bottom and unfortunately few are taking measures to reduce their risk while such measures are still within reach.
Pepe Escobar , If you're counting on Asia's many new power centers to compete and clash – don't. The Greater Eurasia Partnership is set to integrate them all – from the SCO, EAEU, and BRICS, to emerging new currencies – in order to replace the 'rules-based order.'
On July 4, at a New Delhi summit, Iran will finally become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).....Russia and Iran – two key poles of Eurasia integration – have been getting closer and closer geoeconomically since the west’s sanctions tsunami that followed Russia’s February 2022 Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine..
..In a parallel track, the members of the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), during a recent summit in Iran, decided to launch a new cross-border financial messaging system this month as a rival to the western-centric SWIFT.
The ACU comprises the Central Banks of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Iran: a healthy mix of West Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
It was the Central Bank of Iran – still under harsh sanctions – that developed the new bank messaging system, so new it’s not yet known by its own acronym.
Crucially, the Governor of Russia’s Central Bank took part in the ACU summit as an observer, along with officials from Belarus, which applied for ACU membership two weeks ago..
..As Iran’s first Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber summed it up: “De-dollarization is not a voluntary choice by countries anymore; it is an inevitable response to the weaponization of the dollar.”... The ACU comprises the Central Banks of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Iran: a healthy mix of West Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
It was the Central Bank of Iran – still under harsh sanctions – that developed the new bank messaging system, so new it’s not yet known by its own acronym.
Crucially, the Governor of Russia’s Central Bank took part in the ACU summit as an observer, along with officials from Belarus, which applied for ACU membership two weeks ago..
..Iran is now at the heart of all things multipolar. The recent discovery of a massive lithium field holding roughly 10 percent of the world’s reserves, coupled with the quite possible admission of Iran into the expanded BRICS – or BRICS+ – as early as this year, has bolstered scenarios of an upcoming BRICS currency backed by commodities: gold, oil, gas and – inevitably – lithium...
,,The Global South has had enough of the US sanctioning and banning whoever, whatever, and whenever they like, in defense of a hazy, arbitrary “rules-based international order.” .....All interlinked developments concerning SCO, BRICS, EAEU, and other multilateral mechanisms – now happening at breakneck speed – are converging in practice into a concept formulated in Russia back in 2018: the Greater Eurasia Partnership...
..As Lavrov routinely explains now in all of his important meetings, this includes “interlinking the complementary development plans” of the EAEU and China’s BRI; expanding interaction “within the framework of the SCO with the involvement of SCO observer states and dialogue partners;” “strengthening the strategic partnership” between Russia and ASEAN; and “establishing working contacts” among the executive bodies of the EAEU, SCO, and ASEAN. Add to it the crucial interaction between the upcoming BRICS+ and all of the above; literally, everybody and their neighbor all across the Global South is queuing up to enter Club BRICS.
Gilbert Doctorow watches Russian TV so he sees things we don't see in the 'states.
Thanks to the Vladimir Solovyov talk show last night, I have heard a recent speech by Kennedy in which he sets out the insightful and entirely sane thoughts of his uncle on managing relations with the Russians. Yes, I did not hear RFK Jr. on the BBC or on CNN. It had to be Solovyov who understood that this speech must be disseminated widely...
..Kennedy’s speech was instead based on objective reasoning: recognizing that the other side is also human, that it also has national interests which it holds as dear as we do ours and that compromises must be made to preserve the human race. This is a starting point that deserves the full and enthusiastic support of everyone who values peace and abhors the thought of a coming nuclear war. It trumps all other partisan concerns of Left and Right and Middle in the United States. Those other partisan concerns, which include identity politics, minority rights, environmentalism may be important in their own right, but have been used cynically by those in power to distract the electorate from the fundamental issues of politics, which concern the share of the economic pie enjoyed by each stratum in society and a peaceful world in which to enjoy the prosperity.....A candidate who has said he would immediately pardon Snowden and Assange, as RFK Jr. has said, is a man who deserves the support of every enlightened citizen in the land.
One must wonder what people are actually making the military decisions in the West/US/NATO, where they physically exist, what their personal "skin in the game" is, and what they expect to lose or gain in this global conflict. This World War 3 is primarily over control of global resources, finance and production.
The old glbal trade and financial system is decaying and will be superseded by the developing Eurasian and Global South alliances.
This is "existential" for the owners as regards their positional status controlling western finance, trade and politics. However, as long as they do not feel personally threatened with death, they will be willing to take very high risks with the lives of the rest of the humans in the world.
Dmitry Trenin, an extremely respected Russian expert who served in the Soviet military gives his response...
..The fear of the atomic bomb, present in the second half of the twentieth century, has disappeared. Nuclear weapons have been taken out of the equation. The practical conclusion is clear: there is no need to be afraid of such a Russian response.
This is an extremely dangerous misconception. The trajectory of the Ukrainian war points to an escalation of the conflict both horizontally (by expanding the theater of military action) and vertically (by increasing the power of the weapons used and the intensity of their use). It must be soberly acknowledged that this momentum is heading towards a direct armed confrontation between Russia and NATO....
This is an extremely dangerous misconception. The trajectory of the Ukrainian war points to an escalation of the conflict both horizontally (by expanding the theater of military action) and vertically (by increasing the power of the weapons used and the intensity of their use). It must be soberly acknowledged that this momentum is heading towards a direct armed confrontation between Russia and NATO....
..So far, Moscow’s strategy has been to allow the enemy to take the escalatory initiative. The West has taken advantage of this, trying to wear down Russia on the battlefield and undermine it from within. It makes no sense for the Kremlin to go along with this plan. On the contrary, it’s a better idea to clarify and modernize our nuclear deterrence strategy, taking into account the practical experience of the Ukrainian conflict...
..The main adversary should be given an unambiguous signal that Moscow will not play by the rules set by the other side. Of course, this should be accompanied by a credible dialogue with both our strategic partners and neutral states, explaining the motives and objectives of our actions. The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict must not be concealed...
Regarding Russian nuclear strikes against NATO countries, as raised by Professor Karaganov: Hypothetically speaking, Washington would most likely not respond to such an attack with a nuclear response of its own against Russia – for fear of a Russian retaliatory launch against the US itself. This would dispel the mythology that has surrounded Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty for decades and lead to a profound crisis for NATO – possibly even the dissolution of the organization. It is possible that, in such circumstances, the Atlantic elites of NATO and the EU would panic and be swept aside by patriotic forces that would see for themselves that their security does not in fact depend on a non-existent US nuclear umbrella, but on building a balanced relationship with Russia. It is also possible that the Americans could decide to leave Russia alone.
It could well be that the calculation just described would ultimately be correct. But it is unlikely.
Yes, a US nuclear strike on Russia would probably not follow immediately. It is unlikely that the Americans would sacrifice Boston for Poznan, just as they were not going to sacrifice Chicago for Hamburg during the Cold War. But there will probably be some sort of response from Washington. Perhaps of the non-atomic type, which, without speculating too wildly, could be sensitive and painful for us. It is likely that with it, Washington would try to pursue a goal similar to ours: paralyzing the Russian leadership's will to continue the war and creating panic in our society. Moscow’s leadership is unlikely to capitulate after such a blow, since, at this stage, Russia's very existence would be at stake. It is more likely that a retaliatory strike would follow, and this time, one can assume, against the main adversary rather than its satellites...It could well be that the calculation just described would ultimately be correct. But it is unlikely.
..The war in Ukraine has become protracted. As far as we can tell from the actions of the Russian leadership, it expects to achieve strategic success by relying on Russian resources, which are many times greater than those in Ukraine. It also relies on the fact that Moscow has much more at stake in this war than the West. This calculation is probably correct, but it should be taken into account that the opponent assesses Russia's chances differently than we do and may take steps which could lead to a direct armed clash between Russia and the US/NATO.
We must be prepared for such a development. To avoid a general catastrophe, it is necessary to put fear of armageddon back into politics and the public consciousness.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on Thursday told the House Armed Services Committee that he wants to give President Biden the authority to intervene militarily in Cuba to “take out” Chinese assets that are allegedly on the island.
“I support an Authorization for Use of Military Force to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” Gaetz said. He wanted to add the AUMF as an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) but had to withdraw it for procedural reasons.
“To my hawk friends on the committee who think I’m too much of a dove, this amendment is an authorization to use military force given to President Biden to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” he said.
Gaetz’s comments came after The Wall Street Journal reported Beijing and Havana are negotiating to establish a joint military training facility in Cuba, which cited unnamed US officials who based the claim on “convincing but fragmentary” intelligence... “I support an Authorization for Use of Military Force to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” Gaetz said. He wanted to add the AUMF as an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) but had to withdraw it for procedural reasons.
“To my hawk friends on the committee who think I’m too much of a dove, this amendment is an authorization to use military force given to President Biden to take out the Chinese assets in Cuba,” he said.
..The Journal report said that some US intelligence officials say “that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the US relationship with Taiwan: The US invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own.”
Sasha Latypova and some of my friends are on this 848 pages, but I gave up looking for myself at 124 pages. It's not searchable, just a PDF. I've been censored intermittently since 2016, and some other things have happened which cannot be explained in terms of who could have known what, and how.
Verified on a government watchlist, at last! NYC Department of Health is Spending Taxpayers' Money to Spy on Racially Profiled Communities Using Federal Intelligence Affiliates as "Private Contractors"
Skin in the Game (took this picture of Jenny picking green beans)
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