Competing For Resources,
Red has sent Gail Tverberg's latest blog post about the critical nature of medium-petroleum-distillates, Diesel and Jet-Fuel for the critical transportation, mining , farming and industrial sectors. These cannot typically be obtained from lighter petroleum liquids, as obtained from fracking, but only from heavy crude. This is in shorter supply, and is becoming harder and more expensive to get out of the ground, as the easy oil was tapped first. This focuses on a critical economic sector. The Yellow Shipping Company has gone bankrupt. They provided final destination shipping to stores, small businesses and grocers. This cost will rise. All costs rise when the cost of a critical input rises, no matter what is done with the money supply. This was apparent in the 1970s, as oil prices tripled.
One of the trends this causes is productive economy moving to areas with lower overhead for total cost of manufacturing, because everybody hunts for bargains.
This trend is shown in graphs of OECD country vs. non-OECD use of diesel. "Advanced" countries topped out of middle-distillate use in 2007, with high prices, but poorer countries kept using more and more of these industrial, farming and transport fuels, implying the transfer of those productive activities to these countries.
A point she makes is that Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines have low heating and cooling costs, low costs of transportation (fewer cars) and low medical costs.
The biggest picture I would like to bring forward is that the moment predicted since 1957 seems to be well upon us, visible as a peak in petroleum liquids production in late 2018. (The late 2018 peak in total conventional oil does not factor in the greater percentage of that total required to get the oil out of the ground, transported, and processed. It is not as much higher in net-oil than the 2005 peak which led to acute price rises before 2008.) Where are we on this graph?
The book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, published in 1972, discusses the result of early modeling efforts with respect to resource limits. These resource limits were very broadly defined, including minerals such as copper and lithium in addition to fossil fuels. A range of indications were produced, but the base model (based on business as usual) seemed to show limits hitting before 2030 (Figure 1).
I have tracked this graph since I learned about it in1974. It has tracked quite well, though both births and deaths trended a bit lower after the 1990s (not shown).
It seems to me that our world, as modeled here, has just had the inflection point of food, services and industrial-output per capita, and has used about half of "resources", for which oil is a good marker.
This Systems Analysis model did not include any political or economic theory, only fundamental data pertaining to the system of this world as populated and managed by humans. There were 3 iterations of this computer modeling, which tracked the previous century very well when taken back to "predict" it from starting measurements. "World-3" produced this graph, a restatement of the original 1972 "Business as Usual" graph.
The thrust in 1972 was for the world to work concertedly to bring about a better future for humanity than the one after the inflection we're in. Jimmy Carter, who commanded a nuclear sub and risked his life in a core emergency to save the crew, was an acolyte of Admiral Rickover, and the last President of the US to address this honestly. Reagan and Thatcher derided it, introduced neoliberal financial "reforms" and began extracting wealth from the productive physical economies of their nations through global
Looking at this from the viewpoint of the current "owners", we can see the breakdown of "their" industrial capacity, as "their" resources are rapidly depleted. Their work to reduce global births did seem to have an effect, but was offset by fewer deaths, so global population remains on track.
What options are open to them to reduce the damage to their system of industrial production? The peak happened in late 2018, and we got COVID lckdowns.
Can you think of anything other than drastically cutting births and bringing most of the future deaths way forward?
How could this be done without destroying the industrial economy? There is no way to rebuild it from scratch now.
A Midwestern Doctor , The Forgotten History of Sterilizing Vaccines [Meaning "vaccines that prevent people from having children" in this context.]
Giving poor women in South & Central America and Africa tetanus vaccines that would make them infertile through having "spontaneous" abortions was secretive research, funded by the WHO and others, and advocated by Bill Gates, until it was discovered and called out, largely by Catholic nuns and clergy. Many of us are aware of that, but not aware of Gardasil having similar effects. Many of us are now aware of decreased fertility after COVID gene-therapy injections, and that the lipid nanospheres concentrate in the ovaries and testes. We are also aware of excess deaths rising in 2021 with vaccines, not in 2020 with COVID.
This excellent research reveals the eugenicist drive to control human populations without consent, the many vaccines, and vaccine-additives which have been shown to do this. Also included are painful human testimonials of women, forcefully vaccinated in school or work, who keep losing babies when they get pregnant.
As detailed in the June 1995 HLI Reports newsletter, when the first reports surfaced in the Philippines that an anti-fertility vaccine had been deployed, health officials at The WHO and Phillipine health agencies categorically denied that their vaccine contained hCG. When confronted with lab test evidence showing the vaccine vials contained hCG as well as laboratory evidence that there were high levels of hCG antibodies in 27 out of 30 women who had been vaccinated, WHO officials started to make excuses .....After the widespread outcry against the hCG vaccinations, the WHO backed off and planned “tetanus” vaccination campaigns were cancelled. In the following years, Bill Gates initiated his campaign to buy out the WHO, and with a 10-billion-dollar investment in 2010 shifted the WHO’s focus much further towards vaccination and fertility control (doing so at the expense of the traditional approaches that had previously greatly improved global public health)...
..After I published this article, one reader left the following commentary that highlights the long term effects on fertility this sterilizing vaccine was able to produce:
"My wife is Kenyan and sometime around 15 years ago, when she was still a teenager, she was forced to take one of those “tetanus” vaccines. She and another student who had refused were cornered in a room and forcibly administered the shot. Nearly every one of her school mates whom she is still in touch with have developed some sort of fertility-related problem, and difficulty bringing a baby to full term. My wife herself has had multiple miscarriages. horribly painful and several weeks-long menstrual cycles, sudden death of the baby in the womb, and more. We have one baby who lived. The doctor who delivered her via emergency C-section said he had never seen anything like it....everything was going wrong, the baby stopped developing early on.....our daughter is now 5 and is normal in every way, but it is a miracle.
The girls from her village who were too poor for school fees were spared the vaccine, and they haven’t had any problem conceiving or giving birth.
This horror is still going on in Kenya, now with the Covid shots.
"My wife is Kenyan and sometime around 15 years ago, when she was still a teenager, she was forced to take one of those “tetanus” vaccines. She and another student who had refused were cornered in a room and forcibly administered the shot. Nearly every one of her school mates whom she is still in touch with have developed some sort of fertility-related problem, and difficulty bringing a baby to full term. My wife herself has had multiple miscarriages. horribly painful and several weeks-long menstrual cycles, sudden death of the baby in the womb, and more. We have one baby who lived. The doctor who delivered her via emergency C-section said he had never seen anything like it....everything was going wrong, the baby stopped developing early on.....our daughter is now 5 and is normal in every way, but it is a miracle.
The girls from her village who were too poor for school fees were spared the vaccine, and they haven’t had any problem conceiving or giving birth.
This horror is still going on in Kenya, now with the Covid shots.
Meryl Nass MD , Please make them stop the insanity of using nearly all newborns as guinea pigs. [So,it's not "insanity", right? It's intentional, isn't it?]
CDC's ACIP today voted unanimously to give a monoclonal antibody to newborns on day 1-7 of life to prevent RSV.
MORE babies DIED who were TREATED than were in the control group. Same story as Pfizer's initial COVID shot trial. This will almost certainly kill many babies.
Joel Smalley , Care home massacres, remdesivir and COVID "Vaccines" - which killed the most?
Analysis of Minnesota death certificate data reveals that collectively, COVID interventions caused at least four times more excess mortality than COVID itself.
Analysis of Minnesota death certificate data reveals that collectively, COVID interventions caused at least four times more excess mortality than COVID itself.
Glenn Greenwald, who refused to get on the Trump-crucifixion bandwagon, saw his Wikipedia page, static for years, go through rapid transformation to a platform for slanderous attacks with each sentence, ..and MORE! (This sensitive and cogent interview is suitable for Obama, Clnton and Biden supporters.)
Wikipedia Co-Founder Condemns It: “Most Biased Encyclopedia” in History [And CIA involvement since at least 2008]Macleod gives a long and detailed report, with much actuarial analysis, pointing out that Russia and China each have at least 2-3 times the amount of monetary gold necessary to back all of the currency they have created (Not backing bank loans. That's different.)
The US/Fed-system has less than 1/3 enough gold to back official $US (at $2000/oz), if it has what it says, and that gold is not rehypothecated.
(Germany has yet to get all of her physical gold back. "It's complicated.")
...At the very least, if China and Russia’s grand project is to proceed, the renminbi and rouble must be protected from a fiat currency crisis. This is the moment for which the Chinese have been preparing since 1983, and the Russians more recently sparked by western sanctions. They at least have sufficient bullion available to cover their narrow money supply with ample margins and are the two largest nations by goldmine output. A move towards gold backing of other currencies is likely to prove more difficult, because of the shortage of monetary gold due to the double counting of reserves through leasing and swaps. The only solution for many of the BRICS attendees in Johannesburg later this month will be to piggy-back on China’s yuan though a currency board relationship. The rest of the world faces the grim prospect of being ensnared in a widespread fiat currency collapse with no visible escape.
...At the very least, if China and Russia’s grand project is to proceed, the renminbi and rouble must be protected from a fiat currency crisis. This is the moment for which the Chinese have been preparing since 1983, and the Russians more recently sparked by western sanctions. They at least have sufficient bullion available to cover their narrow money supply with ample margins and are the two largest nations by goldmine output. A move towards gold backing of other currencies is likely to prove more difficult, because of the shortage of monetary gold due to the double counting of reserves through leasing and swaps. The only solution for many of the BRICS attendees in Johannesburg later this month will be to piggy-back on China’s yuan though a currency board relationship. The rest of the world faces the grim prospect of being ensnared in a widespread fiat currency collapse with no visible escape.
Eleni sent this from Alastair Crooke, about unexamined assumptions of military dominance.
The 2006 war on Lebanon: A pilot for Re-setting the Military Balance?But Hezbollah and Iran did conceive an answer: Their ‘Air Force’ was to be simple-to-manufacture missiles produced in quantity, and dispersed widely in concealed launch sites (i.e. there was never to be a central airbase to the missile force that could be destroyed). It worked -- missiles and drones have become ubiquitous, as the answer to conventional air power.
It had a secondary benefit, too. The West, habituated to the Air Dominance paradigm, did not bother much with investing in air defenses, on the assumption that their airspace dominance would allow them instantly to destroy any non-western Air Force. However the missile/drone approach, of course, facilitated a concomitant focus on air defense missiles, in parity with ground missiles. Today, it is Russia that has the world’s most advanced air defense layered systems (the US lags far behind).
Secondly, Hezbollah had pioneered ‘deep-study’ intelligence principles. As Western (and Israeli) Intel slumped into lazy reliance on the hubristic conviction that the Western sphere was the lucky inheritor of a superior cultural DNA, so Israeli Intelligence just could not believe that they had got their analysis so wrong.
I have had to pay a lot of attention to military history recently, and developing military tactics, which are evolving in this Ukraine war. There are lots of little cheap drones taking out Russian armored vehicles and hitting Russian troops, which are a form of air-power, as above. Russia has much more advanced drones, bigger, more accurate, more destructive, but hitting an armored vehicle with any drone usually takes it out of the fight. The kind of air-superiority NATO had after Vietnam cannot really go up against Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Piloted airplanes are very expensive, and increasingly vulnerable, even at long distances. The drones taking out shipping are cheap, sometimes made out of jet-skis, for instance.
People are easier and easier to kill with mass produced technology, which can be made cheaper and cheaper. At the same time, poisons of various kinds, especially mandatory "vaccines", present a new arena of population-reduction, enabling a vast theft of benefits and property.
Because war is like on TV and movies. Moon of Alabama (Germany) has this story about American perceptions in propaganda-reality. Thanks Christine.
Three Polls On Support For The War In UkraineThere are new polls out which show the changing opinion of U.S. citizens and others about supporting the war in Ukraine.
Newsweek came first, with a very deceiving headline:
U.S. Troops Should be Sent to Ukraine, Third of Americans Say
The text describing the poll does not really support what the headline says:
A total of 31 percent of eligible voters in the U.S. support or strongly support American military forces heading to the battlefields of Ukraine, polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has revealed.
A quarter of respondents neither supported nor opposed the idea of sending U.S. soldiers to Ukraine, with 34 percent against the suggestion. Just under one in ten respondents did not know.
Can anyone tell me why one would put the losing share of the opinion poll into the headline?
What is surprising, at least to me, is the huge difference of opinions between the young and the older voters:
In the poll, those identified as "Millennial," between 27 and 42 years old, were most likely to "strongly support" committing U.S. troops to Ukraine. However, more respondents aged between 18-26 (Gen Z) said they would support the measure overall, 47 percent saying they supported or strongly supported sending U.S. troops.
Nearly a third of respondents aged over 59 said they opposed pledging U.S. troops to Ukraine, with a further 25 percent "strongly" opposing the suggestion...
When asked specifically about types of assistance the US could provide to Ukraine, there is broader support for help with intelligence gathering (63%) and military training (53%) than for providing weapons (43%), alongside very slim backing for US military forces to participate in combat operations (17%).
There is a strong partisan divide about supporting the war: [just with other people's money]
Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.
Independents mostly say the US has done enough to help Ukraine (56%) and that they oppose additional funding (55%).
Less than a day after a sea drone hit a Russian warship near the Kerch strait, there is this attack on a privately owned fuel tanker, though it is carrying fuel to Syria under Russian military contract. This will raise insurance rates very high, potentially eliminating Black Sea transport.
Russian Tanker Hit By Ukrainian Sea Drones, Likely With Help From US IntelligenceAbout 6 weeks ago Wagner PMC owner Prigozhin alluded to Wagner moving somewhere on August 5, which was yesterday. I have been looking out for where that might be. Wagner forces remain in Belarus, training Belarusian soldiers and providing a threat & deterrence to Poland.
Simplicius has a video of a large Russian military transport landing in Naimey, the capital of Niger, with a story that Wagner has been asked to help militarily, as it had helped Mali and Burkina Faso, now independent of French neocolonialism after their nationalist coups. RT has that story, also.
The US has cut financial aid, but not grain to Niger, and is still short of calling for a military invasion. ECOWAS, a regional alliance, including Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria, is split on doing imperial bidding. Mali and Burkina Faso side with Niger, commiting to military defense. Other member militaries devised an intervention plan, but the Nigerian Senate has voted it down, so the situation is tense, but undecided. The US has stated that Wagner intervention would constitute a Russian invasion, but Wagner might already be quietly in place, might not need to do anything but prepare, and every country in the area has seen the efficacy of their military, and has found them more reasonable and effective than French mercenaries, which have left the region, out-competed by Wagner.
Alastair Crooke, Thanks again, Eleni , Can Netanyahu re-position strategically? Is it even feasible?
“Netanyahu’s government is extremist; a threat to US-Israeli relations – and Netanyahu is its ‘accomplice’,” Biden suggests.
Prominent Israeli figures in the anti-Netanyahu camp say openly: “A military coup is underway in Israel. This is the unvarnished truth. At the same time, there is an attempt to play with words in order to avoid looking the reality in the eye”.
Prominent Israeli figures in the anti-Netanyahu camp say openly: “A military coup is underway in Israel. This is the unvarnished truth. At the same time, there is an attempt to play with words in order to avoid looking the reality in the eye”.
Veteran commentator, Gideon Levy, however paints in different colours:
“This is (also) the story of an army that had a state. Along came a government that acted to overturn the orders of the government, in the army’s state - whereupon the army rose in protest against the government. Even in the wake of the spectacular march to Jerusalem, whose likes have never been seen here before - there is no mistaking the protest’s militaristic character, which overshadows its civilian foundations”.
Against this threatening backdrop, why ever would Netanyahu not look around for support from elsewhere? ...
..Netanyahu heads a ‘Settler’ government that is aggressively expanding the settlements, contrary to formal agreements with the US. What is more, the Settler faction plans not just an increase – but a massive increase of the settlements across the West Bank. And the West Bank is boiling.“This is (also) the story of an army that had a state. Along came a government that acted to overturn the orders of the government, in the army’s state - whereupon the army rose in protest against the government. Even in the wake of the spectacular march to Jerusalem, whose likes have never been seen here before - there is no mistaking the protest’s militaristic character, which overshadows its civilian foundations”.
Against this threatening backdrop, why ever would Netanyahu not look around for support from elsewhere? ...
Just to be clear, disallowing settlement expansion has been the US’ ‘Red Line’ for the last 23 years. There are many agreements in this respect. It is at bottom, America’s principal gesture toward the Palestinians -- halting the gobbling up of the West Bank. Washington cannot afford to turn a blind eye because there is no political process otherwise on offer to Ramallah...
..The flow and direction of the Region are as plain as a pikestaff. To which sphere would Netanyahu think to hitch the Israeli ‘wagon’? To remain as the isolated Western outlier, protruding into a consolidated Eurasian mega economic and security bloc, or try to go with the Russia axis (that he knows well, and with which he has good relations) and be on the right side of history?
If only politics were so rational! Should Netanyahu survive the coup d’état being mounted against him, his path will likely end in tragedy --because that is his nature. He has no choice but for it to happen, because it is his nature to say one thing to one interlocutor, and flatly assert the direct opposite to another; it is in his nature to be indecisive; to postpone action, and to tergiversate, until events ultimately become the solvent that ‘undoes’ him.
If only politics were so rational! Should Netanyahu survive the coup d’état being mounted against him, his path will likely end in tragedy --because that is his nature. He has no choice but for it to happen, because it is his nature to say one thing to one interlocutor, and flatly assert the direct opposite to another; it is in his nature to be indecisive; to postpone action, and to tergiversate, until events ultimately become the solvent that ‘undoes’ him.
Ben Davidson makes 5 points on the periodic reversal of earth's magnetic poles, currently underway.
Ben Davidson explains his read on the rotation of damage to the sun-facing side of the planet during recurring micronova events, which coordinate with magnetic pole shifts, and are induced by the recurring waves of the galactic current sheet passing through our solar system on a roughly 12,000 year cycle. (I am not reassured that he has any reason to be so sure of the orderly progression of what part of the planet will be facing the micronovaflas, which will be followed after some lag (12 hrs?) by the impact of the exploded accretion shell.) He further explains lightning induction by cosmic rays, and ozone depletion.
Local Producer (pictured with Jenny, banana patch and end of okra row)
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