Monday, October 23, 2023

Value Misjudgements

 Thinking Things Through,

  Gilbert Doctorow says European leaders have blinders on about the risks they are subjecting their countries to.
When does a regional war become a global war?  What are the dangers of the present conflict in the Middle East for Europe?
​  Yesterday afternoon there was a less hopeful bit of news coming out of the gathering in Egypt convened by President Sisi between regional heads of state and European leaders. It turned out that the sides could not agree on a way forward. The Arab, Egyptian and other regional leaders wanted to agree to a call for an immediate cease-fire, while the European heads of government resisted signing to that bit of humanitarian common sense and only spoke in support of Israel...
​..Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, the Dutch justice minister, who is the front-runner candidate in the forthcoming elections to replace Mark Rutte as prime minister, warned that the Israel-Hamas war poses a threat to Europe because it is widening cleavages in society. She noted that “…it will get translated to our societies as well.”
​  Clearly the lady hasn’t a clue as to the real external threats to Europe that lie immediately ahead, and no doubt she is not alone among European leaders in this willful ignorance. Should the Israelis proceed with a ground invasion, the Arab neighbors may respond in a manner that follows the U.S. example, namely they will not participate militarily in the conflict but will impose economic sanctions against the European Union for its one-sided approach and for turning a blind eye to the acts of genocide that Israel is now committing against the Palestinian people in Gaza...
..Qatar has already warned Germany that it stands ready to cut off further shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe...​ How long will it be before the oil producers of the region declare an embargo on Europe for its stance...?​  

​  Arab, European leaders divided over Gaza crisis following Egypt summit
​  International leaders gathered at a summit in Cairo on Saturday to discuss solutions to the ongoing war between the Hamas-led Palestinian resistance and Israel, but failed to come to an agreement, as the divide between Arab and European leaders regarding Israel's bombing of Gaza grows.
​  In his opening remarks, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi invited leaders to agree to a road map to end the “humanitarian catastrophe” in the Gaza Strip and revive peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. The road map’s goals included the delivery of aid to Gaza and agreeing to a ceasefire, followed by negotiations leading to a two-state solution, he said...
..“The message the Arab world is hearing is loud and clear,” King Abdullah II of Jordan said during his speech. “Palestinian lives matter less than Israeli ones. Our lives matter less than other lives. The application of international law is optional, and human rights have boundaries — they stop at borders, they stop at races and they stop at religions.”
“Anywhere else, attacking civilian infrastructure and deliberately starving an entire population of food, water and basic necessities would be condemned,” King Abdullah said. “Accountability would be enforced.”
..No Israeli or senior US leader attended the summit, meaning no agreement to end the violence was possible.
​  Arab leaders fear threats issued by Israeli officials to drive Gaza’s 2.3 million residents into Egypt, in a repeat of the 1948 Nakba.​  
("Genocide", by definition.)
That year, Zionist militias used rape and massacre as tools to expel 750,000 Palestinians from their homes and make them refugees in neighboring countries, the West Bank, and Gaza. This allowed the Zionist militias to conquer the land needed to create a new state, Israel, with a majority Jewish population.
​  Egyptian President Sisi said his country opposed the displacement of Palestinians into Egypt's largely desert Sinai region, adding the only solution was an independent Palestinian state.
​  Jordan, home to many Palestinian refugees expelled during the Nakba and their descendants, also fears Israel will use the conflict with Hamas to expel Palestinians en masse from the occupied West Bank.
​  King Abdullah said forced displacement "is a war crime 
("genocide") according to international law, and a red line for all of us."

​  Aleks at Black Mountain Analysis has been getting flak from "both sides" about his analytical, non-partisan assessments of the current Mideast war. I appreciate his work and perseverance-under-fire. He has a lot of contextual and in depth analysis here. The Arap countries and Iran have been quietly preparing for an existential crisis in Israel/Palestine for decades, preparing broadly and deeply. Iran's AlQuds force is dedicated to this "grassroots" work. Iran does not need to send an army overland to Israel/Palestine.
​  What can the United States do in the Middle East to help Israel? Apart from logistical support, absolutely nothing. And here is why: The United States has tens of thousands of soldiers in the Area. Some In previously-friendly states like Jordan and Saudia Arabia. Some in occupying functions like Syria and Iraq. There are almost no air defenses since the operations planning didn’t expect a large-scale conventional war against it in the Middle East. Why? Because divide and conquer was working fine. As long as the United States kept all Arabas fighting each other, there was no danger for the US to prepare itself for a big regional war against itself.
​  This ended with the reconciliation efforts by Russia, China, and Iran. Now all states are united (partly overtly and partly covertly) against the United States. It went down too fast.
​  The United States absolutely can’t assist Israel militarily in the region. It doesn’t have the strength/military power to do that. Don’t get me wrong. The US Army would still wipe the floor with Iran and all other Arab powers of the region combined. But only if it would concentrate its power and logistics on this region. Which it can’t.

​John Helmer has a long and detailed strategic assessment from several viewpoints. Did you know that the Chinese Navy is shielding Iran?
​  US Afghanistan War veteran: “Suppose Israel and the US understand they are facing an existential survival future in which they must combat swarm attacks on three or four fronts — Gaza/Hamas, North/Hezbollah, Golan/Syria/Iran, and West Bank/Jordan, and they calculate the Arabs have at least a 30 to 60–day arms supply in stock, do they calculate they can withstand a multi-front offensive for enough time, resupplied by air from the US? If they calculate that they can withstand a 30-day multi-directional swarm, they must understand that, at a minimum, Israel’s infrastructure and economy will be ruined. In a scenario like that, even if they ‘win’, they lose. In terms of airlifting and shipping supplies, we’ve already seen that the Arabs can hit Israeli military and civilian airfields, airports and seaports. Defending Israeli infrastructure with their air defence capability is the main mission of the strike groups the US is deploying in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Red Sea.
​  Western societies like Israel cannot function without solid, reliable, electrical power and communications services. We can be certain that power generation, transmission and distribution will be targeted by the Arabs non-stop. The cell towers and central communications centres will be too.”​ ...
​..Moscow source​:  “When does the threat to Israel become so dire, they go nuclear, and when they do, against what targets will they fire – Hamas, Beirut, Damascus, Teheran?*  The US won’t accept a Palestinian state so the only option left for the Palestinians, Arabs, Iranians, possibly Turks is to fight with this new kind of warfare whose objective is to cut into the flesh and bones of the Israeli adversary, and make life in that state unviable. Without a Palestinian homeland, all of Israel and the Arab territories become a battlefield. The IDF options then shrink to two – carpet bombing and mass killing of the civilian population centres on all fronts at once. If that isn’t sustainable or effective for the Israeli-American purpose, then option 2 is to attack Lebanon, Syria and Iran to stop the flow of reinforcements. But that’s regional war, and it can only be conducted by the Israelis with full US military participation. This becomes nuclear very quickly because President Putin has already placed the Kinzhal missiles in range of the US carrier fleet in the eastern Mediterranean, and the Chinese have installed their screen to protect Iran. It’s obvious that the race hatred policies of Biden and Netanyahu, and their belief that God has chosen them both as destroyers for their people, lead to the final, nuclear weapons solution. The Russians and Chinese can maximise their limited military projection by deterring, or if need be pre-empting a nuclear attack on the Arab cities or Teheran. For this to work, the Russians and the Chinese need to say more – loudly so there’s no mistaking what they mean.”

​  Israeli minister threatens to ‘wipe Iran off the face of the Earth’​  (There are potentially more fronts than this gentleman is aware of.)
​  Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat said on Sunday that the Israeli forces would “eliminate” Hezbollah and target Iran if the Palestinian militants open up a “northern front.”
​  “The plan of Iran is to attack Israel on all fronts. If we find they intend to target Israel, we will not just retaliate to those fronts, but we will go to the head of the snake, which is Iran.”

​Hundreds of billions of dollars in future revenue off the shore of Gaza, which fields are currently being commandeered by Israel ...
War and Natural Gas: The Israeli Invasion and Gaza’s Offshore Gas Fields

​  South of Gaza Strip pounded by air strikes as civilians seek refuge​   (​Genocidal War Crimes)
  Israeli air attacks continue to pound the Gaza Strip. On Saturday night, strikes hit a popular cafe in (the "safe" south) Khan Younis and a restaurant in a bustling market area as people were buying food, leaving several casualties.
​  Over the last 24 hours, the bombardment has intensified. The majority of casualties – along with those injured and brought to hospitals – are civilians, with a significant number of them being children and women.
​  Israel has warned more than one million residents of the northern part of Gaza to move south for their safety, and the United Nations says more than half the enclave’s population is now internally displaced.
​  Hundreds of thousands of civilians are believed to be trapped in and around Gaza City in the north.

​  200 trucks per day, with working electricity, water and gas was the baseline bare-minimum in the open-air-prison of 2.3 million native inhabitants of Palestine.
17 more trucks with humanitarian aid enter Gaza Strip from Egypt via Rahaf crossing
According to the Al-Qahera al-Ihbariya, three of the truck​s were sent by the Egyptian Red Crescent Society

Israel ‘incapacitates’ Syria’s main airports – state media
The aerial strike left one airport worker dead in Damascus, while the Aleppo airport is also out of service after the attack

​  Hezbollah’s military wing said on Sunday it has attacked Israeli positions in Al-Bayad and Al-Malikkiya on Lebanon’s southern border.
According to a Hezbollah statement posted on its Telegram channel, anti-tank missiles were used. A thick plum of smoke was seen in Al-Bayad.

​  Earlier, a strike was delivered on an Israeli command and observation post in Yiftah. In response, Israel opened tank fire at the area near Blid in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah said earlier in the day that three Shia fighters had been killed in an Israeli attack on southern Lebanese areas. In all, twenty-nine people, including three civilians and one cameraman have been killed over 14 days.

​  Why America Is Out of Ammunition​ , Matt Stoller
​  Why can't the Pentagon get weapons firms to ramp up production? A new report shows the military doesn't track who owns its contractors, and has just two people looking at mergers in the defense base.
​  Defense is big business, and since the end of the Cold War, the government has allowed Wall Street to determine who owns, builds, and profits from defense spending.
The consequences, as with much of our economic machinery, are predictable. Higher prices, worse quality, lower output. Wall Street and private equity firms prioritize cash out first, and that means a once functioning and nimble industrial base now produces more grift than anything else. As Lucas Kunce and I wrote for the American Conservative in 2019, the U.S. simply can’t build or get the equipment it needs.

​  (retired) IDF General Reveals Hideous Truth: "We have lost the ability to field an effective army . . ."
​  General Yitzhak Brick went even farther.  He says "The current situation of the land forces is tragic, they are not ready for war. Emergency supplies are not available, exercises have stopped and the battalions have not trained in years. There is also no weapons training and education, and the army is not capable of carrying out an attack."
​  Brick added that Israel’s ground forces and reserve system have been constantly ignored: “We have lost the ability to field an effective army and have become a one-dimensional aerial power that cannot win a war on its own.”
​  In his view, Israel’s ground forces are not ready for war. The warning follows a series of polls showing that a large portion of Israeli citizens have lost faith in their country’s future.

​Bibi might have to stay long enough to take all of the blame.   Netanyahu Under Fire as Former Leaders Demand His Resignation Amid Crisis

Israeli premier accused of destroying evidence to avoid responsibility for Hamas attack
In letter to attorney general, Israel’s Democracy Movement says Netanyahu has also been obstructing any future investigative committees

​  ("Married" to Bibi) Western leaders lining up with the Israeli regime in its genocidal barbarity are fully complicit in that genocide.
​  U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as Britain’s Rishi Sunak, Germany’s Olaf Scholz and the European Union chief Ursula Von Der Leyen, are among the Western leaders who have blood dripping from their hands.
​  They talk about Israel’s “right to self-defense” while the Israeli military pulverizes Gaza with indiscriminate air strikes and shoots Palestinians dead in the ghettoes of the West Bank. The Palestinian people in both enclaves are being targeted with genocidal ferocity as Israeli leaders denigrate them as “human animals”.
​  In Gaza for the past two weeks, a population of 2.3 million has been held under total siege without water, food or electricity. Nowhere is safe in the coastal area as U.S. and UK-supplied Israeli bombs rain down on homes, refugee centers, hospitals, schools, churches and mosques.

EU staff members express fury over von der Leyen stance on Israel-Hamas conflict
Letter with 842 signatures accuses European Commission of giving ‘a free hand to the acceleration and the legitimacy of a war crime’ in Gaza

​  Gilbert Doctorow observes more complete censorship of alternative viewpoints in the EU than in the US, and thanks Donald Trump for that.
​  It is not in the least surprising that BLM have come out in support of the Gaza Palestinians, for reasons that go back to the Black Panthers. What they are calling for is an immediate cease-fire, urgent delivery of medical supplies, water, fuel, food into Gaza ramped up to at least the pre-October 7th rate of 200 trucks per day.  American authorities are forced to accept the demonstrations of BLM in favor of the Palestinians lest all hell break loose in cities across the country.
​  I think of yesterday’s comments to the The Financial Times by the leading candidate to replace Mark Rutte as prime minister of The Netherlands, the current justice minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, on the dangers that the Hamas-Israel war poses for Europe, namely that cleavages in our society will open up. Regrettably, that is the mindset of an authoritarian if not purely fascist politician.  When everyone is perfectly aligned and there are no nay-sayers tolerated, then freedom is dead.

  The IDF is testing Hamas' defenses. Israeli soldier killed during ground raid in Gaza, Israel’s army says
​  Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, claims to have pushed Israeli forces back into Israel during the raid.​ 
The Israeli military has said one of its soldiers was killed by an anti-tank missile reportedly shot by the Palestinian armed group Hamas during a raid into the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Army.
​  Three other soldiers were injured in the raid on Sunday, said the statement that came as the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, announced on its Telegram account that it had pushed Israeli forces back into Israel.
​  One Israeli soldier was killed, while “one was moderately injured, and two were lightly injured as a result of an anti-tank missile”, the Israeli military said.
The military said the purpose of the raid was to locate Hamas captives in Gaza’s Khan Younis area and to “thwart terrorist infrastructure”.

  ​This is completely undefined, yet nobody likes the idea at all. What comes to my mind is a regional agreement where a Palestinian state with firm national borders is assured, so that Israel and Palestine are both safe states, with equal rights for all minorities within each state. No Jewish-only state, and no Islam-only state. 
​  US and Israel mulling interim government in Gaza

US forced Ukraine to reject peace with Russia – ex-German chancellor​  (further confirmation)
Gerhard Schroeder has claimed that Washington blocked Kiev from a March 2022 settlement that could have ended the bloodshed

US conducts nuclear test in Nevada hours after Russian move to revoke global test ban
The test came hours after Russian lawmakers said they plan to revoke the ratification of a global nuclear test ban treaty

​Simplicius , Modern warfare is different. Battle for Avdeevka - Close Study

​  New Zealand is a Crime Scene: In one clinic, in one day 30 people were covid injected and all 30 have died
​  Before the recently held elections, Gunn was contacted by a whistle-blower and given documentation showing that tens of thousands of New Zealanders’ deaths are linked to the injections. “This is just one of the sites recording this type of information in New Zealand,” she said. “We don’t know how many further databases like this are in the country,” she added.

​  Texas high school student collapses and dies after winning a cross-country race, the latest in a string of young athletes dying during competition
​  The reporter enumerates the “string of young athletes dying during competition,” but seems mystified as to what could be causing the increased incidence of sudden and unexpected deaths among young athletes—a conspicuous trend that began around mid 2021.

​  Mortality Rates per 100k shockingly reveal Four-Dose COVID-19 Vaccinated Teens & Young Adults are up to 318% more likely to Die than the Unvaccinated according to quietly published Government Report
​  In a recent dataset released by the UK Government’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), a surprising pattern has emerged regarding mortality rates per 100,000 in teenagers and young adults, sparking a wave of questions and calls for further investigation from public health experts.

​Steve Kirsch on the known carcinogenic DNA sequence in the Pfizer-shots: 
Video interview with 3 experts reveals evidence that the drug companies knew about the SV40 promoter, yet decided to conceal it from the regulators

4 dead, 2 critically injured in New York City fire caused by lithium-ion batteries, e-bikes​  (Get a regular bike suited ​and fitted to your body​, and ride it daily.)
The store was located on the first floor of the building, while residential apartments were on the floors above.

S​toring Energy Safely (Jenny pictured with eggplants storing food calories)

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