Becoming Disoriented,
Russo-Ukrainian War: Schrodinger’s Offensive , Big Serge
A ramble about force design, Moldova, and a fortress on the steppe
Amid the grand pronouncements of political leadership and endless fretting over big arrows drawn on the map, it does us well to remember that the fate of the world is built on the accumulated efforts of these brave individual soldiers. Indifferent to the endless bloviation about war aims and the inane chattering about “the rules based international order”, multipolarity, and mundane geopolitical interests, events on the ground are carried forward by men whose war aims are very simple indeed. On the snow covered Pontic steppes around Ugledar, what the warrior desires more than anything is not to be shot...
..The name Transnistria is actually a very useful and descriptive one. A derivative of “Trans-Dniester” - it refers very literally to a strip of land between the Dniester River and the Moldovan Border, which seceded from Moldova in 1990 and declared an ongoing commitment to the USSR. A rather peculiar question then arises - is Transnistria a loyalist or a separatist entity? From the point of view of Moscow, the Transnistrian authorities are loyalists who refused to join the Moldovan exit from the USSR. For Moldovans, of course, the Transnistrians are separatists...
..The name Transnistria is actually a very useful and descriptive one. A derivative of “Trans-Dniester” - it refers very literally to a strip of land between the Dniester River and the Moldovan Border, which seceded from Moldova in 1990 and declared an ongoing commitment to the USSR. A rather peculiar question then arises - is Transnistria a loyalist or a separatist entity? From the point of view of Moscow, the Transnistrian authorities are loyalists who refused to join the Moldovan exit from the USSR. For Moldovans, of course, the Transnistrians are separatists...
..The verdict on Transnistria is that it punches above its weight class and is probably a much tougher nut to crack than one would initially assume, but it is isolated and would be unable to resist a determined Ukrainian attack under normal circumstances, though at this point it’s unclear what sort of resources Kiev could dedicate to what would amount to an armed raid to steal ammunition...
..Moldova almost certainly wants to maintain its neutrality (which is codified in the country’s constitution and is the reason the country is not a NATO member) and is thus highly unlikely to greenlight a Ukrainian move into Transnistria in the absence of some prior Russian provocation.
Ultimately, the only party that would seem to benefit from widening the conflict into the Moldovan space would be Ukraine, both because it covets the Cobasna depot and because widening the conflict is generally a Ukrainian goal - in their crude calculation, any escalation that raises the probability of direct western intervention is beneficial. Moldova, of course, is not a NATO member, but no doubt Ukraine would like to set off a spiraling expansion of the theater and see if, say, Romania could be dragged in. All that being said, Kiev should probably expect the Cobasna depot to simply be detonated the moment they move on it, making the entire scheme an ill-conceived waste of resources...
..I have been fairly consistent from the beginning in that I expect the war in Ukraine to be fought to its conclusion and remain a contained conventional conflict - that is to say, I neither expect nuclear weapons usage nor additional belligerents to enter the war, be it Belarus, Poland, Moldova, or NATO proper. I believe we’ve already seen the qualitative extent of outside involvement in the war - NATO providing training, ISR, weaponry, maintenance, and sustainment, Belarus being used for Russian deployments, and Russian allies like China and Iran providing mainly standoff weaponry. For now, none of the developments around Transnistria seem to credibly upset this calculus. For now, we wait and see if Ukrainian ammunition shortages become so dire that they simply can’t resist taking a pass at the Cobasna depot...
..Because Ukraine relies on foreign assistance to continue its war, it must constantly be in a performative mode and under pressure to deliver visible successes. This is why it is anticipated that Ukraine will use the vehicles currently being delivered to launch a counteroffensive against the land bridge to Crimea. It really has no choice in the matter. In contrast, Russia is under no intense time pressure except that which it imposes on itself, and this freedom of action gives it the luxury (so long as battlefield events do not interrupt it) of sorting out an organizational overhaul and resisting the temptation to move prematurely.
Of course it would be much better not to have organizational problems in the first place, but discretion remains the better part of valor. And for now, there is no great hurry, for the entire front has become a death pit which is absorbing Ukrainian manpower and equipment and sapping the Ukrainians of reserves and initiative...
..In the forest around the Donets, on the steppe at Ugledar, and in the burning death trap at Bakhmut, words matter little. Indeed, the destructive power now at work is so great that even the deeds of the individual can do little to alter the course of the battle - and yet on both sides, men of superior will continue to execute their duties, demonstrating discipline and bravery in the face of the constant possibility of death. Such men of iron are perhaps beyond the understanding of postmodern cultures, but it is they who will determine the fate of Ukraine and Russia.
..Moldova almost certainly wants to maintain its neutrality (which is codified in the country’s constitution and is the reason the country is not a NATO member) and is thus highly unlikely to greenlight a Ukrainian move into Transnistria in the absence of some prior Russian provocation.
Ultimately, the only party that would seem to benefit from widening the conflict into the Moldovan space would be Ukraine, both because it covets the Cobasna depot and because widening the conflict is generally a Ukrainian goal - in their crude calculation, any escalation that raises the probability of direct western intervention is beneficial. Moldova, of course, is not a NATO member, but no doubt Ukraine would like to set off a spiraling expansion of the theater and see if, say, Romania could be dragged in. All that being said, Kiev should probably expect the Cobasna depot to simply be detonated the moment they move on it, making the entire scheme an ill-conceived waste of resources...
..I have been fairly consistent from the beginning in that I expect the war in Ukraine to be fought to its conclusion and remain a contained conventional conflict - that is to say, I neither expect nuclear weapons usage nor additional belligerents to enter the war, be it Belarus, Poland, Moldova, or NATO proper. I believe we’ve already seen the qualitative extent of outside involvement in the war - NATO providing training, ISR, weaponry, maintenance, and sustainment, Belarus being used for Russian deployments, and Russian allies like China and Iran providing mainly standoff weaponry. For now, none of the developments around Transnistria seem to credibly upset this calculus. For now, we wait and see if Ukrainian ammunition shortages become so dire that they simply can’t resist taking a pass at the Cobasna depot...
..Because Ukraine relies on foreign assistance to continue its war, it must constantly be in a performative mode and under pressure to deliver visible successes. This is why it is anticipated that Ukraine will use the vehicles currently being delivered to launch a counteroffensive against the land bridge to Crimea. It really has no choice in the matter. In contrast, Russia is under no intense time pressure except that which it imposes on itself, and this freedom of action gives it the luxury (so long as battlefield events do not interrupt it) of sorting out an organizational overhaul and resisting the temptation to move prematurely.
Of course it would be much better not to have organizational problems in the first place, but discretion remains the better part of valor. And for now, there is no great hurry, for the entire front has become a death pit which is absorbing Ukrainian manpower and equipment and sapping the Ukrainians of reserves and initiative...
..In the forest around the Donets, on the steppe at Ugledar, and in the burning death trap at Bakhmut, words matter little. Indeed, the destructive power now at work is so great that even the deeds of the individual can do little to alter the course of the battle - and yet on both sides, men of superior will continue to execute their duties, demonstrating discipline and bravery in the face of the constant possibility of death. Such men of iron are perhaps beyond the understanding of postmodern cultures, but it is they who will determine the fate of Ukraine and Russia.
Russia's Third Warning: Any aggressive action in Transnistria will be considered as an attack on Russia. (Google translate)
China is preparing to deliver PLZ-05 and MLRS AR1A artillery systems to Russia. These are Chinese-manufactured copies of established Russian gun and rocket artillery, which will not be distinguishable from Russian made pieces in the field. (Google translate)
I think it has already begun...
The stage is set for Hybrid World War III , Pepe Escobar (heavily edited for clarity)For years some of us have been showing how the emerging multipolar world is defined – but goes way beyond – high speed interconnectivity, physical and geoeconomic. Now, as we reach the next stage, it’s as if Putin and Xi Jinping, each in their own way, are conceptualizing the two key civilizational vectors of multipolarity. That’s the deeper meaning of the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership, invisible to the naked eye...
..China may have a little more latitude than Russia, as the Middle Kingdom is not – yet – under the same existential pressure Russia has been put under.
Whatever happens next geopolitically, Russia is at heart a – giant – obstacle on the warmongering path of the Hegemon: the ultimate target is top “threat” China.
Putin’s ability to size up our extremely delicate geopolitical moment – via a dose of highly concentrated, undiluted realism – is something to behold...
..NATO mercenaries as well as your junk hardware are legitimate targets.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, now more than ever relishing his “unplugged” status, made it all very clear: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.”
And the message is even more acute because it represents the – public – cue to the Chinese leadership at the Zhongnahhai to understand: whatever happens next, this is the Kremlin’s unmovable official position...
..Perfectly in tandem with Putin’s address, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs chose the geopolitical/existential moment to finally take the gloves off, with a flourish: enter the US Hegemony and its Perils essay cum report, which became an instant massive hit across Chinese media, examined with relish all across East Asia.
This blistering enumeration of all the Hegemon’s lethal follies, for decades, constitutes a point of no return for trademark Chinese diplomacy, so far characterized by passivity, ambivalence, actual restraint and extreme politeness...
..Scholar Quan Le notes that this document may be regarded as the traditional form – but now filled with contemporary wording – the Chinese Sovereigns used in their millenary past before going to war.
It is in fact an axio-epistemo-political proclamation justifying a serious war, which in the Chinese universe means a war ordained by a Higher Power capable of restoring Justice & Harmony in a troubled Universe.
After the proclamation the warriors are equipped to strike mercilessly at the entity judged to be troubling the Harmony of the Universe...
..So here we are. You want Hybrid War? We will return the favor.
Back to the Wolfowitz Doctrine...
..Everyone remembers the Wolfowitz doctrine – which was essentially a tawdry, pedestrian rehash of Brzezinski: to keep permanent US hegemony it was primordial to pre-empt the emergence of any potential competitor...
..Russia is a master of riddles and China is a master of paradox, their strategists are now working full time on how to return all strands of Hybrid War against the Hegemon. One thing is certain: unlike boastful Americans, they won’t outline any breakthroughs until they are already in effect. https://thesaker.is/the-stage-is-set-for-hybrid-world-war-iii/
..Among the people Americans were expected to hate was Martin Luther King, not only because he was believed to be a Red but also because he had the audacity to point out that the U.S. government had become the greatest purveyor of violence in the world. They hated him for that, just as they hated Mohammad Ali, who dared to question their war against the Reds in Vietnam. That’s why they targeted both men for destruction.
In the midst of all this anti-Russia and anti-China hostility stepped President John F. Kennedy. He had had enough of all this hostility. He recognized it as a destructive and highly dangerous mindset that the Pentagon and the CIA had inculcated in the American people.
Kennedy realized that it was that mindset that had brought the world to the brink of all-out, life-destroying nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. He also came to the realization that if the Pentagon and the CIA had not been hell-bent on illegally invading Cuba, there would never have been a Cuban Missile Crisis...
..Kennedy shows up at American University and initiates a surprise attack on the Pentagon and the CIA. He declared an end to the deep anti-Soviet hostility that the Pentagon and the CIA had inculcated in the American people. He called for peaceful and friendly coexistence with the Soviet Union and the rest of the communist world. With a slap across the faces of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he declared, “What kind of a peace do I mean? What kind of a peace do we seek? Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war.” [Read speech and excerpts at link below.] ... In the midst of all this anti-Russia and anti-China hostility stepped President John F. Kennedy. He had had enough of all this hostility. He recognized it as a destructive and highly dangerous mindset that the Pentagon and the CIA had inculcated in the American people.
Kennedy realized that it was that mindset that had brought the world to the brink of all-out, life-destroying nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. He also came to the realization that if the Pentagon and the CIA had not been hell-bent on illegally invading Cuba, there would never have been a Cuban Missile Crisis...
..Kennedy’s Peace Speech, combined with his resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which enraged the Pentagon and the CIA, combined with his support of what was believed to be a domestic communist front, sealed his fate. Several months later, they took him out, on the grounds of protecting “national security,” just as they targeted foreign leaders on the same basis. No one in America — and especially not a U.S. president — is permitted to embrace what are considered to be heretical thoughts and policies regarding Russia and China. The deep anti-Russia and anti-China hostility that the Pentagon and the CIA inculcate in the American people has become a permanent part of American life.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban says no one should “get away” with attacking Europe’s energy infrastructure
“The blowing up of the Nord Stream was a simple act of terrorism,” Orban said in a speech to parliament in Budapest.
"What we need to know is, if they did it in the north just to stop the Russian gas coming to Europe … then they could do it in the south as well."
Orban said that Hungary, together with neighboring Serbia, must “make clear that if this were to happen, it would not be easy to get away with, like they are doing now with the Nord Stream explosions.”
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto this week called for the UN to investigate the “scandalous” attack on the pipelines. Budapest wants to know “who committed it and why,” the minister said.
"What we need to know is, if they did it in the north just to stop the Russian gas coming to Europe … then they could do it in the south as well."
Orban said that Hungary, together with neighboring Serbia, must “make clear that if this were to happen, it would not be easy to get away with, like they are doing now with the Nord Stream explosions.”
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto this week called for the UN to investigate the “scandalous” attack on the pipelines. Budapest wants to know “who committed it and why,” the minister said.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/largest-us-grid-supplier-warns-of-an-energy-shortage-due-to-undeliverable-mandates
“Heart screening was available and conducted using multifunction cardiogram technology, or MCG, provided by HeartCARE Corp”
“we had the opportunity to perform Multifunction Cardiogram™ screens on a variety of participants…over half of those tested (16 of 30 people) (53%) had positive markers for myocarditis. Two of these were active duty US Military pilots.“
Is there a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality
Amyloidogenic proteins in the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 proteomes
Don't test, don't tell. "Back to your homes and work, everybody". "We found nothing bad" (when we didn't look for dioxin, etc.)
East Palestine Plants Suspend Operations as Workers Get SickIt's a rhetorical question at this point, isn't it? Thanks Jeremy.
Cardiac Testing at Washington Public Event Found 53% Myocarditis Rate, Including Two Active Duty US Military Pilots. What Does It Mean?
“Nearly 500 people from Washington, Oregon and Idaho gathered at the Wenatchee Convention Center in Washington State on Saturday, January 28 to hear and share stories of…injuries and deaths from COVID shots and hospital protocols; careers upended and families torn apart by mandates; and numerous harms from closures of schools, businesses and churches.” “Heart screening was available and conducted using multifunction cardiogram technology, or MCG, provided by HeartCARE Corp”
“we had the opportunity to perform Multifunction Cardiogram™ screens on a variety of participants…over half of those tested (16 of 30 people) (53%) had positive markers for myocarditis. Two of these were active duty US Military pilots.“
Is there a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality
We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality, i.e., mortality higher than before the pandemic. Analyses of 31 countries weighted by population size show that all-cause mortality during the first nine months of 2022 increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake; a one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105 percent (95% CI, 0.075-0.134). When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy.
The phenomenon of protein aggregation is associated with a wide range of human diseases. Our knowledge of the aggregation behaviour of viral proteins, however, is still rather limited. Here, we investigated this behaviour in the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 proteomes. An initial analysis using a panel of sequence-based predictors suggested the presence of multiple aggregation-prone regions (APRs) in these proteomes and revealed a strong aggregation propensity in some SARS-CoV-2 proteins. We then studied the in vitro aggregation of predicted aggregation-prone SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 proteins and protein regions, including the signal sequence peptide and fusion peptides 1 and 2 of the spike protein, a peptide from the NSP6 protein, and the ORF10 and NSP11 proteins. Our results show that these peptides and proteins can form amyloid aggregates. We used circular dichroism spectroscopy to reveal the presence of β-sheet rich cores in aggregates and X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy to confirm the formation of amyloid structures. Furthermore, we demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 NSP11 aggregates are toxic to mammalian cell cultures. These results motivate further studies about the possible role of aggregation of SARS proteins in protein misfolding diseases and other human conditions.
Sasha Latypova asked Microsoft Bing's chatbot about suing big pharma under the false claims act.
"I'm trying to sue a large pharmaceutical company under the False Claims acts for making a dangerous medicine. The defendant says that because the product was purchased by the government under Other Transaction Authority, the pharmaceutical company did not need to make a safe product. What are my options?" Bing AI: Sorry, it looks like I need to chat about something else. Click “New topic,” please! ...
Sasha goes on to detail her discussion of legal reasoning and strategy with a reader, which is very illuminating.
There is a legal approach to prosecuting war-crimes against humanity, and it is explained here. (Serious comments section this time.)
My 3 posts of 2/27/23 comprise the content that I will be presenting this Saturday in the CHD onlne symposium below.
I am sad to say that growing vegetables is "fighting back" in this context. It just seems like self-defense to me.
The Attack on Food Symposium + Solutions to Fight BackFocusing On Survival (pictured completing a laundry room cabinet I was making for Jenny)
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