Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Informed Dissent

 Minding the Gap,

  Big Serge has an assessment of the leaked DoD briefing papers, which do appear to be real, though one site photo-shopped some numbers  about Russian casualties before re-posting the photographs of the folded and unfolded papers. 
  Some Points: The US intel on Russian troop movements and locations is better by far than the US intel on Ukrainian troops, and equipment.
The information on Ukrainian brigade formation for the spring offensive is that they are mostly untrained, and so grossly under-supplied with tanks, artillery and other combat vehicles as to be 1/2 brigades at best, and unfamiliar with their new western tanks and other weapons.
Ukraine fires 1000 artillery shells per day. That's all that is being supplied by NATO. There is no stockpile. 
Russia fires 20,000 artillery shells per day.
Ukrainian air defenses are Soviet era, mostly depleted, and the new western air defenses are already used-up. There are no replacements.
If a spring offensive is mounted by Ukraine, presumably in May, it will expend the equipment on hand. The original equipment from before the war has mostly been expended already. Re-supply will be problematic politically for the west, and the manufacturing capacity is non-existent.
  Yet the leak as an act of subterfuge or treason is less significant than what the documents show. They show a conspicuous lack of alertness or long-range planning on the part of the Pentagon. American leadership seemingly has to contend with Ukraine as a black hole which sucks in money and munitions and gives nothing back; there is no strong sense of Ukrainian frontline strength, losses, or planning, and the Pentagon seems to lack any sort of independent intelligence streams.
​  ​Meanwhile, the material situation in Ukraine is degrading rapidly. Their artillery arm is running on fumes, with a miniscule shell ration and no reserve stocks to speak of, fed by a trickle of deliveries from the USA. Air defense is similarly worn thin, and the plan to repair this crucial umbrella threatens to quickly become vampiric and drain NATO interceptor stocks. The entire strategic logic of Ukraine has reversed. Rather than becoming a cheap way to drain the Russian military, NATO finds itself drawing down its own stocks to prop up the hemorrhaging Ukrainian state, with no clear endgame in sight. The proxy has become a parasite.
​  ​There does not seem to be any long term plan to sustain Ukraine’s war. The Pentagon’s procurement plans do not indicate any real intent to ramp up production of key systems. For FY2024, they have ordered a modest 5,016 GMLRS - the missiles launched by the famous HIMARS system. Ukraine has already fired nearly 10,000 GMLRS, making this yet another system where Ukrainian expenditures vastly exceed supply.
​  ​To salvage the situation, Kiev must place its hopes on one desperate dice roll with a mechanized attack package comprised of half-strength brigades wielding a disparate inventory of different vehicles and systems. This Frankenstein’s monster of armies - sewn together with a bevy of different tanks, IFVs, APCs, and artillery systems drawn from all corners of the NATO alliance, will likely be asked to smash through the heavily fortified and robustly manned Russian lines in the south, where it will be pulverized.

​ "Western interests" seek to hold the EU, US, UK and other English speaking countries together as an economic bloc, while maintaining neo colonial control over Latin America and Africa​, through the $US being the big financial club where everybody invests and borrows. I have recently seen several detailed articles which explain the depth of $US markets, and how there is no other option open to global investors, except if they accept a lot of constraints and fewer options. This is because the $US markets, particularly in the US, have allowed the vast purchase of American "assets", mostly debt and property, to be bought by foreign interests, and without "capital controls", which China maintains, to limit the flow of money across borders.
  The appeal of defaulting on $US denominated debt, or at least writing-it-down, is not mentioned in these articles. New arrangements would facilitate that, if countries transferred trade into a BRICS or Shanghai Cooperation Organization format without penalty.
  The argument is basically that "things are like this so they can't change". 
  The Yuan is not set up to take on global reserve currency status, but a global reserve currency is not necessary the way it was in 1945, because all currencies float against each other, gold and oil, tracked by computers. The Yuan/Renminbi is already the main foreign currency in Russia, and many bilateral trade deals with Yuan/Renminbi are being signed and implemented, including with France. 
  We are aware of the street-democracy taking place in France, against the autocratic pension age change from 62 to 64, by Rothschild Banking alumnis Macron. However, BlackRock managing French pensions, by "investing" them in high risk assets it needed to unload before they collapsed in value, is not announced. The cookie jar is full of bad IOUs, and the French know it. French popular aversion to the risks and costs of NATO membership is also very high. The French do not want to fund war in Ukraine, nor Taiwan, and are averse to those risks.
  Macron, loathed in France for being loyal to banking/finance, not the people, decreed the broadly unpopular delay in pension age because the pension system is stressed financially already. Reducing NATO bills, favorable trade deals with China, and being the first major EU country to break ranks from the self-harming sanctions against Russia, would all benefit French workers and the French economy, and would forestall failure of the French pension system.
  Macron represents the Rothschild banking interest which recently employed him and brought him to "power". It is fair to assume that his siding with China, against US/NATO and the common EU bloc, represents a diversification of Rothschild interests away from the $US only-game-in-town financial bloc. Rothschild interests are preparing for global trade and finance multipolarity.

  Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.
​  ​Speaking with POLITICO and two French journalists after spending around six hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his trip, Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.”​  
(Hmmm, Russia, US and China are already "superpowers", right?)

​Katherine Watt, ​  On enforcement mechanisms wielded against non-compliant nation-states​.
  Some national leaders have been assassinated. The most obvious was the President of Tanzania, John Magufuli, killed in March 2021 shortly after he began demonstrating and talking about some of the core frauds supporting the globally-coordinated mass murder and enslavement campaign disguised as a public health emergency.
  Those assassinations, like most assassinations, send a very clear message to other national leaders not to step out of line.
  But the primary enforcement mechanism, as I understand the structure of the global extortion system, is financial.
  National governments that don't comply lose access to international banking systems: transaction processing; loans; manageable interest rates on borrowing; currency stability; aid packages. Everything. The lifeblood of their economies is drained.
  At the top tier, the Bank for International Settlements owners do it, through their control of private central banks and treasury secretaries in each country; through World Bank, IMF, World Trade Organization, and WEF programs; and through BlackRock and similar transnational, parasitic financial/technology firms.
  The same extortion mechanism works on smaller scales, to enforce the compliance of commercial banks, state governments, hospitals, schools, counties, towns, private businesses subject to state licensure, families and individuals, and has been used extensively during the last three years...
..We're currently living through a global demonstration of the extortion/enforcement system, with one salvo fired in 2007-2008 with the Great Financial Crisis, and a second salvo launched in August/Sept. 2019 with the overnight repo rate crisis followed immediately by the falsified "pandemic" as the massive systemic shock pseudo-justifying implementation of long-prepared economic and political centralization plans. (The criminals call it “policy coordination.”)...
...The salvo that started in late summer 2019 is still going on, and poised for an intensification as the dollar is being forced out of its reserve currency status, the injections continue to kill off populations, and sovereign governments continue to be hollowed out through infiltration, corruption, bribery, extortion, blackmail, censorship, propaganda and demoralization.
  Many of those things are very old methods for overthrowing enemy nation-states, repeated throughout history.
  The difference is that for the past century or so, those methods have been used with far greater precision, coordination and durable effects by non-State actors (central banking families) to destroy all of the national governments, countries and populations around the world simultaneously.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. expresses strong disapproval of CBDCs and Digital IDs

Yemeni govt holds talks with Saudi Arabia to end 3-year civil war
​  ​Yemeni government officials have gathered in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, to discuss a comprehensive three-year peace plan to end the country's civil war, a Yemeni diplomat said on Friday.
​  ​The move signals that regional rifts are easing. A permanent ceasefire in Yemen would mark a milestone in stabilizing the Middle East.

​Erdogan needs re-election on May 14. ​This might provide most of Turkey's gas needs for decades. Coming online soon.
Turkey Says Its Black Sea Natural Gas Discoveries Are Worth Over $500 Billion
​  ​Last week, Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) said on Twitter that the installation of the pipes connecting the energy base in the Black Sea to the Sakarya Gas Field Land Facility had been successfully completed. The company said the inauguration of the start of the gas transmission from the field is expected to take place on April 20 in the presence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
​  ​The Sakarya gas field is set to initially produce around 10 million cubic meters per day, before reaching a peak within three years to pump some 40 million cubic meters per day in 2025, Dönmez told CNN Türk.
​  ​The field inauguration could be the beginning of the Turkish plan to become less dependent on imports of natural gas, which account for 99% of consumption at present.

​  ​Belgian Psychologist Steve Van Herreweghe has received a two-year suspension for his statements on social media about The Great Reset and the World Economic Forum...
..Van Herreweghe used his social media platform to voice his concerns about The Great Reset and the World Economic Forum (WEF), which he believes are components of a larger effort to establish a “New World Order.”

​Peter McCullough MD, ​  Fatal Massive Multiorgan Inflammation in a Teenager after COVID-19 Booster
Insights from Autopsy Study Help Explain Thousands of Unexpected Deaths from "Unknown Causes"
​  Who is the next to die after COVID-19 vaccination? This is a question that parents of a 14-year old Japanese girl wished they would have asked before she rolled up her sleeve for her third BNT1262b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine/Pfizer (Comirnaty®) which was not medically necessary nor clinically indicated.

​  "Vaccine" products, which cause human cells to produce and release spike protein for months, are not specifically mentioned, but ...
​  SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Accumulation in the Skull-Meninges-Brain Axis: Potential Implications for Long-Term Neurological Complications in post-COVID-19

Huge Veterans Study: COVID and Flu Vaccines are Useless at Preventing Hospitalization

​  Peter McCullough MD, ​  VIZIR (Viral Infection treatment with oral ZInc: a Randomized controlled trial in COVID-19)
​  ​2022 Omicron Era Trial Found Twice Daily Zinc Reduced Need for ICU or Death
​  ​Ben Abdallah et al from Tunisia recently published the VIZIR trial (viral infection treatment with oral zinc: a randomized controlled trial in COVID-19) which randomized a spectrum of acute COVID-19 patients to zinc 25 mg po bid versus placebo. Zinc has been known for decades to be an inhibitor of RNA-dependent polymerase. There was a 42% reduction in the primary composite of needing ICU admission or death. It is noteworthy, that the two most common companion drugs for zinc, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin were not mentioned anywhere in the paper.

Cynthia Chung, ​ The Curse of Game Theory: Why It’s in Your Self-Interest to Exit the Rules of the Game​  Thanks for the lead, Luc.
 ​We are taught never to question the rules given to us in these game theory scenarios, but to react accordingly to what has been defined to us as a limited set of options in an artificial scenario.
​  ​Perhaps the best indicator to this is, ironically, the very creator of the prisoner’s dilemma, John Nash. Nash had won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1994 for his “landmark” work beginning in the 1950s on game theory...​  
..​In 2007, he was interviewed while still working at Princeton. Here is his very unselfish offering of his “enlightenment” (his words) on game theory after over 50 years of work in the field. Keep in mind he is using the definition of rational behaviour according to game theory, which is defined as a selfish self-interest:
​  ​“I have had some trouble myself on the psychological level; I’ve been in mental hospitals…I realise that what I had said at some time may have overemphasized rationality…And I don’t want to overemphasize rational thinking on the part of humans…Human beings are much more complicated, the human being as a businessman….Human behaviour is not entirely motivated by self-interest of each human…game theory works in terms of self-interest, but…some game theory concepts could be unsound. There is over-dependence on rationality. That is my enlightenment.”

​Not Playing Games (pictured initially preparing Yoakum garden beds 4 years ago)​

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