We all have simplified working models of the world in our minds. We must navigate the world, and none of us can fully comprehend it, so our models must be simpler than reality. Some work better than others to predict the near future.
None of them is very good at predicting the more distant future, except in certain mechanical details, like where the Earth will be in its orbit on any given future date, or the depletion of known mineral reserves, based upon certain rates of consumption. Hubbert's Peak of US oil production, predicted in the mid 1950s, by America's premier oil geologist, happened in 1971, as he predicted. It was easier than it would seem, as he had fairly good data, a slide-rule and knew calculus.
In 1972 a book was published that extended this prediction to the larger global context of human industrial civilization using oil, coal, iron ore and industrial processes, based on their availability and 20th century historical trends, not economics. This book was The Limits To Growth. It predicted a peak of industrial output some time around 2020, based on the famous "Business As Usual" graph here: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/02/03/where-energy-modeling-goes-wrong/
I am certain that the line is drawn in the wrong place. One might easily divide between 2000 and 2050 by our current year to properly place it.
My best estimate, using a pen and paper is that 2023 is at the point where the declining orange line of "services per capita" intersects the brown line of "population". It is evident that life is projected to get harder for people until population begins to decline after 2050. Then it will continue to get harder...
I addressed this in posts:
This model of "business as usual" assumes that society does not intervene in the depletion process, the pollution it creates, or in rates of death and reproduction.
An update a few years ago showed that birth rates and death rates had both declined slightly from predictions, and that population growth was about as predicted.
That reflected changes in family planning and improved global health. We have seen a campaign in recent years to address global-warming, now "climate change", which follows on the successful movements in the 1960s and 1970s to reduce and clean up industrial pollution. By the 1990s industrial pollution was being outsourced from the US to China and Mexico at lower cost, producing higher profits.
The Limits To Growth model is robust over time, particularly so now. Nuclear sub commander Jimmy Carter embraced the predictions, which were easily understood in Arab Oil Embargo years. President Ronald Reagan politically refuted the assertion "that there were any limits on America". That was more popular than Carter's sweater speech about turning down thermostats, but dishonest.
"Happy Days Are Here Again" set the tone for the future. Lies would be used to direct the American people and economy along a chosen path.
My hypothesis, which I keep testing against developing events, is that peak industrial economy, roughly mirrored in net oil consumption and/or CO2 production, peaked in the second half of 2019. This was the same time as COVID was beginning to spread, Event 201 was held in NYC to plan response to the pandemic, and the "Repo-Crisis" was being dealt with by the Federal Reserve stepping in to cover critical overnight lending between the biggest global banks, which could not trust each other until the next morning for some reason.
The financial crisis was managed by "going direct" to massively infuse the biggest banks and financial institutions with $US during the MArch 2020 COVID crash, but also in September 2019. The ongoing systemic financial stress is that economic growth is over and that is how finances are managed. Growth is assumed.
What we keep seeing is government policies which claim to do one thing, but which result in another thing. The thing they result in is economic contraction. Mandating such tight pollution controls for US cars by 2035 as to force 3/4 of them to be electric will not really do that. It is already increasing new car prices, reducing availability, and has doubled used car prices as a result. It is pricing people out of car ownership, which will be rapidly progressive.
Depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level since 1983 provides political cover, but it will soon be part of the kind of oil crisis Americans knew in the 1970s. The solutions will all make that worse. The solutions will all lead to structural reductions in oil and gas by Americans. California wants to outlaw gas stoves and gasoline powered cars to reduce CO2. The electric grid will be the sole limit on that, and it will be a very hard limit. It is easy to constrain electrical generation in California.
This central choke hold on usage, aided by "smart meters" provides centralized choke controls on what were once known as "citizens".
When I look at so many current themes I see reductions in population, reductions in personal wealth, increases in regulations, and climate-mitigation strategies as being aimed at the coercive reduction in "consumption" by humans, still generally referred to as "consumers". Social Security doesn't keep up with inflation? Consume less. Transgender now? Don't have kids. Can't afford a new or used car? It will be impossible in a few years. Still burning fossil fuels? How backward; go all-electric!
Tragically, people who have been injected with mRNA and viral-vector DNA COVID "vaccine" products, which induce their cells to produce spike-protein, and release it into their bloodstreams for months, have increased mortality, not just from COVID, but from various cancers, heart attacks, strokes, autoimmune disease and more. Life insurance companies first noticed this in late 2021, and it continues.
The numbers we have all seen over the years are that a human population of 500 million is a long term sustainable number for planet earth, not relying on fossil fuels for agriculture, transportation, food storage and climate control in our homes.
My hypothesis is that our "owners" are helping us all get there faster, now that the crisis of terminal oil decline is already here. It's a bit of a rush. Nuclear holocaust is the fall-back solution. These offers are from the "good cops" as they see it. Please keep moving forward in your lines...
Robert Kennedy Jr's son Coner secretly went to Ukraine last summer to fight in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, without telling anybody where he was going or what he was doing. He operated drones, then a machine gun in the Kherson area, before returning alive after a couple of months. (I'm sure there is more to that tale.)
"He had just landed," Robert remembers. "He promised that when he came back he would tell me what he was up to."
Robert — who has spoken passionately about his thoughts on the military industrial complex — admits that he and Conor haven't seen eye to eye on the war in Ukraine.
"When he got back, I kind of expressed some — I don't know — whether it's anger or whatever," Robert tells PEOPLE. "He said to me, when he heard maybe a little bit of anger and concern, 'Dad, this is what you taught me to do: to stand up for what I believe in.' And I was like 'Okay.'"
Robert continues: "I'm very proud of this. Of my son. And I knew his views about the war were not aligned with mine. Although he's not naive at all about it. He knows Ukraine has problems and he understands ... that there's corruption. But he doesn't like Putin. He thinks he's a gangster and a bully and he doesn't like bullies."
From Today News Africa, Kennedy Jr. shared his stance on the ongoing war in Ukraine, which he believes is driving the Russians closer to the Chinese and is the worst thing for the United States from a geopolitical standpoint.
Kennedy Jr. stated that while Americans care about the suffering of the underdog, they need to question why the US is in Ukraine. He argued that if the US is there to depose Vladimir Putin, as President Biden has said, or to exhaust the Russians, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has stated, then killing Ukrainians as pawns in a proxy war between two great powers is not justifiable.
Robert Kennedy Jr. gave a presidential candidacy announcement Wednesday night in Boston. Fox News has the most complete and least sneering description of his political platform that I can find. Bobby describes himself as "pro-safe-vaccines", and ha consistently taken that stance. He is against corporate capture of government, and the current complex deep-state-military-industrial-media-AI-complex version of that ("techno-fascism" , anybody?).
Bobby had a long career as an environmental lawyer, getting the Hudson River and others cleaned up by reporting and suing illegal polluters. Mercury poisoning was the transition into his founding of Children's Health Defense, which has been a defender of human rights in the pandemic and vaccine-mandate epoch.
He took a standard anti-pollution position on global warming in the early 200s, as did I. It seemed straightforward, another kind of pollution problem. In recent years I have kept tracking the data, and for the past decade it just does not show progressive warming or loss of polar ice mass. Additionally, I have become aware of more CO2 emissions naturally, as from deep oceanic volcanic rifts, and of what might be overriding climate effects of solar emission cycles and "space weather". Recurrent climate catastrophes have occurred even in written human history, and more extremely in the fossil record. It seems to me that "climate change" is a convenient stalking-horse for forcing a reduction in oil consumption upon people without telling them the truth. "Climate Change", to whatever degree it is true or false, is primarily a control narrative, employed to force our compliance with the decisions of the powerful.
Bobby has softened his position on climate change.
"There's no daylight between good environmental policy and good economic policy," Kennedy said. "Good environmental policy is good economic policy."
Kennedy's speech did not mention climate change, and his webpage does not either. Instead, The Democratic candidate emphasizes supporting sustainable agriculture with subsidies, incentivizing a transition to clean energy sources, and protecting wild lands from mining, logging, oil drilling and suburban sprawl.
Some video clips from RFK Jr's announcement speech, and the tone:
Kennedy asserted that “my mission over the next 18 months of this campaign, and throughout my presidency will be to end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power that is threatening now… to impose a new kind of corporate feudalism on our country. To commoditize our children, our purple mountains’ majesty, to poison our children and our people with chemicals and pharmaceutical drugs, to strip-mine our assets, to hollow out the middle class, and keep us in a constant state of war.”
Dan sends this article about the mechanisms by which American military equipment costs about 15X as much as the equivalent equipment costs Russia and China. There was a large DoD audit of defense contractors which greatly clarifies reality. Not everybody in the Pentagon is satisfied with the corrupt management which does not even deliver. The Military-Industrial Stock Buyback Complex
Why is the US military ceding ground to China? As a new DOD report shows, big defense contractors are middlemen whose main purpose is stock buybacks and dividends.
Biden’s DOJ Indicts Four Americans for Their Political Views on Russia
The allegation is that members of the African People’s Socialist Party were involved in a 'foreign malign influence campaign'.
The DOJ claims that Ionov used the AGMR to conduct Russia’s “malign influence campaign” and recruited Americans to spread “Russian propaganda.” The indictment alleges the Russians were involved in a 2019 local election in St. Petersburg, Florida (not Russia), one city where the APSP is based...
..Offices and homes affiliated with the APSP were raided by the FBI in 2022 over the group’s connections to the AGMR. Omali Yeshitela, the leader of the APSP who was indicted by the DOJ, pointed out after the raid that his group has worked with organizations around the world for decades.
“At our First Party Congress held in Oakland, California in 1981, we received solidarity statements from organizations and governments from around the world,” Yeshitela wrote in an article published by Antiwar.com in March 2023.
“This helps to give lie to the notion that our connection to a Russian NGO is evidence of an illicit relationship that we would have with a ‘foreign power,'” he said.
Yeshitela strongly denied that his group was working for Russia, and they appear to have been targeted for their political beliefs. The APSP has expressed support for Russia and denounced US involvement in Ukraine, but the group has been speaking out against US foreign policy since it was formed in 1972.
Yeshitela said in the article that he expected to be indicted and that the government would likely use the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) to go after him and his group.
“This is selective prosecution. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee and other Israeli lobbying organizations are seemingly immune from prosecution under the FARA law despite their obvious public function as agents of the Israeli government,” he wrote.
UK police arrests French publisher from work trip in London over anti-Macron protests in Paris Thanks Christine
In a bizarre incident, two plainclothes Scotland Yard detectives stopped a well-known French publisher as he was on his way to the London Book Fair in Kensington and questioned him about his involvement in anti-government protests back in his country.
Ernest Moret, works as foreign rights manager for Éditions La Fabrique in Paris.
Moret was reportedly stopped by ports officers and questioned for six hours under terrorism laws when he arrived at St Pancras station on the Eurostar from Paris at 6.30pm on Monday.
He was searched and his phone and laptop were confiscated, and demanded his passwords; according to coworkers, he refused to comply...
His detention is believed to be the first time a French person has been detained in the UK due to protests in his own country, though the Metropolitan Police has not confirmed this.
It was revealed last night, as a diplomatic battle over his incarceration erupted, that the 28-year-old publisher is still being held after being arrested for refusing to reveal the passcodes to his computer and phone.
The editorial director of the Paris-based publishing house, Stella Magliani-Belkacem, who was with him when he was arrested, told the Guardian: “When we were on the platform, two people, a woman and a guy, told us they were counter-terrorist police.”
They claimed they had the right to question him about protests in France and displayed a document called Section 7 of the Terrorism Act of 2000.
“I’m still shaking,” she continued, “and we are still in shock over what happened.” ...
..On suspicion of willfully impeding a Schedule 7 examination in violation of section 18 of the Terrorism Act 2000, Moret was additionally detained the following day.
La Fabrique referred to the arrest as a “assault on freedom of expression” and asserted that the British and French governments conspired to imprison Mr. Moret.
‘The police officers claimed that Ernest had participated in demonstrations in France as a justification for this act, a quite remarkably inappropriate statement for a British police officer to make and which seems to clearly indicate complicity between French and British authorities on this matter,’ said a spokesman for the publisher, calling his arrest’scandalous’.
French Poll Finds Le Pen Now More Popular Than Macron (but she's the French Trump!)
Stop feeding Europeans. Save the planet for the "owners"! European farmers are furious over a bullshit plan by the European Union which would force then to be treated as industrial plants, similar to steel mills or chemical works, in order to force them to cut greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution.
A Midwestern Doctor sees the same thing I see and remembers what happened to Jewish family members in Germany. Peek at the comments section.
Don't Be a Sucker , Medical Apartheids Lead to Very Dark Places
Sasha Latypova looks at the Moderna "vaccine" contracts, which are different from the Pfizer contracts. A few excerpts: First study ordered - Development and Reproductive Toxicology (DART), the only GLP or Good Laboratory Practice-compliant study required in the entire program. Clearly, pregnant women and unborn babies were the target right from the start. The US Government wanted to see whether sterility and fetal death/malformations could be achieved after 5 doses or so, using the rat as a model. The Government ordered GLP-grade work to make extra sure that the results would be validated, i.e. reliable: ...
..Next comes the reference to the studies to be done by the Vaccine Research Center of the NIH (VRC): “continues to support nonclinical…” = they are running animal experiments for Moderna in their labs. They also clearly know this mRNA concoction will induce “disease enhancement”, aka VAIDS, aka “breakthrough” covid, maybe more severe deadly covid in the injected population. They want this studied and confirmed!
Medical opinions contrary to government policy are illegal to express. Carry on. British Columbia’s dissenting physicians silenced as ‘bylaws mandating vaccines for any condition the government determines necessary’ are going into effect
Speaking for Free (pictured in Austin garden this morning after heavy rains last night)
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