THE REALITY OF EXTEND-AND-PRETEND, Tim Morgan, Surplus Energy Economics
The great unspoken fact of the 1930s was that the world was drifting to war, a trend that nobody knew how to stop. The great unspoken fact of the 2020s is that the global economy is in the process of inflecting from growth into contraction, and, again, this is a process that no-one can halt, still less put into reverse.
Logically, countries, groups and individuals must strive to work out how to fare best in an economy that has become a less-than-zero-sum game. Their relative success or failure in this endeavour will be a function of how much they know about it, and how early they are in gaining that knowledge...
..As ECoEs (energy costs of energy) carry on rising, and as renewables prove incapable of providing a complete replacement for the energy value hitherto sourced from fossil fuels, aggregate material prosperity will fall, gradually in the balance of the 2020s but much more rapidly in the 2030s. In comparison with 2023, the world’s average person is likely to be only about 7% poorer by 2030, but fully 25% worse off by 2040.
At the same time, the real costs of energy-intensive necessities will carry on rising, applying leveraged compression to the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services.
Where the financial corollaries of these material economic trends are concerned, we can assume that ‘extend-and-pretend’ will remain the only game in town, meaning that debt and quasi-debt will carry on rising – and the spending of this credit will carry on being presented as “growth” – until the credibility of money has been destroyed. The strategic aim isn’t to side-step this process, but to ensure that your currency doesn’t win this ‘race to the bottom’.
The rate at which credit will rise will force the authorities back onto the path of QE, ZIRP and NIRP, because there’s no other way of maintaining the fiction that the economy is capable of servicing these soaring debts. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/16/278-of-facts-and-gambits/
I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.One needs to make an assumption about the percentage of gold backing for the money supply needed to maintain confidence. I assume 40% coverage with gold. (This was the legal requirement for the Fed from 1913–1946. Later it was 25%, then zero today).
Applying the 40% ratio to the $17.9 trillion money supply means that $7.2 trillion of gold is required. Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces (held by the US Treasury) yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce.
That’s the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold in a new global gold standard. Of course, money supplies fluctuate; lately they’ve been going up sharply, especially in the U.S.
There’s room for debate about whether a 40% backing ratio is too high or too low. Still, my assumptions are moderate based on monetary economics and history. A dollar price of gold of over $25,000 per ounce in a new gold standard is not a stretch. Obviously, you get around $12,500 per ounce if you assume 20% coverage. There are many variables in play. https://dailyreckoning.com/27000-gold/
"West's Governments Need War" Warns Martin Armstrong "Because Their Debts Are No Longer Sustainable"
..It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wests-governments-need-war-warns-martin-armstrong-because-their-debts-are-no-longer
The strength of the Unit, conceptually, is to remove direct dependency on the currency of other nations, and to offer especially to the Global Majority a new form of apolitical money - with huge potential for anchoring fair trade and investments.
It is indeed a new concept in terms of an international currency - anchored in gold (40%) and BRICS+ currencies (60%). It is neither crypto nor stablecoin. https://en.sputniknews.africa/20240513/1066527607.html
Leader of Slovakia Shot After Demanding Investigation Into COVID Vaccines
Who Is Juraj Cintula? , Is the man who tried to assassinate Slovak Prime Minister Fico really a "lone wolf"? https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/who-is-juraj-cintula
'Guns & Butter': Putin Explains Reason Behind Major Cabinet Shake-Up
Putin said of Belousov: "He understands perfectly well what needs to be done in order for the economy of the entire security complex – and the Ministry of Defense as its key component – to fit into the overall economy of the country," according to state media translation. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/guns-butter-putin-explains-reason-behind-major-cabinet-shake
'Brothers Forever': Putin, Xi Agree That Deepened Ties Project Stability Against West's 'Unilateral Hegemony
At one point Putin also praised efforts of the two at bypassing the US dollar, saying "A powerful impetus to expand our trade flows was given by our timely joint decision to ensure that transactions are conducted in national currencies. As of today, 90% of all payments are made in rubles and yuan." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/brothers-forever-putin-xi-agree-deepened-ties-project-stability-against-unilateral
Chanana: Doctor Doctorow, there's also a closed-door meeting which is scheduled to take place with Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin. And this is going to be in the 1-plus-4 format. There isn't going to be anyone other than the 10 diplomats there and of course, heads of state, inside that closed room. What do you expect in those talks? Because it is being said that they are going to be discussing Ukraine there.
Doctorow: I think the top of the agenda will be the Russians' intentions for using tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield. This is a new development, unprecedented development, and Mr Putin announced Russia's readiness to do that and ordered that there be exercises, military exercises, with the units from the Central Military District operating near Ukraine to practice all kinds of delivery systems for these nuclear weapons. The Chinese have been very cautious, very wary about opening the Pandora's box of nuclear weapons, and I think this will be a top issue for discussion between leaders. https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/vladimir-putins-state-visit-to-china
Ukraine poised to sacrifice entire adult population as government warns of full mobilization https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-05-16-ukraine-to-sacrifice-population-full-mobilization.html
NYT reported that NATO is close to sending troops to Ukraine, the Pentagon denies this
Deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that the US authorities do not plan to send instructors to Ukraine to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Shortly before this, The New York Times (NYT) published material with the words of the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown Jr. He called the deployment of NATO trainers to Ukraine inevitable. https://www-kommersant-ru.translate.goog/doc/6693680?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
That might get more difficult. The fact is the US, by supporting Israel’s “plausible” genocide in Gaza, has managed to find an issue that could cause an irreparable break between the West and the vast majority of Turkish citizens, which could make it politically toxic for Erdogan or anyone else to remain partially aligned with the West.
For months after October 7, Erdogan paid lip service to the Palestinian cause while trade kept flowing between Turkiye and Israel. Voters forced him to take a firmer stand at the polls on March 31 when Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) Party lost the popular vote for the first time since 2002 – partially due to the government response to Israel’s war in Gaza (the other big issue was the economy). https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/05/us-wars-are-making-turkiyes-relationship-with-the-west-politically-untenable.html
Days after announcing a trade freeze, the Turkish government partially walked back its decision by issuing temporary approval for the supply of construction materials to Israel. Ankara has also refrained from obstructing the flow of oil from neighboring Azerbaijan to Israel.
For its part, Tel Aviv has been quietly returning diplomats to Turkey in recent weeks after withdrawing them months ago over "security concerns."
Nevertheless, Turkish officials continue to send mixed signals, as earlier this week, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country decided to submit its declaration of official intervention in South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
"Israel systematically killing thousands of innocent Palestinians and rendering a whole residential area uninhabitable is a crime against humanity, attempted genocide, and the manifestation of genocide," Fidan told reporters. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-will-set-sights-turkey-if-hamas-defeated-erdogan-claims
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez stressed that Palestine is an example of the struggle for "self-determination, independence and sovereignty" https://tass.com/world/1788685
More than 15,000 children killed in Gaza since tensions escalated — Red Crescent
According to the latest data from the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 35,200 Palestinians were killed and more than 79,100 injured during the Israeli military operation in the enclave. https://tass.com/world/1789135
The pier was anchored to the beach in Gaza on Thursday morning, US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, said in a statement.
“As part of this effort, no US troops entered Gaza,” the statement read. “Trucks carrying humanitarian assistance are expected to begin moving ashore in the coming days. The United Nations will receive the aid and coordinate its distribution into Gaza.”
"Additional troops will join the ground operation in Rafah. Several tunnels in the area have been destroyed," he said in a statement released by his office.
Gallant made the statement after travelling to an area near Rafah on May 15 to assess the situation. https://tass.com/world/1789211
Times of Israel highlighted that "The public comments, seen as the most direct political challenge to Netanyahu from within his government since the start of the war, sparked an angry backlash among members of the coalition, who urged Netanyahu to fire the defense minister."
What made matters worse is that just a few hours prior to Gallant issuing his direct challenge, Netanyahu asserted publicly that any discussions of the "day after" Hamas in Gaza are meaningless until the terror group is defeated. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-could-fire-defense-chief-public-spat-erupts-over-gaza-day-after-hamas
For its part, Israeli media reported that Hezbollah used, for the first time, a drone armed with S5 rockets, an air-to-surface missile, to attack Metula.
Reports said the Ziv Medical Center received three soldiers wounded by a drone strike near Metula, "one of them was very seriously wounded, and the other two were lightly wounded." https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-carries-out-first-arab-airstrike-on--israel--since
One of the senators, Republican Joni Ernst of Iowa, picked the following non-profit groups to have the IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel probe to see if they "engaged in conduct warranting revocation of their tax-exempt statuses on the basis of their financial support of NSJP: National Students for Justice in Palestine (NSJP) , AJP Educational Foundation , Tides Foundation , Westchester Peace Action Committee Foundation (WESPAC Foundation . https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-05-16-gop-demands-weaponization-irs-palestine-freedom-activists.html
Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Roger Marshall (R-KS), both Republicans, submitted a bill this week to designate all student protestors – and really just the ones speaking out against Israel – as "terrorists." These two AIPAC-funded Zionists also want to add student protestors to the No Fly List, restricting them from air travel.
Blackburn and Marshall believe that your First Amendment rights no longer apply if you say anything against Israel, which they deem "violence against the Jewish people," according to their proposed bill. https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-05-15-republicans-legislation-criminalize-protestors-terrorists-no-fly.html
New Delhi’s top diplomat has reacted to Washington’s threat of potential sanctions over its recent strategic agreement with Tehran
The Indian and Iranian governments signed the ten-year deal on Monday. The agreement allows Indian state-run operators to manage and develop the Shahid Beheshti Port terminal at Iran’s first deepwater Chabahar port. https://www.rt.com/india/597638-india-responds-to-us-warning/
Mr. Musk seems to have won a very similar fight in Brazil, where a judge demanded not just a national but global takedown. X refused and won. For now...
Remembering Munn’s advice to listen carefully to locals, Millan recalled when an old-timer passed along a local saying: “Cierzo a las siete, Solano a las diez, agua a las tres.” Roughly, sea breeze in the morning at ten, rain in the afternoon at three. The refrain was revealing. For the sea breezes still came in off the sea each morning around ten, yet come afternoon, around three, the storms failed to materialize. The collapse, he reasoned, occurred in between.
Using traditional meteorological methods, he uncovered a key detail. When the morning winds came in, their water content was 14 grams per cubic meter of air, not enough to form clouds, which under those specific conditions would require a moisture level of 21 grams water per cubic meter. The rest of the moisture, 7 grams per cubic meter, would have to come from the land.
It's important to realize, as Millan knew, that the Western Mediterranean Basin was once lush, with vast oak forests, springs and extensive coastal marshlands. That began to change two thousand years ago with the steady spread of the Roman Empire. Marshes were drained, forests cut, mountains mined. By the 16th century much of the oak forests were gone and lowland agriculture was spreading higher into the mountains, along with grazing and further land clearing. Then came the industrial revolution, followed by modernity. In the 1950’s, mass urbanization sealed yet more land as Spain industrialized. A booming tourism industry was particularly devastating for Spain’s coastal marshes, covering key links in the water cycle with parking lots and hotels. Then, in the early 1970’s, due to unrest in the Middle East, petroleum infrastructure was moved across the Mediterranean Sea from the Middle East to the shores of Spain, France and Italy, resulting in “intense industrialization of the coasts.”
Millan faced a basin-wide hydrologic system in the final stages of collapse. The midwives had not only been cut, but the womb desiccated. The climatological regime by which the oaks of old could live had long passed. In its place was a much dryer climate, supporting mostly pinyon and scrub. The soil was mostly eroded away, stretched in places over bare stone. A classic example of how badly things can go wrong is found in the nearby province of Almeria. In the 1850’s its dense oak forests were clearcut to stoke the furnaces of lead smelters. The collapse to desert was so profound that the area eventually became a film locale for spaghetti westerns. Millan fears the entire Western Mediterranean Basin is at such a tipping point, on its way to becoming an Almeria style desert, a point from which it is very difficult to return. “Once you hit rock,” he says, “you’re done.” https://theclimateaccordingtolife.substack.com/p/the-climate-beneath-our-feet
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