Gail Tverberg (Thanks Germ): 2023: Expect a financial crash followed by major energy-related changes
Why is the economy headed for a financial crash? It appears to me that the world economy hit Limits to Growth about 2018 because of a combination of diminishing returns in resource extraction together with rising population. The Covid-19 pandemic and the accompanying financial manipulations hid these problems for a few years, but now, as the world economy tries to reopen, the problems are back with a vengeance...
If the world economy experiences major financial turbulence in 2023, we could be in for a rough ride. In my opinion, a major financial crash seems likely. This is could upset the economy far more seriously than the 2008 crash.
I am certain that some mitigation measures can be implemented. For example, there could be a major push toward trying to make everything that we have today last longer. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/01/09/__trashed/
If you make money from owning a utility, you get more profit if you have an absolute monopoly and everybody has to use your utility. You can charge whatever you want. When our electricity went out for days in Texas in February 2021, were were greatly helped through the cold weather by having a gas stove, which we used judiciously. Putting all of your eggs in somebody else's basket, which you rent, will accomplish what?
Federal agency is considering a ban on gas stoves in the US, report says: 'Hidden hazard' Peer-reviewed research published in December in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health also found more than 12% of childhood asthma cases in the nation can be attributed to the use of a gas stove. (And they "can" be attributed to farting while sleeping.) https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/01/10/gas-stove-ban-us/11022254002/
I call “FOUL” on the gas stoves causing childhood asthma in the US, because it is rare enough that the risks had to be derived from European data, where it is more common, and then those composite statistics were applied to the US as if they were an established-relationship. Then they say some percentage of childhood asthma cases in each US state “were attributable” to gas stoves.
Do poorer people in older houses have more gas stoves? Is this correlation but not causation at work?“Note that we used the combined North America and Europe odds ratio for the relative risk in this equation, as childhood asthma in the US remains relatively rare, affecting 1 in 12 children”https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/75
I don't concur with the political sales-pitch embedded in the title of this editorial opinion, but it provides a jumping off point to consider "populism" vs "elitism", not merely in politics, but more broadly in societal efficiency of problem-solving. Most problem-solving is carried out efficiently by the plumber fixing the pipes, not the shareholders of Roto-Rooter Inc. The USA got a lot of efficiency out of ground-level problem solving, and distant, unrealistic diktats were a contributing cause to the American Revolution. We all know how impractical it can be to follow rigid protocols instead of just fixing a thing quickly, yourself. This inefficiency and time delay is a large part of the embedded cost of all hierarchical bureaucracies, and it does not navigate big problems well, like the economic reset we need to work out now. Our current global economic system serves the middlemen at the epxense of producers and consumers, who are one and the same, working-people.
Offshoring American industrial production did lower prices some, but it lowered wages more. Those who profited were the middlemen, shareholders and the managerial and technical class. their positions have been secured by the flow of goods into the US, from it's imperial role as the printer of the global reserve currency. That will not last very much longer.
To rework the American economy into a locally efficient system to provide for the needs of American citizens will need actual participation by all of us, in solving the problems that we are working on, not awaiting orders from distant bureaucrats and "owners". That means the compliance-economy will have to crumble a lot before it can be replaced by a productive-economy. "Owners" will have to accept a lot of losses before they can relinquish the tight control they now enjoy, but that control is picking the flesh and fat from the bones of the remaining productive economy, so it has to be replaced with an economic format which efficiently supports all of the contributing members of society.
Historically, in power-struggles between elite factions, it's the working people who pay the costs and do the dying to decide the war. As in the "New Deal", a new social contract must be created before people will give their allegiance to any side. We are not approaching that point yet, but the path to fairness is never hidden.
"The GOP Is the Unlettered Party. And That’s a Good Thing."
James Madison explained it this way: “The difference between our government and others was happily this: that here the government had an anxious and difficult task … while the people stood at ease – not pressed upon, not driven.” In contrast, he noted, wherever ambitious and willful cliques are able to grab power, “government has an easy time, and the people have to bear and do everything.”
Popular governments will sometimes embarrass, but they rarely morph into the most egregious errors or tyrannies.
NATO is sending limited supplies of expensive equipment to Ukraine, where it meets the Russian-artillery, along with conscripted Ukrainian cannon-fodder. 'We Are Facing The Entire NATO In Ukraine': Kremlin Says, As UK Mulls Battle Tanks
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev has (said) that it's not fundamentally Ukraine that Russia is at war with, but that the Russian military is facing all of NATO inside Ukraine.
"The events in Ukraine aren’t a clash between Moscow and Kiev. It’s a military confrontation of NATO, first of all the US and Britain, with Russia. Fearing a direct engagement, NATO instructors push Ukrainian men to certain death," he said.
Sweden Won’t Meet Türkiye Demands to Win Its Vote on NATO Membership
Here, we have the US (and NATO) attempting to push around Türkiye, a country that holds far too many cards to meekly accept Western dictates. The immediate contratemps that has just heated up is Türkiye’s threat to block Sweden’s bid to join NATO, which any NATO member can bar. Türkiye demanded that Sweden stop supporting what Türkiye deems to be Kurdish terrorists and made specific requests, including extraditions. It seemed highly unlikely that Sweden would be willing to accede to all of Türkiye’s demands, and Sweden just said so...
Poll reveals how Turks feel about Russia
Almost three quarters of the people surveyed have said they have a positive view of the country
The predominant public opinion in Türkiye is in favor of the neutrality policy and also rejects Washington’s claim that the Russian attack against its neighbor was unprovoked. A May survey by the consultancy MetroPOLL showed that just 33.7% of Turks blamed Moscow for the conflict, compared to 48.3% who pointed the finger at Washington and NATO.
Nevertheless, Turks remain supportive of the US-led bloc, according to the same poll, with almost 60% favoring their nation’s continued membership in it. https://www.rt.com/news/569604-turkish-attitude-russia-poll/
"Middle Ground" appears to mean "blocking-position". As the UAE tries to join Russia in mediating between Ankara and Damascus, the US is looking to establish a middle ground between Turkiye and the SDF in hopes of preventing normalization with Syria.
The meeting is meant to pave the way for a presidential meeting between Erdogan and Assad in the presence of Putin. Reportedly, the UAE has offered to host this summit, with a possibility of a high-level UAE official being present at the meeting if it will be held in Moscow...
..Ankara has demanded that Moscow and Washington commit to the implementation of the bilateral military agreements signed at the end of 2019. The agreements stipulate the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to beyond 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, and from the areas of Manbij and Tal Rifaat, in addition to the withdrawal of all heavy weaponry...
..Meanwhile, Cavusoglu told media on 29 December that Ankara is willing to withdraw from the territory it occupies in northern Syria and hand it over to Damascus in the event that “political stability” is reached – after cooperation in “neutralizing ISIS members, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the YPG.”...
..Following the UAE’s visit to Damascus, which came after the US called on its allies and international partners to refrain from normalizing ties with Syria, Asharq Al-Awsat quoted an official as saying that the US has been the only western country to issue a statement against normalization, and is working alongside Paris, Berlin, and London to assume a united stance against normalization with Syria.
Japan broke with the US last summer, to sustain vital national interests in this oil coming from just North of the Japanese islands.
Russia has ramped up oil production from the Sakhalin-1 project and expects the field to soon pump at the full level of 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) after the project’s previous operator, U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil, quit Russian operations...
Before the war in Ukraine, the project exported some 273,000 barrels daily of Sokol crude, with the main destination for the shipments being South Korea. Sakhalin-1 crude was also shipped to Japan, Australia, Thailand, and the United States...
..Russia has decided to let Japanese firms keep their stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil project in Russia’s Far East. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Restores-Output-At-Major-Oil-Project-After-Exxons-Exit.html
Damar Hamlin is walking, but he was not so much "released" as he was flown-to-another-hospital, and is now in his home town.
V-Safe Part 4: CDC Designs V-Safe to Assure Harms Are Hidden in Free-Text Fields So It Can Control What Becomes Public, Including Limiting the Harms Submitted to VAERS ... V-Safe Caused Under Reporting to VAERS
(VSAFE reports are being withheld from VAERS illegally)
The CDC knew that v-safe users would not also report to VAERS. This is reflected in the CDC’s public guidance regarding v-safe. First, the CDC treated VAERS as the alternative if v-safe was not available. For example, it tells members of the public that, “If you cannot participate in v-safe, you can submit reports of adverse events following vaccination to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).” Or, if a user misses a v-safe check-in and still wants to report, then they are to use VAERS...
..CDC further “rigged” v-safe by relegating reported harms to free-text fields that kept them out of VAERS and hidden from the public.
A ‘Cover-Up of Evidence of Mass Murder’: The CDC Appears to be Removing VAERS Records
“It’s not an accident they would do this.” Something strange is going on with the VAERS system. Reports that were present three months ago are now inexplicably missing. And fewer than 4% of adverse events recorded in V-Safe have made their way to VAERS. https://www.globalresearch.ca/cover-up-evidence-mass-murder-cdc-appears-removing-vaers-records/5803956
Are COVID Boosters Behind Increase in Cancer Among Younger Adults?
Research shows the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein obliterates 90% of the DNA repair mechanism in lymphocytes, white blood cells that help your body fight infection and chronic disease, including cancer.
Cancer rates have increased since the introduction of the COVID-19 shots and are now one of the top three leading causes of premature death among younger adults — a trend that in turn is driving down U.S. life expectancy.
The leading causes of death in 2021 were heart disease and cancer, both of which are potential side effects of the COVID-19 jabs.
Dr. Angus Dalgleish, professor of oncology at St. George’s University of London, warns that COVID-19 boosters may be causing aggressive metastatic cancers.
Pfizer/Moderna/DoD ignored some medical data requests until they went away , and just send computer-generated projected test results instead of test-results.Fake Western Blots Submitted by Pfizer to Several Regulatory Agencies.
Thanks Christine. Is Enterovirus warming up in the lab to be the next global pandemic? Will the US and other countries sign the "Pandemic Treaty" to relinquish sovereignty whenever the WHO declares a pandemic-emergency? (Hey, it doesn't even have to pass in Congress.)Bill Gates and many others and, of course, the WHO have just simulated another pandemic
If Adam Schiff loses his seat on the House Intel Committee, he loses a lot of his protection from legal proceedings, doesn't he?
Schiff, Swalwell And Omar To Get Boot From Committees As McCarthy Cleans House
Democrats are expected to name Schiff and Swalwell to the Intelligence Committee, and place Omar on Foreign Affairs, according to Punchbowl News, citing multiple Democratic leadership sources.
"Swalwell can’t get a security clearance in the private sector. I’m not going to give him a government security clearance," newly minted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Punchbowl. "Schiff has lied too many times to the American public. He should not be on Intel."
"I made all [three] cases before. It’s not like it’s anything new"
Having assumed control of the US House of Representatives, Republicans are pushing forward with probes into President Joe Biden and his family’s business dealings in Ukraine and China, the incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee has said. Big Tech ‘censorship’ of the Hunter Biden laptop story will also be under the spotlight. https://www.rt.com/news/569614-gop-investigate-biden-big-tech/
The House of Representatives voted late Monday to rescind over $70 billion to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in the first bill under the 118th Congress. It now goes to the Democrat-controlled Senate, where it has little chance of progress amid additional opposition from the White House.
"The invasion Equation"
... U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) loss of operational control along the U.S.-Southern border.
A consequence of this is the transformation of cartel insurgencies into well-formed armies that recruit and employ uniformed soldiers, have supporting intelligence operations, and control terrain. The challenge now confronting state and federal law enforcement is no longer how to deter an insurgency; it’s how to defeat an army.
Guarding The Door (pictured with Jenny by finished kitchen door to screen porch)
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