Friday, December 2, 2022

Modeling Reality


  Moon of Alabama (German) has Newsbits On Ukraine
Inside Bakhmut frontline 'littered with corpses' and 'colossal' losses
​  ​The Ukrainian commander of the Svoboda battalion, Petro Kuzyk, whose unit is one of those holding Bakhmut said his soldiers are staying in trenches full of corpses, fighting in extremely cold conditions and in knee-deep water against Russia's attacks.
​  ​"I apologise for speaking slowly now, because I'm very cold – it's making me dizzy. I've now left the first line (since I was called). I'm warming up in the car, I'm almost falling asleep, because I haven't slept all this time. They charged yesterday, quite seriously. They felt a weakness in our defence, because (I will not name the numbers of the units, so as not to spoil their honour) there are units that are less motivated than ours. And yesterday they weakened our defence a little in the area just around the Bakhmut. Some units could not withstand this artillery onslaught and retreated.​"​
​  ​"This is our principle: we, the Svoboda Battalion, do not retreat. And because of that, we found ourselves in a semi-surrounded situation, and we had a lot of work to do. In addition, it is a swamp full of mud. It is very difficult to evacuate the wounded or to deliver ammunition. The trenches are constantly deteriorating, and in this swamp they must be constantly rebuilt."​ ...
​..Aside from HIMARS Ukraine's front artillery has become smaller with less reach than those systems used on the other side. That will make it  easier to counter it. Ukraine also has an acute lack of ammunition for those few weapons that still exist. It has long lost the artillery war.
​  ​The war in Ukraine is waged on an industrial level. But the 'west' and its Ukrainian proxy are not prepared for industrial warfare.​..
..A retired US general has pinpointed a "major issue" for NATO as the West look to keep up with ammo demands as fighting in Ukraine continues to eat up Western stockpiles.
​  ​Ukraine is burning through ammunition and shells at a faster rate than the West can maintain according to retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.
​  ​The former commander believes that NATO lacks the industrial base to replace depleted stockpiles and Ukraine continues to demand ammunition to use against Russian forces.
​  ​Mr Leighton told CNN: "The defence industrial base of all these countries, the NATO countries in Europe as well as the United States it is really not built for this kind of war.​ ​That very fact has made it really difficult for the West to resupply Ukraine, Ukraine is using weapons at a very high rate it is using ammunition as well as part of this.​"

​  ​"Not confirmed" Thanks, Anticlimactic.​ ​ Polish "Mercenaries" Open-Fire and KILL Ukraine Army Commanders Near Bakhmut
​  ​An altercation has taken place between Polish "Mercenaries" fighting FOR Ukraine, and Ukrainian Army officers commanding them. The Polish Mercs and a grouping of about ten thousand Romanian "Mercenaries" also fighting for Ukraine, were allegedly ordered by Ukrainian Army officers to attack Russian positions around Bakhmut.  Fierce fighting has been going on there for weeks and Ukraine is losing.
​  ​The Polish "Mercs" told the Ukrainian Army Officers it would be suicide for them and the Romanians to go attack, everyone else who has done so has been slaughtered by the fortified Russian positions.
​  ​The Ukrainians then allegedly told the Polish either attack or WE will kill you for Mutiny, at which point the Polish drew their weapons and KILLED the Ukrainian commanders.

​  ​On the Kremlin side, importantly Biden's 'offer' of being prepared to speak with President Putin about the war didn't go unacknowledged. The Russian presidency's office said Friday that Putin is "open" to such talks.
​  "The president of the Russian Federation has always been, is and remains open to negotiations in order to ensure our interests," Peskov told reporters. "The United States still doesn’t recognize the new territories as part of the Russian Federation."  Peskov added, "This of course significantly complicates the search for some kind of mutual grounds for possible discussions."

​  ​EU To Set $60 Price Cap On Russian Oil; Kremlin Vows To Ignore, Cut Supply
​  ​The move came after overcoming a last-minute push by Poland to lower the cap, for which the European Commission had originally proposed between $65 and $70 per barrel. In short, the EU came down to Poland's price, which had become a point of contention for more than a week..

  ​Macron is in Washington for 3 days to talk to Biden on an official state visit. Macron speaks diplomatically here, against the colonization of Europe.
​  ​A new US incentive scheme to subsidize local electric car makers risks driving a wedge between Western countries, French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Wednesday amid looming fears of a trade war between America and Europe.
​  ​Speaking at the French embassy in Washington,
Macron said the scheme would have a negative impact on Europe by making it less attractive for businesses to invest in the continent’s economy.
​  ​The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers $391 million of incentives to promote clean energy, including support for electric vehicle manufacturers.
“The choices of the past few months, in particular the IRA, are choices that will fragment the West,” he said, adding that the EU and the US need “to co-ordinate and re-synchronize our policy agendas.”

Dutch farmers are fighting for their lives, but don’t expect to see any mention about their struggle with government oppression in the Western media.
​  ​Videos emerged on social media Thursday that showed Dutch farmers riding in tactors and clashing with police to rail against the country’s decision to make good on its threat to enforce the EU climate law that has sparked protests for months.
​  ​These farmers say these demands will essentially eliminate any chance that they have of making a living. The Netherlands, a country of just about 17 million residents, is the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter after the U.S.

Rand Paul: Fauci Caused 7 Million People To Die; “We’ve Caught Him Red Handed, He Won’t Get Away”

​  Late December 2021 and January 2022 saw a huge undersea volcanic eruption that I did not pay much attention to. 
It caused a tsunami, but it did not release a lot of cooling sulfur dioxide, rather the tallest plume of water-vapor ever observed, which acts as a greenhouse gas, letting visible light in to the planet, but reflecting heat back down.Thanks Mel for alerting me to this.​
Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere
​  ​When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature.
“We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

​  ​The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022​  
​  We find that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai eruption produced the largest global perturbation of stratospheric aerosols since the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the largest perturbation of stratospheric water vapour observed in the satellite era. Immediately after the eruption, water vapour radiative cooling dominated the local stratospheric heating/cooling rates, while at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface, volcanic aerosol cooling dominated the radiative forcing. However, after two weeks, due to dispersion/dilution, water vapour heating started to dominate the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, leading to a net warming of the climate system.

​  ​Record-breaking Hunga Tonga volcanic plume might have warmed Earth's climate​  
  ​The previously unassuming underwater volcano in a remote region of the southern Pacific Ocean exploded with unprecedented force in full view of three weather satellites. These satellites allowed scientists all over the world to observe the mind-boggling explosion in real time and study its aftermath in unprecedented detail.​..
​..​"We were really lucky that we had the area covered with three satellites," Proud said. "[The calculation] produced really nice results; it worked very well for such a high volcano. We've never seen everything this high before."
​  ​The calculation revealed that the Hunga Tonga cloud burst not only through the troposphere but also ascended through the entire stratosphere, only plateauing at the altitude of 35 miles (57 km), way into the freezing and dry layer known as the mesosphere. This makes the Hunga Tonga volcanic cloud the highest ever observed and most likely the highest in over a century.​ ​"The last [volcanic eruption] that could have reached this height was Krakatoa in 1883," said Proud.​..
​..​The Pinatubo ash in the stratosphere cooled the Earth's climate by 1 degree Fahrenheit​ ​(0.6 degrees Celsius) due to the presence of sulfur dioxide in the volcanic material. Sulfur dioxide reflects radiation and is frequently studied as part of potential geoengineering interventions designed to slow down climate change.
​  ​When Hunga Tonga  exploded, scientists thought the eruption could trigger a similar effect (which was, in the case of Pinatubo, observable for two years). Subsequent measurements, however, revealed that the Hunga Tonga cloud contained only about 2% of the sulfur dioxide generated by Pinatubo, not enough to affect the climate in any measurable way. Proud, however, says that the amount of water sprayed by the explosion into the stratosphere may actually warm the climate.
​  ​"This volcano put a lot of water into the stratosphere and also some into the mesosphere," Proud said. "Water in the stratosphere generally warms Earth's surface. So this could actually contribute to some surface level warming of Earth over the next few years. We have very good temperature data for the lower atmosphere, so that's something we should be able to figure out quite quickly."

​Reality Neophyte  (took picture of son Steve and granddaughter Tyler with bananas​, including one store-bought banana)

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