Saturday, October 8, 2016

Words Make War

Playing for Keeps,

Let me insert at the outset, that there is global brinksmanship, with the threat of nuclear holocaust. 
US global hegemony must control the energy flow to European industry and society to retain Europeans as vassals. 
Without that, the $US will not retain global reserve currency status, which allows vassal states to produce goods for export to the US, and accept US promises for them. That is the mechanism of tribute-extraction. 
The US is in a very good position to become a global citizen, even a "first among equals", if the costs of global hegemony can be shed. 
WW-3 will destroy what humans have created, at a time in history where all of the easy resources have been spent, and the planet is heating up from it. 
Neocons at the reins of empire, who have their own bunkers somewhere, may really not be rational actors. We'll see, I guess.

Them's Fightin' Words!
In a statement, the US "intelligence community" said that it is “confident” that the Russian government “directed the recent compromises of emails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations”
The US added that “these thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process”.

Russia does not have the vast array of forces, which the US/NATO command, so a head to head confrontation would be rapidly forced up the escalation-tree to nuclear holocaust, which Russia has historically avoided. Russia does have specific technical advantages in some weapons systems, and specific advantages, on the ground in Syria and Ukraine, for instance, which the US/NATO can't realistically defeat without open commitment of forces and heavy losses, and possibly with overt failure, as well.
Tom sends this article, which looks at Russian options for asymmetrical responses to western forces, which deny opportunity, and inflict high costs if action is taken. (Are all players rational? Playing-crazy is a form of brinksmanship, which Richard Nixon played, and Israel plays routinely.)
Very few US/Turkey-backed jihadis remain in east Aleppo, and they are cut off from resupply, and very few civilians remain in that area. Syria's largest city is in the process of coming back under complete control of the Syrian government, the decisive turning point for the war, and probably the decisive turning point for the gas=pipeline-to-Europe competition. Qatar is the Imperial contestant, and Iran is the local favorite, backed by Russia and Syria. Thanks Tom. "The ceasefire ultimately collapsed because the hardliners in Washington and the Jihadis on the ground in Syria could not in the end bring themselves to accept the surrender of eastern Aleppo to the government by agreeing to the withdrawal of Jihadi fighters from eastern Aleppo by way of the Castello road."
Russia takes a very firm position against "American Exceptionalism", which is openly casting-down-the-gantlet to the Imperial Power. Russia and the US have a weapons-grade-plutonium-reprocessing-agreement, which has not really been kept. The US has accepted lots of weapons-grade plutonium from Russia, but has not reprocessed it by using it to produce electricity, and so on. This has saved Russia the costs of reprocessing, and bolstered the Russian nuclear industry internationally. The US has all this potential for further massive overkill if this stockpile is converted into warheads, but to what practical end? The US lack of compliance with the treaty was unmentioned for decades, but now Russia is openly suspending participation, and will retain weapons-grade plutonium. Russia now retains the option to make a lot of nuclear warheads. This step justifies presenting a set of conditions, by which the US would have to comply with international law, as other nations must. No other country has addressed the US this way since US independence and sea-power became firmly established about 200 years ago. Presumably, Russia does not make this move without "multipolar" support. Thanks Tom.
Wikileaks (better late than never) releases Hillary Clinton's Paid-Talks-to-Bankers Transcripts:   Clinton: “But If Everybody's Watching, You Know, All Of The Back Room Discussions And The Deals, You Know, Then People Get A Little Nervous, To Say The Least. So, You Need Both A Public And A Private Position.”

"I did try and fuck her. She was married." Donald Trump, in 2005 chat outside Days of Our Lives set, where he did a cameo.
Offsetting "October-Surprises" allow significant political reshuffling ahead of second debate, which should be pretty vicious:
Trump apologizes, "if anybody was offended". He says Bill Clinton bragged worse, but there's no video...
12:09 AM Saturday, was the first step for Trump if he’s going to turn his campaign around. In it, he vowed to “be a better man tomorrow.”

Julian Assange’s latest revelation that has Clinton strategist, Bob Beckel calling for his assassination…the DNC email hack (that the Clinton machine cleverly diverted into a Putin-Trump imaginary bromance) was most likely leaked, not by Russians, but by 27 year old Democratic staffer Seth Rich, who was mysteriously (and conveniently) murdered right after the DNC leak.  "A dead man can't leak stuff. Illegally shoot the son of a bitch!" (Thanks Tom)

The EU doesn't want Brexit "negotiations". The EU wants "blood-revenge":

What North Slope Oil was to the OPEC Oil Embargo? This stuff will be dangerous, and expensive, but it is hard to imagine that the man-made islands, and dangerous pipeline will not be built, if this much oil is really there. (There have been rumors since the 1980s of a big patch of oil held in reserve in Alaska.)   Caelus Energy LLC, a small company backed by private equity, says that it has discovered oil on Alaska’s northern coast. The field could hold as much as 6 billion barrels of oil, with about 1.8 to 2.4 billion barrels considered to be recoverable. If that is the case, the discovery would instantly raise Alaska’s statewide recoverable oil reserve base by about 80 percent. But producing the oil will not be easy. Drilling must take place in the winter. To drill the field, the tentative plan would be to build manmade islands to drill through. Oil produced in the shallow water of Smith Bay will need to be moved somehow. Caelus will have to build an $800 million pipeline that travels 125 miles, connecting to an existing pipeline system in Prudhoe Bay.
Slippery Slope

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