Thursday, October 6, 2022

Only Bad Ideas

 Ignored Again,

  John Michael Greer on "Futures That Work" refers to Arnold Toynbee's 12 volume Study Of History, and focuses on the feature of how societies adapt, or fail and are later replaced, when they are confronted with problems related to their economic modes of sustenance and survival.
  It's the creative class that is important, the problem-solvers, who may not be the rulers, but who inspire the rulers to take certain actions when problems arise.
The creative-minority has to be nimble, adroit, and has to keep solving a variety of different problems. If a particular solution-set, like industrial-society, powered by fossil-fuels, mines, factory farms and electronic communications, becomes entrenched, the creative-minority may be replaced by a dominant-minority. A dominant-minority reacts to problems by reframing them to fit preferred "solutions", which don't work, but keep being put forward, because they are "preferred" by those who dominate. The actions of Liz Truss, deciding to cut taxes for the rich, when the Pound Sterling was on the ropes, and almost bankrupting most UK pensions before lunch, is used as a ready example. Liz is not in her position to be creative.
  The positions on the energy future of the industrialized world are also "preferred". The green-agenda wants to do what has not worked in Germany with great effort, and which there is not enough fossil-fuel to carry out, let alone to continue long term. 
  The nuclear-answer, popular since the 1950s, does not work well financially, because there are so many ancillary costs, and such high risks, and great costs come when reactors need to be retired, like balloon-notes come due. 
  Those who deny the problem itself, that there is a shortage of energy to feed exponential growth, are not expounded-upon. 
  Greer looks at modes of problem-solving, like seeing what worked in an area in the past, like transportation-canals in England. He looks at insulation to cut heating and cooling costs by 10%. That is hard to retrofit, I'll point out. Taking out sheetrock walls and climbing in tight attics with nails poking you in the head makes most workers put insulation in pretty carelessly. It is then far less effective than in theory.
  Greer doesn't really discuss war, but it is one of the main political tools in times of change. War needs to have clear and achievable objectives, which most politicians don't comprehend well. It is a horrible tool, and it backfires half the time at best. War does not provide innovative solutions. War reinforces the hand of dominant-elites. Sometimes creative minorities turn up in a war, but they were already there and ignored. 
  In a world of declining net energy, with or without climate change, one needs to grow one's own garden, insulate one's own house, have nice wool long-underwear and a well-fitted, practical bicycle. there is a lot more of course, but a big-fix like exponential-economic-growth powered by coal, oil and gas, will not be found. 
  Maybe fusion-power will be technically possible, but it will require all that has gone before it to remain in good working order. 
  That working-order is collapsing from something as readily repairable as a miscalibrated economic system, which collapses without ongoing exponential growth. The dominant-class does not want to understand that, because it is what feeds them, so they do not understand it, and will take the world to war rather than understand the need for economic recalibration to a less-wasteful system, one that can grow and contract with changing realities. 
  The systemic adjustments being seriously considered in the west are variations on absolute control of each person through brain-wiring and electronic money to keep the person in compliance, or dying of cold and hunger, owning-nothing-and-being-insincerely-"happy" to survive at all. That looks like more can-kicking in a bad direction. It ignores the problem solving ability of billions of adaptive humans. 
  The Cheney-Bush plans were to control the world and take what they needed. That is equally short-term, but preferred, because those in power got to stay in power. 
  All of the "preferred solutions" cause more bleeding of productive economy, while providing fresh blood to the owners, forcing the privations of economic collapse onto the rest of us.
   There is a rumor going around that the owners want to slowly kill off 90% of the herd, the "useless" 90%. More can-kicking. 
  I'm in that 90%, so I don't like it. I can be somewhat more creative than that, and so can you.

The United States declares war on Russia, Germany, the Netherlands and France​ , ​by Thierry Meyssan​​
​  ​While the international press treats the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a news item, we analyze it as an act of war against Germany and the European Union. Indeed, the three gas supply routes to Western Europe have been cut off simultaneously, while at the same time a new gas pipeline has been opened to Poland.
​  ​Just as Mikhail Gorbachev saw in the Chernobyl disaster the inevitable break-up of the USSR, so we believe that the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines marks the beginning of the economic collapse of the Union.

​  Former Commander US Forces, Afghanistan and CIA Director, David Petraeus (hypothetically) Explains US Threats to Russia​

​  ​Petraeus thinks that this is what the US government has in mind when it comes to the recent statements of “catastrophic consequences” for Moscow. Lately, the belligerent thalassocracy has ramped up its unfounded rhetoric that Russia was supposedly planning on using tactical nuclear weapons against the Kiev regime forces. The narrative has been heavily (ab)used by the mainstream propaganda machine.
​  ​“And what would happen?” show co-anchor Jonathan Karl asked Petraeus.
​  ​“Well, again, I have deliberately not talked to Jake [Sullivan] about this. I mean, just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO, a collective effort, that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” former CIA chief stated.
​  ​Then, the “This Week” anchor mentioned the scenario in which the radiation fallout from the supposed Russian nuclear strike could directly impact much of Eastern Europe, including nearby NATO member states.
​  ​“Yes. And perhaps you can make that case. The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response, it cannot go unanswered. But it doesn’t expand, it doesn’t — it’s not nuclear for nuclear,” Petraeus claimed. “You don’t want to, again, get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way,” the retired general said.
​  ​While the retired US Army general and former CIA director is not speaking from a position of legal authority, as he is not officially part of the troubled Biden administration or in any capacity as an active government official, his opinion can still be considered a reflection of what the US foreign policy and military establishment think, especially considering the positions he held in the past. The very idea that such a high-ranking (former) official thinks that Russia would stand idle while NATO targets its forces is quite indicative of the deteriorating state of America’s top brass, both political and military.

Politics By Other Means​ , ​Putin and Clausewitz  , Big Serge​
“War is a mere continuation of politics by other means.”
​  ​B​ig Serge points out that Vladimir Putin is a bureaucrat (and lawyer) by nature, not a demagogue. He is very orderly and systematic, intelligent, not as he is typically presented in western media. He does not have, nor seek a cult of personality, but is popular in Russia because he has provided gradual improvement in people's lives. 
  The take away here, after some good psychological profiling, is that there was a threat to Russia posed by massed Ukrainian/NATO forces early this year, which Russia pre-empted as frugally in men and equipment as possible. Over that time, the people of Russia have made a transition from watching the war on TV, to feeling the existential threat from the west. They now want the threat to be removed decisively. Putin has brought the Russian people to politically supporting an existential war for Russian survival, a thing he saw, and that Russians now see. This is political effectiveness. Russians have committed at least as fully to war as any country in history when they have done so to defend Russian existence, their homes and families. That spirit is now widespread.

Maneuver Warfare, Great dangers rise up when you least expect them ,  William Schryver , Thanks Dan (Russian intentions are really not known, nor NATOs.)
​..​I described how the Ukrainians had expended thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles in their quasi-fanatical attempts to take both Kupyansk and Liman.
​  ​Nevertheless, those two towns were taken, and the Ukrainians have continued to make modest advances since then while the Russians prepare yet another hardened defensive line several kilometers further east.
​  ​I’ve also been reporting for weeks now regarding the never-ending trains of Russian equipment and troops streaming into the region from various directions – and yet few if any of these major reinforcements have found their way to the front lines, much to the chagrin of those cheering on the Russian cause, and who have been devastated by what appear to be repeated Russian defeats.
​  ​However, in just the last few hours, reports have been leaking out that western intelligence has detected a major buildup of Russian forces in and around Belgorod, just across the border of the Kharkov Oblast, and immediately north of the current line of contact.

​  There are very different reports of who is running out of war-material worse, in Moscow and Washington. Each capital believes its own information.​
..The General Staff of Ukraine has never counted the losses in manpower. The last month of hostilities in Ukraine was marked by offensive operations of the AFU in several regions of the country. In the Kharkiv region, they led to strategic success, while in Kherson, the operation ended in failure and the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen. The Kiev regime is wasting no time trying to disrupt Russian communications and cut off supply roads in the Kharkiv and Donbass regions before the rainy season comes, as well as before hundreds of thousands of newly mobilized Russian troops are deployed on the front lines. The Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO servicemen deployed in Ukraine are trying their best to declare new victories and please their Western patrons, not paying attention to the price they have to pay.

​Moon of Alabama (German) , ​Ukraine - What Explains The Recent Russian Retreats?
..My current 'feel' is that the Russian forces have orders from high above to conserve forces and to let go of land and retreat when the pressure becomes big enough and severe Russian casualty numbers are likely.
​  ​Why were such orders given? What are the plans behind them?
​  ​I don't really know.​ ​But I am sure will find out when Russia opens the new phase of the war.
​  ​The weather has become quite bad in Ukraine with rain making the passing over fields with tanks etc nearly impossible. That is why the attack in the south was pushed along a road. In two month the ground in Ukraine will likely be frozen.
​  ​The Russian military leadership seems to believe that the Ukrainian operations will cease soon and that the mobilized reinforcements that are starting to come online will be able to decisively change the picture as soon as the winter comes.
​  ​Another potential reason behind the order to conserve forces and to not hold onto territory at any price may be political. The Russian public was starting to get a bit tired of the war but after the losses in the Kharkov region the TV pundits pushed for winning the war. That allowed Russia's president to launch the mobilization of reservists. The further losses since may be designed to allow for more political measures.

​  ​Continued American deliveries of weapons, intelligence and even personnel to Ukraine make a direct NATO-Russia confrontation more likely, diplomat Konstantin Vorontsov told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
..“The US is increasing the deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, providing its military with intelligence information, ensuring the direct participation of its fighters and advisers in the conflict,” Vorontsov, who is the deputy head of the Russian delegation, told the General Assembly’s First Committee, a body charged with arms control and security issues.
​  ​This “not only prolongs hostilities and leads to new casualties, but also brings the situation closer to the dangerous line of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO,” Vorontsov added.

​  Spartacus about the "own nothing and be happy". rentier-capitalist scheme.
​  ​If they say you’re a dissenter, or a terrorist, or whatever charges they feel like fabricating for your non-compliance with their disgusting, cowardly, tyrannical behavior, they can make your money go poof. If you leased everything to live, then you now have the shirt on your back and a burlap sack with some dirt and weeds in it. You have nothing. You’re homeless. Forcing citizens to lease everything to live is a cynical, tyrannical form of social control. It means that when you’re unemployed, or frozen out of the financial system, you have no assets, no property to fall back on, nothing you can pawn, if need be. It means no inheritance. It means your family can’t pass down valuable heirlooms and assets to your children, or your children’s children, nor can you receive such from your parents. Basically, the arrangement of rentier-overlord and helpless serf reduces you to an isolated consumer-unit, constantly throwing money uphill and into the pockets of the rentier class.
​  ​It’s cynical and insane of the Overclass to try and force this intolerable arrangement on millions of people who are acclimated to freedom. They know this. That’s why they want comprehensive electronic mind controlIt’s why they want mass immigration from poorer countries to more affluent ones.

​  Moon of Alabama on western elites sticking to their preferred-solution despite ongoing failure of the economic sanctions against Russia..
​  The idea was to bankrupt Russia within a few weeks. The deluded people behind those sanctions had no idea how big and sanctions proved Russia's economy really is. The sanctions failed to influence Russia in any way but their consequences led to a shortfall of energy in Europe and increased the already high inflation rates. Inflation in Russia is sinking and its general economic numbers are good. The now higher energy prices generate sufficient additional income to completely finance its war efforts.
  A sane actor would conclude that the sanctions were a mistake and that lifting them would help Europe more than it would help Russia. But no, the U.S. and European pseudo elites are no longer able to act in a sane manner. They are instead doubling down with the most crazy sanction scheme one has ever heard of...

..How do you make a big producer of a rare commodity sell those goods below the general market price? Unless you have a very strong buyers cartel that can also that product from elsewhere you can not do this successfully. It is an economic impossibility...
..Russia has declared that it will not sell any oil to any party that supports the G7 price fixing regime. That is why neither China nor India nor any other country besides the EU and U.S. will agree to adhere to it....
​..​Under the new rules, companies involved in the shipping of Russian oil — including shipowners, insurers and underwriters — would be on the hook for ensuring that the oil they are helping to transport is being sold at or below the price cap. If they are caught helping Russia sell at a higher price, they could face lawsuits in their home countries for violating sanctions.​..
​..​This is of course an open invitation to other countries to enter the oil shipping and related financial services businesses at the cost of European companies.
​  ​China and India will both it to increase their market shares in those fields. Their ships will transport Russian oil to whoever wants to buy it for the market price minus the always negotiable Russian rebate. Greek ships will sit idle or will be sold off while Indian and Chinese and other Asian tankers will be very, very busy. ​  ​China's big insurance companies will happily join that new global services business.
​  ​That European bureaucrats agreed to his stupid U.S. idea, which will foremost hurt European businesses, is another sign that Brussels has given up on having any agency.
​  ​Today OPEC+ countries, the seller cartel for oil, reacted to the crazy sanctions idea and the upcoming global depression by agreeing to decrease their daily output by 2 million barrels. This was not done out of Saudi solidarity with Russia. Saudi Arabia needs oil at above $80/bl to finance its budget.                                          

​  Walter M. Chesnut looks at what every COVID-19 "vaccine" injection provides to the recipient.
Is all Spike Protein damage based upon individual’s level of Microvascular Occlusion? And, does each exposure inexorably increase an individual’s Microvascular Occlusion?

Taking Heart   (Jenny in banana patch)

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