Monday, April 15, 2024

The Missiles Of April

 Trying To Keep Up,

  The April 13 Iranian response to Israel's attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria on April 1, has readjusted the equation of Mideast and perhaps global power relations.
  Iran chose to demonstrate capability and re-establish deterrence against Israeli and US attacks upon Iranian territory, rather than to respond in kind by killing. This choice and other Iranian communications, make it clear that Iran does not want a regional war, but will respond harshly to attacks despite all air defenses in place.
  Because it is now deterred, the US will officially not support Israel in attacking Iran (which means no aerial refueling of Israeli bombers, we presume). President Biden has communicated this to P.M. Netanyahu, who voiced "understanding".
  Prime Minister Netanyahu heads a revisionist-Zionist coalition which intends to remove non Jewish Palestinian natives from Israel/Palestine through genocide, so he is politically threatened unless he can appear to be progressing in that direction. Scott Ritter has predicted that in order to "do something" the Mossad would ramp-up covert actions against Iran, through ISIS and ethnic separatist groups, but after an initial announcement of restraint by the Israeli government (reflecting military facts) the Netanyahu administration now announces that it will directly attack Iran (reflecting political reality).
  Native Palestinians are being massacred and starved daily by the Israeli Occupation Forces, but Look War With Iran!

  Professor Anthony Hall,  Israel Tries to Change the Subject from Genocide to Iran
The Netanyahu Government Looks for a Means of Drawing Attention Away from Its Abundant Failures

​  ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’ Day 192: European countries urge Israel not to respond to Iran attack; Israeli army targets Gazans returning north
Germany, France and the UK called upon Israel “not to escalate” after Iran’s strike on Saturday. Israel killed 43 Palestinians attempting to return home to north Gaza as Hamas presents a new counter-proposal for a ceasefire
​  Israeli Finance Minister and ultra-nationalist settler Bezalel Smotrich calls for full Israeli control of Gaza.
​  Israel releases two Palestinian medics in Gaza after 50 days of detention. Six other medics remain detained.
​  Israeli army shoots at Palestinians attempting to return to the northern Gaza Strip, killing one girl.
.​  On Sunday, Al-Jazeera reported from “sources close to negotiations” that Hamas’s proposal involves three 42-day-long phases of ceasefires, including captive exchanges.​ The group proposed an Israeli withdrawal to the Gaza borders from all areas of the Strip during the first phase and a permanent ceasefire to be announced during the second phase, allowing for an exchange of captives.
​  According to reports, Hamas proposed to release one Israeli civilian captive for every 30 Palestinian captives, and one Israeli military captive for every 50 Palestinian captives, including 30 Palestinians serving high sentences in Israeli prisons.
​  Hamas’s proposal insisted on allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the north of Gaza, and the beginning of reconstruction in the Gaza Strip during the third phase.
​  For its part, Netanyahu’s office released a statement by the Israeli Mossad, saying that Hamas had “given a negative response” to Israel’s ceasefire proposal.

​  Gilbert Doctorow, What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in your mainstream news provider
  The Iranian position is much more nuanced and contains far greater threat not only to Israel but also to the entire United States presence in the region than the FT suggests. I say this on the basis of an analysis provided on last night’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show on Russian state television by a regular panelist, Semyon Arkadievich Bagdasarov, who is a leading Russian specialist on the region.​..
..Bagdasarov calls the Iranian attack on Israel a limited strike intended as a warning, but also yielding both specific tactical and strategic results.
​  On the tactical side, the swarming of drones was intended to activate the Iron Dome and other levels of Israeli air defense and to reveal the location of their component parts as well as to deplete the Israeli stock of relevant missiles.
​  Per Bagdasarov, Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of the incoming barrage should be taken with a grain of salt. The Iranians’ key targets in the attack were the Israeli air force base in the south of the country from which the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was launched two weeks ago and a military intelligence compound which had prepared that deadly strike. The actual extent of damage from Iranian missiles remains to be evaluated.
​  Bagdasarov explains that the Iranian attack was ‘limited’ because it consisted of rather slow moving drones and of missiles with small warheads.  These were not Iran’s most advanced and lethal attack materiel, which has been held in reserve for any possible Round Two.​..
..Over the past 20 years, Iran has bet its defense budget on missiles and drones, and it has a large-scale serial production of both. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies also have large stocks of these weapons, some of which are also fairly sophisticated. In particular, Hizbollah in Lebanon may have 1500 high quality missiles in its arsenal.
​  At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.
​  Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it. Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories.  These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.
​  Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.
​  The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel
.  Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.
​  Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.
​  And what about Israel’s alleged plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations?  Bagdasarov insists that this is an impossible objective.  Firstly, because the Iranian nuclear program is distributed among 200 centers spread across the vast country and many of these locations are in desert areas buried under 40 meters of sand.  The Israelis might only destroy a couple of the best known nuclear centers. Secondly, because to reach their targets in Iran, the Israeli jets would require in-air refueling by American tankers, and it is scarcely credible that Biden will give his consent considering how the U.S. regional bases are under threat.
​  Iran fired this time only on military objects, but if they use not 300 but 10,000 missiles and drones then Israel will be obliterated.  Hizbollah alone have 1,500 advanced missiles.  Iran surely has real missiles and drones that are still more powerful.  No one knows exactly how many.​..
..As host Vladimir Solovyov commented at the opening of the program, the principal fact is that the Iranians did it. They spat on the U.S. and its allies, and they just did what they believed was necessary. In consequence the world ‘built on rules’ counts for nothing.​

​I saw this Saturday night, but not since then (Sshhh...)
Vladimir Putin: If the United States wants to come to the field to support Israel, we will not sit idle here, the smallest attack by the United States on Iranian soil will force us to support Iran.

Scott Ritter,  Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel will go down in history as one of the greatest victories of this century.
​  First and foremost, Iran has been engaged in a strategic policy premised on a pivot away from Europe and the United States, and toward Russia, China, and the Eurasian landmass. This shift has been driven by Iran’s frustration over the US-driven policy of economic sanctions, and the inability and/or unwillingness on the part of the collective West to find a path forward that would see these sanctions lifted. The failure of the Iranian nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) to produce the kind of economic opportunities that had been promised at its signing has been a major driver behind this Iranian eastward pivot. In its stead, Iran has joined both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS forum and has directed its diplomatic energies into seeing Iran thoroughly and productively integrated into both groups.
​  A general war with Israel would play havoc on these efforts.
​  Secondly, but no less important in the overall geopolitical equation for Iran, is the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This is a game-changing event, where Israel is facing strategic defeat at the hands of Hamas and its regional allies, including the Iranian-led axis of resistance. For the first time ever, the issue of Palestinian statehood has been taken up by a global audience. This cause is further facilitated by the fact that the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, formed from a political coalition which is vehemently opposed to any notion of Palestinian statehood, finds itself in danger of collapse as a direct result of the consequences accrued from the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent failure of Israel to defeat Hamas militarily or politically. Israel is likewise hampered by the actions of Hezbollah, which has held Israel in check along its northern border with Lebanon, and non-state actors such as the pro-Iranian Iraqi militias and the Houthi of Yemen which have attacked Israel directly and, in the case of the Houthi, indirectly, shutting down critical sea lines of communication which have the result of strangling the Israeli economy.
​  But it is Israel that has done the most damage to itself, carrying out a genocidal policy of retribution against the civilian population of Gaza. The Israeli actions in Gaza are the living manifestation of the very hubris and power-driven policies I warned about back in 2006-2007. Then, I said that the US would not be willing to be a passenger in a policy bus driven by Israel that would take us off the cliff of an unwinnable war with Iran.
​  Through its criminal behavior toward the Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Israel has lost the support of much of the world, putting the United States in a position where it will see its already-tarnished reputation irreparably damaged, at a time when the world is transitioning from a period of American-dominated singularity to a BRICS-driven multipolarity, and the US needs to retain as much clout in the so-called “global south” as possible.

​  The US has tried—unsuccessfully—to take the keys out of the ignition of Netanyahu’s suicide bus ride. Faced with extreme reticence on the part of the Israeli government when it comes to altering its policy on Hamas and Gaza, the administration of President Joe Biden has begun to distance itself from the policies of Netanyahu and has put Israel on notice that there would be consequences for its refusal to alter its actions in Gaza to take US concerns into account.  
​  Any Iranian retaliation against Israel would need to navigate these extremely complicated policy waters, enabling Iran to impose a viable deterrence posture designed to prevent future Israeli attacks while making sure that neither its policy objectives regarding a geopolitical pivot to the east, nor the elevation of the cause of Palestinian statehood on the global stage, were sidetracked.
​  The Iranian attack on Israel appears to have successfully maneuvered through these rocky policy shoals. It did so first and foremost by keeping the United States out of the fight. Yes, the United States participated in the defense of Israel, helping shoot down scores of Iranian drones and missiles. This engagement was to the benefit of Iran, since it only reinforced the fact that there was no combination of missile defense capability that could, in the end, prevent Iranian missiles from hitting their designated targets.
​  The targets Iran struck—two air bases in the Negev desert from which aircraft used in the April 1 attack on the Iranian consulate had been launched, along with several Israeli air defense sites—were directly related to the points Iran was trying to make in establishing the scope and scale of its deterrence policy. First, that the Iranian actions were justified under Article 51 of the UN Charter—Iran retaliated against those targets in Israel directly related to the Israeli attack on Iran, and second, that Israeli air defense sites were vulnerable to Iranian attack. The combined impact of these two factors is that all of Israel was vulnerable to being struck by Iran at any time, and that there was nothing Israel or its allies could do to stop such an attack.
​  This message resonated not only in the halls of power in Tel Aviv, but also in Washington, DC, where US policy makers were confronted with the uncomfortable truth that if the US were to act in concert with Israel to either participate in or facilitate an Israeli retaliation, then US military facilities throughout the Middle East would be subjected to Iranian attacks that the US would be powerless to stop.
​  This is why the Iranians placed so much emphasis on keeping the US out of the conflict, and why the Biden administration was so anxious to make sure that both Iran and Israel understood that the US would not participate in any Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran.
​  The “Missiles of April” represent a sea-change moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics—the establishment of Iranian deterrence that impacts both Israel and the United States. While emotions in Tel Aviv, especially among the more radical conservatives of the Israeli government, run high, and the threat of an Israeli retaliation against Iran cannot be completely discounted, the fact is the underlying policy objective of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the course of the past 30-plus years, namely to drag the US into a war with Iran, has been put into checkmate by Iran.
​  Moreover, Iran has been able to accomplish this without either disrupting its strategic pivot to the east or undermining the cause of Palestinian statehood. “Operation True Promise,” as Iran named its retaliatory attack on Israel, will go down in history as one of the most important military victories in the history of modern Iran, keeping in mind that war is but an extension of politics by other means. The fact that Iran has established a credible deterrence posture without disrupting major policy goals and objectives is the very definition of victory.​

​Simplicius has a lot of missile details, specifics and video analysis of Iranian missiles striking Israel. 
​  Iran came out the big winner by demonstrating all the previously-outlined abilities of bypassing the West’s densest AD shields.
​  Here’s why I think in some ways this conclusion to be the more correct in the long term.
​  Firstly, one of the common counterarguments is that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, which ultimately trumps anything Iran can throw at them. But in reality, now that Iran has proven the ability to penetrate Israel, Iran too can cause nuclear devastation by striking the Israeli Dimona nuclear power plant. Destroyed nuclear plants would produce far more radioactive chaos than the relatively ‘clean’ modern nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Israel is much smaller than the comparatively gigantic Iran. Iran can take many nuclear hits and survive; but a single mass nuclear event in Israel could irradiate the entire country, making it uninhabitable.​..

..This was Iran’s very first foray into such a direct strike. It can be argued that they gained critical data and metrics from the entire Western alliance’s defensive capabilities as well as Israeli defensive vulnerabilities. This means that there is an implied threat that any future attack of this scale could be far more effective, as Iran may now ‘calibrate’ said attack to maximize what it saw were any failings or weaknesses on its part last night. Russia has had two years of launching such strikes, and it has only been semi-recently that they’ve calibrated and fine tuned the precise timings of the sophisticated multi-layered drone-ALCM-ballistic triple threat attack. Iran can improve with each iteration as well and maximize/streamline the effectiveness with each attempt.
​  Fourthly, there is the now-confirmed mass discrepancy of operational costs:
​  Israel's defense of last night's Iranian missile and drone attack is estimated to have cost over $1.3 billion in jet fuel, surface-to-air missile interceptors, air-to-air missiles, and other military equipment utilized by the Israeli air defense array; with an "Arrow 3" hypersonic anti-ballistic missile alone believed to cost between $5-20 million.
​  One unconfirmed source claimed Iran’s attack cost as little as $30M, while the number floated for the West’s interceptions is around $1B to $1.3B.

Netanyahu called off retaliation strikes after speaking to Biden – NYT​, The US president reportedly talked the Israeli prime minister out of military action against Iran
Israel Says Readying 'Imminent' Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region
Middle East braces for Israeli 'retaliation' attack on Iran after Israel War Cabinet meets
Israeli Air Force says it has completed 'preparation' and that an attack is 'imminent'
US officials tell WSJ they believe Israel will launch an anti-Iran operation today

​  Four Israeli soldiers were wounded Monday after a bomb was detonated inside Lebanese territory, in a rare moment where it appears the IDF was seeking to breach the border.​ Hezbollah took responsibility for the explosion, saying it planted the bomb near the border. Hezbollah militants "planted explosive devices in the Tal Ismail area" inside Lebanon, and detonated them after Israeli soldiers "crossed the border," according to a statement from the group.​ Israeli army radio admitted that "Golani fighters carried out an operation near the border, tens of hundreds of meters away from Israeli territory," and that the troops were injured "inside Lebanese territory."

​  'Surprising' Intensity Of Houthi Attacks Push French Warship To Exit Red Sea
​  France's Aquitaine-class FREMM frigate Alsace has turned tail from the Red Sea after running out of missiles and munitions repelling attacks from the Yemeni armed forces, according to its commander, Jerome Henry.​ "We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat. There was an uninhibited violence that was quite surprising and very significant. [The Yemenis] do not hesitate to use drones that fly at water level, to explode them on commercial ships, and to fire ballistic missiles," Henry told French news outlet Le Figaro.​

​  Kyiv has recently been shelling the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant almost daily
​  The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. The former Ukrainian nuclear power plant has been under Russian control since the end of February 2022 and was already attacked by Kiev in 2022. When IAEA experts finally arrived there in September 2022, Kiev shifted the shelling to the surrounding area, the nearby city of Energodar, which was built during Soviet times especially for the nuclear power plant's employees. Since the beginning of April, the nuclear power plant itself has been shot at almost daily by the Ukrainian army.​

​  John Ward, The Slog:  Putin’s China/Iran deal spells end of US hegemony dream
​  Russia, China, and Iran conduct regular joint exercises in the Arabian Sea. Those exercises have increased in both scope and frequency in recent years.
​  Both Russia and China are investing vast sums of capital in Iran, much of it in the energy sector and in ambitious transportation projects aiming to construct fast and efficient trade corridors linking China, Iran, and Russia as primary nodes of Eurasian commerce.
​  Arms and technology transfers between the three countries have reached unprecedented levels.
​  Audaciously, Vladimir Putin has thrown down a hard-as-nails metal gauntlet.
​  It now transpires that Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov late the week before last concluded several days of intensive talks with Chinese leaders, including both Wang Yi and Xi Jinping. In its account of the talks, the Chinese government’s flagship media organ, Global Times, summarised (in the words of prominent CPC commentator Li Haidong) the current state of the Russia/China relationship:
​  “China and Russia will not target any third party, but if hegemonic forces threaten China and Russia, or threaten world peace, China and Russia will stand together and fight to protect their own interests and safeguard world peace together.”
​  This is simple diplo-speak to show the West that Russia, China, and Iran recognize that an attack against any one of them would constitute an existential threat to them all. The strategic interests of all three countries are now inextricably intertwined.
​  Most importantly, they are united in a single overriding strategic objective: to dismantle the dominion of the long-reigning Anglo-American empire.

​  The Speech That Got Me Banned From GermanyBY​ YANIS VAROUFAKIS​  4/13/24
​  Today, Germany’s interior ministry issued a “betätigungsverbot” against me, a ban on any political activity — not just a ban from visiting Germany but also from participation in Zoom events hosted in the country. I can’t even have a recorded video of me played at German events.
​  The trouble started in earnest yesterday, when German police burst into a Berlin venue to disband our Palestine congress, which was hosted by the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 (DiEM25). Judge for yourselves what kind of society Germany is becoming if its police ban the sentiments below. ​ 
  Congratulations and heartfelt thanks for being here — despite the threats, despite the ironclad police outside this venue, despite the panoply of the German press, despite the German state, despite the German political system that demonizes you for being here.
​  “Why a Palestinian congress, Mr Varoufakis?” a German journalist asked me recently. Because, as Hanan Ashrawi once said, “we cannot rely on the silenced to tell us about their suffering.”​

​    Reiner Fuellmich, In 18 Minute Recording From Prison, Reveals Deep Infiltration, Intelligence Gathering, And Plot; Also Says Covid Empire Of Lies Crumbling
"There Will Be An Official Investigation Of The Plandemic."​

​  Meryl Nass MD,  Generating the "national will" to spend hundreds of billions and give up our civil and human rights on the altar of pandemic safety--here is how it was done. Here's the 25 year history of how this was foisted on us. And how the WHO has repeatedly failed upward over the past 20 years.

​  Spirulina Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Mortality: Study​ (Half an ounce of blur-green algae per day was life-saving.)
​  Hospitalized COVID-19 patients who took spirulina had a lower risk of death than those who did not, according to results of a randomized controlled trial recently published in Frontiers in Immunology.
​  Study participants took spirulina for six days. No deaths were recorded in the spirulina group, while 15 percent of those who only received standard treatment died.
​  “The overall results of the present study showed that a six-day course of Spirulina platensis plus the standard treatment of COVID-19 was superior in the recovery of patients compared to standard treatment alone,” the authors wrote.
​  The study was conducted at two Iranian hospitals, where 189 patients were randomized to take 15.2 grams of spirulina capsules alongside standard COVID-19 treatment or only receive standard treatment. Previous research showed that this dosage of spirulina would provide potent anti-inflammatory and antioxidative effects.

​  Steve Kirsch,  Expert validates survey analysis: vaccines ARE the main cause of chronic disease.
Confirmed: vaccines are a public health disaster because they are the #1 cause of chronic disease. When will the medical community admit their error?

​  Review: N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ): Friend or foe of cancer?
..Mounting evidence indicates that these vaccines, like many others, do not generate sterilizing immunity, leaving people vulnerable to recurrent infections. Additionally, it has been discovered that the mRNA vaccines inhibit essential immunological pathways, thus impairing early interferon signaling. Within the framework of COVID-19 vaccination, this inhibition ensures an appropriate spike protein synthesis and a reduced immune activation. Evidence is provided that adding 100 % of N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ) to the mRNA vaccine in a melanoma model stimulated cancer growth and metastasis, while non-modified mRNA vaccines induced opposite results, thus suggesting that COVID-19 mRNA vaccines could aid cancer development. Based on this compelling evidence, we suggest that future clinical trials for cancers or infectious diseases should not use mRNA vaccines with a 100 % m1Ψ modification, but rather ones with the lower percentage of m1Ψ modification to avoid immune suppression.​

​  From No Disease to Stage IV Colon Cancer in Four Months: A Case Report​  (​"Turbo-cancer, COVID-19 vaccination status not mentioned at all.)
​  Herein, we present the case of a 61-year-old female diagnosed with metastatic colorectal cancer merely four months following the commencement of glucocorticoid therapy for a recently diagnosed rheumatologic condition, despite a clear colorectal cancer screening colonoscopy conducted four months prior.​.. The patient tolerated the treatment well initially, with no significant adverse effects reported during the initial cycles of chemotherapy; however, she had a progression of disease and unfortunately passed away recently​.

​  Back to Dr. Nass,  WHO members must call for a true roll call vote to make the nations and their delegates accountable for their votes
The WHO has a sneaky method that allows for secret ballots and then for counting a secret ballot in another location. Moving ballots around. How convenient.

​  Dr. Nass, Tennessee considering two resolutions regarding the WHO. , One is fatally flawed
The resolution below is the one I favor and looks like the Louisiana bill, denying jurisdiction to 3 international organizations including the WHO.

​  Dr. Nass,  Rallies scheduled around the WHO votes in late May in NYC and Geneva, Switzerland
I and many others will be speaking in NYC. Friends from around the world will attend the events in Geneva

​Meryl Nass MD, The Pacific Rim Webinar last night has been uploaded--with Pierre Kory, Paul Marik, Katie Ashby-Koppens, Wei-Ching Lee and me

  Dr. Nass will be back in Rome again,  Rome, Italy: An international Conference on the WHO this Friday, and a meeting for lawyers on Saturday morning,  With many of your favorite speakers. Attend live or online. See you there!

Free Human (showing off some purple onions and a squash plant)

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